Call of the board: Sydney (part two)

A second, even closer look at the electoral lay of the land in the Sydney region at the May 18 federal election.

On reflection, my previous post, intended as the first in a series of “Call of the Board” posts reviewing in detail the result of the May 18 election, was deficient in two aspects. The first is that patterns in the results estimated by my demographic model were said to be “difficult to discern”, which can only have been because I didn’t look hard enough. In fact, the results provide evidence for remarkably strong incumbency effects. Of the 12 Liberals defending their seats in the Sydney area, all but Tony Abbott outperformed the modelled estimate of the Liberal two-party vote, by an average of 4.0%. Of the 15 Labor members, all but two (Julie Owens in Parramatta and Anne Stanley in Werriwa) outperformed the model, the average being 3.4%.

The other shortcoming of the post was that it did not, indeed, call the board – a now-abandoned ritual of election night broadcasting in which the results for each electorate were quickly reviewed in alphabetical order at the end of the night, so that nobody at home would feel left out. You can find this done for the Sydney seats over the fold, and it will be a feature of the Call of the Board series going forward.

Banks (Liberal 6.3%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): After winning the seat for the Liberals in 2013 for the first time since its creation in 1949, David Coleman has now scored three wins on the trot, the latest by comfortably his biggest margin to date: 6.3%, compared with 2.8% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2016. In a post-election account for the Age/Herald, Michael Koziol reported that Labor’s national secretariat and state branch were at loggerheads over the seat late in the campaign, with the former wishing to devote resources to the seat, and the latter recognising that they “didn’t stand a chance”.

Barton (Labor 9.4%; 1.1% swing to Labor): Located around the crossover point where the inner urban swing to Labor gave way to the outer urban swing to Liberal, Barton recorded a slight swing to Labor that was perhaps boosted by a sophomore effect for incumbent Linda Burney.

Bennelong (Liberal 6.9%; 2.8% swing to Labor): A fair bit has been written lately about Labor’s struggles with the Chinese community, particularly in New South Wales, but that did not stop the nation’s most Chinese electorate recording a reasonably solid swing to Labor. This perhaps reflected the quality of Labor’s candidate, neurosurgeon Brian Owler, but was also typical of a seat where Malcolm Turnbull had played well in 2016, when it swung 2.8% to the Liberals.

Berowra (Liberal 15.6%; 0.8% swing to Labor): Most of this outer northern Sydney seat is in the outer part of the zone that swung to Labor, barring a few lightly populated regions out north and west. However, Liberal member Julian Leeser is what I will call a half-sophomore – a first-term incumbent, but one who succeeded a member of the same party (in this case Philip Ruddock), so there was no reversal of the sitting member advantage. So the 0.8% swing to Labor is about par for the course.

Blaxland (Labor 14.7%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): The anti-Labor swing suffered by Jason Clare was fairly typical for Sydney’s south-west.

Bradfield (Liberal 16.6%; 4.5% swing to Labor): Apart from the exceptional cases of Warringah and Wentworth, this was the biggest swing against the Liberals in New South Wales. However, given it was only fractionally lower in neighbouring North Sydney, that’s unlikely to be a reflection on sitting member Paul Fletcher, instead reflecting the electorate’s affluence and proximity to the city. The seat also recorded the state’s biggest swing to the Greens, at 2.0%.

Chifley (Labor 12.4%; 6.8% swing to Liberal): Ed Husic suffered Labor’s biggest unfavourable swing in Sydney (and the second biggest in the state after Hunter), after enjoying the second biggest favourable swing in 2016 (after Macarthur).

Cook (Liberal 19.0%; 3.6% swing to Liberal): As noted in the previous post, Scott Morrison enjoys the biggest Liberal margin in New South Wales relative to what might be expected from the electorate’s demographic composition. Only part of this can be explained by a prime ministership effect, as his 3.6% swing ranked only twelfth out of the 47 seats in New South Wales.

Dobell (Labor 1.5%; 3.3% swing to Liberal): The two seats on the Central Coast behaved similarly to most of suburban Sydney in swinging solidly to the Liberals, but there was enough padding on the Labor margin to save Emma McBride in Dobell, a marginal seat that lands Labor’s way more often than not.

Fowler (Labor 14.0%; 3.5% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Chris Hayes suffered a swing unremarkable by the standards of western Sydney, or perhaps slightly at the low end of average.

