Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. “Another point worth making is that all these economic “laws” –”

    I’m actually doubtful Economics is any kind of real Science. The “laws” are more like “guidelines” that are sometimes not all that useful.

  2. Is it just me or is almost any Lib MP using one coaler talking point or another in the media over recent days that has had a run or ten on PB recently? Like burning more coal is going to be way cheaper and protect the environment.

    The NSW Lib energy minister apparently in the Tele and on 2GB, but raised at Reneweconomy

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-energy-minister-sees-no-competitor-to-coal-for-decades-to-come-53664/

    “On the one hand, he tells the paper’s state political editor, his government is“committed and firmly focused on protecting the environment” and meeting its stated target of net zero emissions by 2050.

    On the other, Kean wants to keep the lights on and drive down power prices, and doesn’t want to “place ideology before people”.

    “The people of NSW want to protect the environment but not at any cost to their hip pocket,’’ he said.”

  3. Quoll says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 6:29 pm
    “It would be a ludicrous statement to say the climate is not changing. I absolutely believe that man has some effect on that. I state as a categorical fact that there’s nothing we can do in Aust that can have any effect on it whatsoever,” @Barnaby_Joyce tells @PatsKarvelas

    Seems like Barnacle has been working on his talking points with some PB coalers, or is in fact just one of them, probably operating under a pseudonym starting with B.

    Joyce is mistaken in his claim that there’s nothing we can do in Australia to avert climate change. There are many things that can be done. Labor is doing them. Labor will do much more. The alternative prescriptions are either self-defeating or ineffectual, or are a pretence.

    Those who don’t actually want Labor to succeed, of course, will always hope for failure. They will do their level best to foil Labor, to insult and obstruct Labor, to undermine and defeat the only party with even the slightest hope or intention of retarding and reversing climate change.

    For the sake of their own political prosperity, they pray for failure. They are a sham.

  4. Morrison won’t turf her because it would upset China too much.

    Wouldn’t have anything to do with her being the difference between majority and minority rule, of course.

    But if what you say is true, then Morrison not firing a possible Chinese agent – because it would upset her spymasters – is a pretty serious development.

  5. dogs above. Watching the Drum on IR. FFS if this is the crap that small business advocates its a wonder any of their members actually manage to run a business. Work Choices on steroids on the way people. 🙁

  6. I remember there being questions about Liu’s possible allegiance to China coming out in the campaign, but IIRC she became embroiled in some corflute scandal involving the AEC and the China allegiance thing went nowhere.

  7. Barnaby “… I state as a categorical fact that there’s nothing we can do in Aust that can have any effect on it [the climate] whatsoever,”

    That would be an argument for Australia not participating in the invasion of Iraq, even it it were a good idea. Or WW1 and 2 for that matter.

    If the climate could be fixed by deploying troops, dispatching warships and bombing someone, especially with our “great” and powerful “friend”, the Coalition would be saying “where do we sign up?”

  8. And as per report

    The British government will appeal against the Scottish appeal court’s decision, which also contradicts a decision in Johnson’s favour by senior English judges last week, at the supreme court.

    The supreme court has already scheduled an emergency hearing on both the Scottish and English cases for 17 September, alongside a third challenge brought in the courts in Belfast

  9. Lots of sarcasm floating about?

    Mark Jacka @themarkjacka
    ·
    17m
    To be fair to Gladys Liu, it’s not as if she gave a 99 year leased port to the Chinese, or took $880,000p/yr job to do nothing for the Chinese, or accepted 8x gold Rolexes from the Chinese, or sold our farms to the Chinese, or opening the Shenua coalmine for the Chinese.
    #auspol

  10. The panic before QT.

    @MsRebeccaRobins
    7h

    #auspol FFS just got a wickr message MSM have been warned off Gladys Liu seems the PMO have sent the word will the ALP go for blood today take down Taylor and Liu hearing calls and texts and Emails frantic. Liu wasn’t approved to speak she’s a loose cannon already

  11. A number of colourful stories floating around about Guangzhou Gladys, some clearly need fact checking but the ABC have picked up on this….

