On reflection, my previous post, intended as the first in a series of “Call of the Board” posts reviewing in detail the result of the May 18 election, was deficient in two aspects. The first is that patterns in the results estimated by my demographic model were said to be “difficult to discern”, which can only have been because I didn’t look hard enough. In fact, the results provide evidence for remarkably strong incumbency effects. Of the 12 Liberals defending their seats in the Sydney area, all but Tony Abbott outperformed the modelled estimate of the Liberal two-party vote, by an average of 4.0%. Of the 15 Labor members, all but two (Julie Owens in Parramatta and Anne Stanley in Werriwa) outperformed the model, the average being 3.4%.
The other shortcoming of the post was that it did not, indeed, call the board – a now-abandoned ritual of election night broadcasting in which the results for each electorate were quickly reviewed in alphabetical order at the end of the night, so that nobody at home would feel left out. You can find this done for the Sydney seats over the fold, and it will be a feature of the Call of the Board series going forward.
Banks (Liberal 6.3%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): After winning the seat for the Liberals in 2013 for the first time since its creation in 1949, David Coleman has now scored three wins on the trot, the latest by comfortably his biggest margin to date: 6.3%, compared with 2.8% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2016. In a post-election account for the Age/Herald, Michael Koziol reported that Labor’s national secretariat and state branch were at loggerheads over the seat late in the campaign, with the former wishing to devote resources to the seat, and the latter recognising that they “didn’t stand a chance”.
Barton (Labor 9.4%; 1.1% swing to Labor): Located around the crossover point where the inner urban swing to Labor gave way to the outer urban swing to Liberal, Barton recorded a slight swing to Labor that was perhaps boosted by a sophomore effect for incumbent Linda Burney.
Bennelong (Liberal 6.9%; 2.8% swing to Labor): A fair bit has been written lately about Labor’s struggles with the Chinese community, particularly in New South Wales, but that did not stop the nation’s most Chinese electorate recording a reasonably solid swing to Labor. This perhaps reflected the quality of Labor’s candidate, neurosurgeon Brian Owler, but was also typical of a seat where Malcolm Turnbull had played well in 2016, when it swung 2.8% to the Liberals.
Berowra (Liberal 15.6%; 0.8% swing to Labor): Most of this outer northern Sydney seat is in the outer part of the zone that swung to Labor, barring a few lightly populated regions out north and west. However, Liberal member Julian Leeser is what I will call a half-sophomore – a first-term incumbent, but one who succeeded a member of the same party (in this case Philip Ruddock), so there was no reversal of the sitting member advantage. So the 0.8% swing to Labor is about par for the course.
Blaxland (Labor 14.7%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): The anti-Labor swing suffered by Jason Clare was fairly typical for Sydney’s south-west.
Bradfield (Liberal 16.6%; 4.5% swing to Labor): Apart from the exceptional cases of Warringah and Wentworth, this was the biggest swing against the Liberals in New South Wales. However, given it was only fractionally lower in neighbouring North Sydney, that’s unlikely to be a reflection on sitting member Paul Fletcher, instead reflecting the electorate’s affluence and proximity to the city. The seat also recorded the state’s biggest swing to the Greens, at 2.0%.
Chifley (Labor 12.4%; 6.8% swing to Liberal): Ed Husic suffered Labor’s biggest unfavourable swing in Sydney (and the second biggest in the state after Hunter), after enjoying the second biggest favourable swing in 2016 (after Macarthur).
Cook (Liberal 19.0%; 3.6% swing to Liberal): As noted in the previous post, Scott Morrison enjoys the biggest Liberal margin in New South Wales relative to what might be expected from the electorate’s demographic composition. Only part of this can be explained by a prime ministership effect, as his 3.6% swing ranked only twelfth out of the 47 seats in New South Wales.
Dobell (Labor 1.5%; 3.3% swing to Liberal): The two seats on the Central Coast behaved similarly to most of suburban Sydney in swinging solidly to the Liberals, but there was enough padding on the Labor margin to save Emma McBride in Dobell, a marginal seat that lands Labor’s way more often than not.
Fowler (Labor 14.0%; 3.5% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Chris Hayes suffered a swing unremarkable by the standards of western Sydney, or perhaps slightly at the low end of average.
