In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.
In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.
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In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).
The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.
Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.
The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.
The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.
zoomster
The MSM busily asserting same-same every time Labor picks up on a blatant lie is a kind of bullying.
lizzie
Yes – I’ve also just realised what a nice gotcha that Albo instruction gives the media —
Journo: So, you’re saying the Minister said X and is now saying Y. Are you accusing him of lying?
—- continued until the MP in question either looks like a prevaricating idiot or says that yes, the Minister was lying, whereupon the headline is “Shadow Minister defies Leader”
lizzie @ #778 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 7:38 am
Actually good at stopping boat arrivals, very ordinary at stopping air arrivals. Maybe I’m over-complicating the basis for this but I suspect it goes to a certain sense of deep-seated and weird subconscious anxiety felt by anglos about the drastic change boat arrivals can usher in which goes back more than 200 years.
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 8:23 am
Just gotta give PhoenixRED credit for maintaining the biggest, longest, sore-loser whinge in history over the Democrats losing the 2016 US election.
Every day we’ve been assured that this unsealed indictment or that Special Prosecutorial investigation will not only result in Trump going to jail for the duration, but also that substantial numbers of his family and/or staff will accompany him.
**************************************************
Not quite so Bushfire Bill – I still have my US green card as well as many friends and family in the US and am deeply saddened by what is presently happening in the US – the fact that Trump is NOT a Democrat has nothing to do with what I feel is wrong in the US at present
I think if you follow up certain stories – as below – it is obvious that Trump/Family members is being “protected'” by the present Attorney General William Barr who is closing down federal investigations and misrepresenting things like the Mueller report …..
Ask Michael Cohen – presently behind bars ;;
Trump regularly talked to Cohen during hush-money negotiations
Newly released court documents show Michael Cohen kept his boss in the know as he hammered out a deal with Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/18/trump-cohen-hush-money-negotiations-1421394
Bert says:
Donald has assured us it is actually a YUGE ‘small detail’ 🙂
Remember the little problem with bullet proof vests that didn’t fit “female contours”?
Designers of the frames to hold patients’ chins to keep their heads steady during eye investigations suffer from an even greater prejudice, apparently believing that only males have their eyes tested.
Yesterday I was having difficulty moving close to the chin rest and I muttered “my bosom is in the way”. The opthamologist’s assistant said “You’re not the first this morning,” and explained that the design only suits males of about 5ft10ins. Shorter ladies with very full curves are in real trouble, she told me.
zoomster
Most of the media are smart enough to do gotchas, but not to research untruths and call out pollies. :sigh:
Morning all and thanks BK and phoenixRed for today’s offerings.
zoomster @ #798 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 8:27 am
And exactly the same thing can be said about criticising Trump.
lizzie says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 7:38 am
Actually it seems they’re only good at stopping non boats that have not pre-advised customs of their arrival.
Asylum seekers arriving by air are rising rapidly and drugs usually come into the Country on commercial flights or hidden in a registered ship’s cargo.
Bellwether
As an Anglo and a Boat Arrival myself, I think you’re stretching it a bit.
Poroti
The cladding problems we have in NSW are not just due to lack of regulation, but also due to a serious lack of enforcement of regulations that do exist.
Typical for these types of governments (state and federal).
Dare I say ‘Fascist’?
Socialist gov’ts act in the interests of society, Fascist gov’ts act in interests of big business.
Crowe outright lying here:
Yet the challenge for Anthony Albanese is significant. Under Bill Shorten, Labor went too far with its rhetoric about the franking credits policy – not least with claims that it was somehow a “gift” for its recipients.
Weren’t retirees merely relying on tax rules that had been in place for decades, dating back to Paul Keating and John Howard, and therefore planning ahead just as politicians had urged them to do?
Retirees were NOT relying on ages old tax reforms, whose origins were lost in the mists of time.
The rort aspect of the franking credit scheme was a very generous amendment to it by Howard alone, no Keating involvement at all.
The “planning ahead” argument effectively locks in any and every change in tax rules forever… as long as the changes involve a lessening of the tax take. Increases, on the other hand, are verboten.
Speaking of the origins of franking credits scheme, the aim of it was to tax only once, not nunce. The basis of it was that if you receive income from dividends, as an individual you still have to pay tax on it at the going personal rate. So yeah, getting rid the requirement to pay tax WAS a gift.
In the wake of Trump’s racist trolling and the lynch mob of his fans, ‘he’s scaring the children’ is the best Harris can come up with? Yeesh!
Confessions @ #815 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 8:56 am
The 4chan trolls will have a meme field day with that!
‘Shh!, Donald, you’ll frighten the kids!’ 🙄
I have some knowledge of the cladding crisis affecting this country.
If you happen to be a sub contractor working an a project and are employed to provide and install cladding, the company employing the contractor will demand and require that the cladding is ticked off. Ie. That it is xrayed to ensure the interior of cladding is fire resistant product etc. As well as testing done on the actual exterior of the cladding.
What’s the problem then. Well if the company itself were supplying and installing the product, they tick it off themselves.
