Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Mandatory sentencing – wouldn’t it be quicker and cheaper to replace the judicial system with panels of talkback radio hosts and tabloid columnists?

  2. C@t
    I think Lambies son is or was addicted to drugs. She obviously understands the issue better than most MPs.
    She’s playing a blinder so far.

  3. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 6:37 pm

    Regarding the Toby Green case, I think George Pell would like the AFL to hear his appeal too.

    Sf and other progressives

    Stick to your guns in fighting coal. Its defenders deceive too much. The reality is coal mining is now highly mechanised and creates less jobs than the alternative renewable power.’

    Direct jobs in the coal industry = 40,000.
    Indirect jobs, say .5 per direct job = 20,000.
    Coal royalties per annum, say $5 billion.
    Those royalties are used by state governments to fund jobs.
    @ say $100,000 a job = 10 jobs per million in royalites = 10, 000 jobs per billion = 50,000 jobs.
    Plus indirect jobs at .5 of the royalties jobs = 25,000 jobs.
    Total direct and indirect = 135,000 jobs.
    Employment associated with thermal coal generation.
    Plus employment related to a $40 billion in FEX earnings.

    IMO, just casually wiping all this off the table with a general statement that jobs in renewables will offset this is cavalier.

    Particularly when you are going to come off a $150,000 coal job.

    I support closing down the coal industry but I also support truth in policy serum. ATM those actually in the jobs are not buying SF or your viewpoint at all. Which is why we have the Coalition in power. Being ‘right’ on renewables is clearly not enough. The sort of patronising, condescending rubbish that accompanied the Adani Convoy was part of the problem – particularly when NONE of the Convoy riders stood to lose THEIR jobs as a consequence of the coal industry being closed.

    The siren call to others that they need to GAGF so that you can continue to enjoy the perquisites of a well-off inner urban lifestyle is just not cutting it.

  4. Fran Kelly is hosting tonight’s Qanda. Doesn’t the ABC have anyone else who can stand in for these programs when the regular host is absent? Truth be told I’d prefer Annabel Crabb.

    ABC Q&AVerified account@QandA
    10h10 hours ago
    Watch #QandA live from Melbourne with host @frankelly08 and panellists @ZedSeselja, Anne Aly, @Jordonsteele, @danielleiwood and Greg Sheridan. Tonight at 9.35pm AEST on @ABCTV and iview.

  5. Confessions

    Can’t be worse than Jones. I will watch. Jordan Steele a remarkable young politician.

    Edit: Pity they have Anne Aly on the same panel not another one.

  6. BB
    Is she having hyperbaric oxygen? Her disease isn’t classical for necrotising fasciitis. The kid from BH is one of my best friends nephew. Tragic case but necrotising fasciitis is frequently missed as a diagnosis until it’s too last. I’ve seen people go from playing golf in the morning to dead in twelve hours.

  7. I heard an unusual story tonight from a friend whose sister had seen dozens of dead kangaroos on a beach adjacent to what had been a wildfire.

    The roos were not burned but were all dead. Whether from the heat and/or from smoke inhalation no-one knew.

  8. Haven’t watched Q&A or Insiders since before the Election. Tonight’s host and panel doesn’t make me wantto watch tonight. Zed – is he one of those obnoxious right wing loudmouths who shouts down everyone else, or have I mixed him up with someone else?

  9. Julian Burnside
    @JulianBurnside

    What has happened to ABC journalistic standards when
    @leighsales doesn’t comment when boat people are called “illegals”?
    They don’t break ANY law by coming here as they do: but our dishonest politicians try to win votes by calling them illegal & treating them like criminals

    Mary Kostakidis
    @MaryKostakidis

    No I’m afraid it’s worse than that. It is Sales that is saying it.

  10. Confessions @ #355 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 6:59 pm

    Fran Kelly is hosting tonight’s Qanda. Doesn’t the ABC have anyone else who can stand in for these programs when the regular host is absent? Truth be told I’d prefer Annabel Crabb.

