We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
Just popped in to see how things are going.
Really, since it’s clear everyone here expects Labor to spend at least another six years in the wilderness is there any point posting or lurking here for the foreseeable future….
Thinking of you BK – enjoy dinner
Tricot, thanks for your response.
None at all Mundo off you go……
What Labor can’t afford to do in this term is to put dopes like Richard Marles and Stephen Jones out in front of the cameras. Major vote repellents for Labor.
Well, no ‘Insiders’ for me this weekend, because:
1. Annabel Crabb
2. Simon Birmingham
Mundo:
[‘Just popped in to see how things are going.’]
I very much doubt that you: ‘Just popped in…’
Nicholas says:
Friday, June 28, 2019 at 6:30 pm
The banks are essentially public utilities that are run as public-private partnerships. They have cultivated a mythology of being entirely private and highly innovative and entrepreneurial. But in essence they are there to help the federal government to run the payments system. Unfortunately, through poor regulation, they have been permitted to do non-bank activities such as keep assets off their balance sheets, trade via subsidiaries or affiliates, trade in derivatives, and securitize mortgages.
Ideally a bank should be permitted to do two things only:
1. Help the federal government to run the payments system.
2. Assess the creditworthiness of prospective borrowers, issue loans to creditworthy borrowers, and hold those loans on their balance sheets until they are paid off or written off.
The federal government will never let the banks collapse. It might nationalise the banks and take the opportunity to clean them up.
———————–
Nicholas, you need new reading material
1. Banks are not run like a public-private partnerships, they don’t pretend to be private as they are listed on an exchange for anyone to buy their shares
2. Something being off-balance sheet may well be justified
3. Derivatives are used for a number of reasons from hedging to trading
4. Securitised mortgages are fine as long as they are not misrepresented as they were before the GFC
5. The RBA runs the payment system
6. The banks already assess the credit worthiness of potential borrowers and mortgages are record on the balance sheet
7. In the case of a large scale banking crash, the Australian Government would not save all four banks, all they would look to do is protect people from seeing their wages, pensions, savings or small deposits from disappearing
Democrats need to make the election a referendum on Trump. Whoever wins the nomination, I hope s/he can at least do that.
Thanks Kate, I’ll stay. And yes Mavis I just popped in because the last time I lurked, about three days ago it was boring as bat shit…..
Tristo says:
Friday, June 28, 2019 at 3:12 pm
So long as Labor opposes the bank bailout which I am predicting will happen in the next couple of years or so. Then Labor will win in a stunning landslide in the 2022, because a lot of people will be very angry! over the collapse in the value of their houses and superannuation balances. Also the message I see of Labor arguing for ‘growing the economic pie bigger’ will be attractive to people in amidst of an economic depression with a unemployment rate of 20% or higher.
—————————
Not sure what you are basing your repeated forecast is but a lot would need to happen for what essentially would be a depression for your prediction to come true and I don’t see anything to support your theory. A recession is possible but a full blown depression is less likely because they tend to happen at the end of excessive booms and its been a while since the Australian economy has been in a boom like state. Banks wont be bailed out but what Rudd did was the right thing to do at the time, the last thing we want is a run on the banks because that could cause a depression so its best the government offers to ensure people that their wages, pensions and small amounts of savings are safe.
Confessions:
The Democratic candidates numerically are a joke. In my view, only ole uncle Joe can match the dolt; but he’s older than Methuselah.
Mavis Davis @ #789 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 7:24 pm
Yes. Sadly. I mean, it hasn’t been denied as yet. Plus the modus operandi and various ‘tells’ suggest as much.
Before anyone else starts waxing lyrical on Bank failures, please cast your mind back to what Victoria and South Australia experienced in the early 1990’s following the failure of their extremely poorly run ‘state owned’ Banks.
Mavis Davis:
I am listening to this podcast of Never Trump Republicans Rick Wilson and Charlie Sykes reviewing the debate, and am becoming increasingly despondent.
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/2020-circus-begins
I just hope it’s a case of early days. But Dems do have a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Mundo:
[… I just popped in because the last time I lurked, about three days ago it was boring as bat shit…’]
And how are you going to change said perception? I’ve certainly not witnessed much to the contrary on your part.
Joe Biden is about 3 and a half years older than Donald Trump. He would be 78 years 2 months old by the inauguration date (January 2021). Donald Trump would be 74 years 7 months.
I don’t see Biden as electable, he might have missed his best chance in 2016 with Clinton or someone else running this time.
