Various stuff that’s happening

Sarah Henderson reportedly struggling in her Senate preselection comeback bid, plus yet more on the great pollster failure, and other things besides.

Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:

• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.

Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.

Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.

• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,701 comments on “Various stuff that’s happening”

  1. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 9:56 am

    Bernie Sanders is older than Joe Biden. Think about THAT for a while.

    Why?

    Surely it comes down to who is the best candidate voters are willing to accept.

  2. The US is really an oligarchy….a state run by the old. It will be run for the old too. Old people, old values, old money. The 20th century is long gone. Gone but obviously not forgotten. Pity.

  3. briefly says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 10:04 am

    The US is really an oligarchy….a state run by the old. It will be run for the old too. Old people, old values, old money. The 20th century is long gone. Gone but obviously not forgotten. Pity.

    Well, anyone older than 40 has spent more than half their life in the 20th C.

  4. Politics is a team sport.

    Indeed. You want to kick out people like Sanders and the people who share his ideals (or ask them to shut up and stay out of the way) then you are left with a small, low energy team and no chance of ever winning elections.

    Embrace Sanders and his followers. A good team has a diversity of players.

  5. “Bernie Sanders is older than Joe Biden. Think about THAT for a while.”

    There’s hardly an enormous gap between them though lol. Sanders is 77, Biden is 76. Trump is 73, so again there’s not a huge gap there either. To be honest, when the three major candidates are all 70+ I think it’s kind of ridiculous to be saying one is “too old” compared to the other two. They can all be reasonably called elderly people, that’s just the reality of it. Age is just a number. The fact that Trump is younger shows that his relative “youth” doesn’t in any way make him a more suitable president than the other two. Age really has nothing to do with it.

  6. Barney in Makassar @ #51 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:00 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 9:56 am

    Bernie Sanders is older than Joe Biden. Think about THAT for a while.

    Why?

    Surely it comes down to who is the best candidate voters are willing to accept.

    Sorry but I don’t subscribe to the theory that old people go on with their faculties and general health intact perfectly as they age.

    If you elect someone who will turn 80 in his 1st Term as President the odds are stacked against him. Look at Ronald Reagan. You really are gambling with the future of the country when you elect a geriatric.

    No matter how amazing you think they are.

  7. Age really has nothing to do with it.

    Yes it does, for the reasons I have outlined.

    They, Trump, Biden and Sanders, are ALL too old.

    Some people need to get the stars out of their eyes.

    Even Elizabeth Warren at 70 is at the upper limits of what I would accept.

    Who wants to be ruled by a Gerontocracy!?!

  8. The report noted the shift from Labor’s original fibre-to-the-premises model to the government’s mixed technology model, and said there were increased capital and maintenance expenses for certain connections under the Coalition’s rollout.

    “The technology mix for the NBN has diversified, meaning different users will receive different types of connections. This change will deliver varied outcomes for users, and some may shoulder higher costs or receive lower-quality services,” the report said.

    The government-owned NBN Co is required to achieve a 3.2 per cent return on investment to remain an off-budget asset rather than a liability, leading to “an inherent tension between the NBN’s strategic goals,” the infrastructure advisory body warned, saying it would potentially have to trade-off user outcomes to deliver the return.

    Look, I’m probably talking nonsense, but why doesn’t the govt spend Infrastructure money by upgrading the NBN, removing the need for a profit (because it’s like a national telephone service, not a private luxury), and enabling far more people to work from home or from the regions?

    My son does this, and only needs to go into the city office occasionally, but his NBN service is not always reliable.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nbn-customers-face-higher-prices-or-poorer-internet-connection-audit-warns-20190813-p52go7.html

  9. Simon Katich @ #55 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:10 am

    Politics is a team sport.

    Indeed. You want to kick out people like Sanders and the people who share his ideals (or ask them to shut up and stay out of the way) then you are left with a small, low energy team and no chance of ever winning elections.

    Embrace Sanders and his followers. A good team has a diversity of players.

