The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

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  1. Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 9:05 am

    Implement Labor’s EV policy.

    Greens EV policy, 2018:

    https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2018-12/Greens%202019%20Policy%20Platform%20-%20Electric%20Vehicles.pdf

    • Spend $150 million on fast charging infrastructure, ensuring you can get where
    you need with an EV

    As the Greens policy writings (and that is all they are) are nothing more than an attempt to shaft Labor, they actually don’t amount to much one way or the other.

  2. The high-profile shifts on issues that voters say they care about most mark a risky gambit by many candidates to tap into new energy in the party’s liberal base, the home of some of its loudest voices in the primary season. But it is triggering new worry that it comes at a cost: confirming Republican arguments that Democrats are far out of the mainstream, a threatening posture when moderate suburban voters have been the linchpin to winning general elections and down-ballot races.

    “Donald Trump, you can see it in his face. He thinks the game is coming to him. You can see it in his face every day,” said Sen. Michael F. Bennet (D-Colo.), a presidential candidate who has argued forcefully for more centrist policies.

    Bennet is particularly alarmed by the shift on health care. Among the top four Democrats as measured in national polls, only one — former vice president Joe Biden — has vocally opposed ending private insurance in favor of a government-run plan. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) plans to defend his Medicare-for-all plan in a major speech this week.

    “If we nominate someone that is for that plan, we will not win the presidency, and we will have no hope of winning a majority in the Senate,” Bennet said. “We should be on offense on health care. But if we’re going to go into this election talking about taking away [employer-based] health insurance for 180 million people, I guarantee we will be on defense.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-debate-how-far-left-is-too-far-left/2019/07/14/deb8ce90-9f38-11e9-9ed4-c9089972ad5a_story.html?utm_term=.813f0e83e7b2


  3. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 8:47 am

    …
    Labor needs to relearn the art of bringing the political centre with it. Less reliance on dodgy polling and pollster selected focus groups. More experience based political judgement.

    I can’t argue against that. But you have to be fair, Labor had a lot of vested interests aligned against it.

  4. But you have to be fair, Labor had a lot of vested interests aligned against it.

    But you have to be fair, since its inception, the Greens party has a lot of vested interests aligned against it, including the MSM and the political duopoly.

    These forces have always and continue to demonise the Greens and its policies.

    Despite often years of strident criticism railing against many Greens’ evidence-based policies (eg drugs), the political duopoly cherry picks parts of its policies when it politically suits, or comes on board many years later when the scientific evidence has already been well and truly ‘proven’.

  5. Sermon on the Mount with religious commentary.

    And he opened his mouth and taught them, saying:

    Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. (The Liberals and the Nationals will sool Robocop onto them on Earth.)

    Blessed are those who mourn, for they shall be comforted. (… comforted by Dutton of the Border Force.)

    Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth. (Pig’s Arse they will.)

    Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for righteousness, for they shall be satisfied. (Pig’s Arse they will.)

    Blessed are the merciful, for they shall receive mercy. (Not from the Liberals and the Nationals, they won’t.)

    Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God. (They can see the next best thing: Morrison during QT.)

    Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God. (No-one is calling anyone the son of God in the Monkey Pod Room.)

    Blessed are those who are persecuted for righteousness’ sake, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. (The Greens have got the kingdom of heaven stitched up.)

    Blessed are you when others revile you and persecute you and utter all kinds of evil against you falsely on my account. (Labor is blessed to the eyeballs.)

  6. frednk @ #1350 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 9:21 am


    Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 9:05 am

    Implement Labor’s EV policy.

    Greens EV policy, 2018:

    https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2018-12/Greens%202019%20Policy%20Platform%20-%20Electric%20Vehicles.pdf

    • Spend $150 million on fast charging infrastructure, ensuring you can get where
    you need with an EV

    As the Greens policy writings (and that is all they are) are nothing more than an attempt to shaft Labor, they actually don’t amount to much one way or the other.

