The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

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  1. Ben Eltham@beneltham
    1h1 hour ago

    Matt Canavan, the current federal science minister, ‘spoke in support’ of the Qld LNP idea to establish an agency questioning science
    ____
    So let’s have one to question religion then!

  2. An aside. For anyone with any interest or love of New York City, this is a lovely read. It is a city of people on the streets, a city of streets and walking, and walkers. And a city of people who just deal with it.

    We headed down Eighth, which by now was thick with walkers. The bars along the avenue had stayed open; people were drinking in the dark. Some regular people had jumped into the intersections, acting as a volunteer corps of crossing guards. When that many people are walking in the same direction—the whole west side of the street, it seemed, had turned into a southbound shuttle—they tend, unconsciously, to gather in clumps, like marathoners grouped according to pace.

    As we approached Times Square, and the sun began to set on so many unlit buildings, midtown, usually so impressive, looked a bit flimsy, like a model of itself ready to be mown down by a movie monster. Retail workers lounged in front of their now-closed stores—two guys in matching 7-Eleven shirts leaned against their storefront, greeting people as they passed. Lines at hot-dog carts and falafel trucks were crazily long. Two women outside a Chinese-food place, improvising, hawked bottles of water for a dollar. Lots of weed was being smoked.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-local-correspondents/escaping-manhattan-during-the-blackout-of-2019?utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_071419&utm_medium=email&bxid=5be9dca124c17c6adf4378ea&cndid=50169544&esrc=&utm_term=TNY_Daily

  3. BK

    It’s ironic, isn’t it? Science always questions itself, but dumbclucks like Canavan think they know everything.

  4. Controversial One Nation leader Pauline Hanson believes closing Uluru to climbers is a “ridiculous” move that is comparable to shutting down Sydney’s Bondi Beach.

    She has no right to have an opinion about Uluru. Full stop.

  5. Always good when a member of the Press complains. Ordinary fella, not so much.

    Malcolm Farr@farrm51
    1h1 hour ago

    Sydney’s Mascot Airport a hick facility. A joke. Today been trying since 7am to get a long-booked flight Canberra-Sydney Qantas, but blocked by cancellations Sydney end. Prospect strong will miss international connection this afternoon.

  6. lizzie @ #1278 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 11:58 am

    LNP State conference. Un-bloody-believable.

    Ben Eltham@beneltham
    1h1 hour ago

    Matt Canavan, the current federal science minister, ‘spoke in support’ of the Qld LNP idea to establish an agency questioning science

    “Well now young feller”, he said tamping his pipe, “I have heard that that’s just what science does”.

    ” Youse wot know stuff” he continued puffing furiously in a desperate attempt to ward of the swarming Aedes Mosquitoes, “prolly are more au fait with current OzScience (IPA version 2a) ways and means and will be able to further advise on the matter.”

    *
    Aedes Mosquitoes
    Can any type of mosquito carry dengue? The dengue virus is carried and spread by mosquitoes in the genus Aedes, which includes a number of mosquito species. Of these species, the primary vector of the dengue virus is the species Aedes aegypti. It is the principal dengue vector responsible for dengue transmission and dengue epidemics. Other mosquito species in the genus Aedes — including Aedes albopictus, Aedes polynesiensis, and Aedes scutellaris — have a limited ability to serve as dengue vectors.

    More important matters Lizzie what’s for lunch ❓ Man cannot live on coffee alone – ☕☕

  7. Years ago, Serco were a disaster in UK, I believe. How the hell did they manage to infiltrate Australia?

    Injustice@ocres_devil

    MITA Serco personal making up fake twitter accounts to abuse, threaten and torture detainees on social media after social media exposure of Serco’s treatment to visitors and detainees trying to cause harm and further suicide.

    ***
    RAC Victoria@racvictoria
    Jul 13

    Current and former employees on #Manus and #Nauru do the same and troll accounts of refugees. Report and block.

