Various stuff that’s happening

Sarah Henderson reportedly struggling in her Senate preselection comeback bid, plus yet more on the great pollster failure, and other things besides.

Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:

• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.

Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.

Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.

• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,701 comments on “Various stuff that’s happening”

  1. His long long political past is littered with him supporting conservative points of view that are no longer so ‘fashionable’ . It will cripple any attempt at him promoting/supporting more ‘enlightened’ views in a campaign.

    It’s bizarre to suggest that the upcoming U.S. election will be decided on matters of viewpoints, policies, trust, or past performance. Those aspects didn’t matter in 2016 (Trump trailed bigly in all of them), and they won’t matter in 2020. 2020 is a referendum on Trump; nothing else even rates.

    Barney in Makassar @ #96 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 11:33 am

    Obviously those involved in the foundation of the USA disagreed with your point.

    Bucephalus will be around shortly to tell you that you’re above making such facile arguments. 🙂

  2. Barney

    The ‘populist’ papers mocked Charles (and Phillip, who also worked for conservation), but they were ahead of their time. When we all burn up, someone might realise it.

  3. Barney in Makassar:

    [‘I once believed in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy, but I learnt and adjusted my views, just as I have learnt new things throughout my life and adjusted my views accordingly.’]

    But the difference is that your early beliefs aren’t documented and you’re not standing for the POTUS.

  4. Let’s remember who will be make a profit from the Welfare Card. It is a way of siphoning govt funds from the taxpayer into the LNP.

    The Liberal National Party (‘LNP’) Welfare Card programme is really a LNP rort for the benefit of the Liberal and National Parties and their members, donors and supporters. Indue Pty Ltd, the corporation awarded the contract to manage the Welfare Card programme and to operate its underlying systems, is a corporation owned by Liberal and National Party members and that donates to various Liberal and National Party branches around Australia. The former chairman of Indue is none other than former LNP MP Larry Anthony who is the son of former Liberal Country Party Deputy Prime Minister Doug Anthony. Anthony now holds his shares in Indue in his corporate family trust managed by Illalangi Pty Ltd.
    Other companies now owned by Larry Anthony, or by the corporate trustee of his family trust, Illalangi Pty Ltd, work under ‘sub’ contracts for Indue itself and make their profits from dealings with Indue in the course of Indue performing its contracts with the LNP Government. These corporations are SAS Consulting Group Pty Ltd – a political lobbying group that counts Indue as a client – and Unidap Solutions Pty Ltd – a digital IT services corporation that provides Indue, as well as the current LNP Government directly, with various IT services. Larry Anthony is also current president of the National Party of Australia, that is, the ‘N’ in ‘LNP’.

    The Welfare Card programme does not produce savings for the government but adds another level of administrative bureaucracy and cost on top of the current welfare payments system.

    https://theaimn.com/lnp-welfare-card-true-facts-exposed-corruption-disguised-philanthropy/

  5. a r says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:42 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #96 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 11:33 am

    Obviously those involved in the foundation of the USA disagreed with your point.

    Bucephalus will be around shortly to tell you that you’re above making such facile arguments.

    You’re the one trying to impose a more modern way of thinking on those who lived nearly 250 years ago.

  6. Barney in Makassar

    Unfortunately that truth in a sensible world counts for SFA in attack ad campaign world. John Kerry a genuine medal winning Vietnam vet got was successfully attack ad slimed over his service record when in the same campaign draft avoiding pisshead Bush got a pass on his ‘service’ . That is the reality in Attack Ad Campaign world 🙁

    Mavis Davis
    I too thought he was the one to do it but the avenues I’ve seen opening up re attack ads have put that on ice. Can’t see any of the others doing it. If their economy starts to tank I reckon Joe will be in to win though, a safe pair of hand, an old wise head and all that. Very attractive in bad times.
    As for the booing and hissing over age, perhaps it is being used as a more publicly acceptable reason to give to reject a particular candidate ? 🙂

  7. Barney in Makassar @ #90 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 11:23 am

    Douglas and Milko says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:18 am

    A good one from the Shovel:

    National Milk Crate Association Calls For Loosening Of Open Carry Laws

    The powerful NMCA has called for open-carry laws to be introduced in all Australian states, in the wake of the Sydney stabbing yesterday.

    NMCA president Dwayne LaCtose said Australians should be able to carry an unconcealed milk crate in public places as a means of self defense, noting that the Sydney attack was minimised because a man was openly carrying a milk crate.