    ABC Q&AVerified account@QandA
    10h10 hours ago
    Watch #QandA live from Melbourne with host @frankelly08 and panellists @ZedSeselja, Anne Aly, @Jordonsteele, @danielleiwood and Greg Sheridan. Tonight at 9.35pm AEST on @ABCTV and iview.

    I’d prefer a cardboard box…

  11. Diogenes @ #351 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 6:55 pm

    C@t
    I think Lambies son is or was addicted to drugs. She obviously understands the issue better than most MPs.
    She’s playing a blinder so far.

    I agree 100%. I just wish Labor would join her in calling a spade a bloody shovel when it comes to the Morrison government’s games.

    Btw, I’ll see your necrotising fasciitis and raise you a necrotising arachnidism. 😀

  12. Diog, it wasn’t NF (thank God).

    But when I saw the black splotches under the skin of her foot (with the top half of her toe black) I started getting antsy with her, urging her strongly to persist with the hospital at Taree. Her Indoors got the message too, and was finally able to convince her to see a new GP, who hospitalized her immediately, and also arranged for the surgeon to consult.

    According to him she was operated on with days to spare. The one thing she had not shown was systemic illness. But sometimes it was hard to tell: she was so tired from severe lack of sleep and constant debilitating pain.

    The main thing about the incident was the indifference with which the medical system treated her. From GP (who refused to see her on an emergency basis, requiring her to book appointments days ahead) to Taree Hospital (who actually put a canula in her hand, ready for admission and I/V drugs, but then sent her home 10 hours later) they ignored her condition and palmed her off.

    I observed that Broken Hill Hospital is notorious for bullying staff and lousy management. As I found when I was preparing HI’s employment case 2016-2017, the industrial law reports are full of BH Hospital cases regarding unfairly treated, bullied and mobbed staff.

    Incidentally, many of the administrators who ran HI’s Local Health District, and the hospital she worked at have now found jobs at Northetn Beaches (privatized) hospital (which now belongs to a company registered in the Caymans) – considering who’s running it, no wonder it’s a disaster.

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Btw, I’ll see your necrotising fasciitis and raise you a necrotising arachnidism.
    __________________
    Jesus Christ C@t. What the fuck is wrong with you?

  14. nath @ #369 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 7:31 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Btw, I’ll see your necrotising fasciitis and raise you a necrotising arachnidism.
    __________________
    Jesus Christ C@t. What the fuck is wrong with you?

    Jeez, it was a light-hearted comment between 2 medically-trained people! No more than that. Get your knickers untwisted, nath.

  15. C@t used to work the poisons (and spider bite) phone line, nath.

    Me, I used to work in pathology. I’ve seen all sorts of things come in in jars. Makes for great dinner conversation.

  16. C@t:

    A woman at work today said she’d been bitten by a redback spider over the weekend. She didn’t seek medical attention at all, just powered on through the symptoms. Madness.

  17. Jeez, it was a light-hearted comment between 2 medically-trained people! No more than that. Get your knickers untwisted, nath.
    ___________
    Oh. A light hearted comment when Dio just said his best friends nephew died from it? what the actual fuck.

  18. This is sarcasm, but it could absolutely be genuine.

    David FrumVerified account@davidfrum
    20h20 hours ago
    “But WHY would you invite the Taliban to Camp David, of all places.”

    “We ran a credit check on them, and it seemed unlikely they could contribute usefully to the revenue stream at the Trump hotel.”

  19. nath @ #375 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    Jeez, it was a light-hearted comment between 2 medically-trained people! No more than that. Get your knickers untwisted, nath.
    ___________
    Oh. A light hearted comment when Dio just said his best friends nephew died from it? what the actual fuck.

    Why don’t we see if Diogenes was offended hey, instead of you being his moral guardian?

    If he thinks the comment was in poor taste, those things considered, then I apologise. But you know what? To me it just looks like you waiting to pounce. A-gain.

