Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. WWP

    Yeah, yeah.

    ‘Labor Soft on Paedophiles’.

    Exactly as I said no good angle for them on this. But that is the purpose of a wedge.

  2. “Have a look at the wages of coal miners. Way above the average.
    Rich workers who have become Liberal voters should not be deciding Labor policy.”

    hear, hear.

    That should be tattooed to the forehead of every labor pollie, so they are reminded whenever cabinet meets.

  3. WWP
    Do governments always have the advantage in this situation?
    I would have thought so, in general.

    I think a successful wedge requires media assistance, so no i don’t think Labor Govts ever get away with them.

  4. sf
    So now rich workers are bad.
    Does that mean that the Greens prefer poor workers such as au pairs?
    Is this the preferred Greens model?
    Noble poverty?
    Current Greens policies, hatched in the leafy inner well-heeled urbs, are aimed at destroying around 150,000 direct and indirect jobs in the coal industry alone.
    Is the main Greens message to these very real human beings, ‘Fuck off. You’re sacked!’
    Because that was how the Adani Convoy was, rightfully, interpreted to genuine, real and ordinary Aussies north of the NSW border.
    Labor tried to nuance this.
    Fuck that, they said, voting for luminaries such as Christensen in droves.

  5. Sadly, the Greens National Integrity Commission Bill passed by the Senate is unconstitutional – as it commits the Commonwealth to expenditure, such as the Whistleblower Special Account and a couple of Commissioners.


  6. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 4:03 pm

    Seeing as though the Greens party got their federal ICAC bill up in the senate today, aren’t they more of a ‘party of Govt’ than Labor …?

    Come back to me if it actually gets debated in the HOR, that is where government plays.

    It would take a Green to believe a senate stunt is more just because Labor voted ya instead of putting it out of its misery

  7. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 5:51 pm

    Sadly, the Greens National Integrity Commission Bill passed by the Senate is unconstitutional…’

    lol

  8. Simon Katich @ #286 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:15 pm

    It aint the questions that matter. It is the way Sales prizes apart and responds to the answers that will count.

    Leighfor will just have a list of questions, which she will basically run through with a bit of token follow through here and there, just to prove that she’s a journalist to the uninterested.

    Morrison will be under zero pressure, so not worth watching.

  9. Whilst Rex is the ultra marathon runner – 10+ years of bagging Labor every day, every night, good times, bad times.

    Like a Capstan cigarette, he Never Varys.

  10. lizzie @ #290 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    Tony Burke carefully explains why Labor may support the mandatory sentencing of pedophiles (because the alternative is that there will be no punishment as judhes don’t like mandatory sentences), and Karvelas answers wtte “so you’ll just roll over again”.

    This is the media gotcha mentality which then translates into the current narrative that Labor “always votes with the Coalition”, and is being repeated all over Twitter and by the Greens.

    There is no room for anything but black and white in our childish political atmosphere.

    I think the only way Labor will ever get any clear air is to start calling smart aleck journos like PK, as good as she is in other ways, on their juvenile schtick like that. Because the Coalition are only going to keep bowling up their carefully-crafted wedges if they can count on the journalists to cut the legs out from mature responses from Labor.

  11. sustainable future says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 5:42 pm

    “Have a look at the wages of coal miners. Way above the average.
    Rich workers who have become Liberal voters should not be deciding Labor policy.”

    hear, hear.

    That should be tattooed to the forehead of every labor pollie, so they are reminded whenever cabinet meets.
    —————–
    But what is rich?

    A person owning a few shares or a second house or is on $100k a year is not necessarily rich, sure they are not poor but the ALP needs to be careful not to confuse the financially successful with the rich.

    Take franking credits, sure the wealthy benefit but the wealthy were not going to be the main losers from that policy because they tend to invest for capital growth and the compounding effects from income streams which franking credits are only a small part.

  12. Meanwhile sprocket is the ultimate party man. He would have made a very effective Commissar or Gauleiter. Countless years towing the party line from HQ with no thoughts of his own.

  13. Re C@t @5:14.

    Ms Lambie is mistakenly assuming that the Government wants to help the unemployed get off drugs, and it intends to do this via “tough love”.

