Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. I came across this quote today, that I think sums up the Labor v Greens ‘debate’ that goes on endlessly here. Those who think labor needs to support coal mining and illegal treatment of refugees for political expediency vrs those of us who don’t.

    “Cowardice asks the question, ‘Is it safe?’ Expediency asks the question, ‘Is it politic?’ But conscience asks the question, ‘Is it right?’ And there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular but because conscience tells one it is right.” Martin Luther King

    The greens are labor’s conscience and that is why some laborites hate the greens so much. Most Greens want a labor government, but just want them to be better.

    at present albo is asking “”is it safe?”. Queensland Labor are asking “Is it politic”and both show why we need the Greens.

  2. From last thread – Jackie Lambie has sold out for a mess of pottage.

    Regarding the latest poll, if we can rely on the numbers, I would have expected it to be a bit more favourable to the Coalition. This is partly because I thought that the “honeymoon” continues and Labor is making no impact. In general, nothing has happened so far to change many votes one way or the other, certainly not for people who get all their news from commercial radio/TV and the Daily Rupert.

  3. Greens motion to establish a federal integrity commission in the senate tomorrow

    A year ago Lib, Labor voted against, Nats didn’t even bother turning up

    Centre Alliance voted for

    Seems like it would be welcomed by many voters

  4. I hope you are right about coal Frednk, but it Qld labor and the LNP working their hardest to get the Galilee basin opened up and federal labor stating that they back coal mining. The tax and royalty breaks being offered, subsidies for infrastructure and security, extinguishment of native title and disregard for state and federal environmental laws and processes to get this up should be the subject of a federal ICAC. The mine will proceed, but within 15 years it will either close or other mines will close. it will lower the price of coal and result in more GHG emissions than had it not opened. The taxpayer will not see a cent from adani and be left with a contaminated site when adani quit the mine. This will be labor’s legacy.

  5. The Greens are Labor’s conscience? Possibly. But Labor can achieve nothing from Opposition. It needs to persuade people who vote “Liberal” to vote for them. The Greens don’t have to. They can remain pure.

    For myself, I always regarded boats and borders as non-problems. I am not at all concerned that a few people might be cheating on welfare, trivial compared to massive and endemic tax evasion, wage theft and super theft by corporations. Boats, borders and welfare cheating are things a grown up country can deal with, within the law and with common decency, without moral panic and without demonising victims. There are far more pressing problems, the climate for a start, plus the fact that the economy is being hollowed out to leave us dependent upon extractive industries, especially those that extract stuff the world is phasing out because it harms the planet.

    Unfortunately it appears that Australia is not a grown up country.

  6. sustainable future

    Been around the bush several time. The pantomime continues. Galilee if it went ahead would deliver poor quality coal into a shrinking market. Not hard to see what is going to happen. Enjoy your pantomime.

  7. sustainable future says:
    Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 10:28 pm

    …..The greens are labor’s conscience…

    What a complete load of fucking rubbish. This is a contemptible claim. An utterly contemptible claim. The Greens keep no-one’s conscience, least of all their own.

    Labor do best when they are able to ignore the Greens, who are an implacably anti-Labor gizmo. They ride shotgun for the Liberals.

    Labor will only revive its fortunes when they are able to confront the fallacies and the lies trafficked by the Greens.

  8. The spectacle of a Green invoking Martin Luther King is about as nauseating as it’s possible for self-gratifying political vanity to be. Fuck the Greens.

  9. ‘Floating Atolls’

    Characterizing the relationship of coral atolls to sea level as “floating on the ocean surface” is disingenuous and bizzare and seems designed to provoke outrage. Of course they don’t float in any normal sense of the word.


    there is a blog entry from a marine scientist which explains the various factors involved in growth of coral atolls (e.g. if the water’s too cold or too hot they don’t grow fast enough to stay above the water and will “sink” under a rising ocean)

  10. nath:

    The Greens are Labor’s conscience, guiding them down the correct path. This is plainly obvious.