    “The only way to stop a bad guy with a knife is with a good guy with a milk crate,” LaCtose said.
    ……..
    http://www.theshovel.com.au/2019/08/14/national-milk-crate-association-calls-for-loosening-of-open-carry-laws%EF%BB%BF/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=national_milk_crate_association_calls_for_loosening_of_open_carry_laws&utm_term=2019-08-14

    The knifeman was certainly lucky the public got to him before the police.

    Or not? He was calling out things like – shoot me , shoot me, I want to fuckn die – which as you allude would certainly have been the case if the cops had caught him.

    I seem to remember when cops needed to meet some height / weight criteria, and was there also a running thing – 100 yards in X? Anyway, that was before Maccas.

  8. “I’ve heard it all now. A Green supporting the Monarchy for Australia.”

    That better not have been directed at me lol. I’m about as pro-Republic as they come. If it were up to me I’d abolish the monarchy straight away without a second thought.

  9. Barney in Makassar @ #105 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 11:48 am

    You’re the one trying to impose a more modern way of thinking on those who lived nearly 250 years ago.

    Oh, are we still on founding fathers? I was just referring to your assertion that wisdom comes with age. We don’t know if that was actually their way of thinking either.

    All I was saying is that if a person, today, accepts that a lower bound makes sense because wisdom comes with age, then that same person should also accept that an upper bound (or threshold of additional scrutiny, as is commonly done with drivers licenses) also makes sense because beyond a certain point wisdom also diminishes with age.

    If the goal is to maximize wisdom, then you remove both extremes from the bell curve. Founding fathers need not apply.

  10. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 11:44 am

    Barney in Makassar:

    [‘I once believed in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy, but I learnt and adjusted my views, just as I have learnt new things throughout my life and adjusted my views accordingly.’]

    But the difference is that your early beliefs aren’t documented and you’re not standing for the POTUS.

    They are now! 😆

    I understand 21st C politics does handle nuance well and it would be a challenge, but it doesn’t matter who the candidate is the Right will always find irrelevancies and try and make them an issue.

  11. Terrible display of Toxic Masculinity in Sydney yesterday

    Seriously? That’s your take from the day? Proud of your contribution to the discussion on the events?

  12. “The complete scope of QEII’s duties as the Monarch of Australia is to agree with the Australian PM’s recommendations for GG and Premiers recommendations for G’s. That’s it. Exactly how isn’t she able to carry out those duties?”

    There’s far more to it than that and you know it. She has the power to disallow any bill within a year that the GG gives their assent to. The Monarchy is also one of the three components of the Parliament of Australia, the other two being the House and the Senate. Wisely, she doesn’t use it, but she does have enormous power over us.

    As for the age argument though, you’ve actually made my point for me. Although I hate the monarchy with a passion and would abolish it immediately if I could, I’m not going to lie or pretend that I think that the Queen has gone senile or made any poor judgement because of her advanced age. Ultra conservatives – usually the type of people who are monarchists – are some of the very same people who are arguing that Sanders is too old to lead the US.

    Age isn’t why they hate Sanders, it’s just a distraction. They hate him because he’s a threat to the far right establishment.

  13. On Tuesday’s edition of CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360,” Republican strategist and Never Trump conservative Rick Wilson blasted President Donald Trump for his petty feud with former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci

    “I think Anthony gambled, went all-in on Trump,” said Wilson. “

    “But as Anthony found, the shocking revelation that Donald Trump is a faithless person in every dimension, the guy cheated or shanked every person in his life, wives, contractors, business partners, clients, the country and so the shocking revelation Trump is a bad dude, maybe Anthony isn’t that quick. There is no coming back after this guy puts you in the dirt and after you committed everything to him, you’re going to get screwed over.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/rick-wilson-blasts-soft-handed-manbaby-trump-hes-never-taken-a-punch-or-given-one/

  14. Andrew Laird @ReclaimAnglesea
    11m
    Sickening to hear the @ScottMorrisonMP government say in substance that Australia’s destructive addiction to #coal is non-negotiable and that vulnerable Pacific nations should accept that. A mixture of extreme arrogance and #climatesciencedenial #abcnews

  15. The age argument against Sanders is a red herring. People who don’t like him have problems with someone who has been a principled opponent of inequality and corporate power for his entire career. That kind of consistency and doggedness offends people who have made their peace with slippery centrists who stand for nothing but their own advancement.

  16. a r says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 12:01 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #105 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 11:48 am

    You’re the one trying to impose a more modern way of thinking on those who lived nearly 250 years ago.

    Oh, are we still on founding fathers? I was just referring to your assertion that wisdom comes with age. We don’t know if that was actually their way of thinking either.

