As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).
Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).
The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.
“I’m no expert in the area, but I’m told cotton production takes at a lot of water, at the expense of other competing interests. I can’t take it any further. The MD basin is, it seems, as complex as Brexit.’”
Actually…its not really rocket science. Take all the water out of the top end of a river system and there is none for the environment or users downstream. Needs to be managed flexibly and with competing interest balanced, with attention to the FACT there will be drought times every now and again.
Lib / Nats are very poor managers in this context.
And actually…Brexit isn’t that complex. They will either crash out no-deal, or cancel Brexit. The whole thing is the consequence of idiot RW nuttbaggery and lies gone unexpectedly ballistic.
fess
I havent seen that WP ABC poll hit the aggregators yet. But the dem nominee poll has. Klobuchar surging to 2pts. You can still get her at 100-1…. but be quick.
Her polling is improving while the others (Yang, Buttigieg, ORourke etc) are fading. And they are still at 10-1. Amy is a bolter. Get on the train!
Further to my comment on how regionalised Queensland is, this link from 2015 showed the state electorate landscape.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/qld/qldmaps2015index.shtml
Sorry I made a woopsie in my earlier comment with what I said about Townsville as it is Cairns that is surrounded as I mentioned.
Britain does seem to be in a dreadful mess, not helped by having a lying buffoon for PM. Crash out or cancel Brexit. Either will bring huge problems.
Mex
Thanks. It reminds me that it seemed to me that the Coalition was far more nimble when it came to tailoring candidates/packages to electorates than was Labor.
SK:
LOL!
I’m sensing from listening to podcasts and watching media interviews that most people are backing Biden to win the nomination. Klobuchar could make a great VP candidate though.
They are not managers. They are somewhere between a commodity to be bought and a rabblerouser raising a posse.
This is illustrative of Trump’s appeal:
Every industry claims to be the backbone of the economy. Every industry claims that additional regulation or tax on them will collapse the economy and cost xxx thousand jobs, as if they cared about jobs. All self-serving bullshit.
Seems quite a few college educated white women still like a bad boy. Some things dont change.
it is certainly what corporatist dems and the republicans want
The prevailing sense seems to be that Biden is the best placed, but still less likely to be nominated than not- ie. the race is still wide open, as you’d expect with such a large field and with so long to go.
There’s a lot of good VP choices in there too, but anyone who stays in the race too long might cruel their chances in that department.
imacca:
Thanks for the elucidation. I thought it was more complex than that, but it’s not my area of expertise, other than to suggest that Boerwar seems to have more than a casual interest – ie, cotton.
Whoops!
I’m shocked, SHOCKED, to discover that there are foreign influences in the Liberal Party.
Those poor little petals. Must be so hard for them. They appear so tough and rugged on the outside but weak piss on the inside.
What about all the car workers that the Coalition cut off? Or the call centre or drafters that had their jobs offshored? Or the manufacturers that lost out to cheap poorly regulated overseas imports? Or the scientists, ecologists and national parks rangers that got sacked? Jobs gone to automation? The delivery drivers with no job security? People losing out to rorted underpaid migrants on visas? Engineers asked to work free overtime? Casual workers losing their penalty rates.
Look, I get the need to have a policy to protect regional communities by encouraging investment and diversity in their economies. But please spare me the poor coal miner stuff. They have been on a good wicket (thanks to Unions and the ALP) for a long time. They are working in a dying industry and they should be part of the restructure solution, not running to the first politician who sells them a snake oil remedy.
Welcome back, BB. I do trust you’re going to behave to hereinbefore form?
To clarify, I understand briefly’s argument that the Greens are closer to the Liberals than to Labor. This is perspective ignores the dimension of actual policy and instead concerns cultural/community attitudes and impressions of party branding and reputation, emotions and loyalties, that sort of thing.
Now if you start from the premise that the ALP is the only possible vehicle for a better society under this parliamentary system, then in a sense it’s possible to construct an argument that any political orientation, regardless of its actual ideological character, is in effect weakening the one of only two opposing poles, and thereby strengthening the other.
The position that the ALP occupies in briefly’s worldview is of this character, it is the left by definition. Nothing can possibly be to the left of Labor, not even Karl Marx himself, because there is nothing else but Libs. The ALP occupies sacred emotional space and deviation on the left is something perverse; the Libs oppose Labor but the Greens “defile” it.
I agree that the split in the left is problematic. I would prefer the Greens to be redundant. But the situation is what it is. I’d be interested in knowing whether briefly regards ONP and PUP are Labor-kin in the same sense as the Greens are Lib-kin. Perhaps but also perhaps not, because the Greens are a fundamentally more serious party; they are less likely to evaporate out of personal incompetence or corruption. In any case, they do attack Labor on Labor’s weakest front: policies against which a compelling moral or evidence-case can be made. That’s difficult for Labor, but it’s also basically shooting the messenger.
