In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.
In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.
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In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).
The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.
Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.
The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.
The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.
Albo is right because the problem the ALP has when it name calls is it draws attention to its own lies over the years and yes both sides tell plenty of porkies along with their pork and people just turn off. By all means attack incompetence, waste and rorts.
Rex Douglas @ #749 Thursday, July 18th, 2019 – 10:01 pm
And you are tone deaf.
Jackol:
I believe this is correct.
And, by making the visual association between the “annoying yellow ads” and Mr Shorten, he established a link in people’s minds between their annoyance and his target.
I think we can say Mr Palmer knew what he was doing, and I think we’ll find he had (paid) help from people who’d done it before.
How can one perform the analysis?
Palmer still has a few billboards up. I saw one in Melbourne’s inner east, on Palmer I think he turned a lot of people off the campaign, he had a bigger impact than the media did.
On the “Pelosi vs. the Squad” matter that was mentioned earlier, this discussion is quite interesting: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-squad-v-pelosi-be-a-big-problem-for-democrats-in-2020/
Zoomster
Vey sorry to see what Mehreen has written. So she is in the Labor must be destroyed camp now too. They may as well stick with Di Natale
Albanese has always been in the Greens must be destroyed camp.
D&M
There’s also a lack of – focus? clarity? – in the piece. I didn’t get out of it any concrete idea of what she sees as the way forward.
Peg
Well, given Albo’s record so far, I think the Greens are safe then.
I always thought Peg would be an Albo fan…
I like it that anybody can update Wikipedia…
Steve
It was 7.8 between 550 employees so it’s an average of $14.5K each. I just can’t believe you can rip off 550 people to the tune of 14 thousand each and not end up in jail and still be allowed to run a company.
Re Diogenes @10:51. That is bad. Just a $200,000 fine? It’s a joke.
Wonderful blog.
Hideous people.
I hate when people graffiti wikipedia. It’s a not-for-profit mostly volunteer organisation and now they have to expend resources undoing petty vandalism.
Luke says:
Thursday, July 18, 2019 at 11:41 pm
Where’s the graffiti?
Since when has Sam Newman been a media executive?
Too lazy to read his brief. His expression in insulting.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_vACvRUIAIs2rD?format=jpg&name=small
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49040128?ns_mchannel=social&ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbcnews
This seems in tune with much of the overnight commentary.
***
Jul 17
@TrudyMcIntosh
Richard Marles has a real mea culpa moment on coal today in Rockhampton. The Deputy Labor Leader says coal industry should be ‘celebrated’ – he says he has been guilty in not doing that citing his ‘tone deaf’ comments to Sky News about the demise of thermal coal industry
Jeffrey Epstein denied bail, will remain jailed pending trial on sex trafficking charges
NEW YORK — Multimillionaire and registered sex offender Jeffrey Epstein will remain jailed while he awaits trial on new allegations that he sexually abused children, a federal judge ruled Thursday.
Epstein will be held in the federal detention center in Manhattan.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/judge-to-decide-whether-jeffrey-epstein-can-be-released-from-jail/2019/07/17/3e3cdb16-a8a0-11e9-9214-246e594de5d5_story.html?utm_term=.3f3d9aa408ce
Just thinking about this, Albanese has told Labor MPs not to say that the Coalition are lying, business. Now, if he is actually being clever then he may be trying to get them instead to say…’well, the facts of the matter are these…’
If that’s the case, then ok.
A running fact check of the government would be a useful thing.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
An angry Ben Schneiders says wage theft is a business model so let’s criminalise it!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/wage-theft-is-a-business-model-let-s-criminalise-it-20190718-p528c4.html
Some country towns police worker exploitation in a different way.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/better-migrant-worker-policy-grown-locally-20190715-p527es.html
The SMH editorial is concerned about the damaging effect that Trump’s racist outbursts are having on the cause for global democracy. And it says that if Morrison is asked, he must find a way to distance himself from Trump’s words, even if that spoils the mood for his trip to the US in September.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-racist-rhetoric-hurts-the-cause-of-global-democracy-20190718-p528k7.html
Being a Trump ‘bestie’ comes with its own challenges for Scott Morrison, writes Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-being-a-trump-bestie-comes-with-its-own-challenges-for-scott-morrison-120609
David Crowe adds a bit of common sense to the franking credits issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/generational-tax-divide-is-real-but-will-take-years-to-fix-20190718-p528gm.html
The AFR reveals that some former members of APRA’s governance, culture and remuneration team have said they were regularly undermined by senior executives who did not believe in their mission.
https://outline.com/KeXEXy
Albanese has called on MPs to lift the standard of political discourse by not calling opponents liars. Does this mean we will see more of the words prevaricator, false witness, deceiver, dissimulator, romancer, maligner, deluder, trickster, cheat, misleader, falsifier, story-teller, equivocator, fibber, one who lies, fabricator, pseudologue, perjurer, fabulist, pseudologist?