    ***
    Stephen Clendinnen@GargamelClen
    16h16 hours ago

    Serco personnel sometimes harass and provoke suicidal refugees. Serco personnel sometimes beat up refugees.
    There are never any consequences for their actions.

  8. lizzie

    There was a stream of shocking stories about Serco, coming out of the UK for years and yet no matter how they stuffed up they kept getting contracts. They must have had a lot of friends in high places, that and or a lot of dirt on people in high places.

  9. poroti

    I really don’t understand it. Perhaps they’re “too big to fail”. More power than pollies, obviously. 😡

  10. Unfortunately these two nitwits aren’t in the competition for the Darwin award.

    Thousands of commuters were stranded at stations in Melbourne’s south-east after a train slammed into two cars left on the Pakenham line during the morning peak hour.

    It is believed the drivers of two cars were involved in a minor nose-to-tail crash at Brunt Road, Officer, about 7am when they left their vehicles on the tracks to exchange details.

    An oncoming train on the Pakenham line, which had only just reopened after a partial closures of more than a week for Metro Tunnel works, applied its emergency brakes but hit the cars.

    https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/peak-hour-chaos-after-train-slams-into-two-cars-on-pakenham-line-20190715-p5277l.html

  11. lizzie says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 11:58 am

    LNP State conference. Un-bloody-believable.

    Ben Eltham@beneltham
    1h1 hour ago

    Matt Canavan, the current federal science minister, ‘spoke in support’ of the Qld LNP idea to establish an agency questioning science

    Isn’t that wasteful, duplicating something science already does?

    A clear example of a Minister having little idea about their portfolio.

  12. A clear example of a Minister having little idea about their portfolio.
    ______

    A clear example of a Minister having little idea.
    There. Fixed.

  13. BK says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 12:36 pm

    A clear example of a Minister having little idea about their portfolio.
    ______

    A clear example of a Minister having little idea.
    There. Fixed.

    A clear example of a Government member having little idea.
    There. Fixed. 😆

  14. Science is inherently self-questioning. Inquiry leads to discovery. In religious matters, inquiry is blasphemy and may become apostasy.

  15. Dan G

    Perhaps they always ignore any signs, such as “No Entry”, or “Leave Tracks Clear”. 😉
    Or perhaps they just panicked.

  16. MazzyJ@MazzyJ
    30m30 minutes ago

    Yeah it’s getting very Trump like scary here lately. I have family in the USA & a lot of what they said was going to happen there has & we are doing like wise. They now have a religious freedom act that allows you to discriminate against people you think are LGBTIQ+

  17. The age old question – may have an answer —

    Is the average Minister of the Crown (Australian Model)
    Stupid
    or
    Incompetent ❓

    At last

    a Lochinvar has come out of the North and is making his weight felt in favour of

    BOTH ❗

  18. C@tmomma @ #1403 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 12:05 pm

    Controversial One Nation leader Pauline Hanson believes closing Uluru to climbers is a “ridiculous” move that is comparable to shutting down Sydney’s Bondi Beach.

    She has no right to have an opinion about Uluru. Full stop.

    Is ‘controversial’ the new euphemism for fuckwit?

  19. We need to recognize that private sector balance sheets can become fragile, and that this is a problem if it happens on a wide scale.

    The proposed surplus for the federal government can ONLY happen if Australia’s households and firms in aggregate run a deficit.

    This is because the external sector – the rest of the world – consistently runs surpluses. The external sector runs surpluses with respect to us. We run deficits with respect to the external sector. It is called a current account deficit.

    It would not be good policy to try to manipulate Australia’s households into taking on more private debt. The gross debt of the Australian household sector is already equal to 120 percent of GDP, which is the highest it has ever been.

    We need to focus on issues of productive capacity. Are we meeting the needs of our people or not? How can we best provision everybody? How can we ensure continued productivity growth so that we continue to meet people’s needs as the dependency ratio grows?

    There is absolutely no need for the federal government to run a surplus.