Just think of the biggest construction companies in this country and you will understand why we now have a crisis.
Oh and also this cladding which was initially a licensed German product, but as with most stuff was then produced by China to look the same , but at a third of the price.
Electrical cables, safety glass and steel also imported from China are an issue as well.
At this stage I think it probably better if Trump stay in place to face the voters next year. The Alternative is Mike Pence, who while just as dangerous is probably more electable.
Maude Lynne
By George, I think you’ve got it! We have a fascist govt. pretending to be a socialist one.
Not just them either.
Brad HeathVerified account @bradheath
NEW: Federal prosecutors’ decision to end an investigation into hush money payments to women claiming affairs with Donald Trump relied at least in part on longstanding Justice Department policy that a sitting president cannot be charged with a crime
Cohen’s testimony, public recordings, newly released court filings, and the facts of the case all strongly suggest Trump was involved directly in the criminal payments. But we know that DOJ policy would prevent Trump from being indicted even if prosecutors had rock-solid evidence against him.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/18/justice-department-weighed-rule-not-charging-president-ending-trump-hush-money-case/1769339001/
phoenixRed:
The only thing protecting Trump is that DoJ policy and his remaining in office. No wonder he’s started fake joking of serving more than 2 terms.
C@tmomma @ #816 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 9:01 am
They don’t need to, that one was done years ago.
https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/why-trump-is-attacking-the-squad
About Albo, under his so called leadership I’ve lost any faith in the Labor party to stand for anything. The current performance is worse than the kick in the guts election night. So who can they call on as a leader? I have absolutely no idea. They all seem equally useless.
Vic,
It’s not only China’s lower wages that mean they can produce goods cheaper. They cut corners.
Having seen that stupid ad on TV one too many times where the perfect dad stands in front of the class of gorgeous little 6 year olds and states proudly that he is a Project Manager and he drives a Hilux King Cab ute you just get guided to what the problem is right there.
The Project Managers are more concerned with getting the job done at least cost so they can impress the ‘Boys’ with their latest Big Boys Toy.
Bert @ #827 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 9:32 am
We got that the last million times. 😐
Having Trump stand down with Mike Pence running instead would be a disaster for the centre-left. While Trump alters his position to suit the time, Pence is unchangingly hard-right on all issues and would get the evangelical oldies to the ballot box en masse, even on their last legs.
Out of all the candidates for the Republican Party in 2016, Trump was probably the “least bad” (except for probably Kasich). Ted Cruz would have been infinitely worse.
a r
I heard a local Lib (who is, I will say, a genuinely lovely woman) pleading on local radio for people to consider refugees when they voted…she then added that she’d already decided how she was going to vote but OTHERS should think about refugees when they voted….
(That was a few elections ago — she made it very clear at the polling booth this time that she no longer has any time at all for the Liberal party…)
Cameron C.,
Actually, looking back, Jeb Bush would have been the best Republican to win the nomination.
Kasich definitely, but Jeb Bush would’ve been infinitely better than Trump.
C@t
Products made in China are so much cheaper, and as you say they cut corners on quality.
This is not a secret of course.
The quality in construction as a result is now so bad, and hence why we have problems with not only inferior products that are a safety hazard, but also as seen with the issues in buildings in Sydney recently, the integrity of the actual buildings.
One thing I can say from the experience of family members who have worked in Sydney on occasion, the construction industry there is rogue compared to that in Melbourne.
And it can be tracked in part to the union not being effective in NSW.
Between Chinese steel of dodgy quality and often untraceable provenance, and dogy bros concrete made with a little bit more water and a little bit less cement than required, I wonder how close to the wind a lot of recently built high-rise structures are.
I recently linked an article by Alistair Campbell. It was the first use of ‘post shame’ politics that I had read. Here is another use. It raises a very practical political issue for the Centre: what to do about the shameless lies of both the extreme Right and the extreme Left. Neither Campbell nor O’Reilly seem to have much of an idea about how to respond effectively. But at least they are nailing a core political problem confronting our democracy. The article as a whole is well worth a read. Here are the concluding paras:
‘It has been a boom year for bigots and liars, and we need to stop coddling those who think otherwise. In a post-shame political landscape, we can’t run political coverage like an honesty-box fruit stall in a small village churchyard.
If appealing to the decency of indecent people is the only weapon in our arsenal, then we must learn a few new tricks. The old kryptonite’s not working, and a new race of shameless supervillains is flourishing before our eyes.’
• Séamas O’Reilly is a writer from Derry
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/18/political-gaffe-neil-kinnock-ed-miliband
Andy Murray
Put it this way, I wouldn’t be buying a high rise apartment anytime soon
Victoria says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 9:02 am
This is not the or an issue.
The company that imported the materials is responsible for ensuring the materials conform to the required standard.
If they don’t conform to the standard, then they cannot be sold saying that they do.
They can still sell the materials, if they are still legal, as another product, for alternate uses, but only the appropriate standard will be attached.