    It’s the only reason Pegasus put it up. The Goody Two Shoes Party are better than Labor.

  7. “Colorado Sen. @MichaelBennet told reporters today he thinks Democrats could lose Colorado if
    @BernieSanders is the nominee, saying Sanders’ Medicare for All plan isn’t a winning message”

    What? Sanders is a dud candidate? Who was aware of this – apart from Michael Bennet and Blind Freddy?

  8. Despite often years of strident criticism railing against many Greens’ evidence-based policies (eg drugs), the political duopoly cherry pick parts of its policies when it politically suits, or comes on board many years later when the scientific evidence has already been well and truly ‘proven’.

    And Labor’s actions in government speak louder than Greens’ words.

  9. Australia really is a dumb little country.

    Unfortunately this is the inescapable conclusion after recent political events. It really is amazing how easily people can be manipulated for profit.

  11. Peg…the depiction of the array as a duopoly is completely misleading. The Liberals run this country at a federal level. Labor has won from Opposition and successfully run a multi-term, strong reformist Government just once since WW1.

    Labor came to power in 1941 as a minority and made modern Australia possible. Had the Greens been in existence at the time they would certainly have set out to prevent that. The Whitlam Government was destroyed by its enemies. The Greens would have been cheering that on. The Rudd Government imploded, in part because of its defeats in the Senate, defeats in which the Greens were instrumental.

    The Greens are an instrument of dysfunction on the Left. Get used to it. It is what you do. It is what you’re for. As things stand, given this dysfunction, there will never be another reformist Government that is firstly elected and secondly able to implement its program. One party rule is assured with the support of your party.

  12. Fess

    Trump is a one trick pony. His purpose on immigration is to rile up the base. The base will forgive him anything as long as he continues on his racist path.


  16. Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 9:38 am

    But you have to be fair, Labor had a lot of vested interests aligned against it.

    But you have to be fair, since its inception, the Greens party has a lot of vested interests aligned against it, including the MSM and the political duopoly.

    As the Greens are now little more than a campaign arm of the Liberal party that is little more than support for the charade.

  17. C@t

    And that too.
    Having said that Trump, like the Brexiteers, is tapping into peoples irrational fears and blame shifting. The immigrants are gonna take their jobs, and the superior white race is being overrun.
    The base are happy to see the inhumane way these illegal immigrants are being caged.
    If a dog or cat shelter had the same conditions, there would be an outcry and the shelter shut down immediately.
    It is a really horrendous state of affairs.
    Am I surprised. Sadly no.

  19. Compare the pair:

    Massive donor to the Liberal Party, Victorian, and owner of Visy Industries, Anthony Pratt:

    Australian company Visy Recycling was behind the export of a container of plastic waste that is regarded as toxic in Indonesia, according to documents seen by The Age and Sydney Morning Herald.

    The document shows the container was sent by Visy, one of the world’s biggest recycling companies, inspected in Melbourne on May 21, 2019, marked as “non-B3” mixed plastic scrap – that is, non-toxic waste – weighing 13.7 tonnes. It was shipped to the Batu Ampar port in Batam where Customs officials opened it and found it stinking and leaking black sludge with visible maggots. The recipient was intended to be local recycling firm Royal Citra Bersama.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/visy-recycling-behind-toxic-plastic-waste-container-in-indonesia-20190703-p523s0.html

    The Andrews Victorian Labor government, hand in hand with Advanced Circular Polymers founder, Harry Wang:

    Australia’s largest plastics recycling plant has opened in Victoria boasting a processing capability of 70,000 tonnes a year – equivalent to almost half of all plastics currently recovered across the state.

    The recycling plant, which has been part-funded by the Victorian Government, will transform large quantities of low-value contaminated mixed plastics from households into high-quality commodities that can go directly into the manufacture of new products. Plastic waste from commercial and industrial factories will also be recycled.

    The Advanced Circular Polymers plant will lead the way in innovative technology and boost Victoria’s thriving circular economy, while creating 46 jobs.

