Call of the board: Melbourne

More gory detail on the result of the May 18 federal election, this time focusing on Melbourne, where an anticipated election-winning swing to Labor crucially failed to materialise.

Time for part four in the series that reviews the result of the May 18 election seat by seat, one chunk at a time. As will be the routine in posts covering the capital cities, we start with a colour-coded map showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area by means explained in the first post in this series. Click for an enlarged image.

Now to compare actual election results to those predicted by a demographic linear regression model, to help identify where candidate or local factors might be needed to explain the result. I now offer a new-and-improved form of the model that includes interaction effects to account for the differences in demographic effects between the cities and the regions. The utility of the change, if any, will become more apparent when I apply it to regional seats, which confounded the original version of the model. The coefficients and what-have-you can be viewed here – the table below shows the modelled predictions and actual results for Labor two-party preferred, ranked in order of difference between the result and the prediction of the model.

The main eyebrow-raisers are that the model anticipates a stronger performance by Labor in nearly every Liberal-held seats, to the extent that blue-ribbon Higgins and Goldstein are both rated as naturally highly marginal. While this could prove a portent of things to come in these seats, it might equally reflect a model leaning too heavily on the “secular/no religion” variable to cancel out the association between income and Liberal support in the inner cities.

As in Sydney, the numbers provide strong indications of incumbency advantages, with both Labor and Liberal members tending to outperform the model and thus appear at opposite ends of the table. I suspect this reflects both the obvious explanation, namely personal votes for sitting members, and a lack of effort by the parties into each other’s safe seats. A tendency for parties to perform more modestly when a seat is being vacated is not so overwhelming as to prevent strong results relative to the model for Labor in Jagajaga and Liberal in Higgins.

With that out of the way:

Aston (Liberal 10.1%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): Aston attracted a lot of discussion after the 2004 election when the Liberals recorded a higher two-party vote than they did in their jewel-in-the-crown seat of Kooyong. Now, for the first time since then, it’s happened again, and by a fairly substantial margin (the Liberal-versus-Labor margin in Kooyong having been 6.7%). As illustrated in the above table, the swing places Alan Tudge’s margin well beyond what the seat’s demographic indicators would lead you to expect.

Bruce (Labor 14.2%; 0.1% swing to Labor): Located at the point of the outer suburbs where the Labor swing dries up, cancelling out any half-sophomore effect that may have been coming Julian Hill’s way after he came to the seat in 2016.

Calwell (Labor 18.8%; 0.9% swing to Liberal): Among the modest number of Melbourne seats to swing to the Liberals, reflecting its multiculturalism and location at the city’s edge. Maria Vamvakinou nonetheless retains the fifth biggest Labor margin in the country.

Chisholm (Liberal 0.6%; 2.3% swing to Labor): Labor’s failure to win Chisholm after it was vacated by Julia Banks was among their most disappointing results of the election, but the result was entirely within the normal range both for Melbourne’s middle suburbs and a seat of its particular demographic profile. The swing to Labor was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, which may or may not have something to do with this being the slightly less Chinese end of the electorate.

Cooper (Labor 14.6% versus Greens; 13.4% swing to Labor): With David Feeney gone and Ged Kearney entrenched, the door seems to have slammed shut on the Greens in the seat formerly known as Batman. After recording high thirties primary votes at both the 2016 election and 2018 by-election, the Greens crashed to 21.1%, while Kearney was up from 43.1% at the by-election to 46.8%, despite the fact the Liberals were in the field this time and polling 19.5%. In Labor-versus-Liberal terms, a 4.2% swing to Labor boosted the margin to 25.9%, the highest in the country.

Deakin (Liberal 4.8%; 1.7% swing to Labor): While Melburnian backers of the coup against Malcolm Turnbull did not suffer the retribution anticipated after the state election, it may at least be noted that Michael Sukkar’s seat swung the other way from its demographically similar neighbour, Aston. That said, Sukkar’s 4.8% margin strongly outperforms the prediction of the demographic model, which picks the seat for marginal Labor.

Dunkley (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 2.7%; 1.7% swing to Labor): Together with Corangamite, Dunkley was one of only two Victorian seats gained by Labor on any reckoning, and even they can be excluded if post-redistribution margins are counted as the starting point. With quite a few other outer urban seats going the other way, and a part-sophomore effect to be anticipated after he succeeded Bruce Billson in 2016, it might be thought an under-achievement on Chris Crewther’s part that he failed to hold out the tide, notwithstanding the near universal expectation he would lose. However, his performance was well beyond that predicted by the demographic model, which estimates the Labor margin at 6.6%.

