Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. “Love the racialist attack on Ms Liu. If you have to resort to racism you’ve already lost the argument you sad little individual.”

    If this:

    “A number of colourful stories floating around about Guangzhou Gladys,”

    is what you are referring to about sprocket, i suspect if may be a reference to this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/11/gladys-liu-proud-australian-questions-raised-ties-with-china

    “A political storm has erupted over Liu’s alleged links to the Chinese Communist party after the ABC reported that a Chinese government online record listed her name as a council member of the Guangdong provincial chapter of the China Overseas Exchange Association between 2003 and 2015.”

    Would make more sense if sprocket had used the term “Guangdong Gladys” i think..

    And really, it seems a reference to her Chinese political connections rather than a racial slur.

  2. So far my comments on Gladys Liu have been..

    ‘Spotted at the footy ‘- photo with Morrison at MCG

    ‘A number of colourful stories floating around about Guangzhou Gladys, some clearly need fact checking but the ABC have picked up on this…’. – purposefully not mentioning the content of the stories, other than the public domain ABC one.

    Perhaps the cheeky “Guangzhou Gladys”, a play on the Liberal/Murdoch sledge of Shanghai Sam, has got LVT wound up?

    And a suggestion that we should all attend Gerard Henderson’s glorifying of the Chisholm Dirty Tricks of Liu.

  3. Popped in for a moment to see if there was anything interesting. Saw the Larsehole and the Gnatshit are still at it.

    off again. PB waste of time and data due to them.

  4. Poor GG, be easy on him nath, he’s taking baby steps back after the sad demise of Littlefinger in May. He’s keeping the flame alive for the restoration.

  5. “Perhaps the cheeky “Guangzhou Gladys”, a play on the Liberal/Murdoch sledge of Shanghai Sam, has got LVT wound up?”

    History suggests that LvT/ESJ..whatever it is….. has the apparent purpose in life is to dazzle the world with its pompous expressions of self importance on the internet.

  6. sprocket_ @ #1458 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 8:42 pm

    So far my comments on Gladys Liu have been..

    ‘Spotted at the footy ‘- photo with Morrison at MCG

    ‘A number of colourful stories floating around about Guangzhou Gladys, some clearly need fact checking but the ABC have picked up on this…’. – purposefully not mentioning the content of the stories, other than the public domain ABC one.

    Perhaps the cheeky “Guangzhou Gladys”, a play on the Liberal/Murdoch sledge of Shanghai Sam, has got LVT wound up?

    And a suggestion that we should all attend Gerard Henderson’s glorifying of the Chisholm Dirty Tricks of Liu.

    Coming soon is the ASIO advice to Turnbull not to attend a Dinner organised by Gladys.

    Extra feature: Where did that $3 million come from?

  7. Gladys Davis,

    Her Indoors likes to be called that, seeing as she’s out most of the time. Get it?

    Love your deflection, but you have still to establish your PB bona fides.

    You’ve tried suggesting I was a dementia patient, and that I was lying outright. You’ve also played the most pathetic card of all: apparently you’re “deeply offended” that I should question your history here. All this based on your recollection of who was posting what back in the noughties.

    Yet you can’t remember the name you reckon you used then, using the tired old “I can’t recall” excuse, or show us any posts at all that might corroborate your claim to be a PB Old Timer.

    Of course, if you can’t do even that – a link to a legacy post would do it – then your whole story falls apart, and with it your bullshit personna, leaving us with the conclusion that you’re just what you appear to be: a 2019 blow-in, a newly arrived troll, a crude mischief-maker, a person without a past masquerading as a PB veteran.

    God only knows why you’d bother. PB debates hardly decide the fate of nations. They get most things wrong. But, it seems, bother you have, for your own incomprehensible reasons. I’d actually be fascinated to know why you think trolling here is worth the effort.

  8. Lars Von Trier:

    [‘Love the racialist attack on Ms Liu. If you have to resort to racism you’ve already lost the argument you sad little individual.’]

    I really don’t the criticism of Liu is racially motivated.