    Clearly you think brevity is the soul of wit! Play on!

  11. The “Liberals” and the actual “Lib-kin” (One Nation and other RWNJ’s) are the enemy, they’re the ones changing Australia into a place we’ll hardly recognise in a few years, hardly recognise now.

    The Greens have, in my opinion, made some bad calls in the last decade but and play this stupid same-same game, but they are not the enemy.

    Anyway, I’m sure that convinces no one.

    P.S. just saw a Government ad for the tax cuts (on SBS). I suppose that the Government is worried that no one notices. That plus they need another distraction.

  12. The Greens have not been very successful at reforming the ALP, but the Greens will continue to help. The Greens offer a kind of treatment program for Labor, weening them off certain policies/drugs with encouragement, kindness and yes a little criticism from time to time. It is a long road back, but the Earth is slow and the Greens are patient.

  13. Absolutely critical in the Greens agenda to help Labor is LEAN. It is a pro-Greens pressure group inside the Victorian ALP:

    LEAN, an internal ALP pro-Green pressure group, has successfully lobbied the Federal Australian Labor Party to support increasing the renewable energy target to 50 percent by 2030.
    Along with both the state and federal Greens, LEAN opposes the Adani coal mine and at a state level they support a range of Green agendas

  14. Nath –

    why don’t you try to convince us of the virtues of free markets, of small Government, of low wages and low taxes, of withdrawing welfare, of bucaneering capitalism and whatever else it is you believe in. You’ll surely find that much more fun than pretending to be a Green and your posts would be far more interesting.

  15. Steve777
    Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 11:15 pm
    Nath –
    why don’t you try to convince us of the virtues of free markets, of small Government, of low wages and low taxes, of withdrawing welfare, of bucaneering capitalism and whatever else it is you believe in. You’ll surely find that much more fun than pretending to be a Green and your posts would be far more interesting.
    Pretty hard to do since I am a social democrat. Although, I haven’t seen many ALP parliamentarians denouncing free markets, capitalism and lower taxes in a few decades. The decision of Rudd/Gillard government to follow the Howard agenda of cutting the single parent payment indicates that they are also in to withdrawing welfare too.

  16. OC
    “Me: What are you interests outside medicine
    Candidate: musicals”
    Total dealbreaker for me. Same as if they turned up smoking or wearing dark sunglasses. Musicals are the lowest form of art.

    On selecting a basic surgical trainee, this intern is a friend of a friend. Very heavily tattooed none offensive. All reports that she is a very good doctor. Never met her myself. I met some people who were concerned about her mainly because they thought patients might be put off. I said totally ignore the skin. What do you think?

  17. Today’s Greens policy is ALP policy ten or fifteen years later , so yeah, I think it’s fair to describe the Greens as the conscience of the ALP.

  18. Trump proves he’s a better dealbreaker than dealmaker — this time, with the Taliban

    “Deals are my art form,” President Trump proclaimed in his ghostwritten book, “The Art of the Deal.” “Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals, preferably big deals.” It’s true that Trump likes making deals. He’s just not very good at it. In fact, he may be the worst dealmaker ever to occupy the Oval Office. The abrupt disintegration of his accord with the Taliban provides the latest evidence that he’s too impetuous and ignorant to be a successful negotiator.

    It’s appalling that Trump would have even considered hosting Taliban leaders just days before the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks plotted by their ally, Osama bin Laden.

  19. If you ever want to listen to an anti Green diatribe, go to one of the LEAN founders. They set LEAN up because they believe the Greens haven’t been effective.

  20. Fox News Rips Trump For Secret Summit With Taliban Before 9/11

    Chris Wallace asks Secretary of State Mike Pompeo why President Trump planned to meet with Taliban leaders three days before 9/11.

    Wallace asked, “Who thought it was a good idea for the President Of The United States to meet with Taliban leaders who have the blood of thousands of Americans on their hands just three days before 9/11?”