No they need to make it a real referendum on the future of America, like Shorten could have made the last election a serious clear choice, this progressive soft sell tinkering around the edges too scared to believe in anything, always focused on the thin centre of potential voters while just giving their base a finger deserves to lose to morons and crooks like Morrison and Trump. Have a vision, have some f*cking courage and make a real play. You may lose, but when you do you’ll have your self pride.
FWIW Albo seems to be more sacred KK is running to the right of the Dutton, and i didn’t think that was possible and there you can smell their cowardice from 1000 km. That is never going to win an election in a time where people are desparate for strong leaders. So desperate they are choosing Putins, Boris’, Trumps and Morrison’s over weak corporatist nothings.
Harris / Warren … double down on women, double down on reform.
Harris/Warren could work, one focus on selling policy, the other focus on attacking Trump.
Mundo thinks Kate has no idea that Mundo has form here. One of the reasons the site has gone to shite is that some of the best posters have gone off the boil…..like Mundo
Mavis Davis @ #815 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 8:20 pm
Yeah. He thinks the fact that the sun shines out of his…posts, is enough. When all they are is routine snark.
C@t must be over 60 posts for the day. Impressive. Any idea what the record is? I’m guessing C@t’s gone over a 100 a few times for sure.
Odds Democrats:
Harris 3.75
Biden 4.25
Warren 5.00
Sanders 7.00
Buttigieg 7.50
Others waay out.
No more self-indulgent drivel please. Either make a point about politics, be inoffensive, or keep your cursor away from the “post comment” button. Negative reflections on other commenters, individually or in aggregate, will henceforth be chopped.
Confessions @ #814 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 8:17 pm
I’m just listening to it. Thanks, ‘fess. 🙂
The one comment I would make is that Rick Wilson said that Barack Obama ‘scanned’ Republican Lite, no matter how hard Repug professionals like him tried to make him the boogie man. It’s for that reason that I think the Democrats need another candidate like him to challenge Trump. Safe. Solid. Reliable. Male. Smeone who again appeals to Suburban and Provincial Republican Women, as well as the traditional Democratic base.
Maybe one of the more anonymous candidates?
Tried to exchange Australian currency at several banks today for ‘gold’ coins. Most required that I purchase an account and others declared that that are ‘non’ cash branches.
Finally managed to exchange my tonnes of ‘silver’ for a few grams of fools’ gold at an NAB branch housed in one of the few buildings in Brisbane completed before 1940. Actually it’s probably just an old facade.
In any case their community service (to this non-customer but fellow traveler in the AUD delusion) was excellent and were I inclined to use financial services they’re currently my frontrunner.
Mundo:
Get off the stuff, lest it may affect your cognition.
Mexicanbeemer @ #817 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 8:26 pm
My son has shown me the Alt Right memes that are already going around about Joe Biden. They are not pretty. But they are effective. So, he’s got no hope.
C@t:
He says Biden needs to be mentioning Obama 50 squillion times each debate. And I loved the pitch he gave for Biden on health care and pushing back on Bernie/Warren etc. I won’t spoil it for you 🙂
BK
Goodness me!
Sounds like you are in good hands. All the best.
Type of thing.
Holden Hillbilly @ #821 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 6:43 pm
Wow where are you getting that from?
Confessions @ #829 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 8:49 pm
I have heard as much as the Warren plan to take everyone’s Private Health Insurance away would not be very popular out in suburbia, and that Sanders’ plan to eliminate Student Debt would not go down well with people that have paid their way through college or paid off their loans themselves, all so more middle class kids could get free tuition! Good one, Bernie! Make the rich richer! 😆
Trump bringing the lulz, jokes to Putin…don’t meddle in the election! How very meta of you, Donald. 😐
Just on the earlier topic of bank bailouts, hopefully nothing like that should be required, but if a major bank actually was on the verge of collapse, it would be a disaster. The Federal Government would need to bail it out. As an earlier poster said, the wages, savings and super of ordinary people, and thousands of direct jobs and indirectly many more, would be at stake.
But the process should not involve any handouts to the banks. The board, the CEO and his/her direct reports should all be sacked, have their passports confiscated and all should be investigated. Trusted technocrats should be put in their place. The bank shares are presumably worth nothing, so there’s nothing to pay to shareholders.
In due course, the Govetnment could sell the bank off, or better still keep it and reestablish the Commonwealth Bank as of old.
C@t:
The Bernie Sanders plan for student debt was outed from the get go as simply transferring the debt to future generations. Personally, while I’m appalled at the state of America’s higher ed services (aped by Australia btw), I don’t think Sanders’ plan is sustainable or even feasible.