  9. ‘Love the racialist attack on Ms Liu. If you have to resort to racism you’ve already lost the argument you sad little individual.’

    Is that REALLY the best Lars can do?

    When the “racist” card is played this early, Lui’s critics MUST be onto something.

    Geez, the “racist” tag is just too obvious.

  10. BW “Butler was correct. Declarations of emergency are made by governments under the relevant legislation.”

    What nonsense. If that were true Butler simply would have said she was not voting for it and gave your exxuse as the reason. She even could have castigated the greens for the “stunt”.

    Truth is Butler was deflecting because she had no idea what position her party was taking. And the reason for that is well known.

  11. I love science. It always challenges our preconceptions.

    ohn Gilmore
    @2phat1JG
    ·
    1h
    Breaking News: Paleontologists have found T Rex was not the largest dinosaur. A new discovery of a larger dinosaur skeleton, named the T Rump shows a larger animal with tiny hands, a huge mouth, a minute brain and a giant asshole. It laid waste to everything around it. Deja Vu?

  12. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 8:52 pm
    ‘Love the racialist attack on Ms Liu. If you have to resort to racism you’ve already lost the argument you sad little individual.’

    Is that REALLY the best Lars can do?

    When the “racist” card is played this early, Lui’s critics MUST be onto something.

    Geez, the “racist” tag is just too obvious.
    ________________________
    Silly old feller – do you really want to go down this line ? (and recalling your attacks on poor mavis), I can certainly recall you make some very off colour comments to dovif back in the day…

  13. Lars Von Trier @ #1473 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 8:52 pm
    ‘Love the racialist attack on Ms Liu. If you have to resort to racism you’ve already lost the argument you sad little individual.’

    Is that REALLY the best Lars can do?

    When the “racist” card is played this early, Lui’s critics MUST be onto something.

    Geez, the “racist” tag is just too obvious.
    ________________________
    Silly old feller – do you really want to go down this line ? (and recalling your attacks on poor mavis), I can certainly recall you make some very off colour comments to dovif back in the day…

    Back in the day when you were ESJ?

  14. BB:

    [‘Love your deflection, but you have still to establish your PB bona fides.’]

    Yes, dear – yawn! I’m bored with your machinations, the ANU having a lot to answer for. I do hope you didn’t practice criminal law? If you like, I’ve only posted for six months. Is that enough for you? And, to coin a phrase of yours…: no, I won’t be so crass as to suggest you bag your head.

  15. Mavis Davis (formerly known as Gladys Davis) @ #1475 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    BB:

    [‘Love your deflection, but you have still to establish your PB bona fides.’]

    Yes, dear – yawn! I’m bored with your machinations, the ANU having a lot to answer for. I do hope you didn’t practice criminal law? If you like, I’ve only posted for six months. Is that enough for you? And, to coin a phrase of yours…: no, I won’t be so crass as to suggest you bag your head.

    It’s time for you to stop being a dickhead and apologise. Then, the Blog can move on.

    Up to you.

  16. BB:

    [‘Is that REALLY the best Lars can do?’]

    Please stop putting down relatively new posters. I mean to say, I was reasonably kind to you when you first started posting. Time, methinks, for a senior’s nap for you – nurse, it might have to be matron! And, do me a favour: please refrain from the upper case.

  17. GG:

    [‘I suppose living in a caravan park means you never have to say you’re sorry.’]

    True, it’s hard at times living in a trailer park, aware that Springer might spring up. But I’m okay with that. One thing I’ll tell you, we don’t do sorry.

  18. Rubber BanditsVerified account@Rubberbandits
    41m41 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage crashing a plane while trying to fly a Brexit banner in 2010 was the clear sign from the Gods that ye all ignored.

    :large

  19. Mavis Davis @ #1482 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    GG:

    [‘I suppose living in a caravan park means you never have to say you’re sorry.’]

    True, it’s hard at times living in a trailer park, aware that Springer might spring up. But I’m okay with that. One thing I’ll tell you, we don’t do sorry.

    But, you will do lies and character assassination just because you can?

  20. GG:

    [‘But, you will do lies and character assassination just because you can?’]