Grayndler (Labor 16.3% versus Greens; 0.5% swing to Labor): As illustrated in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s personal popularity continues to define results in Grayndler, where the Labor margin is well out of proportion to demographic indicators. Whereas the Greens hold the largely corresponding state seats of Balmain and Newtown, in Grayndler they struggle to harness enough of the left-of-centre vote to finish ahead of the Liberals. They just managed it on this occasion, as they had previously in 2010 and 2016, outpolling the Liberals 22.6% to 21.8% on the primary vote, narrowing to 24.2% to 23.8% after the exclusion of three other candidates. Albanese cleared 50% of the primary vote for the first time since 2007, helped by a smaller field of candidates than last time, and had a locally typical 1.5% two-party swing against the Liberals.

Greenway (Labor 2.8%; 3.5% swing to Liberal): The swing against Labor’s Michelle Rowland was typical for middle suburbia, and roughly reversed the swing in her favour in 2016.

Hughes (Liberal 9.8%; 0.5% swing to Liberal): Craig Kelly did rather poorly to gain a swing of only 0.5% – as a careful look at the results map shows, the boundary between Hughes and Cook marks a distinct point where Labor swings turn to Liberal ones. The demographic model suggests Kelly to be the third most poorly performing Liberal incumbent out of the 13 in the Sydney area, ahead of Tony Abbott (Warringah) and Lucy Wicks (Robertson).

Kingsford Smith (Labor 8.8%; 0.2% swing to Labor): It was noted here previously that Matt Thistlethwaite strongly outperforms the demographic model, but the near status quo result on this occsion did little to contribute to that. This seat was roughly on the geographic crossover point between the Labor swings of the city and the Liberal swings of the suburbs.

Lindsay (LIBERAL GAIN 5.0%; 6.2% swing to Liberal): One of five seats lost by Labor at the election, and the only one in Sydney. Like the others, Lindsay was gained by Labor in 2016, with Emma Husar scoring a 1.1% margin from a 4.1% swing. This was more than reversed in Husar’s absence, with Liberal candidate Melissa McIntosh prevailing by 5.0%. The 6.2% swing against Labor was the biggest in the Sydney area, and produced a Liberal margin comparable to Jackie Kelly’s strongest.

Macarthur (Labor 8.4%; 0.1% swing to Labor): To repeat what was said in the previous post: Labor strongly outpolled the demographic model in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. The swing to Labor, tiny though it was, ran heavily against the trend of urban fringe seats across the country. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign compared with last time, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid. Macarthur was one of six seats in New South Wales contested by One Nation, whose 8.6% seemed to be drawn equally from Labor and Liberal.

Mackellar (Liberal 13.2%; 2.5% swing to Labor): Jason Falinski’s northern beaches seat participated in the swing to Labor in inner and northern Sydney, though in this case it was a fairly modest 2.5%, perhaps reflecting Falinski’s half-sophomore effect. A 12.2% vote for independent Alice Thompson caught most of the combined 14.9% for three independents in 2016, leaving the large parties’ vote shares little changed.

Macquarie (Labor 0.2%; 2.0% swing to Liberal): A sophomore surge for Labor member Susan Templeman surely made the difference here, with the 2.0% swing to the Liberals being below the outer urban norm, and just short of what was required to take the seat.

McMahon (Labor 6.6%; 5.5% swing to Liberal): The swing against Chris Bowen was well at the higher end of the scale and, typically for such a result, followed a strong swing the other way in 2016, in this case of 7.5%. This was among the six seats in New South Wales contested by One Nation, whose 8.3% contributed to a 7.4% primary vote swing against Bowen, and perhaps also to the size of the two-party swing.

Mitchell (Liberal 18.6%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Where most safe Liberal seats in Sydney were in the zone of inner and northern Sydney that swung to Labor, Mitchell is far enough west to encompass the crossover point where Labor swings gave way to Liberal ones. This translated into a modest 0.8% swing to Liberal member Alex Hawke, and very little change on the primary vote.