    Pompeo tried to duck and dodge with the gibberish answer of, “You know, we know the history of Camp David. We reflected on that as we’ve been thinking about doing this for months. President Trump ultimately made the decision.

  21. C@t, Dennis Atkins is a former Murdoch shill, suffering relevance deprivation syndrome, reduced to watching SkyFoxNews for a drip of info – where they were wetting their pants over Albo’s ‘ratings tank’. The Murdoch SmearMachine ™ is sputtering into early KillAlbo mode.

  22. Wow! I just heard that Trump is trying to kill Biden’s POTUS campaign stone dead by extorting the Ukraine! Apparently, Hunter Biden, Joe’s son has had dealings with the Ukraine and the Trump Administration is trying to get the Ukraine to give evidence against Hunter Biden and Joe Biden as VP when he was dealing with the Ukraine/Russia issue! He is using ~$250 Million in Military Aid to the Ukraine to force them to do it!

    Apparently there was a story in The Washington Post about it last week.

  23. It would be nice to pop in & find the Greenies on this blog doing analysis of Coalition policies instead of this persistent infatuation with the internal machinations of the ALP.

  24. @AusIndiMedia
    So potentially you can be on Newstart, be drug tested, placed on a welfare card and receive a RoboDebt.

    Haven’t the jobless been punished enough, or does the government still have something else up their sleeve?

  25. Denise Shrivell
    If @JacquiLambie is saying she’s seen evidence that the cashless welfare #indue card is working – then she’s been fed biased & cherry picked evidence to swing her vote

  26. “Given the state of the economy at the moment, something like a social housing infrastructure scheme would be a useful way of helping a lot of people in bad housing circumstances, and it would also be very good at kickstarting the residential construction sector, which is in a fairly deep hole at the moment,” Professor Phibbs said.

    “Seeing Josh Frydenberg and the Prime Minster talk up the economy reminds me of the Monty Python skit with the parrot – ‘It’s not dead, it’s resting’. Seriously pal, it’s dead.”

  27. The facts and figures confirm Australia’s economy is currently managed by one of the world’s least competent administrations: the Morrison Government.

    The number of people unemployed at the end of June was above 710,000 for the first time in 13 months. The jobless rate was 5.24%, which ranked 19th in the OECD. That was the worst ranking since records have been kept.,13088#.XXVxc1YmmFU.twitter

  28. As soon as the conservatives talk about ‘reform’, look out.

    Oh @Breakfastnews are calling punishing and discriminating against the ‘poor’ as “Social Welfare Reform”

    Asking those in trial areas for Cashless Debit card to give feedback. Rare person in regional area will comment due to repurcussions from Centrelink/Job Providers ARGH!