    This is also disingenuous. Bernie’s ego should give way to people younger than him who also ‘share his ideals’. Hey, they may even have more energy than him!

  10. lizzie,
    To upgrade the NBN would be to admit that the Coalition had screwed the NBN pooch. Deliberately or otherwise. It’s not going to happen.

  11. “They, Trump, Biden and Sanders, are ALL too old.”

    Look, I actually honestly agree with that. But when comparing the three of them to one another it is crazy to suggest that one is too old compared to the other two. Either they are all too old or none of them are. Again I say that both the older blokes, Sanders and Biden, would make far better presidents than the younger Trump.

    Ok, so that’s not hard, I know lol.

  12. a r @ #63 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:19 am

    C@tmomma @ #58 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:15 am

    Who wants to be ruled by a Gerontocracy!?!

    Considering that the framers of the Constitution saw it fit to set a minimum age of 35 for being President at a time when the average life expectancy was something less than 45 years, Americans want that.

    Doesn’t it suggest that they thought it would never happen? A POTUS of 80+ years, that is.

  13. C@t

    The Coalition are absolutely determined to do the opposite to what is needed, and doubly so if it happens to be a Labor initiative. They muck everything up and then insist it was Labor who started it.

  14. Sorry but I don’t subscribe to the theory that old people go on with their faculties and general health intact perfectly as they age.

    Normally. And I worry about Biden. Sanders however comes across as sharp as a tack. As does Warren. I have an 80yo client. Far sharper than me (dont say it!) and works longer hours.

    Bernie’s ego should give way to people younger than him who also ‘share his ideals’. Hey, they may even have more energy than him!

    Sanders is their man (as well as Warren) in these primaries. They support him, and they give him money. Next time a younger option will come along to represent that group of democrat voters. It is not for you or me to tell them who their representative should be. But that is not what Briefly was saying. He wants all of that group to stay out of the candidate race and get behind his preferred candidate(s) and their policies. Well, there will be a time for that, but the Democrat presidential nominee primaries is not that time.

    Having said that I dont support Sanders to become the nominee. I still prefer Klobucher. Or Warren. But liking ORourke and Harris. The field needs to narrow. It is too crowded and only hurting each candidate and the party as a whole.

  15. C@t

    With everyone striving to live longer and healthier, and with current advances in medicine, I don’t think I agree with your definitely ageist attitude. Trump, unfortunately, is being supported by an army of sycophants who help to conceal his unsuitability (mental instability). If he were 20 years younger he’d still be the same. 🙁

  16. The gloss on Domingo is starting to wear thin following allegations of sexual harassment by eight female singers and one dancer. He was to appear in a San Francisco Opera production in October but management has canceled the performance. The way things are progressing, it wouldn’t surprise if a member of the Royal Family’s accused of sexual impropriety. Oh, I forgot about the Duke of York.

  17. Some people are pointing to Biden’s recent barrage of inarticulate statements as evidence of age-related cognitive decline. I think that’s a little unfair. Biden has always been an idiot.

  18. While we’re talking about the age of leaders…

    Australia’s Monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, is 93. NINETY THREE. If there is a discussion to be had about leaders being too old I think we should probably start with our own country rather than telling Americans what to do.

  19. I would have thought that after the debacle of Trump winning everything that both the Republican and Democratic Parties would have made significant changes to their selection of candidate processes but nothing has happened and so we are presented with the possibility of getting Trump, Sanders or Biden. I can understand the Republicans not doing much while Trump is the POTUS but surely the Democrats could have done something. There’s a reason Trump is now POTUS and it isn’t because he is a great candidate.

    Are the Democrats hiding a really high quality candidate that they are going roll out at a later date?

    There are continual rumours that Billary will enter the race after Primaries have started.

  20. C@tmomma:

    [‘Bernie’s ego should give way to people younger than him who also ‘share his ideals’. Hey, they may even have more energy than him!’]

    Agree. Bernie’s a nice bloke but – and without a hint of ageism – he’s too old and too left for the US electorate to accept him. Let the young ones have a go, even if Uncle Joe’s the front runner at the moment.

