Various stuff that’s happening

Sarah Henderson reportedly struggling in her Senate preselection comeback bid, plus yet more on the great pollster failure, and other things besides.

Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:

• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.

Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.

Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.

• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,701 comments on “Various stuff that’s happening”

Comments Page 9 of 35
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  1. adrian says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:06 am

    I think certain posters on this site, and the Australian population as a whole fail to appreciate the magnitude of the problem. Business as usual, wherever in the world you happen to be, is simply no longer an option.

    How does destroying Societies help to solve the issues?

    Everything I have written is about now and how we manage the transition away from fossil fuels.

    But it’s no surprise that you missed this.

  2. a r says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:12 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #393 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:58 am

    If the World stopped coal mining today most nations would be unable to meet their power needs that allow their Societies to function.

    Good. That’s just the first thing that would happen. The second thing is that they’d move en masse to deploy other generation methods.

    So I agree that the World should stop coal mining today.

    Such compassion for others.

    Hardly surprising after the recent election result.

  3. To allow their people to live and their Country to function in the immediate to short term.

    However there’s clearly no entitlement to those things. Just look at the Middle East. A quarter million civilians killed by Western military forces since 2001, and at least two governments overthrown and replaced.

    We can murder them, destroy their infrastructure, and topple their governments, but refusing to sell them coal is a step too far?

  4. adrian @ #396 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:06 am

    I think certain posters on this site, and the Australian population as a whole fail to appreciate the magnitude of the problem. Business as usual, wherever in the world you happen to be, is simply no longer an option.

    Yes. I am beginning to realize that many people simply lack the imagination to understand the scale and urgency of the problem. They seem to think we still have decades to solve it.

    Here’s the reality: By the time the next IPCC report comes out, it probably should be printed in the “obituary” column.

  5. Simon Katich @ #398 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:13 am

    Why would anyone have a right to do whatever thing happens to be cheapest?

    Because cheap energy can make a huge impact on the lives of the poorest people on this earth. As I said, they did not create this problem. Their cumulative emissions over that 150y period is almost nix in comparison. Developed countries have made use of this cheap energy, unabated, for 150+years. We created the problem. We are wealthy enough and have the technology to do the early heavy lifting of rapidly reducing our reliance on fossil fuels. Developing nations generally do not.

    I would argue we are wealthy enough to not only move to zero emissions fast, but also subsidise renewable energy in developing countries. This is occasionally done although subject to some horrendously poor governance.

    The emissions data that Angus The Bagman concealed demonstrated that we were on track with cap & trade carbon trading – but then came Gina the Hutt and lesser vermin (like The Crank’s Master, Twiggy) and the Murdorcs to enable their condoms (like the Cycling Smeagol, Turnbull and Scummo) to enable the Dominionist planet rapers.

  6. Is this the latest line deniers are going to run here? That Australia is acutally saving the world?

    No. That is is incumbent on wealthy countries to save the world (and they are failing). You fail to understand just how impoverished parts of the world are. To expect them to stop using cheap energy that makes a real difference to life and wellbeing is disgracefully selfish when Australians cant countenance giving up utes or eating a little less cow meat.

    Developing nations have growing economies. It is their pathway out of poverty. While their economies grow their role in saving the planet is; increasing the percentage of renewables in their mix and to reduce overall fossil fuels use in the near future. It is far more onerous on them than you think – far more onerous than what is asked of developed countries.

  7. Player One says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:13 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #394 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:58 am

    Coal serves a real need in the World today.

    If the World stopped coal mining today most nations would be unable to meet their power needs that allow their Societies to function.

    This focus on coal mining has got the solution arse about and taken the pressure of our Government to come up with a realistic energy policy that reflects the market reality that energy companies are moving strongly towards renewable sources with minimal fossil fuel backup in the form of gas peakers.

    Is this the latest line deniers are going to run here? That Australia is acutally saving the world?

    Un.Be.Lievable

    No, burning coal is bad, but at this point in time much of the World could not function without burning it.

    So coal is required now while establish new sources of power to replace it.

    To do otherwise would create a bigger immediate problem.

