Various stuff that’s happening

Sarah Henderson reportedly struggling in her Senate preselection comeback bid, plus yet more on the great pollster failure, and other things besides.

Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:

• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.

• Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.

• Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.

• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,701 comments on “Various stuff that’s happening”

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  1. @rhwombat

    Also we have the 3 stooges as leaders of 3 major countries, media can’t help them this time.

    I already know people who lost jobs in retail sector .

  2. The Trump administration’s immigration programs in action.

    The administration has separated immigrant children from their parents and held both in squalid cages. It has staged massive roundups of undocumented but otherwise law-abiding immigrants. It has slashed refugee admissions — to a level possibly as low as zero by next year.

    The human toll of its inhumane conduct is steep — and growing. Witness the story of Jimmy Aldaoud, an Iraqi refugee born in a camp in Greece, and who was brought the United States legally in 1979 when he was just six months old. Suffering from bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, Aldaoud never became a citizen and compiled a long record of petty crimes. In June, Immigration and Customs Enforcement finally caught up with him. Over his anguished protests, agents deported Aldaoud to Iraq — a country he had never visited and whose language he did not speak. A diabetic, he could not get insulin in Iraq. He died in Baghdad, the New York Times noted, “after vomiting blood and begging to return to the United States.”

    While much of the president’s fire and fury is focused on undocumented immigrants, his administration is also targeting legal arrivals. Cuccinelli just unveiled new rules for getting a green card or U.S. citizenship, which penalize those who have taken advantage of the social welfare benefits to which they are entitled. Other disadvantaged categories include those who have a medical condition that interferes with work or school, “financial liabilities,” a lack of English-language skills and even a low credit score. One wonders what kind of credit score Friedrich Trump — the president’s grandfather — had when he arrived from Germany in 1885, a failed barber who did not speak a word of English.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-rewriting-the-meaning-of-america-literally/2019/08/14/c3e829e8-bec4-11e9-9b73-fd3c65ef8f9c_story.html

  4. Confessions @ #351 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 8:42 am
    The Trump administration’s immigration programs in action.

    The administration has separated immigrant children from their parents and held both in squalid cages. It has staged massive roundups of undocumented but otherwise law-abiding immigrants. It has slashed refugee admissions — to a level possibly as low as zero by next year.

    The human toll of its inhumane conduct is steep — and growing.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-rewriting-the-meaning-of-america-literally/2019/08/14/c3e829e8-bec4-11e9-9b73-fd3c65ef8f9c_story.html

    Sounds like they are following the Morrison-Dutton playbook.

  5. C@t

    As bad as Morrison Dutton are, what Trump is doing is so much worse.
    Apart from doing ICE raids at places where these people work, which then means the employer has no obligation to pay any outstanding wages, you can see that Trump is as usual helping his friends with the money.

    Meanwhile Trumps own current wife came to the US under dubious circumstances and in fact was connected to Epstein and Ghirlane Maxwell before Trump. I reckon there is a very interesting story there and should it come out, I can’t see how Trump could deny ever knowing his own wife.
    Lol!!

  6. Such is the monopoly on the media that the Morrison government (or any other LNP-led government) can probably be re-elected even if the ASX All Ordinaries HALVES and the Prime Minister gets caught with a dead lady in bed.
    I predict that there will not be a Labor (or rather, non-conservative, because the Labor Party may simply wither away) federal government in your lifetimes. And starting in 2022 the LNP will have a perpetual majority in the Senate, either on its own or with One Nation. I can’t wait!
    Then, we can start working on WorkChoices Plus. Imagine how prosperous my descendants will be if they can pay $8 an hour to their waitresses and allow tipping to be standard culture in this country! And how about nucular power!

  8. Vic:

    Yes Trump is worse than our lot. And why employers of undocumented immigrants aren’t forced to pay fines is anyone’s guess. It’s the people forcibly deported who are paying the price, not those breaking the law.

  9. @Nostradamus

    That and Morrison is very Machiavellian, if an economic crisis were to occur, lord knows what he could do. Although if an economic crisis were to occur and the Morrison government ramped up authoritarianism dramatically, I predict it would trigger a political revolution.

  11. Fess

    Exactly.