    Founder Harry Wang decided to take on the challenge of building the recycling plant three years ago, when he realised an Australian solution was needed for turning plastic waste into a resource.

    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/victoria-has-just-opened-australias-largest-plastic-recycling-plant,12900

  20. ItzaDream

    What’s wrong with being ‘immaculately groomed’? Is a scruffy beard and food stains a sign of virtue?

    Bellwether

    Many decades ago I recall that quite a few husbands called their wives ‘mother’. It had no sexual implication, in fact the opposite. IMO it reduced a wife to the status of only a childbearer, but also in those days, a woman wasn’t a ‘real woman’ until she bore children. Remember the insults to Gillard?

  23. The LOL of Mogg’s tweet is the “…” in that awfully strong swear word. 😆

    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    (@Jacob_Rees_Mogg)
    A d..n close run thing, we clearly don’t need Europe to win… #CricketWorldCupFinal https://t.co/lYsmHwy3Cy

    July 14, 2019

  24. Vic,
    You might be interested in reading this essay by Chauncey De Vega. So many echoes in Australia now under the Il Dutte/Morrison government:

    Bernard Harcourt, a professor of law and political science at Columbia Law School, explained to me in a recent phone conversation that from the perspective of Trump supporters, “power is being transferred away from white males.”

    This is the language of “white genocide,” which is commonly but not exclusively used by the new right. This fear is what the American new right really wants to emphasize and orient all of its politics around….

    What we’re seeing right now is how all of this neo-fascist, white supremacist, revolutionary language is becoming acceptable in different ways. Such language and concepts are starting to become part of the ordinary discourse in America. It’s starting to change the way people are willing to express themselves. Many people hardly notice when this happens. President Trump is articulating many of these ideas.

    This fascist ideology and its aesthetic are intoxicating for Trump’s voters and the millions of other Americans who share such values and beliefs. Racism, hostile sexism, nationalism, militarism, nativism and violence against the Other are not repellent to those Americans; rather, they are deeply compelling.

    The Democratic Party faces a great challenge in defeating such forces. Public opinion, social psychology and other research shows that today’s American conservatives are tribal, herd-minded and anti-intellectual.

    The post-civil rights era Republican Party has used racism to win and maintain power.

    White Christian conservatives are a key constituency for today’s Republican Party, and many of them apparently believe that Donald Trump is a messenger and savior sent to them by God. White conservatives, especially right-wing Christians, also believe they are in a literal, existential struggle for survival against black and brown people and “the secular world.”

    Donald Trump has combined these attributes and further weaponized them in the form of overt white supremacy and white identity politics. In this right-wing social imaginary Donald Trump stands as savior and father figure. Loyalty and obedience to Trump provides life and salvation to his followers. As Trump himself told Politico’s Tim Alberta: “Nobody gave them hope. … I gave them hope. Now, the Republican Party is strong. They’ve got to remain faithful. And loyal.”

    https://www.salon.com/2019/07/13/trump-the-storyteller-his-gift-for-narrative-is-why-he-may-win-again/

  25. Mavis Davis says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 10:38 am

    Poor Jacob Rees-Mogg, a man with impeccable Tory credentials, and who was my tip for the Tory leadership had he stood, puts foot in mouth:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/14/not-cricket-jacob-rees-mogg-criticised

    He didn’t even know that England’s ODI captain (Eoin Morgan) is Irish, his first name a give away.

    The default position when talking about English cricketers has long been,

    Where was he born? 😆

  26. The Age@theage
    3m3 minutes ago

    There is a billion dollar issue. Cars are becoming more fuel efficient, so less fuel is used and less tax is collected. But while there is an option that could transform the way we use roads, the government is terrified of the politics.

    In 2016, then urban infrastructure minister Paul Fletcher announced a bipartisan inquiry into road user charges, with an eminent Australian to be appointed chair, along with representatives from both Labor and the Coalition to help break the stalemate.

    More than 950 days later there is still no chair, no report and no inquiry.