North Sydney (Liberal 9.3%; 4.3% swing to Labor): Trent Zimmerman’s seat caught the brunt of the inner urban swing to Labor, the 4.3% swing to Labor being the state’s fourth highest after Warringah, Wentworth and Bradfield, the latter of which just shaded it. Labor managed a hefty 8.3% gain on the primary vote, largely thanks to the absence of Stephen Ruff, who polled 12.8% as an independent in 2016. The one independent on this occasion was serial candidate Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, a former Democrats member of the state upper house, who managed only 4.4%.

Parramatta (Labor 3.5%; 4.2% swing to Liberal): Parramatta marks the crossover point where the Liberal swing in western Sydney begins, producing a 4.2% swing against Labor’s Julie Owens that only partly unwound the 6.4% swing she picked up in 2016.

Reid (Liberal 3.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The Liberals maintained their remarkable record in this seat going back to 2013, when they won it for the first time in the seat’s history, by limiting the swing to Labor to a manageable 1.5%. While the 3.2% margin is only modestly higher than that predicted by the demographic model, it was achieved despite the departure of two-term sitting member Craig Laundy, who is succeeded by Fiona Martin.

Robertson (Liberal 4.2%; 3.1% swing to Liberal): Similarly to neighbouring Dobell, the Central Coast seat of Robertson swung 3.1% to the Liberals, in this case boosting the margin of Lucy Wicks.

Sydney (Labor 18.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): The inner urban swing to Labor added further padding to Tanya Plibersek’s margin. The Greens continue to run third behind the Liberals, who outpolled them by 26.6% to 18.1%. As is the case in Grayndler, this presumably reflects local left-wing voters’ satisfaction with the incumbent.

Warringah (INDEPENDENT GAIN 7.2% versus Liberal): Zali Steggall took a big chunk out of the big party contenders in recording 43.5% of the primary vote, but the largest of course came from Tony Abbott, down from 51.6% to 39.0%. Abbott won four booths around Forestville at the northern end of the electorate, but it was otherwise a clean sweep for Steggall. She particularly dominated on the coast around Manly, by margins ranging from 10% to 18%.

Watson (Labor 13.5%; 4.1% swing to Liberal): In a familiar suburban Sydney pattern, Tony Burke had an 8.8% swing in his favour from 2016 unwound by a 4.1% swing to the Liberals this time.

Wentworth (Liberal 1.3% versus Independent): Listed as a Liberal retain in a spirit of consistently comparing results from the 2016 election, this was of course a Liberal gain to the extent that it reversed their defeat at the hands of independent Kerryn Phelps at last October’s by-election. There was an unblemished divide between the northern end of the electorate, encompassing the coast north of Bondi and all but the westernmost part of the harbourside, where the Liberals won the two-candidate vote, and the southern end of the electorate, where Phelps did. As noted in the previous post, there was a swing to Labor of 7.9% on the two-party preferred count, but this was testament more than anything to Malcolm Turnbull’s local support.

Werriwa (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): A half-sophomore effect for Labor’s Anne Watson may have helped limit the swing here in this outer suburban seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,936 comments on “Call of the board: Sydney (part two)”

Comments Page 31 of 39
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  1. It’s Time.

    Yes. Given the delusions around Brexit some obvious things need restating.
    The EU wants commercial advantage in trading. Inside the EU open Borders makes it like the US and Australia. For exactly the same reasons there will be customs checks on the border. It’s called self interest. That’s ignoring Ireland’s special case.

    Edit: it’s also why the economists were predicting economic disaster for the UK with Brexit and why Remain people started talking about poor white trash

  2. lizzie @ #1495 Wednesday, July 24th, 2019 – 7:11 am

    A confidential plagiarism investigation found a report co-written by Liberal senator James Paterson breached research integrity standards.

    In 2015 Paterson helped write a paper critical of high pay rates, “generous” perks and union influence in the public service.

    Paterson, then deputy executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs, wrote the report with Aaron Lane, a lawyer and then PhD candidate at RMIT.