    Although a bit like our laws when it comes to bribery in the workplace.
    The recent arrest of cfmmeu official accused of taking kickbacks from company is all well and good, but what about the company’s part.
    I guess we can thank the fiberals for ensuring it is only a one way street.

    And speaking of the CFMMEU, Setka as expected, ain’t budging. They are slowly bringing down those around him, but he is so far untouchable.
    I have been told that plan a and plan b have failed to dislodge him.
    There is going to be one last roll of dice with a plan c which I am not privy to.
    Setka has basically stated that he is not going to budge and if he is removed he will take the whole union down with him.

    And I have been reminded that the current laws would allow the govt to commence proceedings to deregister the union if so desired

  12. Pell’s appeal is expected to be handed next week. There are three possible outcomes: acquittal, a new trial, jury verdict found to be safe.

  14. Barney

    As you would have seen reported, the Justice department says a sitting a president cannot be indicted, despite Mueller believing he ought to be.

  15. Vic,
    There is NO way the story that is Melania Knauss/Trump will ever become public.

    Fun Fact: She reminds me of the female character in the Devo video for ‘Whip It! 😆

  18. Victoria says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 9:06 am

    Barney

    As you would have seen reported, the Justice department says a sitting a president cannot be indicted, despite Mueller believing he ought to be.

    Sorry, wrong word.

    I meant impeachment.

  19. Fess

    Something that has been considered. Oh I forgot to mention that the ETU whose leader is a good one but somewhat naive, is being sucked into by Setka to go into bat for him. Stupid move. As it will also imperil the ETU.

    Sigh….

  20. Victoria @ #366 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:07 am

    C@t

    There isn’t. Unless Ghislane Maxwell decides she has nothing to lose.

    They’d have to go through an extensive Extradition case and then process to wedge her out of whatever hidey hole she is in now, before that could happen and I imagine there are some very powerful people who want to keep her hidden away.

  21. phoenixRED says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 7:21 am

    During Nicolle Wallace’s show, former Joe Biden chief of staff Ron Klein explained that Trump is messing up the situation in Hong Kong so badly……

    “One country is going to write the rules for the 21st century, either the United States or China,” Klein explained. “If America doesn’t lean forward, we are basically ceding the entire Asia Pacific to China. That’s not only bad for democracy, it’s bad for our allies there, and countries like South Korean and Japan, it’s bad for American interests and trade and Jobs.”

    Biden’s bloke is advocating a hawkish line on China. Implicitly, he’s saying ‘the entire Asia Pacific’ is a US dominion. This may have been true of the Pacific in 1945. It’s not true now. It has not been true since the defeat of the US in Vietnam. It is a backward-looking worldview. Countries such as South Korea and Japan are US dependencies or tributaries rather than ‘allies’. They are the territorial and strategic spoils of past wars and are vehicles for the projection of US military power against China.

    The problem for Australia is to avoid being caught up in US/China competition. The plain-as-day reality is that China will surpass the US in very many respects, especially in this region. The uni-polar order that existed for a few years following the collapse of the Soviet Union has vanished and cannot be revived by any means. This is the true-life pic for us in Australia. There is no upside for Australia in a US that is invested in conflict with China or that sees the Asia-Pacific as a US province. It’s not.

  22. Barney

    I’ve never supported the move for impeachment due to the GOP not being on board.
    Although according to those in the know, the tide is turning this week,so proceedings may start after all.

  23. Barney in Makassar @ #367 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 7:08 am

    Victoria says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 9:06 am

    Barney

    As you would have seen reported, the Justice department says a sitting a president cannot be indicted, despite Mueller believing he ought to be.

    Sorry, wrong word.

    I meant impeachment.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/democrats-will-ask-federal-judge-to-force-testimony-from-ex-white-house-counsel-mcgahn-pelosi-says/2019/08/07/ca523fc4-b926-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html

  24. C@t

    It all depends where she actually is at present. For all we know she may have been the one to encourage Epstein to return to the USA in the first instance. There are so many moving parts to this saga.

  25. Nostradamus:

    [‘And starting in 2022 the LNP will have a perpetual majority in the Senate, either on its own or with One Nation. I can’t wait!’]

    Not one of your better predictions. First, the Greens aren’t going away; second, One Nation will implode once Hanson leaves the scene, more than likely at the next election; third, Labor will increase its representation after the punters come to the realisation that Morrison’s a fraud.