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6281902/albanese-tells-mps-they-are-not-allowed-to-call-opponents-liars/?cs=14350
Phil Coorey comments on the rather deafening silence from politicians from both sides of the house.
https://outline.com/kpkNKK
An Australian research team led by the renowned quantum physicist Prof Michelle Simmons has announced a major breakthrough in quantum computing, which researchers hope could lead to much greater computing power within a decade.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jul/19/quantum-leap-australian-researchers-could-lead-to-much-greater-computing-power
Deborah Snow reports that Noel Pearson has welcomed a landmark speech by former Chief Justice of the High Court, Murray Gleeson, making a strong legal and ethical case for an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to be enshrined in the constitution.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/noel-pearson-welcomes-former-chief-justice-s-backing-for-indigenous-voice-20190718-p528mm.html
The state’s peak strata body organisation has warned that apartment owners will foot the bill for building defects unless the NSW government spends hundreds of millions to fix the “systemic crisis”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-cladding-crisis-would-take-1-billion-to-fix-strata-body-warns-20190718-p528l6.html
The ongoing drought through the Murray Darling Basin is now the worst on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6281486/drought-now-officially-our-worst-on-record/?cs=14329
Bloody hell! Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea together account for annual ice imports worth between $43 billion and $87 billion.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/criminal-networks-importing-staggering-amounts-of-ice-into-australia-un-20190718-p528fg.html
Rob Harris writes that A $370 million plan to feed Victoria’s booming renewable sector into the national energy grid would deliver almost double the benefit.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/massive-new-transmissions-network-to-lower-prices-and-stabilise-the-power-grid-20190718-p528kc.html
A trial of “world-first technology” that snapped photos of every driver who passed cameras on two Sydney roads, irrespective of whether they were in the wrong, has raised concerns from the state’s Privacy Commissioner, internal government documents show.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/high-tech-cameras-to-nab-motorists-catches-eye-of-privacy-commissioner-20190718-p528dt.html
Martin Hurst declares that Peter Dutton is a callous individual, even by Australian standards, and he has already pronounced himself judge, jury and executioner in the case of the two ABC reporters at the centre of recent federal police raids on their Sydney office.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/why-im-not-signing-up-to-demand-the-government-legislate-press-freedom-laws,12913
In the lead up to her meeting with Morrison Jacinda Ardern says Australia’s deportation laws are having a “corrosive effect” on the relationship between the two countries.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/corrosive-effect-on-our-relationship-jacinda-ardern-criticises-australian-laws-20190718-p528ju.html
The Conversation explains how one-third of all preschool centres could be without a trained teacher in four years if we do nothing.
https://theconversation.com/one-third-of-all-preschool-centres-could-be-without-a-trained-teacher-in-four-years-if-we-do-nothing-120099
Michelle Pini writes that it appears foreign-owned mining giant Adani lied to ensure federal and state government approval for its Carmichael Mine.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/adani-pirates-hold-australia-hostage,12912
Analysis of McKinsey & Co contracts administered by Labor and LNP governments over the last 12 years shows cost blow-outs in eight out of 23 Coalition contracts compared with Labor’s two. The Coalition’s superior economic management narrative is taking quite a battering lately. Jommy Tee reports, aided by Ronni Salt.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/mckinsey-co-clean-up-big-time-thanks-to-lnp-economic-bungling/
Stephen Bartholomeusz explores the vexed issue of NBN pricing for streaming.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/nbn-co-shies-away-from-a-netflix-tax-debate-that-was-misconceived-20190718-p528fd.html
Data reveals the richest charities in Australia – and who gets the most government handouts.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/18/australias-richest-charities/
Potentially lethal caffeine-rich energy drinks have been banned for sale to children under 16 in the UK, after years of campaigning from health advocates, parents and teachers.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/18/uk-bans-energy-drinks-for-kids/
Woolworths has announced the first three Big W stores that will close as part of the company’s plan to contain losses from the languishing retail chain.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/woolworths-announces-first-big-w-store-closures-in-cost-cutting-plan-20190718-p528df.html
Cars, TVs and computer games are all cheaper than they were 20 years ago, but the cost of things Australians actually need have spiked to double and triple in the same time.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2019/07/18/cost-of-living-cheaper/
Donald Trump and his press secretary were directly involved in discussions that led to an illegal hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election campaign, according to the FBI.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/18/trump-hope-hicks-stormy-daniels-michael-cohen-fbi
And The Guardian editorialises that it has long been abundantly clear that Donald Trump has no respect for human rights. Now, the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, wants to build a new intellectual framework to justify the administration’s rollback of human rights protections.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/18/trump-pompeo-human-rights-un-orwellian-mission-redefine
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir with another cutting contribution.