  21. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 10:31 am

    The complete scope of QEII’s duties as the Monarch of Australia is to agree with the Australian PM’s recommendations for GG and Premiers recommendations for G’s. That’s it. Exactly how isn’t she able to carry out those duties?

  22. This is a heart-warming message from a former Hillary Clinton advisor who now sees the strengths of Bernie Sanders as the Democratic nominee.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/peter-daou-bernie-sanders-critic-2016/

    “If you had told me in the spring of 2016 that three years later I’d be touting the merits of the Bernie Sanders campaign—taking flak from Hillary Clinton supporters for not being loyal enough to her—I would have laughed and asked what alternate reality you lived in. But life and politics have a way of taking unexpected turns, and here I am writing about the considerable strengths Sanders brings to the 2020 election.”

    “I see that Sanders is a strong front-runner for the 2020 Democratic nomination. He leads Trump in several match-up polls. He has millions of dedicated supporters. He is raising tens of millions of dollars from small donors. He is a seasoned campaigner with a presidential race under his belt.

    Virtually every state and national poll shows Sanders at or near the top of the Democratic field. Polls are fluid at this stage, but he is a known quantity, and his base of support is solid. His proven appeal to young voters and independents is a powerful asset, and his ability to deliver a well-crafted and unapologetic progressive message to Americans across the political spectrum is crucial if Democrats hope to take on an increasingly extremist GOP.”

  23. Bucephalus:

    [‘There are continual rumours that Billary will enter the race after Primaries have started.’]

    You’re a hoot. It must’ve taxed your cognitive functioning to come up with “Billary”.

  24. Bucephalus @ #910 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:37 am

    I would have thought that after the debacle of Trump winning everything that both the Republican and Democratic Parties would have made significant changes to their selection of candidate processes but nothing has happened and so we are presented with the possibility of getting Trump, Sanders or Biden. I can understand the Republicans not doing much while Trump is the POTUS but surely the Democrats could have done something. There’s a reason Trump is now POTUS and it isn’t because he is a great candidate.

    Are the Democrats hiding a really high quality candidate that they are going roll out at a later date?

    There are continual rumours that Billary will enter the race after Primaries have started.

    That dead cat don’t bounce, Compact Cow Head.

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 10:13 am
    Barney in Makassar @ #51 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:00 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 9:56 am

    Bernie Sanders is older than Joe Biden. Think about THAT for a while.

    Why?

    Surely it comes down to who is the best candidate voters are willing to accept.

    Sorry but I don’t subscribe to the theory that old people go on with their faculties and general health intact perfectly as they age.

    If you elect someone who will turn 80 in his 1st Term as President the odds are stacked against him. Look at Ronald Reagan. You really are gambling with the future of the country when you elect a geriatric.

    No matter how amazing you think they are.

    Sorry, but that’s just ageist claptrap!

    People can age and retain their mental faculties.

    I’m not advocating for anyone, just the basic principle and with people living and expected to work longer, there is no reason to exclude someone purely because of the number of times they’ve traveled around the Sun.

  26. I don’t care if I’m being called Ageist. My own parents, nearly 80 both have their marbles intact and continue to live independently in their own home. Doesn’t mean they have the stamina to run the country.

    I’m going to stick with my support for one of the younger candidates to get the nod to represent the Democrats.

  27. I would have thought that after the debacle of Trump winning everything that both the Republican and Democratic Parties would have made significant changes to their selection of candidate processes but nothing has happened….
    Are the Democrats hiding a really high quality candidate that they are going roll out at a later date?

    I agree to the first part. These ‘debates’ recently are a joke. And it is making otherwise good candidates look silly or absent. Dumb questions. Terrible format. I dont see the point.
    I dont mind the process (primaries). But the phenomenal amount of money required and being effectively wasted by candidates in this leadup is ridiculous.

    I think it is a quality field. And a diverse one. It should be a positive for the party, but if it drags on like this it wont turn out that way.