    One inquiry-leading candidate rang now Opposition leader Anthony Albanese every month for 18 months asking what was going on. Eventually he gave up and asked to be pulled out of contention.

    Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack parked the rolling farce before the election and the Coalition has little intention of bringing it back.

    “Road-user charging for light vehicles, should governments wish to pursue wider reform of the way we pay for our roads, is likely to be a 10-15-year prospect,” a spokesman said in October.

    Labor has no plans to push them. It was burned by a misleading Coalition campaign that suggested it was going to force people to drive electric cars through plans to increase the number of electric vehicles used by the government.

    So here we are. Stuck on a hill in neutral, rolling away from a truly bipartisan approach that really is the only way out of this mess for whoever is in charge.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/the-traffic-solution-politicians-should-stop-running-away-from-20190711-p526eq.html

  27. When Boris becomes PM on July, 23, to assert his authority he must appoint people more incompetent than he is, starting with Rees-Mogg, a strident supporter of “hard Brexit”, and who rejects the widespread perception that he’s too posh. I mean, what’s wrong with donning a top hat, wearing spats?

  28. Mavis Davis says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 11:10 am

    When Boris becomes PM on July, 23, to assert his authority he must appoint people more incompetent than he is, starting with Rees-Mogg, a strident supporter of “hard Brexit”, and who rejects the widespread perception that he’s too posh. I mean, what’s wrong with donning a top hat, wearing spats?

    Minister for Northern Ireland seems the obvious position! 😆

  30. Remember.lots of people think just like Porleen. She thinks she’s ‘Indigenous’ because she was born in Australia.

    Controversial One Nation leader Pauline Hanson believes closing Uluru to climbers is a “ridiculous” move that is comparable to shutting down Sydney’s Bondi Beach.
    …
    The ban will take effect in October, but Ms Hanson challenged the decision during a Today show appearance on Monday.

    “The fact is, it’s money-making. It’s giving jobs to the Indigenous community, you’ve got over 4-500,000 tourists a year that want to go there and climb the rock,” she told the program.

    “It’s no different to saying we’re going to close down Bondi Beach because there are some people there that have drowned. How ridiculous is that! This is an iconic site for all Australians.”

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/pauline-hanson-compares-stopping-uluru-climbers-to-closing-down-bondi-beach

  31. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/15/economy-has-heaps-of-stimulus-but-rba-may-have-fired-too-many-bullets-warns-deloitte

    This Deloitte Access piece is way off. There is in fact ample scope for more fiscal stimulus. There is probably another $50 billion or $60 billion per year of unused capacity that the federal government could mobilize into productive use.

    There is also ample scope to bring the unemployment rate down. Introducing a Job Guarantee and strengthening our public services would quickly bring the unemployment rate down to 1 or 2 percent. We should not regard a 4.5 percent unemployment rate as a wonderful achievement.

  32. Ronni Salt@MsVeruca

    I’m currently reading a submission from @TheIPA to Josh Frydenberg’s very coincidental review into the EPBC Act, re agriculture.

    In typical IPA fashion, the review is written by two white blokes who have no agricultural or environmental qualifications whatsoever

    Your submission refers several times to the fact that the Environmental Biodiversity Protection & Conservation Act should be abolished on the grounds that it is “unconstitutional”.

    In fact, @TheIPA’s claim is that all Commonwealth environmental law is “unconstitutional”.

  33. Nicholas, there are plenty of things that could be done to relieve the repression of labour in our economy. None of them will be done while the Liberals run the show.

    The issues are first to remove the Libersls from power and then replace them with a durable and effective reformist Government. Neither of these steps will be possible while dysfunction persists on the centre left.

  34. lizzie @ #1370 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 10:39 am

    ItzaDream

    What’s wrong with being ‘immaculately groomed’? Is a scruffy beard and food stains a sign of virtue?

