Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:
• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.
• Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.
• Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.
• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.
Briefly,
I have been discussing this situation with my friends, who run the whole gamut from Malcolm Turnbull Liberals (but who have unfortunately been mesmerised by ScoMo), to Labor and Greens party members and voters.
Labor is in an unfortunate situation in that is has no friends in the media, and that the Greens were so convinced that Labor was going to win the last Federal election that they opposed Labor to make sure they had a voice on the new progressive / left government that Australia was about to get.
However, we all feel that Labor just needs to “get over it”, understand the hostile environment in which it needs to try and both push progressive policy, and also appeal to enough voters so that Labor gets 51% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Blaming the Greens for all our woes (and yes, they did work against Labor, because they were so convinced Labor would be elected), is not going to win us the next Federal election, and that is what we need to be working for now.
everyone’s always picking on the Labor party.
E. G. Theodore says:
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 10:35 pm
Thank you. I appreciate your comment.
nath
Harden up, Princess
EDIT: on reflection a fairly stupid comment – let my idiocy remain here for all to see
The New Colossus (Emma Lazarus)
Nath
Can you think of a single “independent ” media organisation that is anything other than anti-Labor, apart from the Guardian?
Hard for me being back from Europe, where there is a genuine diversity of media views, to find that The Australian media’s commentary is basically “Labor Sux!”
In no way do I think Labor is perfect, but it is a legitimate political party with a strong grass roots membership.
Thanks Red Ted,
https://poets.org/poem/new-colossus
This reminds me that the US used to be a better place 🙁
https://poets.org/poem/new-colossus
Nath, if you are around, I am a great believer in the importance of “laziness” in getting results.
I just had this happen to me:
http://phdcomics.com/comics/archive_print.php?comicid=1051
Look at the first two frames – it was about 15 minutes between frame 1 and 2.
Un -fucking-belivable, but Dog it has made my night.
The Age/SMH is hardly an LNP booster.
‘Cause they wore velour flares until the late ’80s.
‘Cause my fifteen-year-old cousin has less acne.
‘Cause they’ve got the grooming habits of a chimpanzee.
‘Cause their only school chum was the lunch lady.
Congrats D&M. That’s how easy it is for you sciencey folks! 😛
thanks for that reference itsthevibe. I have not heard that for so long yet the lyrics called out to me.
Bucephalus @ #297 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:22 pm
Impossible. The Coalition only just barely manages that by being…a Coalition. The Liberals don’t have majority support in their own right. And the Nationals certainly are nowhere even close to it.
There’s no position that a single party can occupy that will translate to outright majority support.
a r
I’ll pay it – the ability for the Coalition to walk different sides of the street in different electorates is certainly a structural advantage, and a far more convincing argument than scribblings quibbling about Liblings!
This is actually quite entrepreneurial for Adelaide:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/insolvent-recycling-company-shipped-adelaide-s-junk-to-melbourne-and-dumped-it-20190814-p52h2h.html
South Australia finally gets its revenge for all the insults from Melbourne over the years. Well played.
Yield on 10 year T-Bills below 2 year for the first time since 2008-09
Could be a blip (it’s only -0.01%, the smallest possible amount) but still worrying.
Also (more interesting, and more worrying), the inverted yield signals have been getting less prominent. Prior to the early 80’s recession, the inversion went on for more than three years and reached -2%, whereas in 08-09 it was about 18 months and reached only about -0.15%. Financial super cycle?
10 year and 2 year UK treasury securities likewise inverted today (Wednesday) for the first time since the 08-09 episode. Yowser!
mikehilliard says:
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 6:56 pm
Is someone still pedalling this crap.
So, if a Country imports all its fossil fuel requirements, they would then have zero emissions.
Also, the problem isn’t digging the shit up, it’s burning the shit.
The digging up will only be stopped when there is no longer a demand to burn it.
I thought that’s what SA was doing with the Collins Class Submarines.
Ideally the House of Representatives should have proportional representation, with it’s size increased to 250 MP’s. Tasmania, ACT and NT would have a single electorate with between 2 to 5 members. While the other states would have multiple electorates with between 3-5 members.