    Well considering the Constitution is the relevant document where else would the conversation be?

    You’re talking about something that would require an amendment, so is not relevant to a discussion about the situation as it exists now.

  17. Pacific Island Nations are quite happy to accept money from China which dwarves Australia in total eCO2 emissions and growth in emissions without demanding climate change action and dollars from them -complete hypocrisy.

  18. Considering that the framers of the Constitution saw it fit to set a minimum age of 35 for being President at a time when the average life expectancy was something less than 45 years, Americans want that.

    This is not a meaningful observation to make.

    Average life expectancy is heavily skewed by infant mortality, and various other factors that didn’t particularly apply to wealthy people who reached adulthood.

    Having survived until the age of 21, a male member of the English aristocracy in this period could expect to live:

    1200–1300: to age 64
    1300–1400: to age 45 (because of the bubonic plague)
    1400–1500: to age 69
    1500–1550: to age 71

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#Variation_over_time

    35 would not have been considered old for a candidate in 18th century America.

  19. Victoria says: Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 12:24 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Slowly but surely they will all turn as they realise the truth cannot be hidden indefinitely.

    ************************************************************************

  20. Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 12:34 pm

    Pacific Island Nations are quite happy to accept money from China which dwarves Australia in total eCO2 emissions and growth in emissions without demanding climate change action and dollars from them -complete hypocrisy.

    So they can only accept aid from Countries with a similar or smaller population to Australia?

    Also it’s a shame that Australia has been cutting its foreign aid budget.

    Maybe the Pacific Countries wouldn’t then be so susceptible to Chinese advances?

  21. AR is on the money today.

    2020 is a referendum on Trump. Nothing else matters.

    In fact the risk is that the 58% of Americans who disapprove of Trump will not show up at the polls, or waste their vote on a Libertarian or Green, because of some big target folly like Medicare for All or the Green New Deal – worthy as those policies are, they are ripe for scaremongering.

    Safe old Joe Biden has safe hands – so safe that he doesn’t know what Twitter is. Boring, dull old Joe. Sounds like exactly the message those 58% want to hear.

  22. Bucephalus:

    You wrote in an earlier post that all the Queen’s required to do is sign off on GGs, Gs. I cited s.59 of the Consitution, as did Firefox indirectly, yet you’re still maintaining the argument she has no express powers. I repeat, the Queen has the power to disallow any law. She has of course not exercised her reserve powers, but they’re there, in black & white, in the Constitution. Please stop playing games.

  23. Firefox @ #113 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    “The complete scope of QEII’s duties as the Monarch of Australia is to agree with the Australian PM’s recommendations for GG and Premiers recommendations for G’s. That’s it. Exactly how isn’t she able to carry out those duties?”

    There’s far more to it than that and you know it. She has the power to disallow any bill within a year that the GG gives their assent to. The Monarchy is also one of the three components of the Parliament of Australia, the other two being the House and the Senate. Wisely, she doesn’t use it, but she does have enormous power over us.

    I have several monarchist aquaintances, of various political pursuasions. The main thing they have in common is that their justification for why Australia should keep the Queen as our head of state is that no Australian can be trusted with the position.

    Given how poorly Australia is travelling at present, I am beginning to wonder if they may actually have a point 🙁

  24. For you serious music afficionados.

    I was going through some old VHS videotapes today and came across Ken Russell’s brilliant biopic on Gustav Mahler, entitled strangely enough: “Mahler”

    It is up on Youtube in six parts, with French subtitles or you can watch another version dubbed in Italian. It’s a great introduction to the master of early 20th century orchestral and vocal music.

    Russell also made similar films on Fred Delius, (with a cameo appearance by a mischievious Percy Grainger), Edward Elgar, Tchaikovsky, Debussy, Vaughn Williams and Liszt.

  25. Nicholas @ #118 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 12:25 pm

    The age argument against Sanders is a red herring. People who don’t like him have problems with someone who has been a principled opponent of inequality and corporate power for his entire career. That kind of consistency and doggedness offends people who have made their peace with slippery centrists who stand for nothing but their own advancement.

    Sorry, but this is just garbage. My quarrel is with Sanders’ age. Full stop.

    And do you know why I am telling the truth? Because my original comment referenced Joe Biden and Donald Trump as well.

    Get good, Nicholas.

  26. “No, she doesn’t have enormous powers over us.

    So you want a President Palmer?”

    According to our constitution, she does.