  8. The emissions data that Angus The Bagman concealed demonstrated that we were on track with cap & trade carbon trading – but then came Gina the Hutt and lesser vermin (like The Crank’s Master, Twiggy) and the Murdorcs to enable their condoms (like the Cycling Smeagol, Turnbull and Scummo) to enable the Dominionist planet rapers.

    No country should be able to offshore their contributions to reducing emissions. This should be part of a second commitment. That is, all developed nations should commit to reducing our onshore emissions to zero in very short timeframe. All developed nations should also commit to subsidising developing nations to reduce their emissions (either through forest protection or solar/wind farms) – subject to rigorous governance.

  9. Simon,

    I’m often glad that so few people travel to some of the places we have been fortunate to experience, the extra people would detract so much from that experience, but as a result there many who have no appreciation of these places and how the people live.

  10. Barney in Makassar @ #402 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:15 am

    adrian says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:06 am

    I think certain posters on this site, and the Australian population as a whole fail to appreciate the magnitude of the problem. Business as usual, wherever in the world you happen to be, is simply no longer an option.

    How does destroying Societies help to solve the issues?

    Everything I have written is about now and how we manage the transition away from fossil fuels.

    But it’s no surprise that you missed this.

    I’m not surprised that you have failed to miss the broader point. I could wait for you to figure it out for yourself, of course…

  11. Barney in Makassar @ #412 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:34 am

    Simon,

    I’m often glad that so few people travel to some of the places we have been fortunate to experience, the extra people would detract so much from that experience, but as a result there many who have no appreciation of these places and how the people live.

    Erroneous assumption piled upon erroneous assumption. Is that all you got?

  12. a r says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:19 am

    To allow their people to live and their Country to function in the immediate to short term.

    However there’s clearly no entitlement to those things. Just look at the Middle East. A quarter million civilians killed by Western military forces since 2001, and at least two governments overthrown and replaced.

    We can murder them, destroy their infrastructure, and topple their governments, but refusing to sell them coal is a step too far?

    While I would never advocate for war, the effect of stopping coal supplies could well be like starting a major conflict as you describe in most Countries around the World at the same time such would be the impact on those Societies.

  13. On another matter entirely…

    Anne Summers
    @SummersAnne

    I simply do not understand how anyone at all can remain in the Catholic Church. Not only are they lawbreakers but, far worse, they are utter moral failures. They have forfeited the right to prescribe/proscribe to others. Let alone get a tax benefit for doing so.

  14. Simon Katich @ #408 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:25 am

    No. That is is incumbent on wealthy countries to save the world (and they are failing). You fail to understand just how impoverished parts of the world are. To expect them to stop using cheap energy that makes a real difference to life and wellbeing is disgracefully selfish when Australians cant countenance giving up utes or eating a little less cow meat.

    Developing nations have growing economies. It is their pathway out of poverty. While their economies grow their role in saving the planet is; increasing the percentage of renewables in their mix and to reduce overall fossil fuels use in the near future. It is far more onerous on them than you think – far more onerous than what is asked of developed countries.

    Developing nations have no more right to kill the planet than we do. What is the point of a “pathway out of poverty” that kills the very people it is supposed to be helping? The consequences of global warming will fall fastest and hardest on the the poor.

    Your arguments look a lot like an excuse for us to continue to export fossil fuels. You seem to believe you are not a denier. But when you find yourself agreeing with their conclusions, it is probably time to sit back and re-think your assumptions.

  15. adrian says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:41 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #412 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:34 am

    Simon,

    I’m often glad that so few people travel to some of the places we have been fortunate to experience, the extra people would detract so much from that experience, but as a result there many who have no appreciation of these places and how the people live.

    Erroneous assumption piled upon erroneous assumption. Is that all you got?

    So you’re aware, but don’t give a fuck!

  16. I’m not sure of the grammatical rules that cover this, but surely the title of the new ABC alleged comedy series ‘Diary of An Uber Driver’, should be Diary of A Uber Driver.

  17. adrian says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:47 am

    I’m not sure of the grammatical rules that cover this, but surely the title of the new ABC alleged comedy series ‘Diary of An Uber Driver’, should be Diary of A Uber Driver.

