Some particularly interesting post-election research has emerged in the shape of a paper from Nicholas Biddle at the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This draws from the centre’s regular online panel surveys on social attitudes, which encompasses a question on voting intention for reasons unrelated to prediction of election results. The study compares results for 1692 respondents who completed both its pre- and post-election surveys, which were respectively conducted from April 8 to 26 (encompassing the start of the campaign on April 11) and June 3 to 17 (commencing a fortnight after the election). Respondents were excluded altogether if they were either ineligible to vote or failed to answer the voting intention question.
The results are, to a point, consistent with the possibility that pollsters were confounded by a last minute shift to the Coalition, particularly among those who had earlier been in the “others” column. The changes can be summarised as follows, keeping in mind that a “don’t know” response for the April survey was at 2.9%, and 6.5% in the June survey said they did not vote. Since the disparity leaves a net 3.6% of the total vote unaccounted for, the shifts identified below will err on the low side.
The Coalition vote increased an estimated 2.6% from the time of the April survey, suggesting the polls were right to be recording them at around 38% at that time, if not later. However, no movement at all was recorded in the Labor vote, suggesting they were always about four points short of the 37% most polls were crediting them with. The exception here was Ipsos, which had Labor at 33% or 34% in all four of the polls from the start of the year. The Greens fell very slightly, suggesting a poll rounding to whole numbers should have had them at 11% early in the campaign. Newspoll consistently had it at 9%, Ipsos at 13% or 14%, and Essential fluctuated between 9% and 12%.
The biggest move was the 5.9% drop in support for “others”, although a fair bit of this wound up in the “did not vote” column. Even so, it can conservatively be said that pollsters in April should have been rating “others” at around four points higher than their actual election result of 15%, when they were actually coming in only one point higher. This three point gap is reflected in the size of the overestimation of support for Labor.
The results also point to a remarkably high degree of churn — an estimated 28.5% did not stick with the voting intention expressed in April, albeit that a little more than a fifth of this subset did so by not voting at all. The sub-sample of vote changers is small, but it offers little to suggest voters shifted from Labor to the Coalition in particularly large numbers. The Coalition recorded the lowest rate of defection, although the difference with Labor was not statistically significant (I presume it’s normal for major party supporters to be more constant than minor). Conversely, 49.4% of those who left the “others” column went to the Coalition (which comes with a 9% margin of error), and most of the remainder did not vote.
The survey also features statistical analysis to determine the demographic characteristics of vote changers. These find that older voters were generally less likely to be vote changers, and that young vote changers tended not to do so in favour of the Coalition, presumably switching for the most part between Labor and the Greens. Also particularly unlikely to budge were Coalition voters who lived in areas of socio-economic advantage. Those at the other end of this scale, regardless of party support, were most volatile.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly Essential Research survey, which is still yet to resume its voting intention series but will do so soon. A question on the anticipated impact of government policies over the next three years produces encouraging numbers for the government, with 41% positive and 23% negative. A question on racist sentiments finds 36% agreeing that Australia is a racist country, and 50% saying it is less racist than it was in the past. Breakdowns record no significant differences between those of migrant and non-migrant backgrounds, although the former may include too many of British origin for the results to be particularly revealing.
A question on political interest finds only 15% professing no interest in federal politics, with 53% saying they follow it closely or “enough to know what’s happening”. A big question though is whether polling has gone astray because too many such people are included in their samples. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1075 respondents drawn from an online panel.
I have heard there are large numbers of very well paid people doing very little and only frustrating the changes needed. Not that I trust Marshall to do it properly, but isnt an external shake up of SAHealth needed?
Boerwar @ #241 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 5:42 pm
The list of subjects about which you do not have the slightest clue is getting too long to keep up with!
Rex Douglas @ #225 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 5:18 pm
Yes, we know what yours will be. So why keep creating a rut in the blog about it? Do you honestly believe that moaning and groaning away on a blog, day in, day out, reiterating your well-known point of view, will actually change one vote? I doubt it.
Player One @ #250 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:02 pm
You’re the one that demanded all my wealth. Now you’ve got it and good luck! No dissembling or backsliding. Next time you’ll be more careful about what you wish for!
Maybe you can feed them some coal!
Greensborough Growler @ #254 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:07 pm
Send your wealth by direct deposit.
Send your kids by steam train.
