We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
“Good enough for the vote to translate into 58% 2PP in Queensland so he could then win 21/30 of their seats. ”
Yes. Yes. Got that memo.
However. It seems to me that the LNP’s position is particularly brittle, win or not: wholly dependent on the preferences of ON and UAP.
I know the same point can and must be made about Labor, especially as it tracks below 35%. However, preferences from the Greens seems to be far more reliable for Labor than preferences from UAP and ON are for the coalition.
Will UAP or ON even be a thing next election? Will the coalition be able to benefit from the protest vote being recycled by these parties to it to the same extent as it did in May? I’m not sure the historical precedent for that proposition is anywhere near established as the history of 4 out of 5 Greens voters preferencing Labor is.
I reckon it comes down to Australians answering the question of just how good ScoMo is. The actual reality is that this moribund, corrupt omnishambles of a government face real headwinds. Some of its own making. Others due to externalities outside its ability to influence. There is a very good chance that the answer in 2022 will be ‘not good’.
Peter van Onselen
Sounds like his church would be one of the fans of ‘Conversion Therapy’.
I know the same point can and must be made about Labor, especially as it tracks below 35%. However, preferences from the Greens seems to be far more reliable for Labor than preferences from UAP and ON are for the coalition.
90% of the UAP preference flow went to the Coalition in Queensland. That’s MORE than The Greens preferences flow to Labor. Not to mention the PHON preferences. That’s 2 parties cf one who directs preferences to Labor. They will reliably go to the LNP next election if the svengalis at the head of those parties tell their people to do it again.
Will UAP or ON even be a thing next election? Will the coalition be able to benefit from the protest vote being recycled by these parties to it to the same extent as it did in May?
There’s no reason to think that either the UAP or PHON will go away before the next election. 70 is the new 50 in politics and Pauline Hanson is nowhere near that even. Also Pauline’s brain, James Ashby is still a young man and there are plenty of young charismatic RW women coming to prominence in Australia that he can replace PH with when the time is right. In order to spread their poison and give old men the hots. Clive Palmer certainly found it easy to dig a few up. And I don’t think he’s going anywhere fast either. He’s perfected his tricks for a gullible electorate and he has more money to make with a complicit Coalition government.
I think Labor just needs to acknowledge this and get on with finding a way to get THEIR act together to beat the Coalition, Palmer, Hanson News Corp and the ABC.
poroti @ #552 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 6:22 am
Yep. I wonder if he suggested it to Alan Jones after the interview? 😉
The article sort of misses a few points.
1) the third trench is after the next election.
2) If you want to balance the budget and have tax cuts then ….
3) The next election is three years away, put pressure on the opposition, get real.
Who cares what nonsense the Liberals and the Greens come up with.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/budget-office-modelling-reveals-beneficiaries-of-coalition-s-tax-cuts-20190627-p521v5.html
C@tmomma says:
Friday, June 28, 2019 at 6:33 am
…
I think Labor just needs to acknowledge this and get on with finding a way to get THEIR act together to beat the Coalition, Palmer, Hanson News Corp and the ABC.
..
You missed the Greens; the little green pony.
Oh, I just realised that BK won’t be doing the Dawn Patrol today. So I might have a scout around for some cartoons while lizzie looks for articles. 🙂
frednk @ #557 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 6:51 am
And nath. The Blue Pony with a Green coat on.
Good morning.