The electoral system would be Hare-Clark, with no above the line voting and rotating ballot papers. This electoral reform would need a constitutional amendment to break the requirement that the House of Representatives needs to be twice the size of the Senate. Proportional Representation would help to create a multiparty system in Australian politics and hopefully improve the discourse in the House of Representatives.
The Senate’s powers should be curtailed as well, with it being similar in powers to say the British House of Lords. Also above the line voting should be abolished in the senate and the minimum number of preferences voters need to give be limited to the number of senators up for election. Both houses of parliament should have fixed four year terms.
Apart from the economics of holding House and Senate elections together, what benefit is there in doing so?
The Senate has fixed terms, so why not set the election date as the second Saturday in May every 3 years.
This would mean that they would often be stand alone elections where scrutiny would be placed on the candidates, unlike now where they largely float through unappraised.
The Government could choose to have a House election on the same date otherwise they couldn’t have one within 3 months before or after the date.
Anyway, just a thought. 🙂
C@t…..coastal erosion is well-recognised by residents and local government in the northern metro area. It’s already an issue in local planning. The coast is changing shape very rapidly in some places, mostly due to thermal expansion of the Leeuwin current….something well documented since settlement in 1829.
EGT….the real economy is in trouble….the economic yield of thoroughly incompetent Lib-Lib rule.
D & M….it’s in the direct political interest of the Greens to defeat Labor in the Senate. This is their breakfast. They will do it whenever they need a feed.
Until the dysfunction on the Left is repaired nothing of substance can be durably resolved in favour of working people. This has been true since the rise of the Greens. It will remain the case. The dysfunction has to be brought to an end for Labor to succeed.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/08/14/various-stuff-thats-happening/comment-page-7/#comment-3234757
A 250 seat House of Reps may, narrowly, qualify Tasmania for a 6th seat. Alternately, it may just miss out but its population size means that it would be around the 5.5 quotas needed for a 6th seat in a 250 seat House of Reps.
The Australian 10 year has been under 1% for a week or so.
I can’t remember the last time it was that low, great time for the government to go on a spending spree.
@Tristo
I would allow above the line voting and not having ballet rotation but a vote above the line means your vote is divided among the parties remaining candidates.
I am thinking that rotating ballets would make it harder to count.
Catprog @ #327 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 6:29 am
I am in favour of ballet rotation as long as all the candidates wear a tu tu.
Douglas and Milko says:
….
Labor is in an unfortunate situation in that is has no friends in the media, and that the Greens were so convinced that Labor was going to win the last Federal election that they opposed Labor to make sure they had a voice on the new progressive / left government that Australia was about to get.
However, we all feel that Labor just needs to “get over it”, understand the hostile environment in which it needs to try and both push progressive policy, and also appeal to enough voters so that Labor gets 51% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Blaming the Greens for all our woes (and yes, they did work against Labor, because they were so convinced Labor would be elected), is not going to win us the next Federal election, and that is what we need to be working for now.
…
I agree with the motivation the Greens had for their increased anti Labor aggression. It gets worse, there are a percentage that believes the senate should be independent and vote against the party that is going to win the lower house. The polls have left them all high and dry.
As to what to do about the Greens.
Green voters need to realize the Greens are an anti Labor party and little else.
They do not deliver for the Environment, they do not deliver for progressive politics, they don’t deliver anything other than government to the Liberals.
If that is what the electorate wants, then so be it, but they should vote for reality, not the illusion that Greens try to maintain, for themselves and the electorate.
As things stand the Greens are doing little to keep their primary goal secret,which is good for Australian politics.
Strap yourselves in, Wall Street has got the Donny Wobbles:
Wall Street stumbled on Wednesday as investors fled equities for safe-haven assets, seeking shelter amid gathering signs that a recession could be on the horizon.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-for-heavy-falls-as-wall-street-dives-on-recession-fears-20190815-p52h7z.html
here’s a good primer about trump’s reade was with China by Krugman and why he believes China is winning.
http://m.startribune.com/trade-war-i-d-bet-dollars-to-doughnuts-china-has-the-upper-hand-on-trump/531037901/
C@t, from that SMH article..