    That is not what they are doing. What they want to do is punish people for being on benefits, presumeably in the hope that they’ll go away, get families to support them, hustle, go to jail, die or work for a pittance for someone who steals their wages. That’s much easier than actually managing the economy so that it doesn’t push 5+% of people out of work.

  14. C@tmomma @ #315 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:56 pm

    lizzie @ #290 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    Tony Burke carefully explains why Labor may support the mandatory sentencing of pedophiles (because the alternative is that there will be no punishment as judhes don’t like mandatory sentences), and Karvelas answers wtte “so you’ll just roll over again”.

    This is the media gotcha mentality which then translates into the current narrative that Labor “always votes with the Coalition”, and is being repeated all over Twitter and by the Greens.

    There is no room for anything but black and white in our childish political atmosphere.

    I think the only way Labor will ever get any clear air is to start calling smart aleck journos like PK, as good as she is in other ways, on their juvenile schtick like that. Because the Coalition are only going to keep bowling up their carefully-crafted wedges if they can count on the journalists to cut the legs out from mature responses from Labor.

    I have never, ever understood why Labor just meekly accepts the more egregious bullshit that comes out of the mouths of many journalists, as if they have had it ingrained in them in media training to never challenge a journalist’s statements, no matter how ridiculous.

    It’s not as though journalists as a whole have much a positive reputation in Australia anyway, particularly the political variety.

  15. Speaking of drugs and unemployment, in an earlier life I somehow got onto the dole.

    I remember the dole was $35 a week, and a ‘deal’ containing an ounce of grass was $25. It was a great incentive to get a job!

  16. taylormade says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 6:00 pm
    Jane Caro. Highly skilled at what exactly ? Maybe at whinging whenever her beloved ALP is not in power.

    _________________________________

    Clearly not on the taxpayer’s drip via ludicrously generous contracts like you.

  17. Steve777 @ #318 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:58 pm

    Re C@t @5:14.

    Ms Lambie is mistakenly assuming that the Government wants to help the unemployed get off drugs, and it intends to do this via “tough love”.

    That is not what they are doing. What they want to do is punish people for being on benefits, presumeably in the hope that they’ll go away, get families to support them, hustle, go to jail, die or work for a pittance for someone who steals their wages. That’s much easier than actually managing the economy so that it doesn’t push 5+% of people out of work.

    Which is what Jacqui Lambie calls them out on quite specifically.

  18. Taylormade
    Regardless of what one thinks of Jane Caro but she does make a point about drug use. Using drugs isn’t a barrier to employment for most people unless there are other issues and the Governments purposed welfare card wont fix those problems.

  19. TPOF @ #326 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 6:05 pm

    taylormade says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 6:00 pm
    Jane Caro. Highly skilled at what exactly ? Maybe at whinging whenever her beloved ALP is not in power.

    _________________________________

    Clearly not on the taxpayer’s drip via ludicrously generous contracts like you.

    And obviously not aware of Jane Caro’s stellar career in the Advertising Industry (a lot more successful than Scott Morrison could ever have hoped to be), nor her successful book writing career, post the other stuff. In between which she has been a longstanding advocate of Public Education.

    But taylormade (is that some juvenile allusion to Liberals ranking of each other based upon the quality of their tailor made suits?), seems to only understand advancement via the old school tie method of getting anywhere in life.

  20. I don’t think it is about punishment because the Liberals really just want the unemployed to get a job despite the fact they ignore the realities of the job market and that some people are unemployable, in some cases thanks to government policy.

  21. sprocket_ @ #319 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:58 pm

    C@t, same same with Katherine Murphy who loves repeating the ‘bitch and fold’ trope.

    Because journalists love shorthand and this is one of the only vaguely original lines they have come up with in the last 10 years or so. So, without a thought as to the damage repeating it ad nauseum will cause Labor they will keep on doing it. Not to mention the damage it is doing to our democracy as it undermines the Opposition while the government is allowed to get away with blue murder.

  22. Mexicanbeemer @ #330 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 6:11 pm

    I disagree it is about punishment because the Liberals really just want the unemployed to get a job despite the fact they ignore the realities of the job market and that some people are unemployable, in some cases thanks to government policy.

    I know, right!?!

    Just imagine the chaos that would ensue if every unemployed person in Australia, with their drug addictions and mental health problems, got a job! For some people, no amount of, having a job = they straighten out, wishful thinking from Morrison, is going to change that fact.

