I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:
The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.
That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.
Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.
Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.
In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).
They also tried a bit of lol.
.
.
Iranians greeted new sanctions with mockery. “The only people left to sanction are me, my dad and our neighbor’s kid.”
6h ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/24/world/middleeast/iran-sanctions-response.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Nath,
As someone who does have big ears and was called Dumbo when I was a kid can you please refrain from such references. You might find it amusing but it is not and yes, I do make fun of myself so as not to make others feel uncomfortable.
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:24 pm
‘Jim Chalmers, cry baby.’
Right there is the proof that you’ve accepted it as truth.
______________________________
Given that Chalmers has not denied it, I am inclined to believe it. I just wish Rudd had video taped it. WAH! WAH!
kirky
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:28 pm
Nath,
As someone who does have big ears and was called Dumbo when I was a kid can you please refrain from such references. You might find it amusing but it is not and yes, I do make fun of myself so as not to make others feel uncomfortable.
________________________
cheers big ears.
zoomster @ #1141 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:21 pm
And then repeated it and repeated it and repeated it as gospel.
Simply it seems as though the nonentity nath has found a new mark to vilify from now until the next election.
Pubic lice have more principles than nath does. That I know for a fact.
Pubic lice have more principles than nath does. That I know for a fact.
___________________________
Well I have not experienced pubic lice before so perhaps you have more experience in the matter than I do.
nath
Do you actually have anything against Jim Chalmers – you know, object to his policies, find something he’s said to be untruthful, etc – or do you really have nothing more against him that a bit of tittle tattle from Rudd?
If the latter, you’re pretty contemptible.
…but we knew that.
When an industry that is supposed to certify buildings as safe cannot get insurance, it shows they know the buildings are not safe. Bailing out building surveyors is a band aid for the real problem. Who bails out the owners of billions of dollars of buildings that are a fire hazard? Sorry Dan Andrews, but this is one of your weaker decisions. You are protecting the guilty party. And why should taxpayers pay?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/cladding-crisis-to-hit-construction-as-surveyors-are-refused-insurance-20190625-p52152.html
…we are also, of course, supposed to be encouraging men to express their emotions. It shouldn’t be something which is sneered at.
It would be a shame if Israel Folau is martyred for expressing the view that gay people are going to Hell unless they repent.
I wonder what the outcome would have been if the Australian Rugby Union had refrained from terminating his contract and had instead issued a strongly worded statement along the lines of:
“We find Israel Folau’s statement to be intolerant, hateful, and misguided. We condemn the statement. We are acutely aware of the prevalence of mental illness and emotional pain inflicted by statements such as the one that Israel Folau has so unwisely made. We also note that many gay people face physical assault because of their sexual orientation. We believe it is very important to eradicate the hateful attitudes that harm gay people.”
You are a pathetic small minded individual and who is probably small in other anatomic areas as well.
Good night.
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:34 pm
nath
Do you actually have anything against Jim Chalmers – you know, object to his policies, find something he’s said to be untruthful, etc – or do you really have nothing more against him that a bit of tittle tattle from Rudd?
If the latter, you’re pretty contemptible.
…but we knew that.
____________________________________
I’ve yet to find much to be impressed about. What annoyed me was all the people in need of a saviour promoting him. Rudd’s story was informative on his character, I make no further claims against him as yet.
kirky
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:35 pm
You are a pathetic small minded individual and who is probably small in other anatomic areas as well.
Good night.
_________________________________
I’m sorry your gigantic ears have led you to be so disparaging of those with small minds and ‘other anatomic areas’. We are not all blessed as you are with massive ears capable of detecting approaching threats at 100 feet.
Good grief, the swamp this blog sinks into when “Nath” and “Rex Douglas” are on!
I assume Stephen Jones’ comments are a direct result of election results in the heavily faith-based seats and their voters feedback of a sense of lack of respect for their faith.
I’m more and more coming around to Briefly’s way of thinking. Labor are !@#$%.
Gee folks act your ages. PB isn’t a children’s playground.
So is it now official Lib-Lab policy to allow religious based hate speech ?
Davidwh @6:47PM. Seconded.
citizen @ #1150 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 4:26 pm
Which was my point. I’m in one of the state capitals – the one furthest west.
No biggie, I’m sure the Bludgertariat will provide an in depth (and totally unbiased – ahem) review.
As for bigoted voters who cling to their belief about spirits and gods greater than any human authority to attempt to “justify” their bigotry, may I remind them that my right to swing my arm ends where their nose begins. (Actually, somewhat before that point.) Same goes with their right to “offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate” others: it ends before the point at which it harms those others. And believing some people are “against God” has emboldened many thugs throughout history to drive many victims to hospital or the morgue.
Michael A @ #1170 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:53 pm
Stephen Jones and Labor put it all under the ‘multiculturalism’ banner.
Nothing to see here apparently.
I wonder if Barnaby Joyce has piped up in favour of Folau? Folau did say he thinks “fornicators” and “adulterers” are “going to hell”, too.
Morrison looked like he downed a lot of schooners during the campaign, too. Interesting.
If you read the gospels, you will note that the character Jesus is portrayed as reserving his fiercest condemnations for hypocrites.
I’m 100% with you here, Rex. This crap is not something that should be pandered.
Watching the debate about the religious prick’s views on the Drum.
It’s not about his right to express certain views because they are sanctioned by his ‘religion’.
It’s about his right to breach a central behavioural clause of a contract inserted specifically because of his earlier form on the precise issue and agreed to by him in his greed to get millions more dollars from the ARU.
Not on are his views scum, but also his greedy character.
your missing the point Michael. You can do all of that as long as you repent afterwards. No doubt Barnaby has made the necessary propitiation and is once more bathed in the blood of the lamb of God. Pure as the driven snow.