Greensborough Growler @ #236 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 5:36 pm
Apparently, in Boris World, he won the vote to have an election and today is Day 1 of the election campaign!
Interesting to note the 2 guests’ identities. Co-conspirators in busting the global world order.
C@tmomma @ #256 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:10 pm
What if they held an election and no one participated.
I feel like I’ve passed Rexology 101,201 and 301. I get it now. I’ve graduated and am now dedicated to defeating the Lib-kin as well as the Lib-Libs.
P1,
BW may admit to being unknowledgable on some topics, but at least it stops him from posting absolute drivel like this:
This has always been the case in our energy markets, but is becoming more frequent because we often have too much peak generation, but not enough baseload generation**
Player One @ #255 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:08 pm
I don’t have to do nothing anymore.
You handle your own logistics, comrade.
Andy Murray @ #259 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:13 pm
Read the comment denoted by the asterisks.
Greensborough Growler @ #260 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:14 pm
Fine. Just send your wealth.
I will trust in god to provide a means for the kids to get here.
Player One @ #262 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:16 pm
My wealth was my kids? You own them, now. You deal with the details.
SK
There have been lots of external reviews. Parasites who walk around with folders and organise meetings with each other cling to their jobs like grim death because no one else will employ.
I did, P1.
It, and now your response, show me that you have NFI where the errors in your comments lie.
Of course the people who are clueless about how to develop a national consensus on closing down the coal industry are equally clueless about how to handle the direct and immediate consequences.
All forms of coal mining: around 40,000 direct jobs.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-11/fact-check-are-there-54000-jobs-in-thermal-coal-mining/11198150
$5 billion in coal royalties. Say $100,000 per job = 10 jobs per million royalties = say direct 50,000 state jobs paid by coal mining royalties.
Indirect jobs based on the 40,000 direct and 50,000 royalties multiply by your preferred figure. Say add another 45,000 jobs.
Add direct and indirect jobs generated using company tax and payroll tax.
Add direct and indirect jobs generated using investment returns from a $40 billion export industry.
A total of 150,000 is probably low ball.
You can see why these people are very, very wary about anti-coal advocates: they want to destroy their jobs, their towns, their investments in their houses. They want to destroy the future of their children.
This is real stuff and it explains why Labor got a pizzling in Queensland.
But the Anti Coal Intifada urgers’ jobs are safe.
The urge getting rid of $40 billion in exports, $5 billion in royalties, additional company and payroll tax BUT they have nothing to hand about how series of regional crises would be addressed.
The problem with the Adani Convoy is that it not only ignored all of the above, it made it less likely that we will come to a national consensus on coal mining.
Two takes on yesterday’s HOC activity.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDrgekZXUAAs7gu?format=jpg&name=medium
Jonathan Pie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Vha59srSks
‘Diogenes says:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 6:20 pm
SK
There have been lots of external reviews. Parasites who walk around with folders and organise meetings with each other cling to their jobs like grim death because no one else will employ.’
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
Unless there is a complete restructure and a spill and fill carried out by tartar minded by highly focussed senior management you will end up with a worse situation than when you started. The ones with get up and go will get up and go. The parasites will breed like rabbits.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 6:24 pm
Two takes on yesterday’s HOC activity.’
Puerile.
Greensborough Growler
What if they held an election and no one participated.
As the UK has Voluntary Voting, Boris would be declared the winner. 🙁
Boerwar @ #270 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:29 pm
Probably. But, it’s what the readers like, apparently.
GG
Yep. I think that that was my point.
Greensborough Growler @ #263 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:19 pm
Your only wealth was your kids? You’re a mortgage broker and don’t have at least some equity in your own house?
I wonder if you disclose that little tidbit to your clients?
Looks like Murdoch knows he would sell very few copies of the Scottish Sun if he repeated the contents of his (English) Sun.
I’m surprised that Murdoch even bothers to produce a Scottish Sun given the political leanings of most Scots recently.
Player One @ #274 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:46 pm
Pfft! Real estate is a bubble. I’m all in on Coal Mining shares!
Boerwar @ #266 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:24 pm
And you can see why people are very, very wary of pro-coal advocates.
They just lie 🙁
Greensborough Growler @ #276 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:49 pm
Fine. Send me those. I’ll cash them in now while the going is good!
citizen @ #275 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
True. I’ve been to Scotland and there is never any sun there.
Player One @ #278 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:51 pm
I could never put you in to an ethical dilemma. You could recan about the future of coal. But, I could never believe anything you said about coal again.