    In small parts the paper is almost word-for-word as an internal document prepared by the Australian public service commission and supplied to the IPA eight months earlier. The commission was then headed by John Lloyd, who resigned in 2018 after controversy about his connections with the rightwing thinktank.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/plagarism-complaint-liberal-senator-james-paterson-breached-integrity-standards-ipa-report

    The Kipfler-Jugend is mashed.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    We have a new Guardian-Essential poll out this morning. Katharine Murphy examines the findings.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/scott-morrison-and-anthony-albaneses-approval-ratings-climb-essential-poll
    Rob Harris reveals that a bipartisan call to increase the Newstart allowance was removed from a parliamentary report at the direction of the Morrison government on the eve of the federal election. It’s not going to go away that easy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/push-to-lift-newstart-erased-before-election-20190723-p52a19.html
    Ross Gittins looks closely at the Newstart issue.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/there-s-a-strange-logic-to-josh-frydenberg-s-stand-on-newstart-20190723-p529t8.html
    The Conversation’s Peter Whiteford answers the question, “Are most people on the Newstart unemployment benefit for a short or long time?”
    https://theconversation.com/are-most-people-on-the-newstart-unemployment-benefit-for-a-short-or-long-time-120826
    Michelle Grattan writes on how Morrison is trying to put the clamps on his MPs.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-cracks-the-whip-120846
    The global economy is in a “precarious” position and likely to slow, the International Monetary Fund has warned amid signs Australian shoppers are reluctant to open their wallets despite falling interest rates and tax cuts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sluggish-and-precarious-imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-20190723-p529v1.html
    Where is this all going to end? Residents of an Alexandria apartment block are at a “public risk” after a private certifier illegally allowed them to move into a building that the City of Sydney was so concerned about it sought demolition orders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/residents-at-risk-council-sought-demolition-orders-on-alexandria-block-20190723-p52a1t.html
    In an excellent contribution Professor Bill Randolph says that what’s needed is a wholesale revamp of the culture of the apartment development industry that puts the needs of the consumer first, not a distant last. The industry needs to embrace a culture of change or face a continued crisis of trust.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/those-left-to-pick-up-the-bill-shut-out-of-building-crisis-debate-20190723-p529up.html
    The Age editorial warms that Australia should be wary of following Trump on Iran.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/australia-should-be-wary-of-following-trump-on-iran-20190722-p529jf.html
    The SMH editorial says that the rioting at the youth gaol was a tragedy as well as a crime.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/rioting-at-a-youth-jail-is-a-tragedy-as-well-as-a-crime-20190723-p52a0l.html
    Labor mounted a sustained attack on Angus Taylor in QT yesterday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/23/angus-taylor-pursued-by-labor-over-rising-emissions-and-grassland-meetings
    Nick Miller examines the differences between Trump and Johnson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/is-boris-johnson-really-the-britain-trump-look-past-the-hair-20190724-p52a3u.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons says that it is human rights that need to be protected more than corporate interests.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/protect-human-rights-not-corporate-interests-20190723-p52a02.html
    Christopher Knaus reports that a confidential plagiarism investigation found a report co-written by Liberal senator James Paterson breached research integrity standards.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/plagarism-complaint-liberal-senator-james-paterson-breached-integrity-standards-ipa-report
    An additional $2 billion provision for remediation costs will eat into AMP profits and one analyst suggests the wealth manager will have no profit in the full year 2019 writes Elizabeth Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/amp-has-another-potential-landmine-to-negotiate-a-zero-profit-in-2019-20190723-p529x5.html
    And Adele Ferguson reports that the peak financial regulator APRA has been criticised over a controversial decision to hire a senior lawyer from the ranks of troubled wealth manager AMP, which has been battling a series of scandals over the past year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/revolving-door-apra-criticised-for-absolutely-inappropriate-amp-hire-20190723-p52a05.html
    The AFR reports that boards and investors are on a collision course over APRA’s pay plan foreshadowing they will reject the move to 50 per cent non-financial measures.
    https://outline.com/vRwf52
    Mungo MacCallum writes about the Coalition’s real-life ‘Mediscare’ on Medicare.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mungo-maccallum-the-coalitions-real-life-mediscare-on-medicare,12928
    John Crace says of yesterday’s Johnson election “In one way, though, this had been a remarkable Johnson speech. It had been the first one he’d given for years which hadn’t contained any outright lies. Just the odd half-truth. Mainly because he hadn’t actually really said anything. Still there would be plenty of time to rectify that. The lying could restart tomorrow.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/23/smug-needy-desperate-johnsons-coronation-is-a-shameless-tory-jobs-fair
    Rod Meyer says that there is no evidence that halting superannuation rises will boost wages.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/superannuation/2019/07/22/politicians-trying-to-stop-superannuation-guarantee/
    Authentic UPF Leader Blair Cottrell is no freedom of speech activist, he is an authoritarian who daydreams about bloody revolution and power, writes Tom Tanuki.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/cottrell-is-no-freedom-of-speech-advocate-but-a-violent-fascist,12927
    Sarah Martin writes that Labor has joined the Greens in calling on the Coalition to stand down two commissioners appointed to the disability royal commission over concerns about their alleged conflict of interest.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/bill-shorten-joins-call-for-coalition-to-stand-down-two-disability-royal-commissioners
    It seems the NBN will not be acquired by Telstra for now, but it remains a political football, which can be kicked in any direction by the Morrison Government, writes Paul Budde.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/nbn-sale-ruled-out–taxpayers-to-pay-instead,12926
    Members appointed to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal should have legal qualifications, a former High Court justice has found, in a report recommending major changes to the tribunal. I’m sure this was front of mind of the government when it appointed all its mates to the AAT before the election.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6289726/appeals-tribunal-needs-overhaul-review-finds/?cs=14350
    Bernie Fraser has said he was dismayed that bankers were again commanding top dollar so soon after the Hayne royal commission established links between poorly designed incentives and misconduct.
    https://outline.com/3JH7Dc
    The UK Guardian looks at what’s ahead for PM Boris Johnson.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/23/ambition-fulfilled-for-boris-johnson-but-what-next-for-britain
    As does Professor Simon Torney in The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-political-vegemite-becomes-the-uk-prime-minister-let-the-games-begin-119467
    Ah. Trump’s America!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/police-officer-fired-for-suggesting-us-congresswoman-should-be-shot-20190724-p52a3r.html
    John Setka’s cashed-up CFMEU branch will seek to take advantage of Labor’s debt position post-election by taking it through costly court challenges, sources say.
    https://outline.com/PfacBr
    You have to laugh. NSW police have uncovered more than $200 million worth of the drug known as ice after a man allegedly driving a van with the drugs inside crashed into a police car.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6288487/van-with-alleged-200m-worth-of-drugs-crashes-into-police-car/?cs=14329
    Not a good day for these former “Arseholes of the Week” nominations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/luxury-cars-and-property-of-alleged-ndis-fraudsters-frozen-by-court-20190722-p529iz.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Another beauty from Cathy Wilcox.