    I want an AUSTRALIAN to be our head of state. Someone we elect, not someone who’s only there because they were born into royalty in another country. If Palmer were to become President, at least he would have been elected to the position, rather than inheriting the position. Based on the recent election where he spent tens of millions of dollars to secure a couple of percent of the vote, he’d have to be FAAAAR richer than he is to con a majority of Australians into voting for him, and even then most of us aren’t that stupid.

    Remember that garbage we went through recently over section 44 of the constitution where many MPs were disqualified for having a dual citizenship? Well the Queen is the head of the damn country but ISN’T an Australian citizen! She isn’t even an English citizen, purely because a sovereign cannot be a subject of themselves. One rule for us, a totally different one for her.

  27. Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 12:34 pm
    Pacific Island Nations are quite happy to accept money from China which dwarves Australia in total eCO2 emissions and growth in emissions without demanding climate change action and dollars from them -complete hypocrisy.

    ______________________________-

    I met another horse-shitter like you yesterday. Expressed ignorant and stupid opinions as facts based totally on prejudice without a genuine fact in sight. Must be a right-wing disease – a sort of HIV of the brain.

  28. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 12:48 pm

    The Monarch can’t change laws. Can’t make laws. Can only act as a Constitutional Circuit Breaker in very limited circumstances. Appoints GG’s and G’s on the advice of the PM and Premiers/Ministers of State and in 118 years has never used the power to disallow a law.

    How many hours a year do you think she spends on deviously trying tyrannically rule over Australia?

    I’d much rather an unelected Monarch with no political skin in the game to act as our Constitutional Circuit Breaker and appointer of GG’s and G’s than President Palmer or Hanson.

  29. Bucephalus doesn’t mention the MASSIVE turnaround China is implementing in its Energy Supply. Going from zeroes in Renewable Energy to heroes in a very short time.

    So, for him to quote the CO2 emissions of China now is disingenuous in the extreme.

  30. The Chinese are acutely aware that the atmosphere in many of their cities is terrible…….much of it comes from legacy coal-burning power plants, other industrial plants and the result of very rapid growth in the last 20-40 years. A place like Shanghai has, at times, very bad air. Having said this, there is ample evidence from the growing number of electric vehicles, the “greening of large areas and the electrification of thousands of kilometres of rail, and a promise from Beijing that “things will get better”, that action is being taken. Time will tell if this works.
    However, before we get too smug about it all, they are dealing with 1.3 billion people as opposed to our paltry 25 million +-………………….When I see the smoke from the Latrobe Valley power stations and paper mills disappear – some of these have been spewing out smoke since the 1920s – disappear, then the death of coal as a source of energy will be certain.
    Hazelwood is gone and it will not be long before Yallour and Loy Yang go the same way. Lignite is cheap but dirty fuel. Ask the Germans who are happy to close down lignite mines despite availability and cheapness to extract.
    Oh, and not one commercial coal mine left in the UK as I understand it – though it is thought the UK sits on hundreds of years of quality black coal.
    Some just don’t get the message.

  31. “It’s a point often raised against Charles when arguing against him assuming the throne.”

    only by the murdoch media – but relentlessly. The good news is that it looks as though his sons both have similarly progressive (informed) views and politics and even if the murdoch hacks succeeded in getting charlie skipped over, the next king will speak out on such issues. they are hopping into Harry now.

    the murdoch media will start pushing for a republic, or champion a glorious revolution with some distant cousin with right-wing views to assume the throne 🙂

  32. lizzie @ #115 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 12:23 pm

    Andrew Laird @ReclaimAnglesea
    11m
    Sickening to hear the @ScottMorrisonMP government say in substance that Australia’s destructive addiction to #coal is non-negotiable and that vulnerable Pacific nations should accept that. A mixture of extreme arrogance and #climatesciencedenial #abcnews

    Same same. Climate Science Denial is extreme arrogance in itself, either by virtue of believing that you actually know more than the results of fully substantiated scientific facts, or that the science isn’t relevant because you have been *gifted faith*, which is the arrogance of all arrogances, that you have been chosen and your inspired faith tells you otherwise and overrides all else.

  33. Tricot says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 1:02 pm

    Particulate and SMOG pollution is a very different issue to that of eCO2 emissions.

    Never stops the Warmies conflating the two issues.

    Simple solution to China and India’s Asian Brown Cloud problem – lots of Australian Gas.

  34. Never stops the Warmies conflating the two issues.

    So now we have a dismissive contemptuous put-down of the people who actually, like, believe in what the Climate Science is telling us, and basically what we can see with our own eyes going on around the world right now?