Fraser (Labor 14.2%; 6.1% swing to Liberal): Newly created seat in safe Labor territory in western Melbourne, it seemed Labor felt the loss here of its sitting members: Bill Shorten in Maribyrnong, which provided 34% of the voters; Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, providing 29%; Tim Watts in Gellibrand, providing 20%; and Brendan O’Connor in Gorton, providing 16%. The newly elected member, Daniel Mulino, copped the biggest swing against Labor in Victoria, reducing the seat from first to eleventh on the national list of safest Labor seats.

Gellibrand (Labor 14.8%; 0.3% swing to Liberal): The city end of Gellibrand followed the inner urban pattern in swinging to Labor, but the suburbia at the Point Cook end of the electorate tended to lean the other way, producing a stable result for third-term Labor member Tim Watts.

Goldstein (Liberal 7.8%; 4.9% swing to Labor): Tim Wilson met the full force of the inner urban swing against the Liberals, more than accounting for any sophomore effect he might have enjoyed in the seat where he succeeded Andrew Robb in 2016. Nonetheless, he maintained a primary vote majority in a seat which, since its creation in 1984, has only failed to do when David Kemp muscled Ian Macphee aside in 1990.

Gorton (Labor 15.4%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): The swing against Brendan O’Connor was fairly typical of the outer suburbs. An independent, Jarrod Bingham, managed 8.8%, with 59.2% of his preferences going to Labor.

Higgins (Liberal 3.9%; 6.1% swing to Labor): One of many blue-ribbon seats that swung hard against the Liberals without putting them in serious danger. Nonetheless, it is notable that the 3.9% debut margin for Katie Allen, who succeeds Kelly O’Dwyer, is the lowest the Liberals have recorded since the seat’s creation in 1949, surpassing Peter Costello’s 7.0% with the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Labor returned to second place after falling to third in 2016, their primary up from 14.9% to 25.4%, while the Greens were down from 25.3% to 22.5%. This reflected a pattern through much of inner Melbourne, excepting Melbourne and Kooyong.

Holt (Labor 8.7%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): The populous, northern end of Holt formed part of a band of south-eastern suburbia that defied the Melbourne trend in swinging to Liberal, causing a manageable cut to Anthony Byrne’s margin.

Hotham (Labor 5.9%; 1.7% swing to Labor): The swing to third-term Labor member Clare O’Neil was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, with the lower-income Vietnamese area around Springvale in the south went the other way.

Isaacs (Labor 12.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): What I have frequently referred to as an inner urban effect actually extended all along the bayside, contributing to a healthy swing to Mark Dreyfus. The Liberal primary vote was down 7.4%, partly reflecting more minor party competition than in 2016. This was an interesting case where the map shows a clear change in temperature coinciding with the boundaries, with swings to Labor in Isaacs promptly giving way to Liberal swings across much of Hotham, Bruce and Holt.

Jagajaga (Labor 6.6%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Jenny Macklin’s retirement didn’t have any discernible impact on the result in Jagajaga, which recorded a modest swing to her Labor successor, Kate Thwaites.

Kooyong (Liberal 5.7% versus Greens): Julian Burnside defied a general Melburnian trend in adding 2.6% to the Greens primary vote, and did so in the face of competition for the environmental vote from independent Oliver Yates, whose high profile campaign yielded only 9.0%. Labor was down 3.7% to 16.8%, adrift of Burnside’s 21.2%. But with Josh Frydenberg still commanding 49.4% of the primary vote even after an 8.3% swing, the result was never in doubt. The Liberal-versus-Labor two-party margin was 6.7%, a 6.2% swing to Labor.

Lalor (Labor 12.4%; 1.8% swing to Liberal): The area around Werribee marks a Liberal swing hot spot in Melbourne’s west, showing up as a slight swing in Lalor against Labor’s Joanne Ryan.