    A couple from David Rowe.


    Alan Moir and another effort on the MDB.

    John Shakespeare praises Matt Horton.

    From Matt Golding




    Zanetti really lashes out at Albanese.


    Jon Kudelka on MasterChef.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/77f86ae015a3331826532be571fd2d95?width=1024

    From the US








  4. I reckon, let the toffee-nosed Tories have their Hard Brexit. Let the people see and feel exactly what it means and let it show them, in real time, away from the confected confabulations of facebook memes, how hard, ‘Hard’ is. Let it lead to the breakup of the UK. Then let’s see how much money can be made by Nigel Farage and the Tussled, Tow-Headed Tory PM and their mates. Not a lot, I imagine. Except for the devious and deceptive ones who have already moved their businesses back over to Europe to avoid the inevitable economic crash head-first into a cold, ‘Hard’ reality that will come from the ‘Hard Brexit’. I hope it leads to the destruction of the Tory Party itself. They deserve no less for their devious, destructive ways.

  5. Terms of Reference for the Journalists and Whistleblowers Inquiry:

    And the terms of reference for that inquiry are below:

    That the following matters be referred to the environment and communications references committee for inquiry and report by the third sitting day of December 2019:

    a) disclosure and public reporting of sensitive and classified information, including the appropriate regime for warrants regarding journalists and media organisations and adequacy of existing legislation;

    b) the whistleblower protection regime and protections for public sector employees;

    c) the adequacy of referral practices of the Australian government in relation to leaks of sensitive and classified information;

    d) appropriate culture, practice and leadership for government and senior public employees;

    e) mechanisms to ensure that the Australian federal police have sufficient independence to effectively and impartially carry out their investigatory and law enforcement responsibilities in relation to politically sensitive matters; and

    f) any related matters.

  6. Cat

    As I said last night it’s quite possible the likely General Election will see the SNP become the majority. Nicola Sturgeon as Prime Minister would be very interesting.

    Why I say a General election is likely is the resignations from government positions Then there is the fact we know the DUP does not want a hard border.

    So you just might get your wish.