Grayndler (Labor 16.3% versus Greens; 0.5% swing to Labor): As illustrated in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s personal popularity continues to define results in Grayndler, where the Labor margin is well out of proportion to demographic indicators. Whereas the Greens hold the largely corresponding state seats of Balmain and Newtown, in Grayndler they struggle to harness enough of the left-of-centre vote to finish ahead of the Liberals. They just managed it on this occasion, as they had previously in 2010 and 2016, outpolling the Liberals 22.6% to 21.8% on the primary vote, narrowing to 24.2% to 23.8% after the exclusion of three other candidates. Albanese cleared 50% of the primary vote for the first time since 2007, helped by a smaller field of candidates than last time, and had a locally typical 1.5% two-party swing against the Liberals.
Greenway (Labor 2.8%; 3.5% swing to Liberal): The swing against Labor’s Michelle Rowland was typical for middle suburbia, and roughly reversed the swing in her favour in 2016.
Hughes (Liberal 9.8%; 0.5% swing to Liberal): Craig Kelly did rather poorly to gain a swing of only 0.5% – as a careful look at the results map shows, the boundary between Hughes and Cook marks a distinct point where Labor swings turn to Liberal ones. The demographic model suggests Kelly to be the third most poorly performing Liberal incumbent out of the 13 in the Sydney area, ahead of Tony Abbott (Warringah) and Lucy Wicks (Robertson).
Kingsford Smith (Labor 8.8%; 0.2% swing to Labor): It was noted here previously that Matt Thistlethwaite strongly outperforms the demographic model, but the near status quo result on this occsion did little to contribute to that. This seat was roughly on the geographic crossover point between the Labor swings of the city and the Liberal swings of the suburbs.
Lindsay (LIBERAL GAIN 5.0%; 6.2% swing to Liberal): One of five seats lost by Labor at the election, and the only one in Sydney. Like the others, Lindsay was gained by Labor in 2016, with Emma Husar scoring a 1.1% margin from a 4.1% swing. This was more than reversed in Husar’s absence, with Liberal candidate Melissa McIntosh prevailing by 5.0%. The 6.2% swing against Labor was the biggest in the Sydney area, and produced a Liberal margin comparable to Jackie Kelly’s strongest.
Macarthur (Labor 8.4%; 0.1% swing to Labor): To repeat what was said in the previous post: Labor strongly outpolled the demographic model in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. The swing to Labor, tiny though it was, ran heavily against the trend of urban fringe seats across the country. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign compared with last time, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid. Macarthur was one of six seats in New South Wales contested by One Nation, whose 8.6% seemed to be drawn equally from Labor and Liberal.
Mackellar (Liberal 13.2%; 2.5% swing to Labor): Jason Falinski’s northern beaches seat participated in the swing to Labor in inner and northern Sydney, though in this case it was a fairly modest 2.5%, perhaps reflecting Falinski’s half-sophomore effect. A 12.2% vote for independent Alice Thompson caught most of the combined 14.9% for three independents in 2016, leaving the large parties’ vote shares little changed.
Macquarie (Labor 0.2%; 2.0% swing to Liberal): A sophomore surge for Labor member Susan Templeman surely made the difference here, with the 2.0% swing to the Liberals being below the outer urban norm, and just short of what was required to take the seat.
McMahon (Labor 6.6%; 5.5% swing to Liberal): The swing against Chris Bowen was well at the higher end of the scale and, typically for such a result, followed a strong swing the other way in 2016, in this case of 7.5%. This was among the six seats in New South Wales contested by One Nation, whose 8.3% contributed to a 7.4% primary vote swing against Bowen, and perhaps also to the size of the two-party swing.
Mitchell (Liberal 18.6%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Where most safe Liberal seats in Sydney were in the zone of inner and northern Sydney that swung to Labor, Mitchell is far enough west to encompass the crossover point where Labor swings gave way to Liberal ones. This translated into a modest 0.8% swing to Liberal member Alex Hawke, and very little change on the primary vote.
North Sydney (Liberal 9.3%; 4.3% swing to Labor): Trent Zimmerman’s seat caught the brunt of the inner urban swing to Labor, the 4.3% swing to Labor being the state’s fourth highest after Warringah, Wentworth and Bradfield, the latter of which just shaded it. Labor managed a hefty 8.3% gain on the primary vote, largely thanks to the absence of Stephen Ruff, who polled 12.8% as an independent in 2016. The one independent on this occasion was serial candidate Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, a former Democrats member of the state upper house, who managed only 4.4%.
Parramatta (Labor 3.5%; 4.2% swing to Liberal): Parramatta marks the crossover point where the Liberal swing in western Sydney begins, producing a 4.2% swing against Labor’s Julie Owens that only partly unwound the 6.4% swing she picked up in 2016.