Diogenses:
If ever I were unfortunate enough to be involved in undertaking a “review”, then instead of the standard issue clipboard I’d insist on being given a water pistol and a license to use it.
That’s a good point Player One makes though. Fancy taking financial advice from someone who lives in Greensborough!
‘GG
True. I’ve been to Scotland and there is never any sun there.’
I went to a Scottish Beach once. Just the once. There was a howling Atlantic Gale blasting the top off the water. Spume blotted out the seascape. It was bluidy cold.
The locals were hardy but even the locals kept their overcoats on when they went for a swim.
Greensborough Growler @ #280 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:55 pm
There is no ethical dillema. By disinvesting in coal I would be doing the planet a positive good!
‘E. G. Theodore says:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 6:55 pm
Diogenses:
There have been lots of external reviews. Parasites who walk around with folders and organise meetings with each other cling to their jobs like grim death because no one else will employ.
If ever I were unfortunate enough to be involved in undertaking a “review”, then instead of the standard issue clipboard I’d insist on being given a water pistol and a license to use it.’
Ah. A watered-down Seagull effect.
Joder!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-05/la-vuelta-helicopter-broadcast-captures-marijuana-plantation/11480586
Player One:
[‘I will trust in god to provide a means for the kids to get here.’]
I trust you’re not attempting to open a can of worms?
Not at all an expert… but…
If the SNP picks up 53 seats, if the LDP picks up 30 seats, then that is around 83 seats the Conservatives have to cover before they start matching it with Labor.
It seems to me that a hung parliament is not an impossible outcome of the next Brit election.
Boris is going to give an address to the nation.
Will he ignore everything and force a Hard Brexit anyway?
This will get Trump Twittering!
The San Francisco Board of Supervisors has passed an official resolution that declares the National Rifle Association is a “domestic terrorist organisation”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-05/san-francisco-declares-nra-a-terrorist-organisation/11483440
Player One @ #284 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 6:56 pm
I suppose the ethical dilemma is about how much you would reap from the divestment.
We’d all know what you were.
It just then becomes a haggle about price.
I could never put you in such a predicament.
BK
The last line in the article is the killer, IMO.
They’re currently projecting a “lying Tory” picture onto Edinburgh Castle walls!!
A lot of posts from the coal boosters that have proved my point comprehensively.
Talk about stopping opening a new coal mine called Adani thus expanding coal fields is talked about as if you are closing the coal industry down today. With instant loss of jobs.
A pretence that is an immediate stopping of coal exports. A pretence that’s the immediate sacking of thousands of coal workers.
This can only be true if all existing mining of coal in the Hunter has to stop today because of a convoy saying stop Adani.
Just wow. Talk about lying just to boost the rich multimillionaire new source of income.
I think we can take it as read that the people who want to destroy Australia’s coal industry immediately:
1. Haven’t a clue about the scale of the immediate human impact and could not give a fig about the immediate human impact.
2. Have no idea about the immediate economic impact and could care less.
3. Have no idea about how to develop the sort of national consensus that would deliver the outcome.
4. Have no idea about the set of national policies and spending programs that would deliver some sort of transition.
5. In the interim are very busy with the sort of grandstanding that promotes discord and reduces the likelihood of a solution being developed and implemented.
‘swamprat says:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 7:21 pm
They’re currently projecting a “lying Tory” picture onto Edinburgh Castle walls!!’
The last gasp of the Sassanachs?
In retaliation, Trump will probably try to get the military to place a few nukes along the San Andreas Fault.
The Lib/Nats enable their cotton growing mates to pump the rivers dry, then tell us to tighten our belts as fresh food prices are set to rise.
And farmers blame the cities for not caring enough or helping to fix the problem. We all know who these bumpkins voted for.
Bucephalus:
With reference to your post earlier in this thread. There’s no difference between the Queen’s assent and ‘Royal assent’. The Westminster convention is that the Queen must follow her prime minister’s advice, which she’s done for 67 years, with minor permutations. However, the problem she’s now confronted with – Brexit – is unprecedented. If I were her, I’d hand it over to her heir, making him Prince Regent – there being precedent thereof:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regency_era
She does not deserve to end her reign in a state of flux.
Greensborough Growler @ #291 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 7:13 pm
Your wealth. That was the deal.
Seems only fair, since I am already in pain and suffering because of you.