  9. This should make Canavan and his LNP mates feel nervous:

    Adani’s Carmichael coal mine surviving on lifeline from Indian parent company
    By Stephen Long

    Professor Sandra van der Laan casts her eyes over the complex corporate structure for Adani’s Australian operations.

    “It looks to me like a corporate collapse waiting to happen,” she says.

    “It has all the hallmarks of the big corporate failures we’ve seen over the last 20 to 30 years.”

    Professor van der Laan, a forensic accounting specialist who heads the discipline of finance at the University of Sydney, has a reputation for picking “corporate collapses waiting to happen”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-24/adani-carmichael-subsidiary-surviving-on-lifeline-from-parent/11338926

  10. citizen

    And furthermore… Few jobs, no tax income for Qld.

    Investors, analysts and ratings agencies have expressed concern about the Adani Group’s propensity to shift assets and liabilities between companies in a less-than-transparent manner or on questionable terms.

    “The concerns that they may be raising money in the port business to fund the Carmichael mine are very legitimate, we’ve seen this kind of thing before,” Professor van der Laan says.

    “In such a complex corporate structure, it’s very difficult to understand where the funds flows are coming from or going to.”

    Whether or not concerns about the solvency of various Adani companies or funding for the Carmichael mine are well-founded, the promise of a company tax bonanza from the Queensland mine seems destined to remain unfulfilled, according to Tim Buckley.

    Already, accumulated losses mean that, if the mine is built, Adani Mining won’t pay company tax for many years in Australia and may never do so — like the Abbot Point Coal Terminal, which has paid little to no company tax under the ownership of Adani.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-24/adani-carmichael-subsidiary-surviving-on-lifeline-from-parent/11338926

  19. Andrew Laird
    @ReclaimAnglesea
    ·
    28m
    Only a fool would trust the judgment of
    @PeterDutton_MP over that of @markdreyfusQCMP
    in relation to whether a Bill is constitutional and whether it adequately protects our rights #abcam #auspol

    Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ·
    31m
    On ABC radio AM, Dutton cites the massacre in Christchurch – a white Australian man who killed over 50 Muslims in New Zealand – to justify the new law that empowers him to exclude Australians, including children, from Australia.

  20. This is a fantastic article highlighting the absurdity and mendacity of Boris Johnson:

    It’s quite extraordinary, isn’t it, when the new leader of the country opens his inaugural speech with: “There may be people here who wonder quite what they have done!” – having to address the fact that many people in the room are coming to terms with the fact they’ve got shit on their shoe.

    “Do you look daunted?!” he boomed, “You don’t look remotely daunted to me!” Which was met with a Spectoresque wall of silence, a number of faces as white as Elizabeth I’s, and a solitary cry of: “No!”. Probably from Matt Hancock, who has the sucking-up power of a Dyson, but not one of those ones with balls.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/23/boris-johnson-clown-crowned-country-london-dude

  21. Urban Wronski @UrbanWronski
    ·
    8m
    Bill Shorten joins call for Coalition to stand down 2 disability royal commissioners from the sector who are part of the problem. Liberals oppose because they’ve got too much to hide; refusing disability pension to save money for their surplus fetish.

  23. Zoidlord

    Yes it is a very good overview of our property market and one main reason why Labor lost election, despite many thinking otherwise

  24. Drop Everything And Watch Larissa Waters’ Powerful Call To Raise Newstart:

    https://junkee.com/larissa-waters-raise-newstart/214825

    The debate over raising Newstart, Waters argued, “brings to mind the purpose of us being here”, saying that she was disappointed to hear colleagues describing the discussion as a waste of time.

    “Well, what’s the point of Parliament if we’re not here to advocate for the right thing to do, to help people, and to argue our case for good policy measures that help genuine human beings? That is, in fact, our job — to be in here and represent,” she said.

    “I feel very disappointed at the lack of hope. And sure, we’ve got a hideous government that doesn’t give a damn about anyone except its wealthy donors, but we’re seeing positive steps with people in the business community calling for an increase in Newstart.”

    “Of course, we have ACOSS and other fantastic community organisations that have long called for an increase in Newstart. But we now have people in the Nationals calling for an increase in Newstart. We now have people in the Labor ranks, calling for an increase in Newstart. So I just don’t accept that it is a waste of time for us to be continuing to raise this, and to put forward the actual experiences of people who are being forced to live so far below the poverty line it is beyond a lack of dignity — it is a crime, in my view.”