  20. There is a context for the science questioning.
    It is no accident.
    It is part of the systematic global assault by the Right on climate science.
    At its most basic level the purpose is to demonstrate that there is still a substantial scientific ‘debate’ about climate science.
    More generally, the purpose is to validate stupidity and feelpinion over science and to validate populist posturers over scientists.
    With Canavan the purpose of a new agency ‘questioning science’ is to ensure more coal mines and to ensure that the Government is justified in spending money to keep clapped out coal generators in service.

  21. adrian @ #1424 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1403 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 12:05 pm

    Controversial One Nation leader Pauline Hanson believes closing Uluru to climbers is a “ridiculous” move that is comparable to shutting down Sydney’s Bondi Beach.

    She has no right to have an opinion about Uluru. Full stop.

    Is ‘controversial’ the new euphemism for fuckwit?

    No, that’s the name for the producers who give her a platform.

  22. Dan Gulberry says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 12:43 pm

    Lizzie,

    Leaving their cars on the track will void any insurance claims for damage done by the train

    It reminds me of a common situation in Asia where you can’t move a vehicle after an accident until the police have investigated it.

    Major delays often result especially on country roads where the accident can block the whole road and the responding police are some distance away.

    The locals take it in their stride and it tends to become an impromptu social gathering. 🙂

  23. There’s no particular reason to describe debt in relation to GDP. Debt is better compared to assets than output. Debt service costs can be more meaningfully compared to income.

    There are risks inherent in the assumption of debt. Likewise there are costs inherent in the avoidance of debt. We could run the economy much faster and more fully engage our productive resources if we invested more. The investment can be funded with debt or equity. Debt is inherently cheaper than equity, so we should use more of it.

  24. Urban Wronski@UrbanWronski
    18m18 minutes ago

    Has Marise Payne – Foreign Minister and Minister for Women done anything for women yet – apart from bagging the Family Court? So clever of ScoMo to choose a minister who will be out of the country so much. Almost on a par with Tony Abbott’s awarding the portfolio to himself.

    The real question is, whether any Minister in Morrison’s cabinet is capable or even willing to do the job they were appointed for.

  25. lizzie @ #1432 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 1:03 pm

    Urban Wronski@UrbanWronski
    18m18 minutes ago

    Has Marise Payne – Foreign Minister and Minister for Women done anything for women yet – apart from bagging the Family Court? So clever of ScoMo to choose a minister who will be out of the country so much. Almost on a par with Tony Abbott’s awarding the portfolio to himself.

    The real question is, whether any Minister in Morrison’s cabinet is capable or even willing to do the job they were appointed for.

    That’s the thing about life in Morristan…no one cares….
    Apparently life would have been way worse in Shortland.

  26. Oh dear. The Greens should just change their name to The Dilettante Nimbies Party:

    Crusader Brown turns against wind farm
    The Australian – Page 1 & 4 : 15 July 2019
    Original article by Graham Lloyd

    Former Greens leader Bob Brown is campaigning against the proposed Robbins Island wind farm in Tasmania. The $1.6 billion project will be one of the world’s biggest wind farms if it goes ahead, and a new undersea cable would be built to take the electricity it produces to the Australian mainland. Brown claims that the farm and the transmission lines needed to connect it to the planned undersea cable will spoil views, while its turbines will kill birds such as the wedge-tailed eagle and the orange-bellied parrot.

    I get the concern for the birds, though research I have seen has said that, in the Northern Hemisphere, where there are large wind farms, birds haven’t been dropping out of the sky and they are proving smart enough to avoid the wind rotor blades. However, will spoil views!?! Does Mr Brown live near there or something!?! Anyway, I thought The Greens were for 100% Renewables?


  27. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 1:17 pm

    Oh dear. The Greens should just change their name to The Dilettante Nimbies Party:
    ..

    Why not; he campaigned hard for Coalition; he is now campaigning against renewables, next he will be campaigning for nuclear, one small step to bring coal into the public gallery and declaring; don’t be scared.

