Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.
• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.
• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.
Nicholas says:
Tuesday, July 9, 2019 at 10:36 am
Very obviously, the Liberals will use recessed conditions in the economy to further their project in labour repression.
They are very well aware they could give the economy a boost by using fiscal measures. But they will not do this. They have chosen labour repression. Or rather, labour repression has chosen the Liberals. This is why they exist.
They will repress working people and they will use every device to accomplish it. They will exploit asylum seekers. They will exploit the environment. They will exploit unions. They will exploit the unemployed and the working poor. They will exploit fiscal ‘rules’.
Nicholas, join Labor.
The pollsters are just treading water seemingly refusing to reveal the barest of details as to how, if at all, raw polling figures departed from the May 18 result or, if they did not, the method by which they were adjusted.
No, this is mostly a new generation of scammers.
lizzie says:
Tuesday, July 9, 2019 at 10:49 am
He is saying that he will do industrial relations reform instead, which he thinks will stimulate the economy.
What he really means, but dare not say, is that repressed wages encourage profits. But it will all fall down around his cotton wool stuffed ears when the economy dives.
Repressed incomes will hurt demand, output, investment, profits, employment and the budget. The Liberals are very well aware of this. But they are also well and truly able to exploit recessed incomes for political purposes. They have just demonstrated that. Their mission is to destroy Labor. They are making strides in that direction, supported as always by the Greens, who harbour the same goal.
The Liberals long for power above all. They will exploit anything and everything to achieve it. A recessed economy is a boon to the Liberals, who will use it effect tax retrenchment (they just did) as well as assaults on social incomes (Labor’s great achievements) and the dissolution of unions (Labor itself). These have been the goals of the Reactionaries since the 1880s. They have not changed.
poroti, nicholas
Howard also had a tremendous amount of help from a booming China.
shellbell says:
Tuesday, July 9, 2019 at 11:02 am
Part of the problem seems to be that they were missing a significant demographic in the middle, so the challenge for them becomes, how can they ensure that they capture this group in their future polling.
Repressed wages certainly helped create an environment where rebates and tax cuts were the only way many people could see an improvement in their livelihoods.
A shepherd doesnt ask its sheep for direction.
Irrigator boss on ABC24 defending “environmental water holders”. Ros Childs asking good questions, but it’s the drought, y’know.
But will it really help the LNP to repress wages and not even be able claim the pointless (in reality) “prize” of a federal government surplus? Their belief is that a surplus is evidence of “good economic management”. If voters are made worse off financially and don’t see the surplus that they’ve been conditioned to associate with prudence, I think that hurts the government. What will be their excuse for not delivering a surplus?
The ATO being flooded by calls for people chasing their $1080.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6260015/ato-hangs-up-amid-flood-of-calls-from-taxpayers-eager-for-bonus/?cs=14350
It reminds me that 1080 is the name of a poison (Sodium fluoroacetate) that is banned in most countries except Australia.
Simon² Katich® says:
Tuesday, July 9, 2019 at 11:16 am
This has all the feeling of the Bolt debate mk II.
Dan Gulberry
The word ‘temendous’ would be an understatement 🙂 Twiggy and Gina should have shrines to China in their offices. Especially Gina. Their big projects would not even have got to the runway let alone taken off without the price boom. They would have remained plain old millionaire or billionaire rather than multi billionaires 🙂
Alpha Zero
Yes, whenever I see ‘1080’ I think “lock your pets up”.
Tim Costello doesn’t see any problems regarding religious persecution in Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/09/tim-costello-christians-need-to-calm-down-and-suck-it-up-over-alleged-persecution
The religious freedom debate (or any other concerning arguments about freedoms with modern right wingers) reminds me of the Frank Herbert passage:
‘When I am weaker then you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles.’
It seems to me that it’s not freedom of speech that is the problem.
The problem seems to be when the original comments are challenged.