    “I think that’s a really important task for us. That’s how we convince people to change their minds and to do the right thing. And to step up and actually act like a government, and act in the interests of people.”

    “We have three million Australians that are living in poverty, below the poverty line, on Newstart. You want economic stimulus? Even if you don’t care about the human face of these people — and it’s pretty clear you haven’t so far — you want economic stimulus? Lift Newstart. These people are desperate to spend that money because they don’t actually have enough money to meet their basic needs.”

    “I’m sure they want a secondhand pair of shoes, to go to that interview. I’m sure they want the bus or the petrol money, to get to that interview. Or I’m sure they want to buy their child lunch, for school,” she said, tearing up. “This is real people that we’re talking about.”

    “I am very embarrassed by the agenda of this government,” she concluded. “I think it brings the entire institution into disrepute when we see massive tax cuts handed out to wealthy people, massive corporate tax cuts, favours done for big donors, and ordinary Australians and the environment on which we all rely utterly neglected, and derided, and degraded. The cheek of you. Have some dignity, have some compassion, and please reflect on what your role is in this place.”

  28. Melanie @CartwheelPrint
    ·
    19m
    I’ve just been informed that the ‘opt out amendment’ that passed the senate for the cashless debit card in April, is meaningless. People are calling about it but are receiving no phone calls back. #auspol #cdc

  29. ABC reporter Tom Iggulden

    Labor Capitulates..

    There you go Labor. Really winning. Being a strong opposition and being seen to be so.

  30. Given the ascension of Trump, Johnson and Morrison on behalf of environmental wreckers, racists, thugs, bullies, xenophobes and the idle rich, it is wonderful to see the Left focusing the full fury of their undoubted intellectual powers on attacking relentlessly the lies, the injustices and the environmental wreckage wrought by these spawns of the devil.

    In this context it entirely heartening to see the Greens on Poll Bludger once more going for Morrison’s throat, going for Corman’s throat, and in the topic du jour, going for Taylor’s throat.
    Good stuff guys!
    Keep it coming!
    Workers united… and all that, eh?

  31. Here we have Guytaur, hero of the hour, absolutely smashing the gormless Morrison for his systematic destruction of the environment.
    Go, Guytaur!

  32. BK

    If there is one thing the opioid crisis demonstrates, it is that legalizing all currently illegal drugs is absolutely fraught with risks.

    Using pill testing for pingers at raves as the stalking horse for the debate is no substitute for a root and branch national review of legal and illegal drug use with carefully considered recommendations from all stakeholders.

  33. BW

    How long have you been a Liberal? Cheering for a weak Labor party and being seen to be so?

    Tom Iggledun’s words are not mine.

  36. Boewar forgets that Guytaur et al are not her Majesty’s opposition, and therefore it is not their job to oppose and condemn the obvious and multiple failings of this government.

    Boewar forgets whose job that is.

  38. Boerwar

    The likes of guytaur Pegasus and other Greenie lib luvvies are making this blog a laughing stock as you rightly point out their continued focus on Labor who have no power in house or senate after the election of Morrison and co,

    Beyond frickin stupid

  39. Yes, it sounds great, doesn’t it. ABC news reporting that Labour supports a national security bill that it has reservations about because it is going to pass anyway without Labor’s support.

    Impeccable logic, and it makes life so much easier if you are an opposition that doesn’t oppose, because what’s the point anyway.

  40. ‘adrian says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2019 at 9:37 am

    Boewar forgets that Guytaur et al are not her Majesty’s opposition, and therefore it is not their job to oppose and condemn the obvious and multiple failings of this government.

    Boewar forgets whose job that is.’

    Not at all, Adrian. We are all in the same boat. We need to destroy the Coalition Government. It is accelerating Australia’s contribution to the Anthropocene Mass Extinction Event. Morrison is the Number One National Enemy. Simple as that. That is why all true Lefties spend their might and main getting stuck into the lying hypocrite.

    And while I am replying to you, can I just say that I fully respect your strenuous and repeated attempts to, for example, call out the serial behaviour of Minister Taylor in relation to his family, in relation to the environmental tragedy of the Murray Darling Basin, in relation to properties and business dealings, to the flows of water, in relation to offshore tax havens, and in relation to rather large sums of taxpayer funds.
    I note that you have repeatedly excoriated this real-world travesty of justice and democracy.
    Good on you!