    “In the wake of the Sam Dastyari affair the year before, Mr Turnbull’s office had developed a standard procedure to request the guest list for fundraisers or major organised events where the PM was invited.

    About three or four weeks before the February 18 “meet and greet” in Box Hill, Mr Turnbull’s office asked for a guestlist from Ms Banks’s office.

    It duly arrived on an A4 sheet of paper with about 30 names from the Chinese community.

    This list was then forwarded to ASIO for vetting.

    The advice from the Director-General was that Mr Turnbull should not attend the meeting.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-11/guests-on-gladys-liu-list-for-malcolm-turnbull-event-asio/11502564

  12. “This will blow over when parliament rises.”

    Yes it will blow over – she’s a “Liberal”. No blowing over had it been a Labor member, however.

  13. The number one issue of any Liberal PM is to intervene to protect Craig Kelly from the liberal branches in his own electorate. It is a higher priority than climate change.

  14. Returned from the trailer-park soiree only to find the poster who refers to his wife/partner as ‘Her Indoors’ is still carrying on like a two-bob watch. I was forced to turn down the volume of my hearing aids due to the squarks of myriad sulphur-crested cockatoos. They’re stunning birds but have the propensity to deposit their nitrogenous waste, urea, salt, and water everywhere. I’ll leave it at that.

  15. For those of you in Sydney, here is a function coming up worth considering…

    SPEAKER: GLADYS LIU (Member for Chisholm)

    DATE: Wednesday 25 September 2019 *Book from 11 Sept 2019**

    TIME: 5.30 for 6pm LIGHT REFRESHMENTS NOTE CHANGE OF DATE

    **ASSOCIATE MEMBERS & ONE GUEST ONLY**

    TOPIC: How The Coalition Won Chisholm

    VENUE: The Sydney Institute, Level 40, Governor Phillip Tower, 1 Farrer Place, Sydney

  16. lizzie @ #1400 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    https://theconversation.com/why-gladys-liu-must-answer-to-parliament-about-alleged-links-to-the-chinese-government-123339?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton

    But she is perhaps most admired in the Liberal Party for her fundraising ability. Her claim to be “one of the most effective fundraisers in the Victorian division” of the party is almost certainly true.

    However, her fundraising came under a cloud last month when it was reported by the Herald Sun that the Liberal Party had been forced to return A$300,000 to dodgy donors that she had brought to an event in 2015. (Liu has denied that any funds were returned to donors).

    Then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull refused to have dinner with the donors because he had been warned off by our intelligence services due to “security concerns”. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and opposition leader Matthew Guy did likewise.

    It must have been exceptionally smelly for Guy to not appear after “Lobster with a Mobster”.

  17. briefly @ #1398 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 6:55 pm

    W….I think the plaudits should go to actors that actually accomplish that which is in the public interest. If you want to see fewer GHG emissions from coal, combustion has to be reduced. The question is not how to reduce extraction. The question is how to reduce combustion.

    Work on that. Give an actual shit about the environment. Do things that deliver the desired and intended result. At the very least, do not make things worse than they already are.

    Just for goodness sake don’t threaten my coal dividends!

  18. Decision of the Scottish Court of Appeal – they probably wear gay attire and wigs as well..

    ‘As I understand it the Inner House of the Court of Session has granted declarator that the advice and subsequent prorgation were unlawful, but has not granted reduction of the Order in Council or interdict; instead it’s going to leave these issues to the UK Supreme Court.’

  19. Sprocket

    I think all PB should attend this event.

    Let’s share the love with the Member for Chisholm

    I’ve heard anecdotally from friends in Chisholm that they are none too pleased that this MP is in Sydney and not South Box Hill.

    (Assuming the event is still going ahead and the honourable MP has not quit or being booted)

  20. sprocket_ @ #1431 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 7:58 pm

    Decision of the Scottish Court of Appeal – they probably wear gay attire and wigs as well..

    ‘As I understand it the Inner House of the Court of Session has granted declarator that the advice and subsequent prorgation were unlawful, but has not granted reduction of the Order in Council or interdict; instead it’s going to leave these issues to the UK Supreme Court.’

