In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.
In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.
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In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).
The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.
Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.
The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.
The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.
In the post truth and post shame era, what might constitute effective politics by the Centre Left?
zoomster says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 10:06 am
… or buildings made from wood … 😆
“In the post truth and post shame era, what might constitute effective politics by the Centre Left?”
See my statement above. Effective politics by the centre-left is concentrating on good governance in state government and also lobbying and influence through NGOs, while accepting the reality of the federal picture.
Maude Lynne
Back in the mists of time that was what my history teacher taught me was one of the defining features of fascism. Government acting as an arm of big business. As he got his degree in Oxford just after WWII I have stuck with his definition. Reckon is it a bit closer to the ‘original rather than what it has become.
It’s official. The Great Barrier Reef is dying:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/19/great-barrier-reef-authority-urges-fastest-possible-action-on-emissions
CC
I doubt your solutions can work.
One can safely assume that post truth and post shame will apply at state governments.
Lobbying by NGOs only works if the NGOs can deliver a trade off.
For example, environmental groups used to be able to trade off real world gains during elections.
Apart from that, 27 years of lobbying by the various Greens astroturf ventures has delivered zip.
I suggest that, if there is an answer to the question, it will have something to do with what is being communicated and how it is being communicated. It is clear that if people are not moved politically by shaming then shaming them at best does nothing and at worst reinforces them in their shame-free space: as per ‘Send her back!’
The Victorian Statewide Cladding Audit website has some fact sheets on combustible cladding:
“The project’s focus is on reducing the fire safety risk of buildings found to have combustible cladding – such as expanded polystyrene or aluminium composite panels with a polyethylene core.”
https://www.vba.vic.gov.au/cladding
Boerwar
I know I shouldn’t laugh but you story did make me giggle. Sorry.
The (female) assistant told me that after struggling for a while in order to be close to the machine, one lady took off her blouse and her bra and pulled her breasts away from the centre. Success!
On the cladding: isn’t it a rule that the dangerous types should not be used above a certain height? For reach by fire engines, I think.
I had no problem with the eye testing machine at all. 🙁
lizzie @ #860 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 10:28 am
10 stories = maximum height of fire engine ladders I think.
Boerwar
Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 10:04 am
Comment #845
💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥;
💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥
I can’t wait for the movie. Who is playing your part ❓ I am seeing a battle for the part of the blushing young nurse. 🎊⚽🧶🏐
lizzie says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 10:26 am
That wouldn’t have worked in Vietnam, most stores selling prescription glasses have these machines, but they are located in full view in the shop.
Luckily, in general, the women there are smaller and aren’t so well endowed. 😆
lizzie says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 10:28 am
IIRC, I’m pretty sure it’s ok on buildings up to 3 stories.
lizzie
Where there is a will, there is a way.
Boerwar
Speaking of wills, isn’t it sad that there will be a battle over Bob Hawke’s estate.
Thanks Barney.
My own searching (which I should have done myself in the first place) reveals yes, it’s the aluminium sheets with a polythene filler sandwiched between them. It’s the filler that’s flammable: up to 8 times more so than some woods.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-03-12/aluminium-composite-cladding-polyethene-flammable-grenfell/10882316&ved=2ahUKEwic6MfV1b_jAhVBVH0KHVNmC_QQFjANegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2Jkaxqy4PlvP4ZMnpi1Tkp&cshid=1563495451223
The way the panels are mounted – typically with an air gap between them and the face of the building – also creates a natural “chimney” effect, with the air gap acting as a conduit for heat and poisonous smoke. As well, dripping, burning polythene ignites panels even *below* where it is mounted. The aluminium conducts heat almost perfectly (and may burn itself if it gets hot enough).
So, pretty much a perfect combustion material… mounted on hundreds if not thousands of buildings, worth billions to buy and possibly more billions to remediate.
No-one wants to take responsibility for anything except blaming others for the problem.
Knowing how many construction companies are mates of, and donors to the Liberals, it’s no wonder everyone’s passing the buck.
The feds let the stuff into the country, and encouraged negative gearing which contributed to house prices skyrocketing, making apartments a more attractive proposition.
The states relaxed the certification rules, as well as declaring many of the projects “State Significant”, overruling local councils.
The hapless owners don’t want to cut their own throats by dobbing themselves in as possessing the title deeds to a dodgy building. Either the banks or potential buyers may run a mile if word gets out.
The rest just needed greasy palms. Many of them, especially developers, have closed up shop (sadly legally) and moved on to the next scam.
Every observer who said to themselves, “Geez, they went up fast!” was right. Too fast, apparently. Turns out it wasn’t “win-win” after all. When a society as a whole goes ballistic cashing in on a faddish new fashion – from pokemons to apartments – start running… away from the fire, not towards it.
And pretty soon the entire apartment section of construction – badly built or honestly built, past, present or future – will be under the same dark cloud of fear, uncertainty and doubt.
I’m sure glad HI and I cashed up and moved away from that mess.
Oh, and we DID get a proper building inspection of the place we moved to, done by a couple of the nastiest, most negative doomsayers we could find, who had instructions to nitpick mercilessly.
On the other hand, anyone buying a brand new apartment off-the-plan was forced to rely on process alone, in some cases years before construction even began. But it was just this – the (laughingly called) “process” – which had been so diluted, compromised and bastardized as to now render the entire industry it served suspect.
My understanding of issue with the cladding is, by putting inappropriate cladding on the outside of a tall structure you help to make redundant the steps taken in constructing the building to contain fires.