    Bellwether

    Many decades ago I recall that quite a few husbands called their wives ‘mother’. It had no sexual implication, in fact the opposite. IMO it reduced a wife to the status of only a childbearer, but also in those days, a woman wasn’t a ‘real woman’ until she bore children. Remember the insults to Gillard?

    lizzie, it wasn’t that he was immaculately groomed. He was nauseatingly immaculately groomed! It was the utter perfection of it all – the clothes, the hair, the perfect tan (fake doubtless), the oozing of wealth and comfort, so impeccable on the outside, so soiled within, imo. So perfect, but he couldn’t even look at them, that I saw. How weak is that.

    Your extension to scruffy beard and virtue is a non sequitur, sorry.

    (I’m can be as well groomed as the best of them, to the point of annoying OH, believe me, such was my parenting.)

  37. Comment on Ronni Salt’s Tweet above…

    Urban Wronski@UrbanWronski
    2h2 hours ago

    Expect to see our Environment Minister introduce this soon. Perhaps Frydenberg could “workshop”his colleagues. Or Melissa Price. Sussan Ley to co-ordinate. Craig Kelly and Barnaby to do media liaison.

  40. Hanson is indulging in more whitefella code speak.

    Uluru is not comparable to Bondi Beach because Bondi is publicly-owned and Uluru is privately owned.

    In relation to Uluru, it seems that private property rights are only supposed to work when whitefellas own the private property.

    The Uluru owners could put ‘Trespassers Prosecuted’ at the entrance to the Park, should they so desire.

  42. Itza

    ‘Many decades ago I recall that quite a few husbands called their wives ‘mother’. ‘

    And wives called their husbands were called ‘father’ or ‘dad’. Apparently this meant that the husband was reduced to the status of sperm generator. And he wasn’t a real man until he had impregnated.

    Is feminist analysis sometimes vastly over-wrought?

  44. The combo of Trump and Johnson:

    “It is the exact opposite of what began with Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill,” said Sidney Blumenthal, a former assistant and senior adviser to President Bill Clinton.

    “This is not a new stage; this is a radically different relationship. It’s not a special relationship; it’s a malicious relationship. It’s an alliance by the president of the United States and the prime minister of Great Britain not to save the west but to slay the west.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/14/donald-trump-boris-johnson-kim-darroch-ambassador

    The widespread assumption that a Boris Johnson premiership will instantly restore US-UK relations to brimming good health is facile. Trump’s inept, insecure, chaotic and dysfunctional behaviour, to borrow Darroch’s words, guarantees that Johnson, having betrayed a better man, will inevitably get zapped, too. He will richly deserve it, although it may be Britain that suffers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/13/this-death-star-presidency-is-no-ally-for-modern-britain

  45. The last in a series of tweets from Helen Razer about ABC News. So true.

    Helen Razer
    @HelenRazer

    Again. I do understand how easily one can be convinced of one’s excellence when surrounded by flatterers and funded quite well. But you must attempt to see your output as audiences have begun to: self-infatuated. You appeal to such a vanishing group

  47. Boerwar

    Is feminist analysis sometimes vastly over-wrought?

    Not feminists. My first mother-in-law accused me of not being a real woman.

  48. Boerwar @ #1392 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 11:40 am

    Itza

    ‘Many decades ago I recall that quite a few husbands called their wives ‘mother’. ‘

    And wives called their husbands were called ‘father’ or ‘dad’. Apparently this meant that the husband was reduced to the status of sperm generator. And he wasn’t a real man until he had impregnated.

    Is feminist analysis sometimes vastly over-wrought?

    My inclusion there is a mistake, just for the record.

    ‘Bellwether’ and ‘lizzie’ were having that conversation.

  49. It’s not a good day. The world is going to shit, and after all the rain there’s a huge hole in the wall of my dam.

  50. LNP State conference. Un-bloody-believable.

    Ben Eltham@beneltham
    1h1 hour ago

    Matt Canavan, the current federal science minister, ‘spoke in support’ of the Qld LNP idea to establish an agency questioning science

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