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Jacqui Lambie would move to stop the government’s industrial relations bill immediately if “bloody meathead” John Setka quit Victoria’s peak construction union says David Crowe.
    Catlin Fitzsimmons examines the effect that soaring house prices is having is having on the bottom 40% income cohort.
    Angus Thompson writes about how the headmaster of a prestigious NSW school has taken the extraordinary step of naming two victims of historic sexual assaults to galvanise a network of alumni into exposing the “full extent” of past abuse at the institution.
    Scott Morrison wants the return of parliament this week to put a harsh spotlight on the contrast between a troubled Labor party and a “predictable” Coalition with policies based on values and beliefs says Jennifer Hewett.
    Tony Walker advises Morrison to avoid being star-struck on his Trump visit.
    Judith Ireland reports that Labor frontbencher Michelle Rowland concedes her party “didn’t get it right” with religious voters at the recent federal election: the ALP’s plans to increase access to abortion caused “genuine anxiety” for some people of faith.
    The great Liberal Party rank-and-file rebuke this weekend at how Premier Gladys Berejiklian handled the abortion reform legislation turned out a real non-event.
    The market is coping with the shift to renewables and gas, but governments need to stay out of its way says the Grattan Institute. It says that if the NSW government provides clear policies to improve transmission and reduce emissions, then the state will cope comfortably with the closure of Liddell, and we will be able to look forward to a future powered by affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy.
    Defence is secretly scoping out ways to modernise is submarine shipyard in Adelaide amid the growing likelihood it will have to keep deep maintenance jobs in South Australia.
    So Sarah Henderson has seen of Mr Mirabella for selection as a senator.
    Elizabeth Knight tells us how former bank executive Rob Ferguson has given the big four banks a serve, saying they are a protect3d species.
    Many Melbourne private schools are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on advertising to attract students, especially girls writes Maxine Heffernan.
    Max Koslowski reports that an expanded cashless welfare card trial set to pass Parliament in days. Let’s hope there is proper examination of who will gain out of the delivery method.
    And Amy Remeikis reports that Tony Burke has given the strongest indication yet that Labor plans to push back against Scott Morrison’s “compassionate conservative” agenda on welfare, as the government flags a national rollout of cashless debit cards.
    Rupert Murdoch’s $7 billion soufflé, a billion-dollar retirement village ruse by Lendlease, Pfizer’s Bottom of the Canal scheme, William Hill’s $55 million black hole. Michael West tenders his Dirty Dozen Top Australian audit fails in evidence to the parliamentary inquiry into the Big Four auditors.
    Fifty young people with disabilities move into nursing homes every week because there is nowhere else for them to go writes Bronwyn Morkham. She says they become trapped there.
    Sheep and cattle farmer Rob lee says that we should accept climate change and move forward.
    Nicole Hemmer says that with Trump and Brexit, economic chickens are coming home to roost.
    Boris Johnson’s off to Dublin amid fears of more resignations.
    International politics lecturer Ben Wellings writes that there is a dog’s Brexit as Johnson’s missteps are about to send weary voters to another election as the EU divorce gets ugly.
    Oh dear ! Boeing has suspended load testing of its new widebody 777X aircraft as media reports said a cargo door failed in a ground stress test.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe doesn’t fancy Boris’s chances.

    Jim Pavlidis prepares Morrison for his US trip.

    From Matt Golding.

    Pat Campbell with two of our favourites.

    Sean Leahy takes us to the Queensland bushfires.

    From Alan Moir.

    A typically disgraceful effort from Zanetti. In The Australian of course!

    From the US

  30. Good Morning

    So Labor’s embrace of the coal huggers has seen them go backwards in the 2PP amongst the engaged 15% of voters according to Essential.

    Way to go Labor lose the base to build on.

    Yes I am serious. The voters are volatile and looking for alternatives. When Bill Shorten campaigned seriously on Medicare he scared the beejusus out of the LNP.

    Now with this lets just rollover Labor party more are moving away from Labor.
    Its going to be interesting when either Warren or Sanders wins the Democratic Nomination.
    I say that with the very real soft support for Biden. Who is crashing and burning despite the media boosting.

    They are seriously looking at Warren to support now as Biden’s promise to donors links with his climate change town hall fundraiser disaster. Thats not a gaffe. Thats a very transparent looking after your mates. Its going to cost him. The base is in no mood for the corporate donor model of election.

    If you don’t get this you don’t get what is going to turn out the base and what is going to unite the party voters and even gain some Trump voters who also reject the corporate swamp.

  31. @dreuphooniuman tweets

    @giddyupbill @YaThinkN @BreakfastNews My dear old Dad used to say; “that bastard is earning enough to vote liberal now. The are quick to forget where they came from & how they got there”. He would be appalled that a miner on 250K+, would ask a Labor leader, prior to election for a tax cut when avg wage is 50K

  32. I have seen empirical evidence that The Greens’ polling results are always overstated because in the interregnum between elections people like to virtue signal that they support Greens’ issues but when it comes to putting pencil to paper in the election a pretty consistent percentage of those poll respondents don’t actually follow through.

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