  28. Without the Mordor Media reptiles’ interpretation what Bob was moaning about in full .
    .
    Letters to the Editor, July 8, 2019
    When Singapore’s Fragrance Group of developers raised the height of the proposed Harmony Hotel building in central Hobart from 120 metres to 210 metres the populace, quite reasonably, had conniptions…………………………………………Mariners will see this hairbrush of tall towers from 50km out to sea and elevated landlubbers will see it, like it or not, from greater distances on land……………………….Multiple species of international migratory, endangered and critically endangered shorebirds use the wetlands for six months of the year:………………………The transmission lines are planned to cut through wild and scenic Tasmania, including the northeast Tarkine forests and (until local outrage led to a sudden change) the Leven Canyon, en route to Sheffield and then the new export cable beneath Bass Strait. Why not use the more direct, much less environmentally destructive route aligning the Bass Highway? Better still, in the name of private enterprise, why not UPC build its own cable under the Strait from Robbins Island straight to wherever?
    https://www.bobbrown.org.au/tarkine_updates_090719

  29. Anyway, I thought The Greens were for 100% Renewables?

    Clearly not including any renewables that aren’t pleasant to look at. Energy needs to be both clean and pretty or it can’t be used. 🙂

    Seriously though, I thought “they kill birds” and “they’re ugly” were lines that Abbott and his ilk run. Why is even a former Greens person trotting them out? Is he going to claim that windmills produce subsonic waves that make people sick, too?

  30. C@tmomma @ #1429 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 12:55 pm

    adrian @ #1424 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1403 Monday, July 15th, 2019 – 12:05 pm

    Controversial One Nation leader Pauline Hanson believes closing Uluru to climbers is a “ridiculous” move that is comparable to shutting down Sydney’s Bondi Beach.

    She has no right to have an opinion about Uluru. Full stop.

    Is ‘controversial’ the new euphemism for fuckwit?

    No, that’s the name for the producers who give her a platform.

    Yes.
    Probably sourced from the ABC, as that’s one of their techniques, although not unique to them.

  31. I always think Paul Daley has a way of getting to the nub of the matter.

    The voice is a hostage – perhaps now already a victim – of Coalition internal politics. It is, perhaps foremost, a casualty of an acute absence of human empathy from a governing class that views and records Indigenous needs and aspiration through a cage-fight of (mostly non-Aboriginal) political short-term-ism, with its addiction to media- and ideological-management.

    And didn’t all this flush the liars out in force again last week! Senior Liberals and Nationals have been lying their tonsils out since Uluru with the false claim that the “voice” is a third parliamentary chamber.

    Barnaby Joyce, that great sage of Australian sentiment, did it within 24 hours of the Uluru Statement. Turnbull (weak as weak on recognition) and Morrison have both deliberately miscast the voice as another chamber. Peter Dutton replayed the lie last week. As did many others, including Joyce and Craig Kelly, a predictably reliable echo of the basest reactionary rhetoric.

    Kelly, among others, feared recognition could be racially divisive – “a reverse form of what South Africa was a few years ago”. It was breathtaking, craven, race-baiting – political discourse at its most nauseating. Which is quite something. But for many Indigenous Australians and the more ardent supporters of their rights it was even more egregious still – and part of a historical continuum of white lies.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/15/our-constitution-is-already-racist-but-the-politics-around-the-voice-have-been-craven-and-nauseous

  32. I wouldn’t believe anything published in The Australian about Bob Brown or anyone else the proprietors deem a class enemy.

  33. This was last January, but how good is Dutton’s Border Force?

    Police have busted an international drug syndicate that they allege has been using airline cabin crew on board flights from Malaysia to smuggle drugs into Australia over a number of years.

    Assistant Commissioner Tess Walsh from Victoria Police said the arrests occurred as part of Operation Sunrise, which involved the AFP, Australian Border Force and the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission.

    The joint investigative team has alleged that the syndicate used cabin crews at Malindo Air, a small airline based in Malaysia, to bring the drugs into the country.

    Investigators allege the drugs were brought in via Melbourne and Sydney, carried on the bodies of the cabin crew.