Macnamara (Labor 6.2%; 5.0% swing to Labor): Talked up before the event as a three-horse race, this proved an easy win for Labor, who outpolled the Greens 31.8% to 24.2%, compared with 27.0% to 23.8% last time, then landed 6.2% clear after preferences of the Liberals, who were off 4.6% to 37.4%. The retirement of Michael Danby presumably explains the relatively weak 5.0% primary vote swing to Labor in the seven booths around Caulfield and Elsternwick at the southern end of the electorate, the focal point of its Jewish community. The result for the remainder of the election day booths was 9.7%.

Maribyrnong (Labor 11.2%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Nothing out of the ordinary happened in the seat of Bill Shorten, who probably owes most of his 5.0% primary vote swing to the fact that there were fewer candidates this time. Typifying the overall result, the Liberals gained swings around Keilor at the electorate’s outer reaches, while Labor was up closer to the city.

Melbourne (Greens 21.8% versus Liberal; 2.8% swing to Greens): The Greens primary vote in Melbourne increased for the seventh successive election, having gone from 6.1% in 1998 to 22.8% when Adam Bandt first ran unsuccessfully in 2007, and now up from 43.7% to 49.3%. I await to be corrected, but I believed this brought Bandt to within an ace of becoming the first Green ever to win a primary vote majority. For the second election in a row, Bandt’s dominance of the left-of-centre vote reduced Labor to third place. On the Labor-versus-Liberal count, Labor gained a negligible 0.1% swing, unusually for a central city seat.

Menzies (Liberal 7.2%; 0.3% swing to Labor): Very little to report from Kevin Andrews’ seat, where the main parties were up slightly on the primary vote against a smaller field, and next to no swing on two-party preferred, with slight Liberal swings around Templestowe in the west of the electorate giving way to slight Labor ones around Warrandyte in the east.

Scullin (Labor 21.7%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Third-term Labor member Andrew Giles managed a swing that was rather against the outer urban trend in his northern Melbourne seat.

Wills (Labor 8.2% versus Greens; 3.2% swing to Labor): The Greens likely missed their opportunity in Wills when Kelvin Thomson retired in 2016, when Labor’s margin was reduced to 4.9%. Peter Khalil having established himself as member, he picked up 6.2% on the primary vote this time while the Greens fell 4.3%. Khalil also picked up a 4.2% swing on the Labor-versus-Liberal count, strong even by inner urban standards, leaving him with the biggest margin on that measure after Ged Kearney in Cooper.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,431 comments on “Call of the board: Melbourne”


  1. mundo says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 11:41 am

    What was different about thus period?

    The DLP was gone and the Greens had not yet risen so the Liberals had to get there on their own. Now they have the Greens to attack Labor from the left while the Liberals go for the right..

  2. In 2016 labor ran a boomer of a campaign with a laser like focus on Medicare and a small number of other issues around the fringes.

    The result ? Labor picked up 14 ( ?) seats and the supposedly “ unpopular” Shorten almost rolled the supposedly “ people’s favourite “ Turnbull.

    In 2019 labor ran what turned out to be in hindsight a shocker of a campaign and labor under Shorten went backwards.

    What happened in the three years between the two elections and how the campaign wheels came off the previously “ dominant “ labor machine are still being determined. To put the blame on Shorten and or a particular policy or suite of policies at this time is pointless. Let those with skin in the game take their time to roll through the review and then hopefully all will be revealed.

    Big questions need to be answered around the direction of the campaign, its focus and most importantly policy development over the last three years. Shadow ministers, shadow cabinet and caucus as a whole need to have the light shined on them. Head office and those officials who conceived and oversaw the last three years and the campaign also need to be looked at very very closely. How did labor get it so wrong ? I have no idea how labor ended up with a PV of 33.34% but to blame a single person or policy at this point in time is useless. The labor party, its members and those who voted for labor deserve better than uninformed biased finger pointing so soon after the election and with a review still under way.

    Labor needs to get its act together and make sure lessons are learnt because simply blaming the voter for getting it wrong will result in years in opposition.

  3. If you haven’t already come across it, Microsoft have a free app which will amaze you.

    https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/ai/seeing-ai

    It’s called Seeing AI and will read to you anything that you aim at it with your mobile phone, even in the most miniscule type front and essentially anything that you can’t read with your naked eye

    It was developed appropriately enough, by a blind Microsoft programmer in England.

    It even reads type that I have difficulty reading, even with a magnifier. If you aim it out of your car window as you drive along it will read the roadside signs. Astonishing.

    My wife who is legally blind could not operate without it.