Steve777
I would add one thing, restrict foreclosures, it was the one thing Obama didn’t do and it created a lot of the anger towards the bailouts because you had the banks being bailed but the home owners were still be closed down.
“Well, no ‘Insiders’ for me this weekend, because:
1. Annabel Crabb
2. Simon Birmingham”
agree. is an upper class/private school south australian thing that makes them boorish, self-satisified prigs/pains in the arse? Pyne and Downer too.
Hi All from Fontainebleau,
BK, stay well. Good luck with staving off the boredom. I tend to immerse myself in “whodunnits “. Or post a lot on Pollbludger.
Well, it is really hot here – 36 to 37 degrees C. And, although I am used to this from Sydney, the infrastructure here is just not set up for it. It is also hot at night, and I am having trouble sleeping. In Montpellier today the top will be 44 C. South west France, right on the Mediterranean. Budapest had its hottest day ever on Wednesday. I am having to change my working hours. I find I cannot sleep before around 3 in the morning.
Lizzie and C@t, thanks so much for your work. I liked the UK cartoons from he UK yesterday implying that Cartoonists are the canaries in the coalmine – I think they pick up public sentiment quickly, but also the response to cartoons can be used to calibrate editorial policy – and there is always the “it was only a joke / satire” defence.
I am now in a household with a TV, which is often on. Luc kily it is often on the FIFA Woman’s world cup – some fantastic football – and the ICC Cricket world cup – some great games also. Although the Windies, my favourite team, are not doing so well.
On the other hand, I cannot distinguish UK and US news and interview programs from their Australian counterparts.
I saw Boris Johnson last night in his leadership pitch – he just lies, and insists that the EU will have to negotiate, and we just need to forget about the Irish backstop until after the 31st Oct. He basically says that it is obvious to him that the EU will *HAVE* to negotiate, and the UK will get everything it wants.
It reminds my of Abbot’s 2010 – 2013 interviews and press conferences, which were basically “Give me the job or I will destroy the joint”.
D&M:
I’ve enjoyed the travails of your travels in recent weeks.
Although it sounds unbearably hot where you are now. We’ve had the polar opposite here: wind, rain, hail, and snow on the higher peaks.
And Wolf Blitzer interviewed Jared Kushner about the Middle East conference which neither Israel or Palestine attended.
Kushner did the “Wall of sound” stuff, with the same facial expression as trump – chin slightly tilted forward, confident smirk in place – and answered each question with the same verbal diarrhoea.
Even the important question “Do you support a “two-state solution” (put 3 times) was answered with:
* Govt treaties mean nothing.
* Only business is important, and only business can provide the solution.
* All we want for the people of Palestine and all other players is safety and prosperity.
* All the Arabic leaders he has spoken to are completely on board with Trump’s agenda.
I may be wrong, but I have watched and enjoyed Wolf Blitzer’s interviews for many years, and I got the impression that 1) He did not feel able to interrupt Kushner’s spiel, and 2) He would have loved to punch the “smug little preppie brat *- my words) on the nose.
* Hope this does not violate House policy William.
I can alternatively go with 2) He did not feel kindly disposed to Kushner, and seemed to feel that Kushner had give a fact-free interview).
Thanks Confessions – Australia seems to be freezing. I am not missing that bit at all!
Also, housesitting cats for three weeks while I catch up on my peer-reviewed outputs – the plan anyway. It will get more bearable from, Sunday onwards. My friends are driving around Scotland for two weeks (friend from Paisley originally). They are going all the way north, and to a large selection of islands, including Skye and the Shetlands. The maximum there will be an average of 10 – 20 C, lover in the north of course.
Howdy D&M…glad to see you’re still bludging from afar:)
Hi Briefy,
Hi to you also 🙂
BK, Who gave you permission to get sick!
If you’re bored try compiling a list of Morrison’s lies. Scratch that , your blood pressure will go through the roof. Rest up BK and get well soon.
All the best to you, BK – sounds like no fun at all, hope you are back to normal ASAP.
And if a lurker may presume – take heart, Bludgers, keep plugging away, and know that there’s an awful lot of us so-called “quiet ones” out here who are no friend nor fan of the Morrison claque.
It is odd to read self-proclaimed progressives invoke conservative fake talking points to decry universal federally funded non-means tested social programs.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers!
I will definitely be going home this morning. And Puff, in the absence of politics, my blood pressure has been running around an uncharacteristically low 115/68.
Standing by for the return of parliament next week, wondering who will display excessive hubris.