We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
Good Morning BK! You take care now! Maybe even take Sunday off as well and come back raring to go on Monday. But it’s up to you. 🙂
Confessions @ #837 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 9:21 pm
It was a dramatic announcement that fired up the Bernie Bros. Who just happen to be those White, Middle Class Liberal Arts College attending kids and their parents, in the main. 😉
Herewith a few cartoons for your morning pleasure (there, does that not sound ‘provincial’ enough for you all? 😉 ) :
Michael Leunig isn’t happy with inadequate, powerful men’s love of war:
Andrew Dyson on Trump’s world-beating ignorance:
Oops! Pressed the ‘Submit’ button too soon. 😳
There will be more.
BK @ #850 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 5:45 am
Do you ever sleep BK? Good to see you’ll be back on your feet and hoping any major problems are behind you
“Harris/Warren could work, one focus on selling policy, the other focus on attacking Trump.”
______________
Bula from Nadi Airport. Get well soon BK!
No it would not likely work. Such a ticket would not bring out the white urban working class male vote in the key northern rust belt states that went missing in 2016. It would compound Hillary’s problem. Warren is far too polarising.
I really think the key is to get a ticket that appeals to the key states that decide the electoral college vote and not just toss up candidates from states and regions that are a solid lock for the Democrats: this would further alienate those lost voters.
The key states to win back are:
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa
Florida
There are also other outliers like Arizona, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana.
If the Dems hold the states won by Hilary in 2016 and pick up just two of the larger states from the above list, they win the Whitehouse.
With that in mind the key and only question to ask is what candidates are most likely to appeal to voters in those states? A few months ago I ruminated that a Klobuchar (heartland America) and Sherrod Brown (rust belt) would be a perfectly good ticket to lock down the key states. Since then Amy’s campaign hasn’t gone anywhere. So I think a charismatic, smart black-ethnic woman and a white left wing popular male from the heart of the rust belt would be the most formidable ticket the Democrats could offer. I reckon Kamala could get back a lot of Obama voters and Brown would get out the democrat vote in the rust belt like no other.
Contrary to what what Rex says, getting under Trump’s skin doesn’t matter. In fact any engagement is pretty irrelevant: it’s a race to get out the parties respective base in the states that matter. While a reaction against Trump is part of that, it’s not enough by itself.
Good morning.
(Apologies for not converting to Outline as BK does.)
Still dogged by questions about his rise to the Liberal leadership, Scott Morrison is keeping his allies close, and rewarding those who voted for him in the spill.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/06/29/scott-morrisons-inner-circle/15617304008359?cb=1561753341
We can pretend the PM has the ability to suppress corrosive ambition in his team. But that would be fantasy
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/29/election-scott-morrison-authority-colleagues-could-take-it-away
What keeps Peter Dutton so busy that he needs meditation against stress? He doesn’t even respond to letters requesting transfers on medical grounds.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/06/29/no-truth-behind-duttons-medivac-rhetoric/15617304008360
A recent High Court ruling has led to questions about how the law should define parenthood.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2019/06/29/sperm-donation-and-parenthood/15617304008362
Unless the parliament accedes to its demands for income tax cuts for the wealthy, it will deny the economy the medication it needs in order to return to good health. In essence, it is saying “pay up, or the economy gets it”.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/06/29/tax-cuts-and-economic-stimulus/15617304008356
After Labor’s unexpected election loss, our renewal may be found in an unlikely spot. Andrew Leigh
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/06/29/social-liberalism-fits-labor/15617304008366
This debate is about the viciousness with which a segment of society will define itself as morally superior to another.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/editorial/2019/06/29/maybe-god-didnt-make-your-penis/15617304008367
The countries still signed up to the agreement held urgent talks with Iranian officials on Friday in Vienna in the hope of persuading Tehran to hold off.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/06/29/angry-iran-on-the-verge-of-ramping-up-nuclear-program/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020190629
The would-be prime minister’s racist vulgarity is childish – and reveals the nostalgia for empire that underpinned Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/28/calling-french-turds-boris-johnson-prime-minister-empire
Environmentally aware white collar professionals are the obvious consumers of EV disruptor Tesla’s Model 3 sedan, which launches in Australia next month.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/06/28/tesla-electric-car-australia/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020190629
The environment minister has added more plants and animals to Australia’s national list of threatened species, including woodlands that had been eligible for protection for years.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/28/sussan-ley-grants-woodlands-protection-after-years-of-delay-by-predecessors
Labor is set stir up anger among local members by denying them the chance to vote on the replacement for ex-minister Philip Dalidakis and instead parachute in a lawyer backed by a powerful union.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-devalues-memberships-fury-over-labor-s-plan-to-drop-in-a-shoppie-20190628-p522bp.html