Confidential analysis by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office challenges Labor’s pre-election claims the third stage would only benefit the “top end of town”.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/budget-office-modelling-reveals-beneficiaries-of-coalition-s-tax-cuts-20190627-p521v5.html
President Trump says he was the only one not surprised by PM Morrison’s win. Well, of course.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/he-didn-t-surprise-me-trump-lavishes-praise-on-morrison-over-pm-s-election-win-20190627-p521ti.html
Anti-violence campaigner Rosie Batty has welcomed CFMMEU Victorian secretary John Setka’s promise to help raise awareness about family violence and sympathised with his wife Emma Walters’ decision to stand by her man.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/rosie-batty-understands-why-emma-walters-is-standing-by-john-setka-20190627-p521y7.html
ACF argues that threatened species listing decisions should be based on the best available science, not those in the agricultural industry
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/threatened-species-panel-should-include-agriculture-sector-report-20190627-p521vr.html
The ACF said the review had been a political exercise precipitated by a federal investigation into the alleged illegal clearing of critically endangered grasslands in the Monaro region of NSW.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/27/government-urged-to-set-up-1bn-fund-to-help-farmers-protect-the-environment
The Home Affairs Minister says he has found the practice of meditation helps him to switch off from the pressure of work.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/28/peter-dutton-meditation/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190628
The Skype account of an Australian who has disappeared in North Korea is still active, providing hope for family and friends who fear for his safety.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/06/27/alek-sidley-north-korea/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190628
The longest-serving member of Australia’s government review tribunal has offered a withering assessment of the Department of Human Services’ automated debt recovery program, describing it as a form of extortion.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-27/centrelink-robo-debt-system-extortion-former-tribunal-member/11252306?pfmredir=sm
The two municipal swimming pools in the southeast French city of Grenoble have been shut down, despite the current heatwave, after a row over the use of full-body Islamic burkini swimsuit, the local mayor said Wednesday.
https://news.yahoo.com/burkini-row-shuts-pools-french-town-214012554.html
Brussels has sounded a warning that Boris Johnson’s familiar use of “false promises, pseudo-patriotism and foreigner-bashing” to win the keys to Downing Street is locking Britain into a no-deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/27/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-claims-rubbished-guy-verhofstadt
Italian police have arrested 18 people, including a mayor, doctors and social workers, for allegedly brainwashing vulnerable children into thinking their parents had abused them so they could then be sold to foster parents.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/27/italian-police-arrest-18-for-allegedly-brainwashing-and-selling-children
Australia and New Zealand have been urged to take responsibility for the fact that the demand for drugs in cities such as Sydney and Auckland was having devastating effects on small Pacific nations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/26/australia-and-new-zealand-urged-to-step-up-fight-against-pacific-drug-trade
Temperatures in northern Spain and southern France set to exceed 44C
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/27/hundreds-of-firefighters-tackle-blaze-in-north-east-spain
Israel Folau wants an apology. “Nothing personal in what I said.”
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/rugby-union/nsw-rugby-chair-calls-for-settlement-on-folau-saga-20190627-p521yw.html
Please Izzy, on this occasion, be a quiet Australian. Maybe even a silent one.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6245445/who-are-the-quiet-australians/?cs=14246
She beat the government’s deportation threat.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/western-australia/beloved-perth-grandmother-threatened-with-deportation-dies-in-nursing-home-20190627-p5222f.html
The IPA philosophy. Senator Paterson said “.My view is that it’s not appropriate for the Federal Government to own a single piece of art worth $350 million. It’ll only be worth something to taxpayers when we sell it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-07/governments-$350m-painting-should-be-sold-to-reduce-debt/7911882
The longest-serving member of Australia’s government review tribunal has offered a withering assessment of the Department of Human Services’ automated debt recovery program, describing it as a form of extortion.
Key points:
Terry Carney, former member of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, has described the robo-debt scheme as “extortion”
Victoria Legal Aid has launched two federal court cases challenging robo-debts
The Department of Human Services says it is legally obliged to pursue debts
Terry Carney served as a member of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal’s social security division for 39 years until his term ended in September 2017.
As part of his work he heard some of the first cases about the Federal Government’s online compliance initiative, dubbed the “robo-debt” scheme by some.
Since leaving his position he has become an outspoken critic of the scheme.
Mr Carney told 7.30 that Centrelink repeatedly refused to offer any clear legal defence of the program.
“The [Human Services] Department’s conduct is abysmal,” he said.
“It’s the conduct that you would expect [from] a tinpot, third-world country.
“At no stage does Centrelink ever seek to defend the unlawful basis on which it’s raising those debts.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-27/centrelink-robo-debt-system-extortion-former-tribunal-member/11252306
Only if the debts are real, and not a fabrication by the inefficient calculation of their computers.