  41. Adrian

    There was an election. The voters didn’t like what Labor were selling.
    The coalition have the spoils of victory. Winners are grinners and all that

  42. Ross Gittins on Newstart:

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/there-s-a-strange-logic-to-josh-frydenberg-s-stand-on-newstart-20190723-p529t8.html

    It’s so familiar a part of political economy you could call it Galbraith’s Law, after John Kenneth Galbraith, the literary Canadian-American economist who put it into words. As the late senator John Button paraphrased it: the rich need more money as an incentive and the poor need less money as an incentive.
    :::
    It’s true that, until very recently, Labor was just as opposed to raising the dole as the Coalition has long been. Why? Because both sides know that doing so would displease many of their supporters.
    :::
    As everyone knows, the dole is paid to lazy youngsters, who much prefer surfing to looking for a job – which, if only they’d get off their arses, they’d soon find. (Never mind that the number of unemployed vastly exceeds the number of job vacancies.)

    Even so, the number of those calling for an increase is mounting rapidly.

  43. Victoria

    I thought you liked Daniel Andrews winning ways.

    All I am saying is Labor be like Daniel Andrews. Nothing remotely cheering on the Greens about that. Or are you claiming Daniel Andrews is the new leader of the Greens party?

    Bob Brown will be pleased.

  44. Greenie lib luvvies

    You don’t get it, do you Victoria. Many of these criticisms are coming from Labor party members, including mine.
    Labelling ALP members and supporters with such a juvenile insult serves nobody’s interests except the LNP and the prevailing orthodoxy.

  45. Guytaur
    One of the things I find most admirable in your major posting effort is that you always find some suitable quote attacking Morrison who is the one who is leading the wrecking of the environment, who despises the LGBTIQ community as a matter of core belief, and who is busy corrupting the economy so that the rich can get richer and the poor can get poorer.
    I can see why you constantly trawl the reports of others, newspaper articles, posts and tweets which lay into Morrison.
    And as soon as you find one that gets stuck into Morrison you post it!
    Great job, especially given your excellent previous advocacy for the LGBTIQ community.
    We are as one on this!

  47. Thanks again to BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    From

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-nationals-carry-the-water-can-for-share-plan-fail/news-story/d8abfa8dd2b89e4176a7c8f3e7a0e375

    Successive NSW Nationals water ministers endorsed a “sharing plan” for the Darling River that gave irrigators upstream too much water, bringing on a drought three years before it would ordinarily have happened in the far west of the state.

    The plan also led to irrigators taking water in a process that endangered the “physical and mental health” of far-western NSW residents, a report for the NSW government has found.

    The Australian understands the draft review of the Barwon-Darling Water Sharing Plan 2012 by Natural Resources Commissioner John Keniry could be released by the NSW government as early as today. It is scathing of the effect of the 2012 plan, brought in by former Nationals minister Katrina Hodgkinson.

    and

    “Town drinking water is meant to have priority over irrigation uses, but the plan does not ­adequately provide for this.”

    The report also found “the overall standard of NSW compliance and enforcement work (when it comes to how much water irrigators have been taking) has been poor”.

    For those who maintain a scrapbook of handsome ladies – the article contains a very nice picture of Ms. Katrina Hodgkinson.

    Today’s guessing competition.

    What is the projected date of the restoration of water flows in the Murray/Darling river systems ❓

  49. adrian says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2019 at 9:37 am

    Boewar forgets that Guytaur et al are not her Majesty’s opposition, and therefore it is not their job to oppose and condemn the obvious and multiple failings of this government.

    Boewar forgets whose job that is.

    The Opposition’s main task is to position itself to win the next election.

    Yes, that can and often includes opposing Government proposals, but that is not its role.

    That you and others think this just highlights your limitations in understanding the English language and how much you were effected by Abbott.

  50. What I admire is the way the Greens choose Berejiklian for their serial attacks on the premiers level of government! After Berejilian was up and about while massive amounts of MDB water was being stolen
    Well done, Guytaur! Well done, Adrian! Well done, Rex!
    You know who the real enemy of the environment is!
    Excellent stuff!

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