    How do you pronounce “Uber”?

  18. Barney in Makassar @ #415 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:43 am

    While I would never advocate for war, the effect of stopping coal supplies could well be like starting a major conflict as you describe in most Countries around the World at the same time such would be the impact on those Societies.

    Yup. Coal is actually saving the planet.

    Honestly. How much more of this nonsense can you generate?

  19. Developing nations have no more right to kill the planet than we do.

    What is killing the planet is cumulative emissions from 1800.
    USA have emitted 10 times more CO2 than India with a vastly smaller population.
    Insinuating that developing nations are killing the planet is out where the buses dont run.

  20. Player One says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:54 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #415 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:43 am

    While I would never advocate for war, the effect of stopping coal supplies could well be like starting a major conflict as you describe in most Countries around the World at the same time such would be the impact on those Societies.

    Yup. Coal is actually saving the planet.

    Honestly. How much more of this nonsense can you generate?

    So, you think there is no need for coal at this moment in time and we can switch off the supply with zero consequences?

  21. Don’t worry guys

    Barney in Makassar @ #424 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 11:00 am

    Player One says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 10:54 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #415 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:43 am

    While I would never advocate for war, the effect of stopping coal supplies could well be like starting a major conflict as you describe in most Countries around the World at the same time such would be the impact on those Societies.

    Yup. Coal is actually saving the planet.

    Honestly. How much more of this nonsense can you generate?

    So, you think there is no need for coal at this moment in time and we can switch off the supply with zero consequences?

    hahahahaha. Let’s keep going as we are with ‘zero consequences’.

  22. SK

    Developing countries did not create this mess. They absolutely have a right to keep using fossil fuels as in most cases it is still cheaper in their country. Their responsibility is to increase the share of renewables in the mix

    Over a decade back, before the Koch bro. funded loons took over, the plan was that developed countries would largely fund the developing nations’ transition to renewables/low carbon. This would largely cut out their “fossil fuel boom” stage of development. The bonus for the developed nations was that there would be a market for their high tech gear and that they would have a continued advantage in the area as early adopters.

    Sadly this became ,deliberately, construed as being part of the “One World Government?” etc etc plots to bring us down. Come on down the legions of swivel eyed Moncktons , Abbotts and the rest of the scurvy crew around the world.

  23. I would be surprised if anyone could mount an argument that we stop all coal mining today with no plan to deal with the economic fall out………Back in the day when horses did all the work and the internal combustion engine came all the scene, nobody suggest workhorses be destroyed overnight. As well, nobody suggested that all steam trains be junked overnight for the same reason. The Germans seem to have sorted out – coal is going, but it will take time, money and innovation for the transition to take place. It seems the argument to hang on to coal at all costs, is akin to the Southern States of the US and others claiming that without slavery the world would come to an end. I suppose, in some respects it did for some in the South – kind of “Gone with the Wind” as it were?

  24. How much more of this nonsense can you generate?

    Your posts are a curious blend of vituperative bluster and IPCC synopses. You would catch more flies with honey.

  25. Let’s keep going as we are with ‘zero consequences’.

    No one here (other than Buce Bigalow) is suggesting we keep going as we are.

  26. Adrian,

    Do you understand the word transition?

    To actually deal with climate change we need a functioning Society. If you destroy the Society, you destroy our ability to build and develop the renewable sources of power we need, and the institutions that are required to develop the tools to combat the problem of global warming.

    The cessation of coal mining and power plants will not stop the planet warming. They are an important step, but they are not the solution to the problem.

    We need to reduce the CO2 levels in the atmosphere, first to slow the rate of warming and then to try and obtain some level of stability.

    That is the problem.

  27. Reading all the “Oh the horror” about Trump and their ‘illegal immigrants’ should leave us all a bit pot v kettle between Australia and the US. There was nothing there that we have not been doing for years . Done with cheering election winning voter support and egged on by the meeja peasants.