    One defendant allegedly told investigators it was his 20th trip into Australia.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/airline-crews-involved-in-drug-smuggling-ring,-afp-allege/10719106


  34. Steve777 says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 1:54 pm

    I wouldn’t believe anything published in The Australian about Bob Brown or anyone else the proprietors deem a class enemy.

    poroti kindly posted a link to bob browns letter.

  35. There are many, many wind turbines off the coast of Britain. Are there any survey results available on their effect on birdlife?

    Thinks: wind turbines are the trees of the future. 😮

  36. poroti says:
    Monday, July 15, 2019 at 12:22 pm
    There was a stream of shocking stories about Serco, coming out of the UK for years and yet no matter how they stuffed up they kept getting contracts. They must have had a lot of friends in high places, that and or a lot of dirt on people in high places.
    —————————–
    Going from experience both the Libs and ALP have a network of corporate or other favorites, basically the public servants follow the minister on who the current favorite is.

  37. Re Serco

    There was a stream of shocking stories about Serco, coming out of the UK for years and yet no matter how they stuffed up they kept getting contracts. They must have had a lot of friends in high places, that and or a lot of dirt on people in high places.

    Serco has been running immigration detention facilities in Australia since around 2009. Guess who was in government then.

  38. For those interested in going to the primary source before uncritically accepting everything quoted in The Australian – Bob Brown’s letter:

    https://www.bobbrown.org.au/tarkine_updates_090719

    The transmission lines are planned to cut through wild and scenic Tasmania, including the northeast Tarkine forests and (until local outrage led to a sudden change) the Leven Canyon, en route to Sheffield and then the new export cable beneath Bass Strait. Why not use the more direct, much less environmentally destructive route aligning the Bass Highway? Better still, in the name of private enterprise, why not UPC build its own cable under the Strait from Robbins Island straight to wherever?

    Tasmanians have a right to know much more about the Robbins Island development. It is a huge resource extraction venture which will be lighting up no Tasmanian homes. Beyond the indisputable environmental losses, what is the guaranteed money this giant venture is returning to the state of Tasmania as against UPC’s foreign stakeholders?

  39. The letter makes a poor defense.

    Hobart’s tallest building remains the modest 19-storey Wrest Point Casino tower, just 73 metres high, and many Hobartians want to keep it that way. None of the buildings in Hobart’s CBD is 60 metres tall.

    So spare a thought for Tasmania’s Robbins Island. It is about to get UPC Robbins Island Pty Ltd’s 120 towers, each 160 metres high — more than twice the height of the NAB building in Collins St — with ailerons of 110 metres, which will have their tips spinning to the dizzying apex of 270 metres. There will be 200 such towers if the developer gets the Hodgman Government’s tick of approval — and who would doubt that?

    Mariners will see this hairbrush of tall towers from 50km out to sea and elevated landlubbers will see it, like it or not, from greater distances on land.

    TLDR; “windmills are tall and ugly”.

    Here are a few concerns. Besides the impact on the coastal scenery, wind turbines kill birds. Wedge-tailed eagle and white-bellied sea eagles nest and hunt on the island. Swift parrots and orange-bellied parrots traverse the island on their migrations.

    Multiple species of international migratory, endangered and critically endangered shorebirds use the wetlands for six months of the year: Australian fairy tern, fork-tailed swift, little tern, white-throated needletail, ruddy turnstone, sharp-tailed sandpiper, sanderling, red knot, curlew sandpiper, red-necked stint, great knot, double-banded plover, greater sand plover, lesser sand plover, Latham’s snipe, bar-tailed godwit, eastern curlew, whimbrel, golden plover, grey plover, grey-tailed tattler, common greenshank, terek sandpiper, hooded plover. For which of these species will the wind farm be the thousandth cut?

    TLDR; “windmills kill birds”.

    He may have a valid point about the routing of the transmission lines (I have no way to judge that), but it’s lost among his whinges about aesthetics and unsupported speculation that building a wind farm there will not just kill birds but literally cause entire bird species to go extinct.

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