  4. What was different about this period

    An alternative view might be that Hawke and Keating undertook the economic reforms that Fraser was too timid to undertake. These reforms were often counterintuitive for a Labor government but civil war was prevented by the union movement agreeing that improved economic conditions benefited everyone

  5. mundo says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 11:41 am


    ‘Labor has come to power from Opposition and governed strongly for more than one term just once in since WW1 – when Hawke came to power in 1983.’
    What was different about thus period?

    They promised little of substance except a number of inquiries.

  6. How many times have you all heard it said by politicians of all varieties “Australian voters aren’t stupid” (or there abouts)?
    They are stupid, and lazy and addicted to gambling.
    Electing Morrison and the shonks (a dodgy pub band) to another three years, without some semblance of Senate control on the advice of the multitude of political tipsters and form experts, masquerading as journalists, is already manifesting a cry of “how good is that” not. Something unable to be answered without camouflage, lies and deceit by a mob claiming a mandate to bolster self-interest and cronyism.
    “how bad is that” will be the catchcry of hoodwinked electorate on realising Morrison doesn’t have a mandate to even control his own cabinet.
    Morrison is already be adding up his severance pay and looking for the next gig albeit with a newly assembled backing group.
    We have been duped by a motley crew of unoriginal sins with a depth only measurable in nanometers .
    Shorten doesn’t look so bad now!

  7. Hmmm.

    Mark Jacka @themarkjacka
    18h
    Can @ScottMorrisonMP do anything but lie?
    Here we have the Liar from the Shire, lying again.
    2 days ago the Liar announced new measures & he expects us to believe that kids have written to him about the changes & Australia Post delivered the letters in a matter of hours?

    Not necessarily agreeing with Morrison, but what about email?

  8. The only things Scott Morrison does are those that are of benefit to himself and his kind. School Kids are just a convenient artifice to disguise something darker. So a plastic straw ban to disguise lack of action on Global Heating and Climate Change.

  9. What is different now in regard to politics?

    One thing that has certainly changed is the publics trust in the political process and the major party duopoly.

    It is clear that more and more of the general public have a justifable disregard and lack of trust in either of the major parties or processess. Which was reflected in the highest non-duopoly vote at the last election.

    The recent Democracy 2025 report once again provides the data on how many people really think that the political process and major political parties in Australia are shit and really don’t listen or act in the nations and people’s interests. It has nose dive over the last couple of decades.

    https://www.democracy2025.gov.au/
    https://www.democracy2025.gov.au/documents/Democracy2025-report1.pdf (report pdf)

    Despite being recently published, the interviews and data in this report are actually based on surveys prior to the Turnbull/Morrison BS and the recent election.

    Both of which I would guess just lowered people’s trust and expectations even more.

    Some of the ALP partisans in particular get themselves in a knot when trying to explaim how they are so much better and not same same as the reactionaries.

    Then more news adds to the justifable contempt for both parties, when stories about the pre-election deal by the ALP-LNP duopoly to protect themselves from being held to account in the way that the constitution was meant to.

    ‘Grubby Deal’ Protects Criminal, Bankrupt MPs Being Kicked Out Of Parliament

    https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a190807fsjdw/grubby-deal-protects-criminal-bankrupt-mps-being-kicked-out-of-parliament-20190807

    Exclusive: Labor and Coalition politicians stitched up a deal to protect themselves from being kicked out of Parliament.
    In April, in the dying hours of the last Parliament, with the Federal Budget being debated and the election about to be called, Labor and Coalition politicians got the deal done.

    Labor senator Deb O’Neill said the elimination of 15 MPs and Senators over citizenship issues had “plagued this Parliament and this democracy.”

    But the solution agreed with the Coalition essentially sidelines the High Court, not just on citizenship but on every other Constitutional ground for politicians to be disqualified.

    “Basically it’s another grubby deal between the Government and the Opposition to protect their own in the Parliament,” independent MP Andrew Wilkie told 10 News First.

    ——————————–

    Here’s the list of how ALP-LNP duopoly MP’s have voted against any sort of accountability for themselves.

    For creating a federal Anti-Corruption Commission

    The federal government should create a national integrity commission similar to the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) to detect, investigate and prevent corruption across all Commonwealth departments and agencies

    https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/policies/86

    The only prediction I have for three years hence is that going on current attitudes and actions, the Australian public will have even greater contempt for the numbskulls in both major parties who behind the facade of parliamenet, stitch up deals with each other to protect their mates business interests and puff up their future consultancy opportunities or lobbying positions.