    There was a comment about raids and a lack of them. Well we have them too, a quick sample.
    ——————————————-
    Kids left after huge migrant worker raids
    JEFF AMY and ROGELIO V. SOLIS
    AAP
    Friday, 9 August 2019 7:10 am
    https://7news.com.au/business/kids-left-after-huge-migrant-worker-raids-c-390803
    Illegal workers detained after Border Force raids on farms and brothel
    Monday, 1 July 2019 1:29 pm
    https://7news.com.au/news/crime/illegal-workers-detained-after-border-force-raids-on-farms-and-brothel-c-192945
    Illegal farm workers arrested by Border Force in early morning immigration raid
    Grant Taylor
    The West Australian
    Thursday, 2 March 2017 6:48AM
    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/illegal-farm-workers-arrested-by-border-force-in-early-morning-immigration-raid-ng-b88401817z

    More than 500 law enforcement agents raided a number of properties in Perth’s northern suburbs on Saturday.

    The main operation targeted a market garden compound at Carabooda, where more than 130 foreign nationals were taken into custody.

    Acting Commissioner Craig
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-05/ten-charged-after-carabooda-raids-uncover-foreign-workers/5429852

  28. Tricot says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 11:13 am

    I would be surprised if anyone could mount an argument that we stop all coal mining today with no plan to deal with the economic fall out………Back in the day when horses did all the work and the internal combustion engine came all the scene, nobody suggest workhorses be destroyed overnight. …

    In some parts of SE Asia water buffalo are still used to plow the fields.

  29. @KayJay

    I have hope that this government will do, although it might take a revolution to achieve it. Although it will take a lot to occur for this to happen.

    I am envisioning a recession leading to housing market collapse, which will lead to the banks (since a lot of loans are in residential property) facing failure, which will be led to a bailout of the banks. While all this happening Australia goes into an economic depression, where official unemployment soars to 30%. Given the bank bailout the government will implement some very harsh austerity measures. So, hundreds of thousands of people will lose their homes, jobs, along with some living in cars or tents.

    The government in response to an economic crisis, increased strikes and protests, will ramp up the authoritarianism to the nth degree. So, we will see offices of activists, activist organisations and unions raided by the police. Also, we will see protesters in the hundreds, if not thousands being tasered, tear gassed and then arrested by police. Then that will be the breaking point and then a revolution starts.

  30. Simon Katich @ #423 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 10:58 am

    Developing nations have no more right to kill the planet than we do.

    What is killing the planet is cumulative emissions from 1800.
    USA have emitted 10 times more CO2 than India with a vastly smaller population.
    Insinuating that developing nations are killing the planet is out where the buses dont run.

    You argue like a white man.

  31. Barney in Makassar @ #431 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 11:21 am

    Adrian,

    Do you understand the word transition?

    To actually deal with climate change we need a functioning Society. If you destroy the Society, you destroy our ability to build and develop the renewable sources of power we need, and the institutions that are required to develop the tools to combat the problem of global warming.

    The cessation of coal mining and power plants will not stop the planet warming. They are an important step, but they are not the solution to the problem.

    We need to reduce the CO2 levels in the atmosphere, first to slow the rate of warming and then to try and obtain some level of stability.

    That is the problem.

    Self-serving claptrap.

  32. @lizzie

    Yes, although it would have to take the sort of circumstances I have described above.

    It is no surprise that people such as Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders emerged in both Britain and America. After both countries had a considerably worse experience in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis than us. If we had for example had the banks face failure during the GFC and needing to be bailed out, along with a severe recession with unemployment rising to 12%.

    I have no doubt in my mind some Australian Corbyn or Sanders would have emerged, the candidates in my opinion would have been either Scott Ludlam or Doug Cameron or Penny Wong.

  33. @rhianawhitson (ABC)
    ·
    10m
    The Treasurer is holding a press conference right now in Launceston about a report the govt has refused to release in advance. How on earth can we be expected to ask proper questions? This happens all the time and it is unacceptable. #politas

  34. Brazil’s controversial president Jair Bolsonaro has fired the director of the Brazilian space agency INPE, which monitors deforestation in the Amazon. The agency recently revealed the extent to which deforestation has increased since Bolsonaro took power in January, which the president took exception to.