Warren seems to be there or there about with biden and bernie. Her biggest risk would be if biden dropped out early, or perhaps just forgot he was running.
a bernie / abrams (if he could convince her to run) or
Warren / Beto
Would be interesting tickets.
imacca @ #951 Tuesday, September 10th, 2019 – 9:23 pm
But … but … cotton!
Surely we must use all the environmental flows to defend Australia’s second most important industry (second after coal of course). An industry that employs millions of people, and on which entire states depend! And those poor cotton farmers – who will think of them? They are clearly too inbred and stupid to ever be able to do anything else. Oh the humanity!
What an asylum this place has become recently 🙁
WeWantPaul @ #961 Tuesday, September 10th, 2019 – 7:40 pm
A few Never Trump former Republican strategists have said that if they were running Trump’s campaign they’d be down on their knees begging and praying the Democrats nominate Sanders.
Please no.
WWP
has Abrams completely ruled out a run for Georgia Senate?
But BB, shouldn’t we be assuming that Gladys is innocent until she’s exhausted all avenues of appeal?
Welcome back, BB. I do trust you’re going to behave to hereinbefore form?
Still need you to prove your PB antecedents Mavis, the ones you bragged about so loudly.
I proved mine: September 8, 2007.
Until then, eff off.
caf:
At this early point in the running, Warren is the only serious challenger to Biden. I agree there’s a long way to go yet, and we’ll see how the primary unfolds over the next 7 months or so.
Well, listening to ABC radio this morning, it was pretty clear that we should be ditching permanent plantings such as almond plantations in favour of opportunistic crops such as rice and cotton….
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, September 10, 2019 at 9:56 pm
But BB, shouldn’t we be assuming that Gladys is innocent until she’s exhausted all avenues of appeal?
__________________________
Occasionally zoomsters’ nitpicking works for good. 🙂
Steve777
Abbott obviously thinks there exists an export market for self-serving bullshit. Roving ambassador.
Leadership: dealing with the exponential growth of the amount received in franking credits.
Roll out more recipients of the Indue card.
Leadership: climate change and rising seawater levels and its devastation for our closest neighbours.
Dig more holes in ths ground.
Leadership: an empty inland river system
Run for cover as you throw some more money in the direction of an honest political representative.
Leadership: congestion in cities.
More tunnels
Leadership: climate change
Cut down all the trees.
Leadership: just doesn’t exist
Test the the poor for drugs and self regulation for corporations.
zoomster @ #976 Tuesday, September 10th, 2019 – 9:58 pm
Absolutely! Makes perfect sense. Next time it rains we’ll just … oh, wait a minute 🙁
FWIW, I checked, 538 has the WP ABC pollster as A+ rated and as such weighted very heavily in their aggregate. They do, however, adjust it with a +1% to Trump.
You were all waiting to hear this…. my seeded almonds and apricots have finally flowered. It has been a long wait. Now…. when should I expect fruit?
I heard Rick Wilson say that, but he explicitly wants a republican democrat, or a democrat that does nothing at all, he projects that desire onto middle america, maybe he is right.
I don’t know, last interview with her i heard was as I was driving in New Zealand from crooked media, she said something like ‘these two projects’ – a voter registration effort and something else – were what she had decided was her best contribution.
Gladys Liu has every opportunity to clarify her position re. acting as an agent of the Chinese government.
I hope she floors her accusers with her response.
It should be quite a simple process.
Simon Katich:
I feel you’re in for a serve, cobber.
Anyway, I feel yet another interesting post is in the mix.
He wants a Democrat candidate who can beat Trump. He’s hardly alone on that front.
History shows us that the Greens often drag Labor, kicking and screaming, to where they need to be.
Take marriage equality.
This had been a Greens policy for years but, as recently as 2012, a private members bill from a Labor backbencher got only 28% approval in the lower house with both Gillard and Swan voting against it…The Greens cop a lot of flak as being job-destroying populist loonies, but it’s informative that, over time, others come to agree with what they have been proposing all along…If nothing else, the Greens serve as a reminder of the conscience that the two main parties have chosen to ignore.
https://theaimn.com/labor-needs-greens/
briefly
“Queensland thermal coal contributes 0.18% of global GHGs. The campaign against coal in Queensland by the Greens is not, by definition, about the environment. ”
You realise that voting Labor contributes only 0.00000006% to the vote. That means your vote is not, by definition, about the outcome of the election.
It also means nothing is ever about the environment because everything about the environment is small effects.
Yep, if you want to know what Labor’s policies will be in 2034, read the current Greens’ policies.
Nicholas
says:
Tuesday, September 10, 2019 at 10:14 pm
Yep, if you want to know what Labor’s policies will be in 2034, read the current Greens’ policies.