We just have to hope that Morrison doesn’t somehow manage to send some taxpayers’ money to the ACL that indirectly finds its way into the Folau fund.
As to the money now being donated, the happy clapper groups – for example Hillsong – quite forthrightly tell people to give money and in return they will be rewarded with prosperity.
TPOF @ #1174 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 7:04 pm
The courts should rule in Folau’s favour and it’s all ok because his views come under ‘multiculturalism’ ! …………apparently !
If Israel Folau is heaven-bound I would not want to end up there.
Nicholas @ #1160 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:35 pm
What a great idea, Nicholas! A reverse ferret!
Izzie sucks up a lot of dough from RWNJs in order to blow it all on lawyers and possibly cost some national rugby club a motza. I’m not really seeing a downside.
Imagine all the other things those kids could be doing with their money?
My heart bleeds for these ACL members, who are sufficiently well off to lavishly contribute to a millionaire rugby player’s quest to make the world safe for hate speech (as long as a church sanctions it). Poor didums, they’re not feeling they’re being “shown enough respect”.
Not on(ly) are his views scum, but also his greedy character.
That’s the Prosperity Gospel in one for you. 😐
The edict of His Grace, The Right Reverend Archbishop of Sydney Glenn Davies, is somewhat askew. While supporting Folau, he conveniently omitted to take account of his (Folau’s) denial of Christmas, Easter – the most sacred dates in the Christian calendar. No matter Glenno, when you’re a senior cleric you can have it both ways, particularly as the leader of the Sydney Anglican diocese, which has form.
Another dodgy SDA EBA, this time with Dominos Pizza coming under scrutiny via a class action by workers.
Who gives a shit about Israel Folau?
Once again the tactics of the right work like a treat, with the willing complicity of the left, of course.
The unctuous new head of the ACL, Martin Isles (if you listen to him you will only agree with me), was relating a story in his Newsradio interview this afternoon about how he once saw the ‘sweet and gentle’ (insert vomit emoji here) Izzy Folau go over to a corner and make a selfie video for a couple of young kids who were being bullied at school because of their faith, after he told him about it.
Yeah, right, I thought to myself, I’ll believe in the kind and generous nature of Israel Folau when he makes a selfie video for a couple of young school kids who are being bullied for their sexuality.
I wonder if Cory Bernadi has the distinction of being the only party leader in Australian political history never to actually run for election under that party?
adrian @ #1187 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 7:14 pm
I give a shit because the Right are trying to hijack the political debate in this country and because Scott Morrison has wasted no time engaging in a Culture War to try and force the issue of so-called ‘Religious Freedom’ down our throats.
It’s exactly as the unctuous new head of the ACL put it, he wants to waste no time at all in trying to create the equivalent in Australia of the American Religious Right.
Sorry, but I’m going to fight that with every breath in my body. I sure as hell am not going to ignore it.
You’d expect right-wingers to respect the sanctity of contracts. In this case there was nothing exploitative or oppressive about the clause relating to social media use. It is entirely reasonable and legitimate for the ARU to protect their own reputation and that of the national team, and to want to avoid jeopardising that reputation because a high profile player is saying horrible things about gay folks. Israel Folau agreed to the clause. He didn’t have to agree. He could have decided not to play.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 7:14 pm
After 16 wonderful years at @australian – yes, even the bits that involved @jonkudelka – I am off to toil in the word mines as speechwriter to @AlboMP. It’ll be bittersweet leaving here, but here’s to a grand new adventure.— James Jeffrey (@James_Jeffrey) June 25, 2019
————————–
Albanese doing another Kevin Rudd, who hired an newsltd hack to work for him.
When will members of the Labor party learn news ltd and media are not going to be friends , will do damage to Labor party than good
We are missing the most important point; win or loose Folau is likely to hasten the death of Australian Rugby and that can’t be a bad thing.
Huzzah, I say!
It would be a negative development if USA style evangelical right-wing Christianity metastasised in Australia as a result of this legal dispute.
Scott @ #1190 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 7:22 pm
Albanese has had Matthew Franklin, formerly with The Australian, working for him as his Press Secretary for 6 years already. It hasn’t seemed to have changed him that much.
The cricket’s on !
C’mon Aussie !!!
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 7:24 pm
Albanese has had Matthew Franklin, formerly with The Australian, working for him as his Press Secretary for 6 years already. It hasn’t seemed to have changed him that much.
———————–
Matthew Franklin was the one who was hired by Rudd , didn’t know he has been with Albanese , yes you are right , nothing has changed and will not changed until those in the Labor get the guts and start clearing out the newsltd hacks.
Labor needs to stop hiring pro coalition propaganda hacks
“Nicholas says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 7:23 pm
It would be a negative development if USA style evangelical right-wing Christianity metastasised in Australia as a result of this legal dispute.”
To some extent this has already happened. The ACL is carrying on like its US evangelical counterparts, with an emphasis on matters related to sex and “religious freedom”. In both countries the head of government is supported by the RW religious establishment and in return seeks to give that establishment what it wants.
A good move. Why should Labor do the government’s work for it from opposition?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/25/jim-chalmers-ditches-labors-pre-election-pledge-to-conduct-review-into-newstart
“It would be a negative development if USA style evangelical right-wing Christianity metastasised in Australia as a result of this legal dispute.”
I think that this is happening already, not just in Australia. It’s the fastest growing religion in Latin America (Brazil’s new President is a follower) and is growing in the Pilipines and other East Asian countries.
I think that it’s simplicity appeals. It appeals to right wing authoritarians, a big segment of the population. It promises certainty, a state if mind I can barely imagine.
When Folau hears ACL does he first think funding opportunity or Anterior Crucial Ligament?