    They’ll probably work it out by October 14 when the Queen gives her speech!

  21. Speaking of birds, up here in the Goldie hinterland we have a most incredible array of them. It really makes life worth living. My favourite is the eastern rosella. They’re far more shy than lorikeets, less colourful, but there’s just something about them.

  22. WTF? Abbott obviously finding the transition to retirement a challenge. Here he is apparently at the 3rd annual Budapest Demographic Summit launch focusing on raising the fertility rates in central and eastern Europe, and doing his best #unwantedIvanka impersonation.

    :large

  23. PO….I have not questioned your sincerity or imputed any ulterior motives on your part during the course of this discussion. The imputation that I could have some financial interest at stake is basically troll-worthy. You should retract it.

  24. The imputation that I could have some financial interest at stake is basically troll-worthy.

    I think she is not saying that you personally have a financial interest in coal. Rather, she is saying that you defend other people’s financial interests in coal no matter how harmful these are to Australia’s national interests and to the planet’s survival.

  25. Silicon Valley appears to have blown up Milo Yiannopoulos’s business model.

    The disgraced right-wing troll is complaining that the major social media companies have effectively cut off his alt-right audience — and crushed his ability to make a decent living.

    The former Breitbart tech writer shared the complaints on Telegram, a messaging app where some alt-right allies have set up shop after getting the boot by larger tech platforms. Yiannopoulos was banned from Twitter in 2016 for directing racist abuse at the comedian Leslie Jones, losing nearly 400,000 followers. He was banned from Facebook in May.

    “I spent years growing and developing and investing in my fan base, and they just took it away in a flash,” wrote Yiannopoulos, who’s previously rubbed shoulders with neo-Nazis and white nationalists. “It’s nice to have a little private chat with my gold star homies but I can’t make a career out of a handful of people like that. I can’t put food on the table this way.”

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/59n99q/milo-yiannopoulos-says-hes-broke

    It all started to go bad for him after he appeared on Real Time a couple years ago, faced genuine scrutiny of his views and positions, and ended up having his ass handed to him on a plate by panelists way smarter and more clued in than him.

    It’s been downhill ever since, underscoring my view that the best counter to these racist deplorables is to give them their moment in the sun. Because more often than not it is their undoing.

  26. Nicholas says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 8:15 pm
    The imputation that I could have some financial interest at stake is basically troll-worthy.

    I think she is not saying that you personally have a financial interest in coal. Rather, she is saying that you defend other people’s financial interests in coal ….

    I’ve done no such thing.

    I have been at pains to point out that the political campaign raised by the Greens is misguided and counter-effective; that the issue with coal is in the first place reducing its use as a fuel – reducing its rate of combustion. There are several instances where I’ve noted the price of thermal coal is falling and have marked my approval of this; and there are plenty of observations where the focus is on the development and application of renewables.

    PO’s comments are troll-worthy. Yours are no better.

    If you give an actual shit about the environment and climate change, then you’d focus your attention where it can make an actual difference.

  27. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 7:45 pm

    _________________________
    Love the racialist attack on Ms Liu. If you have to resort to racism you’ve already lost the argument you sad little individual.

  28. Lars Von Trier @ #1444 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 8:25 pm

    sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 7:45 pm

    _________________________
    Love the racialist attack on Ms Liu. If you have to resort to racism you’ve already lost the argument you sad little individual.

    So, your position is that Liu is not accountable to the Australian Polity because she’s of Chinese origin. The racist here is you!

  29. Well Mr GG, those comments from sprocket are one step removed from “go back to where you came from”. People who have been on the receiving end of Aussie racism know this is exactly what was meant.

    Sad that it’s come to this.

  30. I verily think that Labor’s loss could be a godsend, there being dark clouds on the economy, due to Morrison’s inflexibility as regards a surplus. Labor avoided recession due to pink bats, school halls. Admittedly, the rollout had flaws, but many jobs were saved, recession negatived. Karma, I think, is grand. There’s no doubt about it, Morrison has the gift of the gab, but he’s not exactly a lateral thinker.

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