Reid (Liberal 3.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The Liberals maintained their remarkable record in this seat going back to 2013, when they won it for the first time in the seat’s history, by limiting the swing to Labor to a manageable 1.5%. While the 3.2% margin is only modestly higher than that predicted by the demographic model, it was achieved despite the departure of two-term sitting member Craig Laundy, who is succeeded by Fiona Martin.
Robertson (Liberal 4.2%; 3.1% swing to Liberal): Similarly to neighbouring Dobell, the Central Coast seat of Robertson swung 3.1% to the Liberals, in this case boosting the margin of Lucy Wicks.
Sydney (Labor 18.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): The inner urban swing to Labor added further padding to Tanya Plibersek’s margin. The Greens continue to run third behind the Liberals, who outpolled them by 26.6% to 18.1%. As is the case in Grayndler, this presumably reflects local left-wing voters’ satisfaction with the incumbent.
Warringah (INDEPENDENT GAIN 7.2% versus Liberal): Zali Steggall took a big chunk out of the big party contenders in recording 43.5% of the primary vote, but the largest of course came from Tony Abbott, down from 51.6% to 39.0%. Abbott won four booths around Forestville at the northern end of the electorate, but it was otherwise a clean sweep for Steggall. She particularly dominated on the coast around Manly, by margins ranging from 10% to 18%.
Watson (Labor 13.5%; 4.1% swing to Liberal): In a familiar suburban Sydney pattern, Tony Burke had an 8.8% swing in his favour from 2016 unwound by a 4.1% swing to the Liberals this time.
Wentworth (Liberal 1.3% versus Independent): Listed as a Liberal retain in a spirit of consistently comparing results from the 2016 election, this was of course a Liberal gain to the extent that it reversed their defeat at the hands of independent Kerryn Phelps at last October’s by-election. There was an unblemished divide between the northern end of the electorate, encompassing the coast north of Bondi and all but the westernmost part of the harbourside, where the Liberals won the two-candidate vote, and the southern end of the electorate, where Phelps did. As noted in the previous post, there was a swing to Labor of 7.9% on the two-party preferred count, but this was testament more than anything to Malcolm Turnbull’s local support.
Werriwa (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): A half-sophomore effect for Labor’s Anne Watson may have helped limit the swing here in this outer suburban seat.
OC
It’s definitely interesting times. They might be opening the champagne glasses at the IRA. Breakup of the UK now possible.
An election with the SNP getting the majority is possible
Bucephalus @ #1433 Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019 – 8:56 pm
Stating fact.
Fox-type news has dumbed down voters. A study in Italy showed those results.
Now voters spend more time deciding on a pizza than a government.
I can’t see the resemblance myself….
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 9:50 pm
The UK and Ireland do not have to have a hard border if they decide as sovereign nations not to – which is the current intent of both nations.
Tom the first and best says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 9:52 pm
The Queen would not oppose a PM who has the confidence of the Parliament.
A brave prediction:
Controlled Brexit – United Ireland in 25 years
No deal Brexit – United Ireland in 5 years
(This of course relies on a presumption that the Southern Irish want a union – which despite all the rhetoric can be seriously argued)
Bucephalus it is actually the border between the UK and the EU- a bilateral agreement won’t cut it
(I mean, this is what the backstop and the other suggested compromises is all about)
Bucephalus,
Isn’t there some hay somewhere you can go and chew on?
guytaur says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 9:54 pm
Break up of the UK is highly unlikely and the SNP winning a majority is of no consequence.
Buce
I wish Mr Johnson the best in convincing the DUP of that.
The situation in NI will be interesting if there is a no deal Brexit. There are already signs that the Good Friday agreement is understrain. There has been no government and no Stormont since Sinn Fein came within 1 seat of winning the last election 2 years ago. The level of violence is still low but a hard border could make a difference
Buce, it is not a mystery why so many people don’t like Boris..
In his 2002 column in the Spectator, Boris penned an article titled: “Africa is a mess, but we can’t blame colonialism”.
In the piece, Boris described the continent as a “blot” and suggested that it would be better off if it was colonised again, writing: “The problem is not that we were once in charge, but that we are not in charge any more…the best fate for Africa would be if the old colonial powers, or their citizens, scrambled once again in her direction; on the understanding that this time they will not be asked to feel guilty.
In 2002, in a column in the Telegraph, BoJo described black people as “piccaninnies” with “watermelon smiles”.
In 2004, Boris was asked to apologise to Liverpudleans after writing in the Spectator that they were “wallowing” in “victim status” after the Hillsborough disaster. Boris said those who lived in the city needed to acknowledge the role played “by drunken fans at the back of the crowd who mindlessly tried to fight their way into the ground”.
In the 2005 leadership contest, bumbling BoJo said “voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3”.