    Talk about overkill. Who would’ve thought that the two biggest right-wing Catholic zealots on this site would’ve joined forces? Wake up to yourselves, your man convicted paeophile Pell at the heart of the matter.

  21. Re GG @8:25PM.

    That headline is way over the top, bordering on incitement.

    But that’s the Right for you. In Right World, the judicial system is there to allow them engage in expensive duels, QCs at 10 paces. Its other role is to defend them from the unruly elements in the lower orders. As long as it sticks to its job, in their view, it is beyond question or reproach. But if it goes against them, or, worse, gets one of their own (see Pell), the gloves are off.

  22. Mavis Davis @ #1485 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:42 pm

    GG:

    [‘But, you will do lies and character assassination just because you can?’]

    Talk about overkill. Who would’ve thought that the two biggest right-wing Catholic zealots on this site would’ve joined forces? Wake up to yourselves, your man convicted paeophile Pell at the heart of the matter.

    Lots of blah blah.

    But as tomorrow is RUOK day, are you OK?

  23. Speaking of prisoner Pell, there’s no indication yet as to whether he’s filed an appeal, the as-yet-undisclosed section of the Royal Commission to be released once his appeal – if he appeals – is determined, the rumour is that that per se could result in further charges.

  24. briefly @ #1438 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    PO….I have not questioned your sincerity or imputed any ulterior motives on your part during the course of this discussion. The imputation that I could have some financial interest at stake is basically troll-worthy. You should retract it.

    It wasn’t meant to be personal, briefly. Labor makes money from coal-related donations, even if you do not.

  25. “Mavis” wrote:

    I’ve only posted for six months. Is that enough for you?

    So Mavis finally admits it. All that talk of being a PB stalwart, going back over a decade etc. etc. was so much unsupported horseshit.

    That wasn’t so hard, was it, “Mavis”? Anyone can pick up a smattering of blog history and make like a stalwart veteran, dropping names, forgetting names, making shit up.

    BTW Lars, assuming a female name in order to label criticism as “sexist” is ’round about the low level we’d expect from he/she/it “Mavis”.

  26. GG:

    [‘But as tomorrow is RUOK day, are you OK?’]

    I’m fine. More importantly, are you and BB okay? I think you are, as you’re true to form. I’m not sure, though, about dear BB – he seems to be losing his marbles.

  27. There we go again. Alleging dementia. Wild allegations. Vicioys trolling. What a fine person you are. Breaking all your own rules.

    None of this “sore loser” stuff was necessary “Mavis”. But I guess that’s what you’re here for.

  28. Mavis Davis @ #1492 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:56 pm

    GG:

    [‘But as tomorrow is RUOK day, are you OK?’]

    I’m fine. More importantly, are you and BB okay? I think you are, as you’re true to form. I’m not sure, though, about dear BB – he seems to be losing his marbles.

    Mavis Davis @ #1492 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:56 pm

    GG:

    [‘But as tomorrow is RUOK day, are you OK?’]

    I’m fine. More importantly, are you and BB okay? I think you are, as you’re true to form. I’m not sure, though, about dear BB – he seems to be losing his marbles.

    I’m fine. We’ve got weddings, babies and everything happening.

    I’m sure tomorrow will be another “Ground Hog day” where the usual suspects lecture and hector about Climate Change and their purity. But, that’s OK. It just means that lots of small furry animals survive another day unmolested.

  29. BB:

    You really are a sirry irriot. Unlike you, I wouldn’t go back to the PB archive to prove my bona fides.
    Your dislike of me emanates from my trenchant criticism of your man, the convicted paedophile Pell. You’re using this as subterfuge. I refuse to tell you to bag your head, dear.

  30. The 7.30 Report had the good people of Samford whining about the poor download speed from their MTM NBN connections. It’s hard to work up much sympathy when they live in Dutton’s seat of Dickson. A lot of them have consistently voted for shitty broadband!

  31. I wasn’t here in the old days, but I imagine it wasn’t that different to now. Frank Calabrese, the finigans, and another who I can’t remember. If you’re about Frank, could you please remind me of the third?

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