Then they have a choice, they can try and justify their original comment, or they can scream, you’re repressing my freedom of speech.
I shall risk our Lord god’s rath with a sub judice comment on this ongoing court case:
https://.smh.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/kevin-spacey-sexual-assault-case-could-be-dismissed-judge-says-20190709-p525fz.html
Does Spacey still have his mobile phone handset? If so, even deleted text messages are fairly easily recovered using ‘cellbrite’ technology.
Even without either handsets call charge records and reverse call charge records are able to establish the fact that text messages were sent and received between subscribers. Depending on the telco – sometimes the content of text messages can be recovered by these records. …
lizzie @ #110 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 11:17 am
Didn’t the infractions occur before the drought took hold, when Barnaby Joyce was Water Minister?
poroti @ #98 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 10:54 am
And Josh Frydenburg is proposing a whole new round of forcing States to sell their Public Assets in order to get $ for Infrastructure projects.
Josh is just Joe with a winning smile.
There is a beautiful tree currently being chopped down across road from me. I can see why it is being done. It has most definitely outgrown the space and was becoming a hazard. Still I am sad that it is going. It always made me happy when I looked at it.
lizzie @ #96 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 10:49 am
There are more employees than bosses. Employees spend money in the economy, bosses buy a bigger boat. So IR ‘reform’ will achieve nothing. Except for fatter profits.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-to-dump-negative-gearing-franking-credits-policy-albo/news-story/04c8fbf32a78f9783a8736b0bace0395
Albanese moving swiftly to re-calibrate the Lib lite policy platform.
I think that L/NP’s “surplus” fetish is mainly about making cuts to stuff they don’t want to spend money on – social welfare, health, Medicare, public education, infrastructure that isn’t profitable for donors, etc.
Firstly, convince the punters that a surplus is necessary for sound management, then use it to justify austerity when the time is right (i.e. a long way out from the next election).
Regarding negative gearing, refunding franking credits to people who don’t pay tax, the CGT discount and rorts like novated leases, Labor shouldn’t take reform to the next election. It should just do it once in office.
Steve777 @ #126 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 12:05 pm
After >1 election victory.
Steve777 @ #124 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 12:02 pm
Lib lite with much the same philosophy…
Only the Greens now who don’t conform to neo-lib philosophy.
Steve777 @ #125 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 12:05 pm
Wishful thinking… but seems there’s bipartisan support for these unaffordable ‘gifts’..
Rex Douglas
Geez you talk a lot of crapola
Getting hot in Alaska..
“The US state of Alaska, part of which lies inside the Arctic Circle, sweltered under a heatwave, with record temperatures recorded in several areas, including its largest city. The temperature rivaled temperatures in Miami
Temperatures reached 90 Fahrenheit (F) (32.2C) in Anchorage on Thursday, shattering the city’s all-time record-high temperature by 5 degrees. The previous record of 85F was set in 1969. It also shattered the daily record of 77 degrees for the Fourth of July, which had stood since 1999. Records in Anchorage date back to 1952.
Three cities in Alaska experienced record high temperatures on July 4. More than 100 active fires throughout the state of Alaska were reported.
https://countercurrents.org/2019/07/heat-hit-alaska-baked-temperature-touched-record-mark
“https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-to-dump-negative-gearing-franking-credits-policy-albo/news-story/04c8fbf32a78f9783a8736b0bace0395
Albanese moving swiftly to re-calibrate the Lib lite policy platform.”
This is a political mistake, because people will rightly assume that Labor will bring these policies back if they win government (because Labor has been so invested in them over the past 3 years): this will actually amplify the scare campaign – I suspect that punters (especially those whose vote Labor is chasing and who voted against labor because of some part or other of the 2019 scare campaign) will NOT be as accepting of Albo’s inevitable “never ever” promise as they were of Howard’s “never ever” GST pledge in 1996 (especially given how THAT panned out).
Albo would have been much better off announcing a calibration of both policies now in a way that takes the political sting out of them and is actually a credible position going forward.