Boris described Papua New Guineans as prone to “cannibalism” and “chief-killing” in his column in the Telegraph in 2006.
Boris blamed rising house prices on women graduates in his Spectator column in 2007. It’s almost as if people should stop giving him columns.
In the same article, he managed to wrap classism into sexism, writing: “The result is that in families on lower incomes the women have absolutely no choice but to work, often with adverse consequences for family life and society as a whole – in that unloved and undisciplined children are more likely to become hoodies, NEETS, and mug you on the street corner.”
Also in 2007, BoJo described Hillary Clinton as looking like a “sadistic nurse in a mental hospital”.
In 2008, Boris allowed a piece to be printed that claimed black people have lower IQs, under his editorship at the Spectator. “Orientals…have larger brains and higher IQ scores,” the piece read. “Blacks are at the other pole.”
London assembly member Jennette Arnold accused BoJo of all-round sexist conduct in 2012, arguing that he generally treats women assembly members in a “disrespectful, patronising” way that was different to the men.
In 2013, Boris suggested that the increase in Malaysian women going to university was down to the fact that they have “got to find men to marry”. Groans were reportedly heard from Malaysian women in the audience.
Boris dabbled as a wordsmith in 2016 when he wrote a poem about the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: “There was a young fellow from Ankara / Who was a terrific wankerer / Till he sowed his wild oats / With the help of a goat / But he didn’t even stop to thankera.” Boris won a £1,000 poetry prize for the limerick.
In a Tory party conference speech in 2016, Boris claimed that “the values of global Britain are needed more than ever” and that British “beliefs” are necessary to “lift the world out of poverty”.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 10:05 pm
There are different border enforcement protocols at different borders throughout the EU as shown by the refugee crisis. If Ireland and the UK decide to run a soft border then the EU will do bugger all about it.
Puffytmd says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 10:05 pm
Is this a closed club?
Alternative views are unacceptable?
1984 and Animal Farm aren’t To Do Lists – they are warnings.
The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland get to decide how hard or how soft their border will be. There is nothing natural or inevitable about a hard border following a no deal Brexit. If they think that a hard border would be bad then they will craft the rules to make the border soft. It doesn’t matter whether there is a Brexit deal or not.
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 10:11 pm
The people who take offence with all of that were never going to vote for him anyway. Many of the things that the SJWs take offence to are factually correct.
He has won an overwhelming victory from both the members of parliament and the members of the voting public.
Well, the Piping Shrike on Twitter, for what it’s worth:
Gee I learn something new every day on PB
All this debate about a deal was crud because the Republic and the non-existent government of Northern Ireland (Nicholas) or UK (Buc) can make their own trade rules without reference to the EU
Perhaps you could both benefit by googling “backstop”
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 10:10 pm
The Good Friday Agreement has been under strain from Day 1.
Prorogation would loose Boris the confidence of the Parliament, that is clear. It would create a constitutional crisis. If he survives the confidence vote before the summer recess by only the Speakers casting vote (by convention the Speaker casts the Speaker`s casting vote against motions of no confidence) and the LibDems win the by-election (they have a good chance), the majority for Boris is gone.
Letting Boris have a prorogation would be a very partisan act by the Queen. It would not go down well.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-live-brexit-tory-leadership-result-speech-jeremy-hunt-a9016526.html
Oh dear. EU has fired the first shot.
You would benefit from remembering that the UK has devolved significant powers to Northern Ireland, and therefore NI does have an administrative capacity to be an interlocutor with the Republic of Ireland and figure out what kind of border arrangements they want to have.
Yes, the fixation with obtaining a Brexit deal with the EU was a colossal waste of time.
Creating a soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not depend on such a deal being reached.
If they set up border processes that are soft and the EU doesn’t like it, there isn’t much the EU can do about it.
Boris doesn’t have to prorogue Parliament. Article 50 has been triggered and Brexit is planned for 31 October. Nothing else needs to happen.
You really don’t know anything about Northern Ireland do you Nicholas?
Even if the crap you just wrote was true, there has not been a devolved government for 2 years and there is very little prospect of one forming any time soon.
Westminster currently administers NI and this is in some ways good as SSM and liberal Abortion laws which the DUP have opposed have finally been legislated
Brexit and the Trump imbroglio are two sides of same coin. Elites doing populism crapola to hoodwink the very people who are going to be shafted. Convincing them that democracy ain’t all that its cracked up to be.
I keep hoping for them to be exposed for the fraudsters and corrupt a@se holes that they are.
I live in hope.
The Parliament can, and in it seems likely (given the anti-no deal majority) would, revoke Article 50 before the 31st of October, if it is not blocked by a long prorogation.