  29. Mavis Davis @ #374 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:13 am

    Nostradamus:

    [‘And starting in 2022 the LNP will have a perpetual majority in the Senate, either on its own or with One Nation. I can’t wait!’]

    Not one of your better predictions. First, the Greens aren’t going away; second, One Nation will implode once Hanson leaves the scene, more than likely at the next election; third, Labor will increase its representation after the punters come to the realisation that Morrison’s a fraud.

    Yeah, remember the Liberal gloating after Howard’s 2004 win where he got control of both Houses of Parliament? 🙂

  31. Barney in Makassar @ #319 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 12:18 am

    Is someone still pedalling this crap.

    So, if a Country imports all its fossil fuel requirements, they would then have zero emissions.

    Also, the problem isn’t digging the shit up, it’s burning the shit.

    The digging up will only be stopped when there is no longer a demand to burn it.

    Do you still not understand this? Australia cannot claim it is an insignificant player in greenhouse gas emissions. We are in fact one of the worst.

    Your argument is akin to saying you can’t blame drug dealers for any drug problems. You must blame only the users. If they would only stop using, there would be no problem.

  32. C@t

    Maybe.

    My question is Why would Epstein willing to return to the USA amidst this maelstrom.
    The pressure by the journalist from the Miami Herald on behalf of the victims and asking questions of Alex Acosta who was AG at time of Epstein facing charges and sentencing. Which caused Acosta then having to resign as Secretary of Labor.
    Why come back to the US,unless he was given some assurances.

    So many questions.

  33. Tristo @ #358 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 8:58 am

    @Nostradamus

    That and Morrison is very Machiavellian, if an economic crisis were to occur, lord knows what he could do. Although if an economic crisis were to occur and the Morrison government ramped up authoritarianism dramatically, I predict it would trigger a political revolution.

    I suggest to you that the *Average Orstrayan Dickhead would not even notice and would proceed with his plan to conquer the world by perfecting his revolutionary magnetic perpetual motion machine.

    *The astute PB reader will, of course, have noticed the not so carefully hidden piece of foolishness.
    That is —-
    The Orstrayan Dickhead is well below average.
    And
    His magic magnetic machine is stuck to his head where his iron mask is vainly trying to prevent further brain loss.

    Over and nearly out as I wait for kindly passers by to dash in and do my washing for me.

  34. Player One @ #380 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:21 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #319 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 12:18 am

    Is someone still pedalling this crap.

    So, if a Country imports all its fossil fuel requirements, they would then have zero emissions.

    Also, the problem isn’t digging the shit up, it’s burning the shit.

    The digging up will only be stopped when there is no longer a demand to burn it.

    Do you still not understand this? Australia cannot claim it is an insignificant player in greenhouse gas emissions. We are in fact one of the worst.

    Your argument is akin to saying you can’t blame drug dealers for any drug problems. You must blame only the users. If they would only stop using, there would be no problem.

    Got it in one, Player One!

  35. One would like to think a full-blown (R)ecession would have the electorate looking to put Labor back into office. It almost came about in 1961 to break what was to be 23 years straight in office for the LNP. Back then the LNP got back in with a majority of 1 in the Reps and then held on “until things got better”…………………..
    There are two powerful diversions for the conservatives………..
    One is, the claim that as Oz is like a leaf in the breeze between China and the US, Brexit, the collapse of the Argentinian economy and a dozen or more wars and potential wars, that nothing can done domestically and again, the LNP is the best party to help ride this out.
    The second, of course, is come what may, it is clear” Labor got us in this mess (somehow) and you cannot trust them to fix it – even though we can’t do anything about it.”.

  41. Your argument is akin to saying you can’t blame drug dealers for any drug problems. You must blame only the users. If they would only stop using, there would be no problem.

    Developing countries did not create this mess. They absolutely have a right to keep using fossil fuels as in most cases it is still cheaper in their country. Their responsibility is to increase the share of renewables in the mix and plan to reduce overall use of fossil fuels in the very near future. Which they are doing to mixed degrees of success.

    Your metaphor is valid only to coal exported to countries not meeting their commitments or not signing up to commitments.