Why hasn’t a proper investigation ever been undertaken? We’ve seen several explanations of how these old ‘debts’ are created.
lizzie says: Friday, June 28, 2019 at 7:05 am
Good morning.
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Great job Lizzie !!!! 🙂
Thanks pRED. You’ll notice the NewsCorp papers don’t get a guernsey. 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/business/privatisation-has-damaged-the-economy-says-accc-chief-20160726-gqe2c2.html?fbclid=IwAR1fSahvQZ5O3U7XX5oxyf8QQgXKa3KQBlMA3657q0nzpZ-D1p_SBJ6bqRE
Re the tax claims. Methinks there have been some ‘heroic’ assumptions to come up with some ‘nice’ numbers. Take this lol for instance.
I wonder if Alan rubbed off on Israel?
Here’s some cartoons to brighten up your morning 🙂
From Matt Golding:
Dinner with Donald
Cash for Comments:
Selective Christianity
A few from Michael Leunig:
This one is for lizzie 🙂
Leunig whimsy and he does it so well:
Bob Lawton in the UK after Boris Johnson admitted he makes models in his down time:
From Dr McLeod, cartooning lecturer:
Brilliant! Says it all:
The Trump Administration’s nuanced diplomatic approach toward Iran. Cartoon by Patrick Chappatte of Switzerland, who now works for the NYT:
Cathy Wilcox following Trump and Morrison in Japan:
Matt Golding again:
On Melbourne:
On the upshot of Victoria’s school phone ban:
Andrew Dyson thinks Scott Morrison will be up against it as he tries to save the world:
Simon Letch and Poor Fellow My World:
And, finally, a view about current conditions from Andrew Weldon:
Enjoy!
Very creative, C@t. 🙂
Re: the Folau issue…
Why do conservatives demand that everyone live according to their beliefs? Why do they think it’s somehow ok to impose their beliefs on others? Let us not forget that these people are the very same people who are constantly telling us that Muslims are trying to setup Sharia Law in Australia. The hypocrisy is truly staggering.
All people should be allowed to practice their faith and beliefs in peace. Likewise, all people have the right to be free from other people’s beliefs.
It really is this simple; if you don’t believe in or agree with same sex relationships then don’t enter one! You have no right to tell other people who they can and can’t love though.
I’m not a Union fan (League all the way!) but I applaud the strong stance Rugby Australia has taken in relation to this issue. I also applaud the NRL for backing Rugby Australia by saying that Folau wouldn’t be allowed to come crawling back to Rugby League. He’s made his bed and now he gets to sleep in it.
C@tmomma says: Friday, June 28, 2019 at 7:42 am
Here’s some cartoons to brighten up your morning
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Great Job, C@tmomma !!!! 🙂
E. Jean Carroll’s allegations fit a ‘pattern’ in how other accusers say Trump attacked them: Boston Globe columnist
Advice columnist E. Jean Carroll’s accusation that President Donald Trump forced himself on her in a department store in the 1990s is corroborated by friends who say she confided in them at the time. But that is not the only reason to take the allegation seriously.
As Boston Globe columnist Michael Cohen pointed out on Thursday, Carroll is in fact one of several women who independently described Trump using a similar method of attack in similar circumstances:
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/06/e-jean-carrolls-allegations-fit-a-pattern-in-how-other-accusers-say-trump-attacked-them-boston-globe-columnist/
ALSO in NY Times :
Is Trump a Rapist?
America needs to give these women, and the accusations they’ve brought forth, the full attention they deserve.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/opinion/trump-jean-carroll.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
David Rowe:
Firefox @ #573 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 7:51 am
Well said.
Thanks, lizzie and phoenixRED. 🙂
Trump’s desperate attempts to escape the Fox News bubble are backfiring — now he’s in ‘mortal danger’: report
President Donald Trump was elected largely thanks to a small minority of independent voters who no longer seem to support him or his policies. Since 2016, he’s spent years throwing red meat at his base to shore up conservatives so they will support him in droves. The problem, of course, is that there aren’t enough conservative voters to reelect him, so he’s trying to reach outside the box. It’s not only not working, it’s putting his campaign in “mortal danger.”.
Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman explained that Trump’s efforts to speak to networks other than Fox News has backfired. In the past few weeks, the president has spoken to NBC’s Chuck Todd and ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. Both interviews were public relations disasters.
“Trump’s foray outside the Fox bubble reflects the level of concern at the highest reaches of the Trump campaign about the president’s election prospects at this early stage,” wrote Sherman
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/06/trump-is-trapped-in-roger-ailess-world
Nice work Lizzie & Catmomma
lizzie @ #568 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 7:27 am
What has been sold very well is the idea that selling Public Assets is a good thing. 😐
Thank you, Buce. 🙂
Morning bludgers
Much appreciation Lizzie and c@t
Paul Manafort gets heckled walking into latest indictment hearing
Former Donald Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort appeared in court Thursday for arraignment, and the court crowd was quick to heckle him.
Manafort was charged by Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. for a series of felony charges surrounding mortgage fraud, conspiracy and falsifying business records in New York.
The former international consultant was known for being a snazzy dresser with expensive suits and a $15,000 ostrich jacket. Today, Manafort appeared tired and worn with shaggy hair that had turned gray. The 70-year-old Trump loyalist showed up in handcuffs, dressed in his navy prison uniform.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/06/watch-paul-manafort-gets-heckled-walking-into-latest-indictment-hearing/
Gee Manafort’s packed on the weight.
phoenixRED @ #584 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 8:18 am
I want that to be Donald Trump!
An audience member at a Donald Trump rally.
I’m thinking Parkinsons:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/angela-merkel-is-seen-shaking-for-second-time-in-10-days-20190628-p5223i.html
C@t
The symptoms are those of parkinson
Confessions says: Friday, June 28, 2019 at 8:19 am
Gee Manafort’s packed on the weight.
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He sure looks a lot different to the smart, fashionable, stylish playboy money-man in such a short spell.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rosiegray/tulsi-gabbard-maga-debate
C@t
But Merkel said she was just dehydrated. Does Parkinson’s come on so suddenly?
Fess
Of course she has. She is the Jill Stein of this election cycle. For the right, it is all about divide and conquer.
Hopefully dems and independent voters dont fall for the bullshit again.
Lizzie
Merkel may have been managing her symptoms up until now.
Vic:
If as expected she doesn’t make the cut, I wonder if she’ll run as an independent. That’d really divide and conquer if it’s true there are these ex-Trumpists out there like Ann Coulter willing to vote for her.
C@tmomma says: Friday, June 28, 2019 at 8:20 am
Paul Manafort gets heckled walking into latest indictment hearing
I want that to be Donald Trump!
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Bill Palmer’ opinion :
Paul Manafort is a career criminal whose life is over as a direct result of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign. Donald Trump is also a career criminal whose life is also over as a result of his 2016 campaign – it just hasn’t become official yet. Trump should take a long hard look at the defeated and broken Manafort heading into that courtroom, because unless Trump cuts a resignation plea deal in exchange for a shorter prison sentence, his fate will end up being the same as Manafort.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/paul-manafort-taste-trump-future/18971/
Fess
And as Rick Wilson said
Quote Tweet
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilson
· 8h
Drudge polls being gamed by Russian bots to pump their preferred candidate. This seems…familiar. (link: https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1144216323519635456) twitter.com/thehill/status…
And here’s further proof Trumpists are trying to manipulate the debate outcomes in favour of the Russian candidate.
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/trolls-target-online-polls-following-first-democratic-presidential-debate-n1023406
lizzie @ #592 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 8:29 am
It’s strange, to be sure. Though the article says that a similar incident occurred in Mexico a few years ago. Now it may be an anomalous reaction to dehydration/too much coffee and not enough water, as they are trying to say, but you’d think that she would have compensated for that fact after the first couple of incidents. Also, you have to remember, she is a politician! They prevaricate for a living. 🙂
Vic:
Yep!
Doesn’t look like Morrison has read the riot act to Trump over trade. Wonder how Morrison will go with Xi?
Oh look, suddenly it’s Tulsi Everywhere!
citizen @ #601 Friday, June 28th, 2019 – 8:37 am
He’ll give his boots a good licking as well. 😐