‘Whether the events presage an economic calamity or just an alarming spasm are unclear. But unlike during the Great Recession, global leaders are not working in unison to confront mounting problems and arrest the slowdown. Instead, they are increasing’
And why is this so? All fingers are pointing at Dotard.
Insulting the Europeans, picking fights with the Chinese, blowing smoke up Kim Jong Un arse, filling his Cabinet with dodgy rent seekers, the list goes on. But what might just loosen his rusted on MAGAts is losing their money.
Good article GG
Trade war: I’d bet dollars to doughnuts China has the upper hand on Trump
….
Oh, well. I guess arithmetic is just a hoax perpetrated by the deep state.
…
http://m.startribune.com/trade-war-i-d-bet-dollars-to-doughnuts-china-has-the-upper-hand-on-trump/531037901/
sprocket,
‘Trade Wars are fun and easy to win!’ 😐
The guy has no clue! He thinks some smart accounting firm full of Jews (as his father told him to go to, and, no, I’m just being historically factual not Anti Semitic), will find a way to get, this time, his country out of the hole he has created and he will get all the credit, of course.
Well, the global economy doesn’t work that way, it’s really hard to corral the animal spirits of the economy, especially during a downturn. Larry Summers and President Obama did it. The Orange Cheeto and Steve Mnuchin are all about greed, so they are functionally incapable.
Greensborough Growler @ #331 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 6:48 am
For the emotionally/mathematicaly minded, the herd is moving…
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 21.62, 40.67% above its 50-day moving average and indicates that investors are concerned about the near-term values of their portfolios.
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Republicans ‘helped build Frankenstein and now he doesn’t listen!’: MSNBC panel blasts erratic rogue Trump
An MSNBC panel Wednesday noted that the Republican Party is squarely responsible for creating Frankenstein’s monster and now are unable to control him.
During Nicolle Wallace’s show, former Joe Biden chief of staff Ron Klein explained that Trump is messing up the situation in Hong Kong so badly.
“One country is going to write the rules for the 21st century, either the United States or China,” Klein explained. “If America doesn’t lean forward, we are basically ceding the entire Asia Pacific to China. That’s not only bad for democracy, it’s bad for our allies there, and countries like South Korean and Japan, it’s bad for American interests and trade and Jobs.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/republicans-helped-build-frankenstein-and-now-he-doesnt-listen-msnbc-panel-blasts-erratic-rogue-trump/
MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace: ‘Trump’s cluelessness is on full display’ — in every way
As the New York Stock Exchange closed at more than 800 points down on Wednesday, MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace remarked that the week has been catastrophic for President Donald Trump this week on every issue.
“The Dow closing over 800 points down today as Donald Trump’s political weakness, foreign policy cluelessness and abdication of American leadership on the world stage is on full and stark display,” Wallace opened.
She noted that the whole world is watching pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong carrying American flags as they fight for what rights they have left. In any other administration, the world would be clear about where America stands. Instead, what’s happened is ambiguity, confusion and general carelessness for Hong Kong.
Lawmakers across Washington, including Trump’s own advisers, are alarmed about the situation, but the president is golfing and on vacation. When he appeared in public Tuesday, Trump rambled on about loving trucks, being angry at former President Barack Obama for his book deal after leaving office and wind energy being somehow dangerous.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/msnbcs-nicolle-wallace-trumps-cluelessness-is-on-full-display-in-every-way/
And we have ‘Surpluses are good and easy to do!’ Scott and Josh at the helm of our Economy. 🙄
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Alexandra Smith reports that Berejiklian has rolled over on gender selection abortion and ruled out voluntary euthanasia. The religious mafia within her party got her!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/berejiklian-rolls-over-on-gender-selection-abortion-rules-out-voluntary-euthanasia-20190814-p52h69.html
And the SMH editorial chimes in saying the right must not use the abortion debate as a political tool.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/right-must-not-use-abortion-debate-as-a-political-tool-20190814-p52h4q.html
The AMA says that state Parliament has been paralysed into inaction because people who want to obstruct access to abortion or prevent it entirely have linked it in a very insincere and flawed way to the very emotionally charged issue of gender selection.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/gender-selection-has-nothing-to-do-with-decriminalising-abortion-ama-20190814-p52h2z.html
John Hewson has some suggestions on how to fix our debased Parliament and its most questionable time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-to-fix-our-debased-parliament-and-its-most-questionable-time-20190814-p52gyb.html
Greg Jericho prosecutes his case that the government’s wages growth predictions appear to be wishful thinking.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/aug/15/the-governments-wages-growth-predictionswishful-thinking
Jacinda Ardern has challenged Scott Morrison to explain his government’s position on climate change to Pacific leaders as Australia fends off attacks over its domestic emissions policies despite committing $800 million to address global warming in the region. Google.