    How puerile can you get? About this puerile.

  35. Bucephalus:

    Of course, she can’t initiate legislation; I never suggested that. She can, though, “disallow any law”. If that’s not a very substantive power, I don’t know what is. To be repetitive, no one thought that Kerr would exercise his reserve powers, nor Game in NSW – but they both did. And it’s naive to suggest that the monarch hasn’t interfered in the Australian polity. We don’t know the extent thereof, due mainly to historians having their FOI requests denied; for instance, the correspondence between Kerr and the palace at the time of the dismissal. And, when James Scullin put Isaac Isaacs’ name forward in 1930 recommending him as the first Australian-born governor-general, George V was as angry as a cut snake.
    It’s not clear as to whether it was due to the nominee being born in Australia or because he was a Jew or a combination of both.

  36. Bucephalus doesn’t mention the MASSIVE turnaround China is implementing in its Energy Supply. Going from zeroes in Renewable Energy to heroes in a very short time.
    So, for him to quote the CO2 emissions of China now is disingenuous in the extreme.

    Not to mention cumulative emissions since 1850. And per capita emissions. And percent of renewable power….

  37. Climate Science Denial is extreme arrogance in itself, either by virtue of believing that you actually know more than the results of fully substantiated scientific facts, or that the science isn’t relevant because you have been *gifted faith*, which is the arrogance of all arrogances, that you have been chosen and your inspired faith tells you otherwise and overrides all else.

    Yep. God’ll Fix It!

    And there are people that actually believe this. 🙄

  38. Simon Katich @ #141 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Bucephalus doesn’t mention the MASSIVE turnaround China is implementing in its Energy Supply. Going from zeroes in Renewable Energy to heroes in a very short time.
    So, for him to quote the CO2 emissions of China now is disingenuous in the extreme.

    Not to mention cumulative emissions since 1850. And per capita emissions. And percent of renewable power….

    But he has a one word put-down for those of us who take the issue seriously. How good is that!?!

  39. “I’ve heard it all now. A Green supporting the Monarchy for Australia.”

    I’m not a monarchist, but until australia shows a lot more political maturity, I don’t think having a titular/pretend head of state who lives in another country is the worst model of government – particular if they are a decent human being and independent of party politics. the coming windsors are Ok so far as I am concerned.

    I fear we’d elect a dickhead like trump, eddy mcguire or some former pollie more times than we scored a william deane or quintin bryce. When Geelong got direct election of their mayor they punted for Darryn Lyons and Melbourne went with for Robert Doyle – nationally we’d end up with Shayne Warne. Then again, we might end up with Magda Szubanski, Ahn Do or Andrew Denton.

    there are bigger fish to fry and greater reforms needed that the republic.

  40. beguiledagain @ #128 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 12:50 pm

    For you serious music afficionados.

    I was going through some old VHS videotapes today and came across Ken Russell’s brilliant biopic on Gustav Mahler, entitled strangely enough: “Mahler”

    It is up on Youtube in six parts, with French subtitles or you can watch another version dubbed in Italian. It’s a great introduction to the master of early 20th century orchestral and vocal music.

    Russell also made similar films on Fred Delius, (with a cameo appearance by a mischievious Percy Grainger), Edward Elgar, Tchaikovsky, Debussy, Vaughn Williams and Liszt.

    Seriously good tip off, thanks. I’ve struggled with Ken Russell, except for the Elgar, which I think is wonderful. You’ve convinced me to revisit. Last week we had a Percy Grainger encore (a lively seaside affair for violin and piano) by the visiting Russian born American pianist Kirill Gerstein, who said how delighted he was to be playing Grainger down under, especially after the Greig PC, and made mention of their relationship.

    Interestingly, Percy’s father John designed the Princes Bridge in Melbourne.

  41. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 1:26 pm

    Game and Kerr acted completely appropriately in both situations and their decisions were overwhelming ratified by the voters at the subsequent elections.

  42. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 1:31 pm

    Given it is a Victorian issue I don’t see why the Federal Government has to have an opinion. Has the Government expressed an opinion supporting the Catholic Church in this case?

  43. What kind of forgiveness is that metered out by an appointed agent of some hypothesised deity to someone who confesses to abusing children while at the same time refusing to disclose the crime to authorities.

    Because sacrosanct, or sacred. Not the little children, but the seal of the confessional. You know who would be weeping.

    Begone with the lot of them, and the confessional too.

    What kind of arrogance is that?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-14/melbourne-catholic-archbishop-petrer-comensoli-on-confessional/11409944

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