The G20 summit in Osaka is a humbling moment for the leaders of the world’s biggest economies as they wait for just two of their club to make the biggest decisions.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/when-the-world-economy-needs-progress-the-g20-summit-is-just-a-retreat-20190628-p522b8.html
Ever the opportunist, Putin takes what’s on offer, he glides, he smirks. And he watches with glee as we huff and puff at his provocations
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/28/putin-war-machine-russian-atrocities
A full investigation “would show that Trump didn’t actually win the election in 2016”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/28/jimmy-carter-trump-illegitimate-president-russia
Declaring he would not “sit there and wait” for the two economic powers to stop increasing tariffs on each other, Mr Morrison spoke of sealing an Asian trade agreement that excludes the US.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-ramps-up-regional-trade-deal-after-g20-warning-on-economy-20190628-p522ec.html
The biggest change to Victoria’s correction framework in more than 30 years, transforming the system into one assessed not just on the security of prisons but also the welfare of prisoners.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/prisons-to-focus-on-rehabilitation-not-recidivism-minister-20190628-p522bh.html
Medical experts have warned that the flu shot is not foolproof and urged people to take extra steps to protect themselves after a Victorian man died from influenza despite being vaccinated.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/like-wearing-a-seatbelt-experts-say-flu-vaccine-is-not-foolproof-20190628-p5226r.html
In a significant breakthrough that could change the way Parkinson’s disease is treated, scientists have discovered how to diagnose the disease up to 20 years before symptoms appear.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2019/06/28/how-parkinsons-can-predicted/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020190629
The minister said the new owners would revitalise the existing building and deliver 89 apartments, as well as retail and commercial spaces.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/28/sydneys-sirius-building-to-be-refurbished-after-being-sold-for-150m
And here are the rest of the cartoons to brighten up your morning:
Matt Golding on the news that a transmission came from a suburb far, far away:
I’m guessing this is Simon Letch’s comment on the Australia-England cricket match:
Brilliant Matt Golding on what awaits Trump when he goes to Melbourne:
Alan Moir. No need to explain:
Matt Golding and confused 21st century kids:
Matt Davidson on the only positive outcome of Global Warming:
Ugh! John Shakespeare and the Dags:
Joe Benke. Who will win?
John Shakespeare and a really good head injury motto:
Simon Letch and dinner parties:
Robin Cowcher. If someone knows the background to this I’d be interested to know:
From overseas now, Sven Veitdal comments on America’s EPA:
From The Economist, it’s Kushner the Magnificent!
Ann Telnaes of The Washington Post and the shine coming off Bernie Sanders:
This is from The Guardian in the UK but has a universal theme:
Martin Rowson in The Guardian UK:
From The Observer it’s the Battle of the Brexits:
And, finally, it’s a whimsical comment on modern life by Modern Toss:
Enjoy!
Oh dear. Sorry about the last 3 cartoons. Looks like they won’t translate onto the page. Anyway, if you are interested, here’s the links for them:
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/picture/2019/jun/24/modern-toss
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-v-jeremy-hunt-battle-of-the-brexits-cartoon
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2019/jun/24/martin-rowson-on-boris-johnsons-push-to-become-prime-minister-cartoon
If I figure out how to get them up here I will do it.
Good morning all.
Thanks Lizzie for your effort this morning with the News Roundup.
and
Thanks C@tmomma for the Cartoons. Below are the ones referenced by you (from The Guardian.)
Back to bed with a fresh mug of ☕ (coffee) and a good book.
Thanks lizzie and C@t. Today’s David Rowe:
Thank you, Kay Jay! You are a whizz with the tech stuff. It’s funny but those cartoons started with https and ended with .jpg as per usual but they came up blank. Even when I added a gratuitous #image.jpg So I had run out of ideas. Except to say that maybe I should have Saved them then gone to imgur or something like it. Is that what you did?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/28/france-on-red-alert-as-heatwave-forecast-to-reach-record-45c
We are fucked
briefly
Ah, but France is so far away from us that anything that happens to their climate is irrelevant. Just ask Canavan. Or Abbott. He knows stuff.
lizzie…. the time is very rapidly approaching when fossil fuels will be banned altogether. The transition to renewables is happening but it really needs to be accelerated. The penalties/prices/costs associated with emissions will soar. The capacity of the atmosphere to continue to absorb CO2 without causing serious economic harm is really very limited.
Countries with net zero emissions or net negative emissions will be in a position to refuse to trade with net positive emitters….and they will. Having net negative emissions will become a huge economic advantage. We really need to get on board with this…but seem to be institutionally incapable of it.
Brigitte Macron looks like she’d rather be anywhere else.
Whereas Jenny Morrison couldn’t wait to meet Trump.
briefly
I try not to despair, but the fools who run the country are hard to tolerate and I cannot forgive them for their pig ignorance (with apologies to pigs, who are far more intelligent).
Edit: They don’t shit in their own beds.
briefly @ #863 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:12 am
You may as well join the Liberals then with such a defeatist attitude.