australia-has-to-answer-to-pacific-arderns-climate-blast/news-story/a75b975eabac7938facc693912fa0039
Can Scott Morrison deliver on climate change in Tuvalu – or is his Pacific ‘step up’ doomed?
https://theconversation.com/can-scott-morrison-deliver-on-climate-change-in-tuvalu-or-is-his-pacific-step-up-doomed-121501
A former officer is trying to stop Victoria Police blocking the release of a report on the lead-up to James Gargasoulas killing six people in 2017.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/cop-fights-for-release-of-bourke-street-massacre-report-20190814-p52h50.html
Signs that a recession could be on the horizon sends investors heading to the exits, and sets up the Australian share market for steep losses.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-for-heavy-falls-as-wall-street-dives-on-recession-fears-20190815-p52h7z.html
The Dow plunged 800 points in the worst day of the year and Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve as investors repositioned for a dimming economic outlook.
https://outline.com/8t9FYs
Meanwhile Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that Trump might have finally twigged that his trade wars are hurting voters
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/trump-might-have-finally-twigged-his-trade-wars-are-hurting-voters-20190814-p52gyq.html
Jennifer Hewett writes that Trump can’t be trusted on this trade truce.
https://outline.com/xWTgUG
Peter Hannam reports that the justification for the $500 million Broken Hill water pipeline prioritised irrigators and all but ignored the environment, according to the project’s business case that has finally been released by the government.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/disdain-anger-as-broken-hill-pipe-business-case-finally-released-20190814-p52h20.html
Historian David Brophy tells us that we can be wary of China without blindly following the US into war.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-can-be-wary-of-china-without-blindly-following-the-us-into-war-20190813-p52gqv.html
New trade figures show China needs us as much as we need them, with Australia supplying a record 74 per cent of China’s imported iron ore.
https://outline.com/YHWxGB
The Catholic Church in Melbourne has pushed back against the Victorian government over legislation aimed at forcing priests to report admissions of child sexual abuse made during confession. On this stance Peter Fox has tweeted “They’ve learnt nothing. Confessional wasn’t conjured up by God, nor did Jesus come up with the idea. There is no mention of it in the bible. Its a ritual ‘invented’ by a man 700yrs ago. What sort of person would hide behind a religious ritual above protecting children from rape?”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/protect-children-without-infringing-on-religious-freedom-catholic-archbishop-says-20190814-p52h6o.html
Home Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo has said the public servant who leaked a top secret document he authored should be sent to jail, and he was “heartened” to hear police were closing in on a suspect.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6327873/leaker-of-top-secret-document-should-go-to-jail-pezzullo/?cs=14350
ASIO has warned against exempting journalists from national security laws, as police refuse to rule out charging a journalist for publishing leaked material reports Fergus Hunter.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/afp-commissioner-declines-to-rule-out-charges-for-news-corp-journalist-20190814-p52gw4.html
The AFR reports that more than a year after it was announced, there is still no sign of a $325 million biosecurity levy. Over to you Mr Littleproud.