    The impacts of climate change and the climate emergency will be further along as well.
    Some towns and regions may be pretty much abandoned in the meantime due to this.

    Apparently supporters of the numbskulls in the duopoly ALP-LNP will still be here banging on about pointless shit and doing not much aside from providing more trite platitudes and ignoring the issue. Certainly doesn’t seem that they will be asking the questions and putting their own parties on notice that the same old crap will not help the people or nation deal with coming problems, we and the whole world face.

  10. C@t

    To all complaints about energy, transport, infrastructure, housing, rubbish, Scott’s little band of shysters reply “But we’re already doing something”. As you say, distraction from their lack of action on Global Heating and Climate Change .

  11. Hawke ’83
    ‘For the facts are there – stark and grim – for every Australian to see Seven years of Fraserism have produced:

    The highest number of Australians thrown out of work in our history; and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression fifty years ago.

    One in ten Australians out of work‚ a figure no Australian would have believed possible a few years ago, and which no Australian Government should ever be forgiven for creating.

    One in four young Australians looking for work being unable to find work.

    Their policies have produced the highest level of sustained inflation in Australian history; the highest personal taxation levels; the highest interest rates; the highest number of business bankruptcies on record.

    For the first time since World War II, the percentage of Australians owning or buying their own home is falling – and falling, drastically.

    For the first time in living memory, Australian living standards – the real buying power of wages and salaries are falling.

    Underlying everything – the statistics of economic disaster, the roll call of broken promises, the scandals, the 18 Ministers who have resigned, retired early, been suspended or dismissed- is the politics of division, the politics of confrontation, which threaten to poison the very well-springs of the national life, the true, decent, Australian way of life.’

    Hawke understood that the key to getting peoples attention was to tell them how they were being dudded.
    Shorten and co had no clue and a goldmine of material.
    Imagine it;
    ‘For the facts are there – stark and grim – for every Australian to see Six years of Abbott/Turnbull/ Morrison have produced: etc…………

  12. Barney in Makassar @ #1154 Tuesday, August 13th, 2019 – 12:21 pm

    mundo says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 11:41 am


    ‘Labor has come to power from Opposition and governed strongly for more than one term just once in since WW1 – when Hawke came to power in 1983.’
    What was different about thus period?

    They promised little of substance except a number of inquiries.

    I think if you read the text of Hawke’s election campaign speech you might want to revise your recollection…..

  13. One thing that has certainly changed is the publics trust in the political process and the major party duopoly.
    It is clear that more and more of the general public have a justifable disregard and lack of trust in either of the major parties or processess.

    Achieving this is a strategic goal by the Coalition. It either disengages the voting public or divides them into isolated camps. Both make winning elections easier when you can have powerful and wealthy friends in the media and the corporate world able to assist in capturing those groups.

    That journalists across the board propagate the ‘bad as each other’ meme shows the parlous state of our media.

  14. lizzie @ #1159 Tuesday, August 13th, 2019 – 12:52 pm

    C@t

    To all complaints about energy, transport, infrastructure, housing, rubbish, Scott’s little band of shysters reply “But we’re already doing something”. As you say, distraction from their lack of action on Global Heating and Climate Change .

    Yup. He’s got a glib rejoinder for all seasons.

    Though I was just in the car and there was a report on The World Today about the appearance before the Senate Communications Committee by the three heads of the media organisations-9Fairfax, the ABC and News Corp. It was heartening to hear these guys at the top of their game skewer the Morrison government eloquently but effectively. They said we live in a Silent State of Secrecy now and while it’s not quite a Police State it is worrying how recent laws have clamped down on journalists and the public’s right to know.

    They also said that the AFP raids on Annika Smethurst and the ABC have had an immediate chilling effect on whistleblowers and that a number of stories they were working on have had to be shelved because the whistleblowers have told them it’s not worth it to keep persevering.

    My only hope is that these media outlets do a 180 on their bias in favour of the government and give Labor a fair shake and also find any means that they can to expose the malfeasance of the government and hold them to account.