_______________________________
The Greens act as the Intelligentsia of the Left. ALP crudity is directed and shaped by Greens policies eventually. The ALP are the donkey, the Greens are the man leading the donkey to do its chores.
watermelon….there are all-sorts of Libs. The ON-Libs are disaffected and have reactionary impulses. They focus their anxiety on cultural outsiders. They run a flag up for angry ‘up-yours’ voters.
Voters at this juncture in the early part of the 21st century are beset with anxieties…anxiety that arises because of cultural change, because of political dysfunction, because of anxiety about the environment/climate change; because economics seems to have failed; because technology seems to have delivered more complexity and exploitation, not less; because the order seems stale and irrational.
Most assuredly, the 20th century is over and a lot of voters don’t like it. They wish for the past or, if not, at least to find a way to escape the contradictions of the present.
The political results include a desire to tear things down – to tear down the parties, to disown the political system, to retreat into one cult or another, to take refuge in escape or acrimony or both. I think the political order is becoming psychotic. Everything is open to manipulation and deceit. Political belief/ideology itself has been turned into a commodity by Murdoch.
The Greens are a part of this. They defile the authors and custodians of social justice and egalitarian hopes. They make defence of the environment less possible. They enable the repression of working people. They do not intend to, perhaps. But they are agents of contradiction. Like ON, they are escapist and rejectionist. They just have different coloured t-shirts.
The claim by the Greens that they exercise some sort of moral authority is pure vanity. It is an insult as well. They have no moral authority. They betray the values to which they purport to adhere.
BB:
[‘It should be quite a simple process.’]
In the law, processes you’re pressing are never as easy you portend. Maybe an LLB from the ANU are cheap?
C’mon Mavis, if you want to prove what a long term, decades old poster you are here at PB, here’s your chance.
You made an accusation that I was a blow-in, a newbie, and that – in your accumulated PB Wisdom – you couldn’t recall my posting here in 2007.
Which would mean YOU were posting here then.
Well, here’s the proof I was around here in 2007:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2007/09/28/morgan-labor-primary-vote-at-54-per-cent/comment-page-5/#comment-44171
So, where’s yours, big gal? Let’s see a post from “Mavis Davis” in 2007, or any post by one of your sock-puppet names from that time, like you’ve been mouthing off about for months.
Just one link is all we need.
Or else shut the fuck up.
Bushfire Bill @ #964 Tuesday, September 10th, 2019 – 9:43 pm
Our very own Tokyo Rose! So, Beijing Gladys.
Biden`s previous 2 runs at the Democratic nomination have ended with gaffs resulting in a collapse in his campaign. His gaffs have been repeated this time, so there it is likely that the same will happen again. If Biden gets the nomination, there is a high chance that he would have a campaign killing gaff and loose, consequently nominating him would likely be politically suicidal.
If Warren gets ahead of Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by Sanders dropping out and endorsing her, she would be a very serious contender. Able to get the Sanders voters (someone like Biden would go down like a metaphorical lead balloon with them) and also a wider range of Democrats.
Harris is likely to be a serious contender, if she survives Iowa and New Hampshire, as she has a good chance of doing well in states with a high proportion of African-American voters, using Biden`s history to keep his vote down. This is particularly the case if Booker drops out and endorses her.
“Shenzen Gladys” actually, but the sentiment is spot on.
Hurry up Mavis. We all want to see how genuine you are.
How does Gladys Liu expect us to believe this:
And it looks like it’s Guandong Gladys.
Confessions @ #985 Tuesday, September 10th, 2019 – 8:08 pm
On Real Time With Bill Maher episode of February 26, 2016, Wilson was one of the panelists. They were discussing the Repubs blocking Obama’s nomination for the Supreme Court. Wilson though this was not only a brilliant strategy, but hilarious as well. I wouldn’t trust him giving advice to Democrats any more than I’d trust Andrew Bolt giving advice to Labor.
Just like Stalin was an ally against the Nazis, but never a friend of the West, Wilson is an ally against Trump but will never be a friend of the Democrats.
He does not want a Democratic POTUS, he wants Trump ousted. If The Republicans rid themselves of Trump and Trumpism, Wilson will go back to his old job advising the Repubs on how to eradicate the Dems.
And it looks like it’s Guandong Gladys.
You’re absolutely correct. “Guandong Gladys”.
Perfect!
briefly is so close to the truth but mistakes the symptom for the cause. The Greens are not responsible for the giant vacuum opened up in politics by the capture of the ALP by its reactionary Right. Where Greens and Labor policies differ it is always because Labor’s policies are closer to the Liberals’. Of course briefly’s hostility toward the Greens is not based on the merits of policy but on theit very existence; the inherent illegitimacy of any non-Labor party other than the Liberal Party. That is why he finds it impossible to communicate constructively on the basis of policy specifics; they simply don’t matter.