  20. C@tmomma says:
    If he thinks the comment was in poor taste, those things considered, then I apologise. But you know what? To me it just looks like you waiting to pounce. A-gain.
    _________________
    I posted on this story earlier in the day, it was very sad. I just find anything that touches on humour when it comes to the death of young people to be disgusting.

  21. Confessions @ #374 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    C@t:

    A woman at work today said she’d been bitten by a redback spider over the weekend. She didn’t seek medical attention at all, just powered on through the symptoms. Madness.

    A full on Redback bite is very, very painful! However, it tends to be a time-limited thing. How is she going now?

  22. nath @ #379 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    If he thinks the comment was in poor taste, those things considered, then I apologise. But you know what? To me it just looks like you waiting to pounce. A-gain.
    _________________
    I posted on this story earlier in the day, it was very sad. I just find anything that touches on humour when it comes to the death of young people to be disgusting.

    My comment was in NO way a reflection on the sad situation of the young man but a general comment on the condition compared to a similar one. But go ahead and conflate the two things, I can’t stop opportunistic behaviour.

  23. I’ve been bitten twice by redbacks. The worst that happened was I spent a day in bed.

    A neighbour once told me he’d been bitten while out camping. “Went back to my sleeping bag, woke up a couple of times to spew, went back to sleep.”

  24. I’d believe you C@t if you didn’t have a long history of saying weirdly random offensive shit that usually results from a conversation that you are trying to shoehorn some personal information or knowledge into. So that its all about you.

  25. abc730Verified account@abc730
    15m15 minutes ago
    “What we want to do is get people off welfare and into work and what we have found in the [welfare card] trials we have been doing so far is this has been helping people actually get into jobs and better manage their own affairs.” – Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP. #abc730

    Says no independent evaluation of the trials ever that I’ve seen.

  26. Confessions @ #393 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 8:06 pm

    abc730Verified account@abc730
    15m15 minutes ago
    “What we want to do is get people off welfare and into work and what we have found in the [welfare card] trials we have been doing so far is this has been helping people actually get into jobs and better manage their own affairs.” – Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP. #abc730

    Says no independent evaluation of the trials ever that I’ve seen.

    Which will be picked up and pointed out by someone from Labor very soon…..

  27. nath says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 8:02 pm
    I’d believe you C@t if you didn’t have a long history of saying weirdly random offensive shit that usually results from a conversation that you are trying to shoehorn some personal information or knowledge into. So that its all about you.
    _______________________
    As an independent observer I would like to say I think this comment is 100% correct nath.

  28. nath @ #383 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 7:52 pm

    Of course I’m not surprised that you’d be an authority on poison, seeing you spew it so often.

    I thought nice nath would last a fraction of a second. nasty nath just can’t help himself, can he? I mean, what did you get out of just saying that to me, except maybe a back rub from your brothers-in-arms who also seem to take great pleasure from saying puerile things to me?

    But then, that’s what you specialise in on this blog, isn’t it? Trying to take down Labor politicians and the people that support Labor. It’s so obvious as to be ineffective, nath. I would have thought you’d have got that memo by now. But you seem to be one of those, ‘nothing succeeds like excess’ types. When it’s just tedious.

    And that last comment about inserting myself into conversations? Projection much? Now, you may not have noticed in your indignation conflagration but Dio had addressed a comment to me. I just added a couple of words about something else we could talk to each other about. I didn’t know the Morality Police would be lying in wait for me ready to pounce. 🙄

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 8:12 pm
    nath @ #383 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 7:52 pm
    _______________________________
    I’m sorry c@t I thought nath was correct.

    Why don’t you tell us all about your encounter with Hawkie? There was some confusion there I believe. Lighten the mood a little.

  30. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 8:14 pm
    I see nath is being obnoxious again.

    And his lap dog LVT comes yapping in support.

    __________________________

    Why this has become an increasingly shit place to visit. No doubt those two little arseholes put off others too.

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