  15. Just saying that Seth Abramson’s Twitter timeline is a cracker today…

    EVIDENCE41/ BREAKING NEWS (NYT): Jeffrey Epstein “Spoke Often” with Trump and Kushner Friend Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and MBS “Visited” Epstein Many Times

    Wow… it was just *yesterday* that even mentioning possible Epstein-MBS ties caused @thedailybeast and @NYMag to drag me.

  16. Abramson pimping his book…

    EVIDENCE44/ The PROOF OF CONSPIRACY excerpt that I’ve asked Macmillan to publish tomorrow is about Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, MBS, and ongoing counterintelligence investigations. Given tonight’s news, you’re not going to want to miss it. A preorder link:

  17. Quoll @ #1159 Tuesday, August 13th, 2019 – 12:51 pm

    It is clear that more and more of the general public have a justifable disregard and lack of trust in either of the major parties or processess. Which was reflected in the highest non-duopoly vote at the last election.

    Many people apparently no longer understand that when you have a choice of two possibilities – one of which is demonstrably much worse than the other – you are supposed to choose the least worst option, and then work to improve things from there.

    Just throwing your rattle out of the cot achieves very little.

  18. EVIDENCE97/ Now that more than *16,000* of you have voted in this recent poll, I can reveal that 88% of you got it correct: Jeffrey Epstein had not 1, or 2, or 5, or 7, but *fourteen* phone numbers for Donald Trump in his black book.

    I’ll repeat that: 14.

  19. Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison have taken the level of transparency to a level of no transparency.
    The hallmark of all right wing, unfair, self-serving governments is lack of transparency.
    The LNP excel in lack of transpaency.
    Obfuscation, so well developed by Howard and Costello, has been elevated to a level that entiely justifies the utter contempt and distrust in which governments are now regarded at all levels in this country.
    Labor are not without fault in this regard.
    Make a list of the publicly funded commissions and inquires that never result in transpaency.
    A commission to identify and report on and about the level of corruption, with no limits to its powers of investigation and reporting is ths only way a voting public can be persuaded to again hold regard for elected government in Australia.
    The Morrison cabinet and government is full of crooks, protected and aided by lack of transparency.

  20. That would be the same Bob Hawke whose government existed in a completely different media and social media environment to that which the current Labor Party has to exist in today. So anyone who thinks that Labor can win by just being like Hawkie again is seriously misinformed. Labor have to figure out how to thrive in the CURRENT media environment in order to be successful.

  21. doyley says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 11:53 am

    They won’t release the report or if they do it will be heavily redacted so as to be useless. Nothing will change unless the Unions want it to change.

  22. SK

    That journalists across the board propagate the ‘bad as each other’ meme shows the parlous state of our media.

    State ? Currently in the same state it has always been in. Meeja ownership is about power, especially political power. The meeja magnates enjoy using it and Labor is not of the right class to expect support from the plutocrat blighters except in “emergencies” .

  23. The question now remains, is how safe is Epsteins friend Ghislane Maxwell?
    It is not too difficult to imagine what her fate will be.
    No doubt she may have already made some deals which included actually giving up Epstein himself. Not sure how much protection she has.
    Interesting times continue unabated…….

  24. It’s always good for the public to get a good taste of what the ALp really think of voters:

    Goll says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 12:23 pm

    “They are stupid, and lazy and addicted to gambling.”

    and yet they wonder why they lose after trying to fence sit on Adani and play to the inner city Doctors Wives while lying to the Coal Miners in the Hunter Valley, Gippsland and Queensland.

    And most voters don’t give a rats arse about about the inner workings of the Liberals and gender balances of Ministries that the ALP think is so important.

    Keep up the good work.

  25. Victoria @ #1173 Tuesday, August 13th, 2019 – 1:46 pm

    The question now remains, is how safe is Epsteins friend Ghislane Maxwell?
    It is not too difficult to imagine what her fate will be.
    No doubt she may have already made some deals which included actually giving up Epstein himself. Not sure how much protection she has.
    Interesting times continue unabated…….

    She is no longer in America. I think she is either in London or Paris now. I would go for Paris myself because that is where Epstein was returning from when he was arrested at the airport. Probably returning from a visit to his best friend and co-conspirator, allegedly, Ms Maxwell.

  26. So anyone who thinks that Labor can win by just being like Hawkie again is seriously misinformed.

    Yes. Yet there are some things to be learned from that era.