The cladding provides an easier pathway to other floors, if it combusts, thus making a fire more dangerous.
Many people with more knowledge than I have are saying the same thing. 🙁
‘lizzie says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 10:48 am
Boerwar
Speaking of wills, isn’t it sad that there will be a battle over Bob Hawke’s estate.’
Yep.
“The political gaffe is dead, as bigots and liars triumph by spouting guff”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/18/political-gaffe-neil-kinnock-ed-miliband?CMP=share_btn_tw
BiM
Australian Candle.
lizzie @ #870 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 10:55 am
Sadly I can only think that Trump looked on in awe of Adolf Hitler as he was growing up. 🙁
Then strategised about how he would never make the same mistakes, and, as far as I know, no drugs and very little alcohol has ever touched his lips.
Does anyone else here see irony in Shorten, from the right, having a progressive agenda and Albo, allegedly from the left deciding to be mini-me to scomo?
He’s a fucking disgrace so far.
He should ask Beasley how well being a spineless windbag against a wiley and populist leader works.
Does this now mean the Vic right is to the left of the NSW left? It would not surprise me given the rise of the knuckle-draggers in NSW.
Boerwar says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 11:01 am
Not just Australia, it’s a major issue in the U.K. as well, as the fire in London a few years back demonstrated.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the problem was wider than that.
I’m still waiting for Albanese’s cunning plan to come to fruition. 😐
Big bucks and multiple families are fertile grounds for will disputes
lizzie @ #875 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 11:05 am
Because it’s been gutted and cowed into submission by the allegedly corrupt Angus Taylor and Barnaby Joyce.
Boerwar,
Just thinking of my ramblings and how many high rise buildings have and are being built in developing Countries.
I wouldn’t be too confident that the appropriate standards are being applied. 🙁
BiM
What goes up must come down.
In the first 18mths to 2 years of President Trump, many US commentators insisted the country’s institutions and their foundations were strong enough to withstand a Trump presidency. I no longer believe that is true.
His stacking the federal courts, his debasement of the office, ignoring the will of Congress, abusing his executive powers are going to be very hard to dial back.
Thank you, lizzie, for that Guardian article by Seamas O’Reilly.
This is seminal:
If appealing to the decency of indecent people is the only weapon in our arsenal, then we must learn a few new tricks
Boerwar says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 11:13 am
Not if it’s travelling faster than the escape velocity of the body it’s on! 😆
Confessions @ #882 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 11:14 am
So Obama should run again and just say, bugger the rules, everyone else is ignoring them!
BiM
What goes up must keep going up or come down.
Confessions says: Friday, July 19, 2019 at 11:14 am
We are now truly at a seminal moment in US history.
In the first 18mths to 2 years of President Trump, many US commentators insisted the country’s institutions and their foundations were strong enough to withstand a Trump presidency. I no longer believe that is true.
His stacking the federal courts, his debasement of the office, ignoring the will of Congress, abusing his executive powers are going to be very hard to dial back.
***************************************************************************
On Thursday, newly unsealed documents showed that FBI agents believed President Donald Trump was personally involved in the illegal scheme to pay off porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about an affair she had with him ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Furthermore, the Office of Legal Counsel memo prohibiting the indictment of a sitting president reportedly “factored into” the end of the probe.
National security attorney Bradley Moss made clear on Twitter that he believes that memo was the only thing that prevented this investigation from ending with an indictment of the president himself.
Bradley P. Moss @BradMossEsq
In my humble opinion, if Donald Trump was a private citizen he absolutely would have faced indictment tied to the campaign finance scheme, and might already be in prison.
He is protected by the OLC memo. That is all that separates him from an indictment at this point
Boerwar says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 11:18 am
😆
Now you’re getting onto the idea of building an elevator into orbit.
C@t
I thought the article by Seamas O’Reilly was elegantly written as well. 🙂
C@t:
Trump’s conduct has laid the groundwork for those who will come after him. It’s hard to see the genie being stuffed back inside the bottle.
phoenixRed:
Yes, and like I said, no wonder he wants to serve beyond the 2 term maximum. Or maybe write a new rule that precludes any former president from indictment.
lizzie @ #889 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 11:21 am
The Irish have a way with words, to be sure. 🙂
‘fess,
That’s why I think President Obama should go up against Trump. He’s the only one who can do it and win, I reckon. Or maybe Michelle Obama. But she’d have to go low, as well as high.
Not fair.
PNG is forcing us to take McKim back.
Brilliant!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/18/political-gaffe-neil-kinnock-ed-miliband?CMP=share_btn_tw
KayJay
A little puzzle for you today… Since the ‘improvements’ on Twitter (which make it faster – it was deadly slow before) it frequently needs reloading, and I mean several. Is it just me? I use Chrome.
Big droughts get a name. The previous biggest drought was the Federation Drought.
I am calling this one the Coalition Drought.
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6282143/drought-now-officially-our-worst-on-record/
Boerwar says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 11:32 am
They already have more than enough undesirables in their Parliament without allowing imports.
You couldn’t script this could you! 😆
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/labor-fight-roils-bernie-sanders-campaign-as-workers-demand-the-15-hourly-pay-the-candidate-has-proposed-for-employees-nationwide/2019/07/18/3a6df9f4-a966-11e9-9214-246e594de5d5_story.html?utm_term=.e53015dc300c
Edit: several times in the morning.