Buce
Long live the United Kingston!!!!
New designation courtesy of Ivanka Trump.
Edit: more seriously OC is right about Google Backstop. The Republic of Ireland had a lot to do with it.
How unsurprisement.
Claude Taylor
@TrueFactsStated
·
2m
Mar-a-Lago member accused of being Chinese spy | Miami Herald. (I get a photo credit)
He’s a Chinese billionaire and a member of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago. Is he also a communist spy?
Mar-a-Lago member and outspoken Chinese fugitive Wengui Guo was accused of being a double agent and spying for the Chinese government, according to documents filed in federal court.
miamiherald.com
Brexit under Boris Johnson: The Scenarios
One topic will dominate the premiership of the new Tory leader: Brexit. But what are Johnson’s options? We look at the four most likely outcomes
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/jul/23/brexit-under-boris-johnson-the-scenarios
BoJo described Hillary Clinton as looking like a “sadistic nurse in a mental hospital”.
________________
I’ll pay that one.
Victoria
We live in hope.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-news-live-mueller-testimony-congress-russia-speech-turning-point-summit-a9016551.html
Re Sprocket @10:00PM.
Donald and Boris must have the same hairdresser.
Before I call it a night
Joe Scarborough
@JoeNBC
·
3h
“This contempt turned out to be a political trap because, “I was inclined not to take them very seriously — a common attitude among their inexperienced opponents, which helped them a lot.”
Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and lessons from the 1930s
When is it right to sound the alarm about political turmoil?
Here is link
https://www.ft.com/content/44f96050-ac56-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, July 23, 2019 at 10:47 pm
Brexit under Boris Johnson: The Scenarios
Very poor work for The Guardian – wouldn’t pass a high school politics rubric marking guide.
Completely ignores the fact in all scenarios that the Brexit Party won the majority of seats in the EU election in just six weeks of campaigning – an amazing result. Current polling shows they would be the largest party in the UK in any election held before a Brexit occurs. Combined with the Conservatives would form government and basically only Brexit Conservatives will be selected by their party and elected.
29 is not a majority of 73
Bucephalus
Would you care to nominate which of the offensive items in Sprockets list are factually correct?
Adrian Beaumont post on the Tory leadership business:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/07/23/uk-conservative-leadership-johnson-66-4-hunt-33-6/
From a link in Adrian Beaumont, the coming together of 2 themes. A little publicised vote last week makes it more difficult for the Commons to be prorogued.
An amendment to the Northern Ireland (executive formation) bill means that progress on the restoration of the devolved government must be debated regularly between now and October.
https://brexitcentral.com/government-defeated-by-a-majority-of-41-in-the-commons-on-move-to-prevent-prorogation/
Li Peng, of Tianaman Square infamy, has kicked the bucket, shuffled off the mortal coil, rolled up the curtain and joined the Chior Invisible:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/chinese-premier-who-pushed-for-tiananmen-square-crackdown-dies-20190723-p52a3e.html
Steve777 @ #1490 Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019 – 10:11 pm
Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.
Paul Fletcher has done a lot of harm and now has duck-shoved the problem on to Anne Ruston, who seems a weak link.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/push-to-lift-newstart-erased-before-election-20190723-p52a19.html
Essential has a poll of sorts – leadership ratings only, and this comment…
“There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48.
The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis.
Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3%.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/scott-morrison-and-anthony-albaneses-approval-ratings-climb-essential-poll?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1563906407
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/bill-shorten-joins-call-for-coalition-to-stand-down-two-disability-royal-commissioners
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/plagarism-complaint-liberal-senator-james-paterson-breached-integrity-standards-ipa-report
I am simply pointing out that there is a difference between an intrinsic / real constraint and a self-imposed / voluntary constraint.
The idea that the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland must have a hard border in the absence of an all-encompassing Brexit deal between the UK and the EU is an example of the latter.
Nicholas @ #1496 Wednesday, July 24th, 2019 – 7:13 am
Well if the hard border isn’t there then it will be between UK+Ireland and EU. Won’t that work out well?!
Good Morning
Labor better highlight how Dutton promoted this for expected loss
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/up-to-six-boats-attempting-to-come-to-australia-report/news-story/f553b06c71f2021941ad48ca7b75fddd
Morning all. Not content with wrecking Federal Labor, Qld Labor is also selling out its own state income. This could be fixed in a day.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/24/queensland-mining-royalties-found-to-give-effective-subsidies-to-thermal-coal-exporters
Guytaur
Now ScoMo can boast about starting the boats and stopping the jobs.