If a user chooses to substitute materials that don’t conform then they bear that responsibility.
The reasons these materials were used on buildings in Australia has nothing to do with the manufacturer and everything to do with decisions made in Australia.
Any building types here know what makes this cladding flammable? Is it plastic, compressed paper, woodchips? Something else?
C@t give me an example of one positive thing that Albo and the rest of them have done, just one to give Labor supporter’s a little bit of hope. A million times? can’t be more than 666.
In light of the result of the last federal election, world trends (Trump, Brexit, etc) and the “quiet implosion” of the Albanese Labor leadership, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the best move for progressives in Australia now is to focus on work in non-governmental agencies and lobbying, and in state government (something that the UK and NZ for example don’t even have).
The reality of the situation is that the Murdoch-Rag media have a near monopoly on the nation’s media and that with the exception of a few educated “elites”, most people would blindly believe them (this is NOT an inditement on Australians, but it would be the same in any other country except perhaps in Scandinavia). Morriscum could probably dismantle Medicare, rescind marriage equality and then be caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy and still be re-elected. It is rather akin to the situation for progressive Jewish people in Israel where the reality is that there will be a right-religious government for the forseeable future.
As a migrant, I will continue to monitor the situation closely. There is enough precedent in Europe in the 1930’s that if the situation deteriorates further (as it almost certainly will), I will either move to Aotearoa (as long as legally that’s still an option) or simply go back to where I came from (which is probably what the Trumpite base/silent majority want but I have more dignity than to accept xenophobic persecution).
“Spotted at the Seymour Centre revival of the Paul Keating comedy The Gospel According to Paul on Wednesday night: Labor leader Anthony Albanese and federal frontbencher Tony Burke.“ SMH
Having seen this tour de force by Jonathan Biggins, I can recommend it when it comes to your town/suburb. He really hones in on how PJK applied leadership to address his insightful understanding of the Australian condition – focusing on the journey of a boy from Bankstown to Canberra via the Labor Party. His mentorship from Jack Lang was a unique education.
Albo would do well to reflect on the ‘non-comedy’ message of PJK.
lizzie @ #811 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 8:50 am
But are you over 200 years old?
USA is having a Julia Gillard moment of misogynistic
Hmmm….meanwhile, the NSW Department of Environment and Planning website keeps emphasising that…
‘It is important to note that the presence of external combustible cladding on a building does not necessarily mean it is a fire hazard.’
https://www.claddingregistration.nsw.gov.au/what-combustible-cladding
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/18/australias-richest-charities/
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 9:54 am
IIRC, the cladding is a sandwich of aluminium with a filling for insulation.
I think it’s the combustible properties of the materials used for the insulation layer that differentiate products and where they can be used.
‘lizzie says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 8:43 am
Remember the little problem with bullet proof vests that didn’t fit “female contours”?
Designers of the frames to hold patients’ chins to keep their heads steady during eye investigations suffer from an even greater prejudice, apparently believing that only males have their eyes tested.
Yesterday I was having difficulty moving close to the chin rest and I muttered “my bosom is in the way”. The opthamologist’s assistant said “You’re not the first this morning,” and explained that the design only suits males of about 5ft10ins. Shorter ladies with very full curves are in real trouble, she told me.’
I believe this is a real problem. Here is a little story that may make you feel better.
Many years ago I had a major operation in my cloaca, or ‘up the clacker’ as it was known colloquially. Op went well. Post op went well. Recovery went well and I had discussed with the surgeon leaving hospital and going home. Upon being told that my home was 16 hours drive from darwin and 6 hours drive from the nearest doctor and no airstrip and no radio he opined that it might be wise to stick around for a while. This possibly saved my life.
That very afternoon I woke up feel pleasantly light-headed and rather lethargic. I pulled my hand from under the bedcovers and noted that it was bright red from above the wrist to the finger tips. I had been quietly bleeding to death. I pressed the buzzer. In the fullness of time a bored young nurse appeared. I showed her my hand. Boredom disappeared. Full on emergency! Apart from calling in the surgeon and readying the op room, there was an immediate pressure bandaging of the fundament. In a flurry of blood, pads, and bandages the nurse somehow managed to bisect my testicles with one of the bandages and was lustily tightening it when I begged her to stop. She actually blushed.
Any building types here know what makes this cladding flammable? Is it plastic, compressed paper, woodchips? Something else?
______
BB
It is expanded polystyrene, polyethylene or polypropylene foam encased between thinnish sheets of aluminium decorated on one side.
…I suppose one could say the same about zeppelins and hydrogen….
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/07/18/scott-morrison-employment-figures/
“One is that you can see the turn up in the NSW unemployment rate, the champion employment state.
“The other is our two-speed economy.”
“While we talk about Australia’s 5.2 per cent unemployment rate, the reality is that outside NSW and Victoria, it remains stuck around 6 per cent – a very long way from the 4.5 per cent target, let along the 4 per cent that might be closer to the necessary level.”
“How good are jobs? Very.”
“How concerning is a government in denial about where its policies are taking us? Very.”