    I would have a 2 day conference. Let them give speeches. Interviews. Then some more intimate seminars. Maybe involve 2 or 3 candidates in a few polite seminars. Q&As. Dinner speeches. etc.

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 10:21 am

    a r @ #63 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:19 am

    C@tmomma @ #58 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 10:15 am

    Who wants to be ruled by a Gerontocracy!?!

    Considering that the framers of the Constitution saw it fit to set a minimum age of 35 for being President at a time when the average life expectancy was something less than 45 years, Americans want that.

    Doesn’t it suggest that they thought it would never happen? A POTUS of 80+ years, that is.

    Not at all.

    How many potential Presidential candidates have been held back because they are not yet 35?

    It shows they did consider age when considering who could be President and the only concern they had was with a lack of it.

    After all it is considered wisdom comes with age, so why would you want to advocate against that?

  29. The US primaries process is bizarre. The fact that they work so hard and spend so many hundred of millions to publicly maim the other candidates from their own party, before the wounded survivor then takes on a sitting president who – despite his patent incompetence and craziness – is going to be hard to dislodge shows such as lack of discipline. Why can’t they just suck it up and put forward say a Biden-Warren or Warren-O’Rourke ticket, with Bernie and others to have stated roles in an administration, as well as stated policies? Why can’t they refuse to be part of the blood sport and said – for the good of the nation and planet, this is our ticket and policies – and then focus all resources on taking trump down for the next 14 months. ego I guess. They make the LNP look disciplined and sane. The outcome will almost certainly be trump until 2024.

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:06 am

    I don’t care if I’m being called Ageist. My own parents, nearly 80 both have their marbles intact and continue to live independently in their own home. Doesn’t mean they have the stamina to run the country.

    I’m going to stick with my support for one of the younger candidates to get the nod to represent the Democrats.

    And that’s going to get them across the line¿ 😆

  31. briefly says:

    The splitterati will keep Trump in power. No doubt about that. We will all perish in Lib-kin Garden

    We will have perished long before that having expired after reading the word Lib-kin for the 1 millionth time.

  32. Bucephalus:

    [‘The complete scope of QEII’s duties as the Monarch of Australia is to agree with the Australian PM’s recommendations for GG and Premiers recommendations for G’s. That’s it. Exactly how isn’t she able to carry out those duties?’]

    Reference is made to s.59 of the Consitution:

    ‘The Queen may disallow any law within one year from the Govern-General’s assent, and such disallowance on being made known by the Governor-General by speech or message to each of the Houses of Parliament, or by Proclamation, shall annul the law from the day when the disallowance is so made.’

    Although disallowance by the monarch has never occurred, few would’ve envisaged that Kerr would’ve exercised his reserve powers. And, we still don’t know the extent to which the Queen was involved in the sacking of the Great Man. Incidentally, I see she’s holidaying at Balmoral, with Randy Andy. Normally she travels to church in a Range Rover (or the like) but on Sunday was seen with her son in a Daimler, the intent being obvious.

  33. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 10:21 am

    While we’re talking about the age of leaders…

    Australia’s Monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, is 93. NINETY THREE. If there is a discussion to be had about leaders being too old I think we should probably start with our own country rather than telling Americans what to do.

    You do understand what a Monarchy is, don’t you? 😆

  34. A good one from the Shovel:

    National Milk Crate Association Calls For Loosening Of Open Carry Laws

    The powerful NMCA has called for open-carry laws to be introduced in all Australian states, in the wake of the Sydney stabbing yesterday.

    NMCA president Dwayne LaCtose said Australians should be able to carry an unconcealed milk crate in public places as a means of self defense, noting that the Sydney attack was minimised because a man was openly carrying a milk crate.