Out in the bush with David Rowe.
Cathy Wilcox has been on a streak lately.
From Matt Golding
Simon Bosch and the two faces of Folau.
Andrew Dyson and ugly America.
Jim Pavlidis and some flammable issues for Morrison.
Peter Broelman goes to Area 51.
Jon Kudelka linked this one from the US.
Kudelka on how to interpret our constitution.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8146fda7d719f5990908f376028faa5f?width=1024
From the US
Top Intel Democrat says new court documents show Trump could have been ‘criminally charged’
New evidence emerged Thursday related to the campaign finance crime that helped put former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen in prison. A judge unsealed court documents in the case, indicating that the investigation has concluded and revealing extensive communications between Cohen, then-candidate Donald Trump, and campaign spokesperson Hope Hicks.
According to House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff, the new materials show that were Trump not the president, “he would be criminally charged as Cohen’s co-conspirator.”
“The documents unsealed in the SDNY case against Michael Cohen demonstrate that Donald Trump was intimately involved in devising and executing a corrupt scheme to prevent his affair with Stormy Daniels from being revealed in the final weeks of the 2016 election,”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/top-intel-democrat-says-new-court-documents-show-trump-could-have-been-criminally-charged/
Fox News’ Napolitano joins chorus of people telling Trump his attacks are ‘xenophobic, racist and hateful’
Fox News Judge Andrew Napolitano is one of the few conservatives on the network willing to stand up to President Donald Trump for telling four Congresswomen of color to “go back” to where they came from.
In an op-ed for Fox News, he called the remarks “xenophobic, racist and hateful.”
“Politics is not beanbag, but if the great painful lesson of American history has taught us anything, it is that there is no place in our public discourse for racial hatred,” Napolitano wrote. “The Democrats know this. The president apparently doesn’t.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/fox-news-napolitano-joins-chorus-of-people-telling-trump-his-attacks-are-xenophobic-racist-and-hateful/
Jacinda Arden at Melbourne Town Hall with Trioli.
https://www.facebook.com/breakfastnews/videos/513023969436083
Bloody hell! Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea together account for annual ice imports worth between $43 billion and $87 billion.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/criminal-networks-importing-staggering-amounts-of-ice-into-australia-un-20190718-p528fg.html
Still happening. No Pill Testing. So, Pill Testing would have what negative effect exactly?
C@t
So Dutton’s Border Force are roolly skilled at keeping out asylum seekers, but pretty useless at stopping drug smugglers/importers?
lizzie @ #778 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 7:38 am
And don’t forget, targeting journalists for prosecution! But only from the ABC it seems. 😡
Housing Minister admits new policy will cause house prices to rise!
CNN’s Jim Acosta on ‘Send Her Back’ chants: Trump is trying to ‘gaslight his way out of this mess’
“President Trump is now gaslighting his way out of the mess he started with his racist tweets,” said Acosta. “Today, the president claimed he tried to put a stop to the ‘Send Her Back!’ chants coming from his crowd in North Carolina last night, but that’s not true. Unlike the president, the video doesn’t lie.”
Watch the video. The president paused and allowed the chants to continue for a full 13 seconds as he attacked Omar.” He played a clip of Trump accusing her of “vicious, anti-Semitic screeds,” and pausing to let the crowd roar.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/cnns-jim-acosta-on-send-her-back-chants-trump-is-trying-to-gaslight-his-way-out-of-this-mess/
NOAA’s finding that last month was hottest June ever recorded bolsters calls for radical climate action
The revelation came in a new monthly climate report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Scientists at the agency’s National Centers for Environmental Information found that “the global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average for June 2019 was the highest for the month of June in the 140-year NOAA global temperature dataset record, which dates back to 1880.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/noaas-finding-that-last-month-was-hottest-june-ever-recorded-bolsters-calls-for-radical-climate-action/
lizzie,
I was listening to a discussion on the ABC yesterday about the housing market (because that’s what’s important to the ABC these days, apparently 🙄 ), and an auctioneer from the Eastern Suburbs/ Potts Point area of Sydney said that within 12 hours (!!!) of the election result being known the property market had turned around and his phone started ringing off the hook with property investors ( 😡 ) wanting to get in as quickly as possible to snap up a bargain in a depressed market!
This society is sick.
NOAA’s finding that last month was hottest June ever recorded bolsters calls for radical climate action
It’s going to be 5 degrees above average in Sydney this weekend!!!