    More than 3700 square kilometres of forest have been cut down so far this year, according to INPE. That is more than during the same period in 2016, the year with the highest losses in the past decade.

    Bolsonaro recently claimed that the INPE figures are a “lie” and were released to harm Brazil’s reputation. But researchers say the INPE’s deforestation data is respected and trusted. Organisations in other countries that monitor deforestation via satellites have also reported big increases.

    The president’s claims led to robust responses from INPE director Ricardo Magnus Osorio Galvao, who called Bolsonaro’s attack “cowardly” and said he would not step down. On 2 August Galvao was sacked.

    Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2212479-space-agency-chief-fired-after-revealing-recent-amazon-deforestation/#ixzz5wd81gg62

  35. Simon Katich @ #445 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 11:45 am

    You argue like a white man.

    You retort like you are losing the argument.

    When the best you can come up with is stuff like this …

    What is killing the planet is cumulative emissions from 1800.
    USA have emitted 10 times more CO2 than India with a vastly smaller population.

    … then I have to conclude that rational argument is wasted on you.

    Just like Barney, you are arguing for doing nothing.

  36. Player One says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 11:42 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #439 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 11:34 am

    P1,

    How so?

    Your arguments are all long-winded ways of saying the same thing – i.e. let’s do nothing.

    You’ve developed Adrian’s comprehension skills then.

    Everything I argue is about doing what’s required.

    I just disagree with your course of action due to the global impact on Society and the way it would compromise our ability to deal the ultimate problem.

  37. Tristo @ #434 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    @KayJay

    I have hope that this government will do, although it might take a revolution to achieve it. Although it will take a lot to occur for this to happen.

    I am envisioning a recession leading to housing market collapse, which will lead to the banks (since a lot of loans are in residential property) facing failure, which will be led to a bailout of the banks. While all this happening Australia goes into an economic depression, where official unemployment soars to 30%. Given the bank bailout the government will implement some very harsh austerity measures. So, hundreds of thousands of people will lose their homes, jobs, along with some living in cars or tents.

    The government in response to an economic crisis, increased strikes and protests, will ramp up the authoritarianism to the nth degree. So, we will see offices of activists, activist organisations and unions raided by the police. Also, we will see protesters in the hundreds, if not thousands being tasered, tear gassed and then arrested by police. Then that will be the breaking point and then a revolution starts.

    You are seeing a very bleak near/future. I recall from the 1950 that the Military could not be used legally against the populace. Lotsa changes since then and the following is interesting.

    http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/adfj/Documents/issue_202/Sutton_July_2017.pdf

    The increasing convergence
    of the role and function of the
    ADF and civil police
    Captain John Sutton, Australian Army

    and the question contained in this —

    There are also residual concerns about the use
    of the ADF for domestic security purposes. At its
    core is the question of whether the government
    can be trusted to use the ADF legally and wisely
    and, indeed, whether the ADF can be trusted
    to respect civil liberties.3 These concerns find
    their foundation in the well-established but often
    ill-defined tradition in Western democracies that
    governments must be constrained in their use
    of the armed forces by constitutions, laws, conventions,
    the judiciary and parliament.

    I’m too old to march on the Bastille so the revolution will probably have to start without me.

    For lack of Cricket last night I watched one of the Air Crash Investigation items where a commercial jet was hijacked (pre 911) and the hijackers directed the aircraft captain to head to Australia over water. There was only enough fuel for a couple of hours and so the end result would be no engines and a glide to the ocean. A well know photographer and journalist tried to enlist the services of the passenger to tackle the three hijackers. Sadly nobody could make up their minds and the aircraft crashed.

    I think Australia is much like the passengers on that aircraft. We’ll be watching Netflix and Youtube while the planet burns.

    I have no idea why I’m not depressed about all this. I have a stress test app on my phone and it tells me my stress is so low I may be near death (not really death but very low stress and my pulse rate is low also).

    In the meanwhile all proceeds in Orstraya as though the object is to ratify Einstein’s oft quoted

    Question — Can the Gummint be trusted ❓

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