I’m certainly going to spend the next 3 years fighting to get a government in power that will do something about Climate Change.
Maybe you should read Andrew Leigh’s article in The Saturday Paper. He’s certainly not giving up. He’s strategising ways to get to a point where Labor has a path into power. It’s the adult response to the situation Labor finds itself in. Labor needs to find a few tweaks that will leverage more votes in winnable seats. We can do it. You just have to believe.
Morning all
BK
Glad to hear you are okay to go home!
Thanks Lizsie, c@t, KJ, fess for today’s round up!
Confessions @ #867 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:29 am
She even brought her puppies out to meet him. 😐
C@t
Very lopsided ones at that.
JBishop had the monopoly on wearing her clothes with precision. Jenny M not so much
Fess
In that photo of Trump and the Morrisons, I note that Morrison has allowed (encouraged?) his wife to show more decolletage than usual (to put it delicately). That has to be a deliberate ploy to attract the Yellow Monster.
Edit: remember, when it comes to ambition, Morrison will throw everything in.
C@t
Yeah, well…
I should add. Pictures can capture things that may not be as they seem. But Trump and Jenny M exchanging smiles, is really creepy.
Victoria @ #872 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:35 am
I wonder if nath will pipe up and say that it looks like Morrison is ‘pi**ing’ his wife out for Trump? 😐
C@t
Well if the shoe fits………
Who are we to argue!
Mrs Morrison reminds me so much of Mrs Pence.
C@t
Yep. And that ain’t a compliment
Victoria @ #877 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:39 am
According to David Rowe, Scott got in first. 😆
Australia would be absolutely cray cray to follow Trump and his cronies into a phony war with Iran.
Trump isnt trusted by his own country. Why would we entertain anything he says. It is madness
it isn’t a matter of a few tweek, a few tweeks will deliver another Porter tattoo, not Labor govt
What Trump has said about G20 leaders. Scotty appears to be a favourite.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/what-trump-said-about-g-20-leaders/?utm_term=.b132949ef16b
Victoria:
Did you catch the podcast with Charlie Sykes and Rick Wilson?
Confessions @ #884 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:42 am
File that under ‘Birds of a Feather’. 😐
Fess
I haven’t as yet.
WeWantPaul @ #883 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:42 am
Being big and bold just scared the horses this time. Anyway, there is a shift going on in the electorate. Labor are near the centre of that action and only need to speak to more of the people that will probably be disgusted with the Conservative, no longer Liberal, government of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton. Those people exist in the regions too, by the way. And the Provincial Cities. Labor can craft a plurality out of that. And the moderate Christians. Leave the Fundies to the Conservatives.
You just have to believe. 🙂
Anyhoo, off to the Op Shop to connect with the other ‘Provincials’. 😉
C@t
Enjoy the day!
It’s remiss of Mrs. Morrison not to engage with Mrs. Erdoğan. Then again, Trump’s such a sexy old man.
C@tmomma @ #861 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:12 am
Second attempt at a reply – first was from my phone and not being logged on the text disappeared into —- ❓
I took each of your items and opened them in Internet Explorere and then right clicked on each item in turn
then
pasted each one with the addition of #image.jpg
Others more au fait with stuff will probably have a simpler method. I just use the above method because I’m used to it and lazy as well. 😇
Lizzie, Catmomma & Kay Jay Thanks for deputizing for BK today
BK hope you are out of hospital now
I thought GG would pop up by now. It’s nearly July
Vic:
Grimace is also still absent, as is rossmcg.
Fess
My memory maybe faulty as usual but I thought they had made some comments here and there.
Vic:
Perhaps. Just not when I’ve been around.
Donald Trump is a world leader we need to engage with, like Ji Xinping and Vladimir Putin. Our dealings with them should be polite and business-like, even though no one of these three leaders is a good man. They are all nasty authoritarians, although at least it appears that two of them are rational. Trump is of dubious ability and stability and is utterly unsuited to any high office. While we respect the American, Chinese and Russian people, we don’t have to like or admire their leaders and we shouldn’t be sucking up to them.
I am disturbed at the apparent enthusiasm and admiration our that our Prime Minister and other Ministers have for Donald Trump. When Trump does something stupid on the international stage Morrison will have Australia stand tall with the USA which is probably the worst thing we can do.
C@t…. I have not given up. But we are fucked. Nearly everything is stacked against us. Success is highly unlikely. I think we owe it to ourselves to fight anyway but we have to be very cold-eyed about this. The Liberals and the Right generally are very very good at winning.
The Cinderella story is fake news. We will not be rescued from misery and exploitation by a ‘handsome prince’….by a sweet, romantic belief in a happy ending. We are in very serious trouble and there’s no obvious way out.
Good to see you are home BK. And there is some nice new bitumen and kerbing in town for your return. And pram ramps!