    “The only way to stop a bad guy with a knife is with a good guy with a milk crate,” LaCtose said.
    ……..
    http://www.theshovel.com.au/2019/08/14/national-milk-crate-association-calls-for-loosening-of-open-carry-laws%EF%BB%BF/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=national_milk_crate_association_calls_for_loosening_of_open_carry_laws&utm_term=2019-08-14

  35. Whom ever takes the Democratic nomination will defeat Trump in 2020, but, I suspect, will have to cede the next nomination to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez when she turns 35 on October 13, 2024 – The Billery-Monster permitting of course.

  36. Douglas and Milko says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:18 am

    A good one from the Shovel:

    National Milk Crate Association Calls For Loosening Of Open Carry Laws

    The powerful NMCA has called for open-carry laws to be introduced in all Australian states, in the wake of the Sydney stabbing yesterday.

    NMCA president Dwayne LaCtose said Australians should be able to carry an unconcealed milk crate in public places as a means of self defense, noting that the Sydney attack was minimised because a man was openly carrying a milk crate.

    “The only way to stop a bad guy with a knife is with a good guy with a milk crate,” LaCtose said.
    ……..
    http://www.theshovel.com.au/2019/08/14/national-milk-crate-association-calls-for-loosening-of-open-carry-laws%EF%BB%BF/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=national_milk_crate_association_calls_for_loosening_of_open_carry_laws&utm_term=2019-08-14

    The knifeman was certainly lucky the public got to him before the police.

  37. Mavis Davis

    Uncle Joe will get slimed bigly in the attack ad campaign and they work unfortunately .His long long political past is littered with him supporting conservative points of view that are no longer so ‘fashionable’ . It will cripple any attempt at him promoting/supporting more ‘enlightened’ views in a campaign. I can just see the “Can you believe what he says today? ” “Can you trust him ? ” ads that follow from that.

  38. kaffeeklatscher says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:24 am

    Mavis Davis

    Uncle Joe will get slimed bigly in the attack ad campaign and they work unfortunately .His long long political past is littered with him supporting conservative points of view that are no longer so ‘fashionable’ . It will cripple any attempt at him promoting/supporting more ‘enlightened’ views in a campaign. I can just see the “Can you believe what he says today? ” “Can you trust him ? ” ads that follow from that.

    I once believed in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy, but I learnt and adjusted my views, just as I have learnt new things throughout my life and adjusted my views accordingly.

  39. a r says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:26 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #82 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 11:10 am

    After all it is considered wisdom comes with age

    Wisdom also goes with age.

    If you accept that a lower bound makes sense, the same reasoning tends to support an upper-bound as well. The sweet-spot is in the middle, not at one extreme or the other.

    Obviously those involved in the foundation of the USA disagreed with your point.

  40. A Green for the Monarchy? What’s wrong with that? The British Monarchy has long-standing green credentials, especially compared with our current ‘rulers’.

  41. The global mining giant Glencore has failed in an attempt to force the Australia Taxation Office to surrender Paradise Papers documents which it claimed would breach the secrecy of communications with its lawyers.

    On Wednesday the high court unanimously ruled that legal professional privilege does not grant Glencore a right to stop use of the documents, which the tax office told the court it needed to assess the mining giant’s tax obligations.

    Victory for Glencore would have represented a major break with the rest of the common law world and created alarm among regulators, who are already angry at the use of legal professional privilege to stop documents being unearthed during investigations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/14/glencore-fails-to-prevent-tax-office-using-paradise-paper-documents?CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1565746155

  42. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:34 am

    A Green for the Monarchy? What’s wrong with that? The British Monarchy has long-standing green credentials, especially compared with our current ‘rulers’.

    It’s a point often raised against Charles when arguing against him assuming the throne.

  43. kaffeeklatscher:

    [‘Uncle Joe will get slimed bigly in the attack ad campaign and they work unfortunately .His long long political past is littered with him supporting conservative points of view that are no longer so ‘fashionable’.]

    Until recently I thought Joe had the best chance of taking it up to Trump but I’m now not so sure, for the reasons (among others) you articulate. In his defence, with age usually comes wisdom, but I don’t think it will be enough. Maybe it’s time to resurrect Hilliary, on condition she doesn’t refer to half of the electorate as deplorable.

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