    Hawke and Keating had to deal with shock jocks. Keatings efforts with Lawsie are well documented. Now sure, Lawsie is different to Hadley and Jones. However the principle of engaging with radio personalities remains (choose a few that are less overtly partisan – ones that are actually interested in the wellbeing of their listeners). Plibersek went on Jones at budget time and did well.

    And Hawke knew well the power of Murdoch, learning the lessons from ’75. That does not mean the current ALP leaders should do what Hawke did. However, leaving the Murdoch space completely uncontested (hoping it no longer has as much relevance in todays diverse media landscape – as I once thought too) is no longer an option.

  27. C@t

    She could be anywhere. If she manages to survive. She could be the one who actually brings down this whole house of cards.
    As I said. Interesting times

  28. Hawke and Keating undertook the economic reforms that Fraser dare not touch. Many of these were counterintuitive for a Labor Government including a massive selloff of public enterprises. They were able to do this without a civil war by convincing the union leaders that their members were best served through the Prices and Wages Accord and budget restraint

  29. I am surprised an ABC news item this morning, on-line, about the the huge disparity – there for all to see now – between funding received by some very few rich schools and those at the bottom – has not raised more comment here.
    And before anyone gets stuck into me about “class envy” and all that crap, I am happy to support anyone in the country sending their kid to any school they want – Government, Catholic or non-systemic Private Schools .
    What I am opposed to is the fact that the private schools, through their faith connections, tax benefits, borrowing and very generous benefactors can spend millions on some great facilities while – and this is the rub – the taxpayer is chipping in to cover a big slab of their recurrent operational expenses – teachers’ salaries and the like. This allows these said schools to shift funding to the really wonderful campuses many of them have. There is also a small amount of government funding also going into infrustucture.
    One irony of this is that some Catholic schools, are among the richest group and some Catholic schools are among the poorest in the county. Same applies over on the non-Catholic side where “Baptist” this or that school also rate among the most well off . No point going on about CofE Schools here or Presbyterian/Methodist Schools there also being up among the most well-off. That is obvious.
    The second irony, is that for all this extra money, including tax-payer stuff, the actual education return does not seem to have improved – and according to the item – standards are going backwards.
    The most annoying thing is that neither political party is willing to bite the bullet on this one…….the rich schools have been getting richer from at least 2009 according to the article.
    A lot has been said about the lobbying influence of the NRA in the US, but golly they have a real good soul-mate in those here claiming fee paying schools should get their snouts in the public money trough as well.
    To think all this “State Aid to Private Schools” stuff started with Menzies funding a few science labs, when it was thought the Russians were going to run all over us, or kill us all from deathrays from Sputnik or whatever back then.

  30. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 10:07 am
    “If we needed any proof …

    Joshua Badge
    @joshuabadge
    2m
    This month the @australian has published 13 negative articles about trans people—that’s an anti-trans article every day. This hostile campaign not only contributes to suicide and self harm rates among trans youth but also provides far-right groups an opportunity to mobilise”

    Is the media not meant to report negative stories because it might upset someone?

    Have the stories been incorrect?

    Is it really a hostile campaign?

    I wouldn’t have thought that the people he thinks are at risk would read the Australian and it is paywalled so, much like the Folau tweet, it’s an infinitesimally small group to worry about.

  31. Alpha Zero says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 10:12 am
    “That schools funding article is sickening!”

    I’ve read it. It clearly showed that the government sector receives a lot more government funding per student than the private sector and that independent schools receive much less than Catholic or Government Schools. It also revealed that the big headline spending on capital in the article is privately funded through fees, donations and loans.

    It also demonstrated that the State Government system are very poor asset managers.

    It was only sickening if you don’t think people should be allowed to spend their own money how they wish.

    The most interesting thing in the article was the claim that the extra-spending in private schools didn’t have any effect on educational outcomes but that it was unfair because they had the extra spending. They can’t have it both ways – either the extra spending in private schools is worth the money or it isn’t. If it isn’t worth it then why complain?

  32. It’s always good for the public to get a good taste of what the ALp really think of voters:…“They are stupid, and lazy and addicted to gambling.”

    And PHON and Nationals voters have only kind words for Greens and ALP voters?
    Thankfully their MPs are nicer…like when George Christensen posted a picture of himself pointing a handgun and tweeted something about Greenie punks.