  23. ‘BK says:
    Monday, September 9, 2019 at 6:12 pm

    Toby Greene is free to play in the Giants’ semi-final against the Lions. He has been fined $7500.’

    Sick joke.

  24. Johnson reckons he would rather be dead in a ditch than go to Brussels and ask for an extension.

    There would be quite a few, including among the Tories, who would probably agree with Johnson on the ditch option.

    Johnson was, after all, rather keen on the ditch carp trope.

  25. adrian @ #324 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 6:02 pm

    C@tmomma @ #315 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:56 pm

    lizzie @ #290 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    Tony Burke carefully explains why Labor may support the mandatory sentencing of pedophiles (because the alternative is that there will be no punishment as judhes don’t like mandatory sentences), and Karvelas answers wtte “so you’ll just roll over again”.

    This is the media gotcha mentality which then translates into the current narrative that Labor “always votes with the Coalition”, and is being repeated all over Twitter and by the Greens.

    There is no room for anything but black and white in our childish political atmosphere.

    I think the only way Labor will ever get any clear air is to start calling smart aleck journos like PK, as good as she is in other ways, on their juvenile schtick like that. Because the Coalition are only going to keep bowling up their carefully-crafted wedges if they can count on the journalists to cut the legs out from mature responses from Labor.

    I have never, ever understood why Labor just meekly accepts the more egregious bullshit that comes out of the mouths of many journalists, as if they have had it ingrained in them in media training to never challenge a journalist’s statements, no matter how ridiculous.

    It’s not as though journalists as a whole have much a positive reputation in Australia anyway, particularly the political variety.

    Said wtte many times.
    You’ll see it tonight, Morrison will play Sales like a fiddle. The last time Albo was on he appeared like a year 11 school boy being interviewed by the Headmistress over something he may or may not have done. As opposrd to Bill Shorten who always came across as someone auditioning for a community theatre..

  26. So far this parliament sitting going well.

    Senate passes ICAC Bill.

    Religious Exemptions to Discrimination gone.
    Drug testing Newstart gone.
    Indue Card delayed two years.

  27. Regarding the Toby Green case, I think George Pell would like the AFL to hear his appeal too.

    Sf and other progressives

    Stick to your guns in fighting coal. Its defenders deceive too much. The reality is coal mining is now highly mechanised and creates less jobs than the alternative renewable power. No genuine workers advocate should prefer the former to the latter. See
    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mark_Diesendorf/publication/264438816_Comparison_of_employment_potential_of_the_coal_and_wind_power_industries/links/575ca68508ae414b8e4c1e00/Comparison-of-employment-potential-of-the-coal-and-wind-power-industries.pdf

  28. One more thing. Kudos to Labor and Albanese for voting for the Greens Icac bill today. We will never solve climate change, or many other national problems, until federal government corporate corruption is reigned in.

  29. Socrates @ #345 Monday, September 9th, 2019 – 6:37 pm

    Regarding the Toby Green case, I think George Pell would like the AFL to hear his appeal too.

    Sf and other progressives

    Stick to your guns in fighting coal. Its defenders deceive too much. The reality is coal mining is now highly mechanised and creates less jobs than the alternative renewable power. No genuine workers advocate should prefer the former to the latter. See
    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mark_Diesendorf/publication/264438816_Comparison_of_employment_potential_of_the_coal_and_wind_power_industries/links/575ca68508ae414b8e4c1e00/Comparison-of-employment-potential-of-the-coal-and-wind-power-industries.pdf

    I have not seen a more asinine comment for quite a while.

    Lift your game!

  30. Looks like poor regional health outcomes in NSW ARE about to become political.

    4 Corners tonight, 8.30.

    Key case examined is a young boy in Broken Hill, dead from necrotising fasciitis (sepsis), brought on originally by a simple infected toenail. Repeated presentations to BH Hospital were ignored. “Too busy”.

    So similar to our neighbour’s case last week (infected little toenail with a break compounding) that I felt sick reading the program synopsis.

    Our neighbour has been operated on. She lost the toe and 25% of the skin of her foot due to gangrene-like symptoms. She will be in hospital for another week. Her surgeon has told her she is lucky to be alive. Another few days without treatment and she’d have been history.

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