https://outline.com/qBLvM3
Evidence is mounting that Sir John Kerr and the Palace had a close relationship amid Gough Whitlam’s dismissal, writes Professor Jenny Hocking.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/distortion-how-the-palace-airbrushed-sir-john-kerrs-memoirs-,12997
Individual Australians hold more than $100bn offshore, spread across more than 1.6m accounts, according to new taxation office data collected under an international cooperation agreement. Lots of letters have gone out from the ATO,
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/15/new-tax-data-reveals-australians-hold-100bn-in-offshore-accounts
Jennifer Duke reports that National Broadband Network chief executive Stephen Rue has refused to rule out hiking internet prices but rejected concerns that the $51 billion project could miss its financial targets as it enters its crucial last roll-out year. He says “NBN is a vital infrastructure project for Australia” so how come so much of it is shit?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/financially-strong-nbn-boss-rules-out-writedown-won-t-rule-out-price-hike-20190813-p52gss.html
Dana McCauley outlines how Graeme Samuel says governments bowing to the Pharmacy Guild ought to have learned from the other industry to have been safeguarded from pro-competition reforms – taxis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/discount-chemists-the-new-uber-former-accc-chief-backs-pharmacy-deregulation-20190814-p52gxz.html
The spending arms race at elite private schools is out of control writes Trevor Cobbald who says that taxpayer money for private schools denies much-needed resources for disadvantaged public schools.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/14/the-spending-arms-race-at-elite-private-schools-is-out-of-control
In the wake of the Sydney knife attack former NSW deputy police commissioner Nick Kaldas explains the important difference between what is terrifying and what amounts to terrorism.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/terrifying-but-not-terrorism-the-distinction-matters-in-the-clarence-street-tragedy-20190814-p52h3o.html
What’s Google up to now? Emma Koehn tells us that the small business ombudsman has asked the consumer watchdog to investigate Google’s advertising policies amid claims small businesses are being blocked from advertising on the site without a clear explanation.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/absolutely-unacceptable-business-fury-over-google-ad-policy-20190814-p52gvy.html
The number of students found to be cheating in assessments and exams increased by about 2000 per cent at the University of NSW when it moved resources from deterring cheating to detecting it. This will bring quite a few back to the field.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/cheating-found-at-unsw-up-by-2000-percent-as-new-detection-methods-used-20190814-p52gz4.html
The New York Times tells us about Trump struggles with an Asia in crisis.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/trump-struggles-with-an-asia-in-crisis-20190814-p52h3u.html
Here’s a worthy nominee for “Arsehole of the Week” . . .
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/p-plater-filmed-at-nearly-200km-h-before-crash-killed-police-officer-20190814-p52h0m.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe.
Cathy Wilcox on press freedom.
From Matt Golding.
A couple from Mark David.
Nice work from John Shakespeare.
Andrew Dyson and the church confessional law.
Zanetti on congestion.
Glen Le Lievre. Gloomy.
Alan Moir salutes the whistle blower.
Jon Kudelka and England’s secret weapon to control Steve Smith.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/667f5370ca70d6ced93a4e759b8bbbff?width=1024
From the US
This podcast of an interview overnight by Jonathon Agnew with Glenn McGrath and Andrew Strauss is worth a listen. Both men speak about their experiences losing their wives to Cancer. It’s longish but well worth investing the time to listen.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/tms-at-the-ashes/id205892240?i=1000446861835
It’s good to see the Democrat House in the US steadily going about doing the things people want their government to do:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-for-heavy-falls-as-wall-street-dives-on-recession-fears-20190815-p52h7z.html
It won’t be long now before people turning back to Labor to help them out of recession, I think it’s fair chance that Labor will be back when the recession is fonallly officially called upon.
I also think it is time for start calling out the liberal party for failing to deal with economy and soon we be forced to another early election.
‘Moscow Mitch’ is really catching on.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/pelosi-calls-mcconnell-moscow-mitch-as-she-recounts-bills-he-has-blocked/2019/08/14/01f7b2ce-bea4-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.html
It won’t be long now before people turning back to Labor to help them out of recession, I think it’s fair chance that Labor will be back when the recession is fonallly officially called upon.
I also think it is time for start calling out the liberal party for failing to deal with economy and soon we be forced to another early election.
You know it’s time.
Zoidlord @ #346 Thursday, August 15th, 2019 – 8:01 am
Unfortunately no. Scummo, the Murdorcs & the GRASPer droogs (like The Crank) can always buy enough of us to keep their incompetent snouts in trough.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/14/microplastics-found-at-profuse-levels-in-snow-from-arctic-to-alps-contamination
@rhwombat
Nah don’t think so. Liberals haven’t been in power while in a recession