  33. Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 2:09 pm

    “And PHON and Nationals voters have only kind words for Greens and ALP voters?
    Thankfully their MPs are nicer…like when George Christensen posted a picture of himself pointing a handgun and tweeted something about Greenie punks.”

    Tell me – how did Christensen go in the election despite the dreadful personal smear campaign against his relationship status and private travels and the gun picture? The Swing? Negative?

  34. briefly says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 10:56 am

    “The single biggest issue among voters who decided the election – voters who swung to the Class Enemy – was and remains jobs and its corollary, the cost of living.

    The researchers who delivered this analysis tracked households in marginals for several months. They absolutely nailed the shift in votes and the respective PVs for the parties. Absolutely totally fucking nailed it.”

    Who are these analysts and why isn’t Mr Bowe using their data now?

  35. SK,
    I wasn’t advocating that Labor vacate the media field that is not prepared to give them a proverbial tummy rub, quite the opposite as you pointed out with Tanya going on Jones’ show and not taking a backward step. She can be a perfumed steamroller, can Tanya. It’s also a roll that Terri Butler seems to be getting comfortable being in. It’s also what Richard Marles realised he had to do as well with his appearances on Pyne and Marles on Sky. It’s what ‘DJ Albo’ does when he goes to places and does things a pollie wouldn’t normally do. It’s what Labor has to do across the board.

    No, I was just trying to say that, even though Hawkie had shock jocks like Lawsie to deal with, as you correctly pointed out, and Channel 9 controlled by the Goanna too, I think it’s fair to say that he didn’t have to contend with being assailed from all angles like today’s Labor are.

  36. People can send their children to elite private schools if they wish. They can also buy luxury yachts. Howeer, there is no requirement for the public purse to subsidise either choice.

  37. C@tmomma

    ……he didn’t have to contend with being assailed from all angles like today’s Labor are.

    Probably because ,if my memory serves me, Labor made a few changes that were sweet for the main media networks at the time . They showed their appreciation with kind words. Not much in the way of such favors for Labor to offer these days.

  38. Tell me – how did Christensen go in the election despite the dreadful personal smear campaign against his relationship status and private travels and the gun picture? The Swing? Negative?

    I am confused. You started saying that ALP members and voters should show opposing voters respect, now you are advocating they go around threatening to shot and generally demeaning people of opposing views? Which is it?

    The only time I mentioned Christensens relationship was to say he looked happy and I was genuinely happy for him. All MPs should welcome scrutiny of their travel expenses.

  39. Tricot says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 2:02 pm

    1. You can’t have it both ways – either the extra money spent by the private schools is effective and therefore should be replicated in the public sector or it isn’t effective (which is the claim so often rolled out) and therefore quit your whining.

    2. What is your solution to the extra-spending in private schools?

    3. Interestingly they excluded remote schools that have massive amounts spent per student but the outcomes are shocking so they get excluded because that makes the government system look worse.

    4. I give the article credit for showing that recurrent government funding per student is more per student in government schools than in Catholic schools than Independent Schools and that the vast majority of capital spending in Private Schools is privately funded – not government.

  40. SA State transport earlier today had an industry briefing on upcoming projects in SA. The obvious message was “don’t worry, work is coming”. To be fair I thought the briefing was well done and choice of projects was realistic. But the obvious implication is that the SA State government thinks the SA economy needs stimulating.

  41. kaffeeklatscher @ #1187 Tuesday, August 13th, 2019 – 2:29 pm

    C@tmomma

    ……he didn’t have to contend with being assailed from all angles like today’s Labor are.

    Probably because ,if my memory serves me, Labor made a few changes that were sweet for the main media networks at the time . They showed their appreciation with kind words. Not much in the way of such favors for Labor to offer these days.

    Yes, one of Keating’s greatest failures. Didn’t happen under Hawke PM.

  42. Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 2:30 pm

    I don’t think that Greens voters are his target market.

    Goll made a general statement about all voters. Significant difference to the Christensen thing.

    You might be pure as the driven snow on questioning Christensen’s relationship status and travel arrangements but the vast majority of posters here thought and said or inferred the worst.

  43. Socrates the economy in all states needs stimulating.

    There is no way the federal budget will balance; you don’t get that by pinching dimes off the unemployed. If the deficit spending was removed now the economy would free fall.

    It will be interesting to see how that little lie is handled.

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