In my view the negative gearing changes are easier to defend politically, so I’d suggest a simple modification to the existing policy: (in addition to grandfathering the changes) allow individuals/couples the opportunity to negative gear ONE established investment house, with any further investment properties having to be new builds to qualify for the negative gearing concession.
The necessary changes ti the franking credit cash back policy would be to grandfather the changes – no franking credit cashbacks for shares purchased after a certain date (say 1 July 2022); and for those retirees with existing share portfolios as at 1.7.22 only the first $20,000 of surplus franking credits can be claimed as a cashback.
This seems moot now. Albo has made his call.
Victoria @ #130 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 12:12 pm
+1
A_E
I agree.
Also, when empty houses are apparently adding to homelessness, neg. gearing must surely be an urgent reform.
To be fair, we’re in the period where Labor traditionally declares that every policy they took to the last election is now off the table. In theory, this is because everything is being reviewed, and some of the policies, after being scrutinised, will be re endorsed.
However, there’s usually a couple of exceptions to this rule – for example, opposing the sale of Telstra was always kept.
And certainly, I think that given we’ve had the pain, we should retain both the franking credits and negative gearing policies, move on from explaining them and focus on the benefits.
I will be extremely p*ssed if that doesn’t happen.
(As an aside, is Albo treating Labor’s infrastructure package the same way? I assume so, because with neg gearing/franking credits off the table, they are unfunded, surely?).
C@t
Of course, but blaming the drought is so useful.
Just 2 observations
1. I wouldn’t believe everything printed in the SmearStralian, especially if it pertains to what Albo or Labor may or may not be doing.
2. Last week I actually bumped into Barnaby Joyce (walked past him actually). He looked fit and clear eyed, face normal colour. It was morning.
It was a natural progression…. from Minister for Water.
Morrison has chosen just the right person in Howarth, obviously.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jul/09/community-housing-minister-luke-howarth-wants-a-positive-spin-on-homelessness?CMP=share_btn_tw
I think it will be very interesting to see if labor retains the “ budget levy “ as a tax policy going forward given the flavour of the month appears to be tax reduction/ cuts are good for the economy.
I still think it was a mistake for labor to leave open the option of reversing trance three at some point in the never never. They are being slapped around anyway by all the usual suspects so after arriving at their final position to wave the full package through there would have been no extra pain short term. Pass the lot, state clearly no reversal of stage three and move on. Rightly or not the liberals will hit labor with the “ increased taxes on way under labor “ if labor takes this option to the next election. As we have seen these campaigns have a way of taking hold and sucking air out of any other message.
http://theconversation.com/the-murray-darling-basin-scandal-economists-have-seen-it-coming-for-decades-119989?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
It appears Donald is still looking for his first foreign policy win. His latest effort..
I’m sure the Queen will be gratified to know that she impressed Trump. She’s reached the pinnacle now. ROFL
zoomster says:
Tuesday, July 9, 2019 at 12:29 pm
And certainly, I think that given we’ve had the pain, we should retain both the franking credits and negative gearing policies, move on from explaining them and focus on the benefits.
______________________________
And keeping the Capital Gains Tax policy as well? Sounds like a plan…….for losing 4 elections in a row!
“Memories of Aotearoa”? Isn’t that out of place?
If the equivalent job paid the same amount in Aotearoa I’d move there in no time flat.
Everyone adopting their usual positions and ignoring the scientists. What would they know?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/09/scientists-renew-calls-for-inquiry-into-murray-darling-basin-plan?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1562640829
@nath
Labor’s changes to their negative gearing and franking dividends policies, I predict will be only the start of a massive review of policies, in order to make the party more electable to voters in outer suburban and provincial electorates. At the very least the marketing as opposed to the substance of a great bulk of policies will be changed.
lizzie @ #141 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 12:54 pm
I’m thinking he’s another Happy Clapper:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luke_Howarth