Sorry, C@t, those record temps no longer deserve exclamation marks. 🙁
If you are looking to buy an apartment in NSW it’s good to know that our state Gov’t definitely does NOT have your back. In fact, they WANT you to ignore combustible cladding issues.
Don’t want to buy a fire trap? Don’t expect the Minister for No Regulation to help you.
That’s right, no funds for councils to assess the cladding, but no information for buyers either. Welcome to Gladys’ mushroom club.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-18/sydney-buildings-have-dangerous-cladding-documents-reveal/11321056
Real estate agents and their ‘expert’ opinion, now where was it i saw them on the list of trusted professions ? Ah yes now I remember, 3rd last just ahead of advertising peeps and used car salesman at the arse end of the list.
.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/australias-most-and-least-trusted-professions-politicians-are-on-the-rise-but-nurses-still-dominate/news-story/9fe9360588b7efd9be9f8e2344bec346
Crowe of Nine/Fairfax (naturally) blames Labor over the huge and growing disparity between wealthy people getting huge franking tax credits and poorer pensioners suffering from a deeming rate way out of line with actual interest rates.
This comment on the article sums up the massive hypocrisy of Crowe and the rest of the MSM:
Remember Tony Abbott’s “No, no, no”?
Morrison doesn’t say the word as often, but he might as well. No plans to change Newstart, either, rationalising it with “It’s $10 a week higher than everyone’s moaning about”.
Thanks as always for your efforts this morning. The Broelman cartoon has an “interesting” small detail in it, I wonder how he managed to slip that past the editors?
Maude Lynne
After the Grenfell fire i had a look at the manufacturer of the cladding’s website. The product itself is fine and met all the standards but was only allowed to be used up to buildings of 10? stories. It was of course cheaper than using the cladding that they made for taller buildings. So it was not the flammable side so much as it should not have been used on such a tall building in the first place. But hey we made a few thousand pounds extra profit 🙁 .
I wonder if any and if so how many of the Sydney problems are like this ? Should be some serious arse suing if it was. Pity we couldn’t also sue the politicians who promoted the removal of all that annoying ‘red tape’ 🙁
Don’t forget ‘Green Tape’! Those trees are annoying and get in the way of building developers too!
Just gotta give PhoenixRED credit for maintaining the biggest, longest, sore-loser whinge in history over the Democrats losing the 2016 US election.
Every day we’ve been assured that this unsealed indictment or that Special Prosecutorial investigation will not only result in Trump going to jail for the duration, but also that substantial numbers of his family and/or staff will accompany him.
We know Trump’s a buffoon and a crook, and is a blight on politics worldwide, but the constant, daily crying of “Wolf!” by his opponents is only thickening the moral skin of Trump his backers, emboldening them to believe they can get away with anything (as well as actively attempting to do so).
To see the smug look on their faces as they cheer on the latest Trump outrage, and heckle the accompanying condemnation of it is the perfect illustration of how to enable a political enemy by trying to weaken him.
There appears to be an entire sub-industry in American media that caters for sore Democrat losers. Every day it serves up a new scandal that will go precisely nowhere, except to strengthen Trump’s hold on not only power, but legitimacy, and to provide a steady stream of dollars for the peddlars of false hope.
lizzie @ #793 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 8:21 am
…who want to do naff all about it. Proudly.
Bushfire
I try to ignore the drawn-out Trump narrative as much as possible, but that video of Trump and the Crowd shouting “Send her back” was so like a lynch mob that it was horrifying (and the bastard is now trying to back away).
I’m always having difficulty explaining to candidates that there’s nothing wrong with criticising their opponents, and that doing so – particularly when it comes to the sitting member – isn’t being impolite, but is holding them to account.
The candidates who listen to this, and are prepared to call their opponents out, do better than the ones who don’t.
If we’re all so nice to each other that we don’t point out that X’s behaviour was objectionable, voters quite rightly think that X’s behaviour WAS acceptable (or remain unaware of it).
Bert
I missed that small “detail”.
Morning all. Thanks BK. That story on Vic power grid is frustrating.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/massive-new-transmissions-network-to-lower-prices-and-stabilise-the-power-grid-20190718-p528kc.html
I mentioned on this blog more than ten years ago (during Rudd stimulus) that upgraded power grid connections in SW SA and NW Vic would be good projects to include because they would allow more renewable power and better redundancy in the network. That was based on lectures I had heard at Adelaide Uni from recognised experts. What a wasted ten years in energy policy. It isn’t just the politicians. AEMO were asleep at the wheel.
Bill
I take your point on Trump but at this stage it seems plain to me that Pelosi is weak in not trying to impeach Trump. It may go nowhere but a vote on partisan lines might energise the democrat base.