  42. Lenore Taylor @lenoretaylor
    50m
    Australia removes climate ‘crisis’ from Pacific islands draft declaration – and all but one reference to coal

    Tuvalu’s prime minister, Enele Sopoaga, told Guardian Australia at a dawn fishing trip on Thursday in the lead-up to the leaders’ retreat that it looked as though Pacific leaders would not be successful in getting the language of “climate change crisis” in the communique, with the draft most likely to describe the current situation as a “climate change reality”.

    A source saw a draft text of the communique said the version text leaders would be debating would call on members to “reflect on” the UN secretary general’s call for no new coal and an end to fossil fuel subsidies, rather than actually endorsing it, which is what Pacific small island leaders have said they want.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/15/australia-removes-coal-and-climate-crisis-references-from-pacific-islands-declaration?CMP=share_btn_tw

  43. Simon Katich @ #390 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:52 am

    Your argument is akin to saying you can’t blame drug dealers for any drug problems. You must blame only the users. If they would only stop using, there would be no problem.

    Developing countries did not create this mess. They absolutely have a right to keep using fossil fuels as in most cases it is still cheaper in their country.

    What utter nonsense. “We killed people, therefore you have the right to kill people”.

    I am continually astonished at the ridiculous arguments Australians are willing to use as an excuse to do nothing 🙁

  45. Player One says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 9:21 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #319 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 12:18 am

    Is someone still pedalling this crap.

    So, if a Country imports all its fossil fuel requirements, they would then have zero emissions.

    Also, the problem isn’t digging the shit up, it’s burning the shit.

    The digging up will only be stopped when there is no longer a demand to burn it.

    Do you still not understand this? Australia cannot claim it is an insignificant player in greenhouse gas emissions. We are in fact one of the worst.

    Our impact is what we burn, as is any other nation’s.

    Your argument is akin to saying you can’t blame drug dealers for any drug problems. You must blame only the users. If they would only stop using, there would be no problem.

    What a puerile analogy.

    Coal serves a real need in the World today.

    If the World stopped coal mining today most nations would be unable to meet their power needs that allow their Societies to function.

    This focus on coal mining has got the solution arse about and taken the pressure of our Government to come up with a realistic energy policy that reflects the market reality that energy companies are moving strongly towards renewable sources with minimal fossil fuel backup in the form of gas peakers.

  46. a r says:
    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 9:56 am

    Simon Katich @ #389 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:52 am

    They absolutely have a right to keep using fossil fuels as in most cases it is still cheaper in their country.

    Why would anyone have a right to do whatever thing happens to be cheapest?

    To allow their people to live and their Country to function in the immediate to short term.

  47. I think certain posters on this site, and the Australian population as a whole fail to appreciate the magnitude of the problem. Business as usual, wherever in the world you happen to be, is simply no longer an option.

  48. Barney in Makassar @ #393 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:58 am

    If the World stopped coal mining today most nations would be unable to meet their power needs that allow their Societies to function.

    Good. That’s just the first thing that would happen. The second thing is that they’d move en masse to deploy other generation methods.

    So I agree that the World should stop coal mining today. 🙂

  49. Why would anyone have a right to do whatever thing happens to be cheapest?

    Because cheap energy can make a huge impact on the lives of the poorest people on this earth. As I said, they did not create this problem. Their cumulative emissions over that 150y period is almost nix in comparison. Developed countries have made use of this cheap energy, unabated, for 150+years. We created the problem. We are wealthy enough and have the technology to do the early heavy lifting of rapidly reducing our reliance on fossil fuels. Developing nations generally do not.

    I would argue we are wealthy enough to not only move to zero emissions fast, but also subsidise renewable energy in developing countries. This is occasionally done although subject to some horrendously poor governance.

  50. Barney in Makassar @ #394 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 9:58 am

    Coal serves a real need in the World today.

    If the World stopped coal mining today most nations would be unable to meet their power needs that allow their Societies to function.

    This focus on coal mining has got the solution arse about and taken the pressure of our Government to come up with a realistic energy policy that reflects the market reality that energy companies are moving strongly towards renewable sources with minimal fossil fuel backup in the form of gas peakers.

    Is this the latest line deniers are going to run here? That Australia is acutally saving the world?

    Un.Be.Lievable 🙁

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