I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:
The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.
That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.
Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.
Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.
In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).
I’m not Christian but I find Christianity to be intellectually rich and nuanced, full of wonder, focused on relevant questions, committed to learning and humility and service…. very different from the right-wing evangelical version of Christianity.
C@tmomma @ #1189 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 7:19 pm
Just another storm in another teacup, whipped up by the forces of darkness. Distraction 101.
Has Jim Chalmers met Israel Folau? It could be a wonderful pop culture moment.
Magnificent!
poroti says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:28 pm
They also tried a bit of lol.
.
.
Iranians greeted new sanctions with mockery. “The only people left to sanction are me, my dad and our neighbor’s kid.”
6h ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/24/world/middleeast/iran-sanctions-response.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
___________________________________
Ah poroti, your ancestors would have been like if only there could be mediation or facilitation between Germany and Poland there’d be no need for war in 1939.
nath says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:31 pm
…”Well I have not experienced pubic lice before so perhaps you have more experience in the matter than I do”…
Funny story about crabs,
You see, human pubic lice weren’t originally a parasite of humans.
Every mammal has at least one type of lice specific to it, for example human head lice, however our pubic lice are a little bit different.
Their flatter and ventrally wider bodies are thought to have evolved to suit the thicker and coarser hair of several other primates.
Obviously, you can figure out for yourself how it is they managed to take an evolutionary leap, as it were, to humans.
Kimberley Kitching wants Australia’s Christian heritage enhanced, perhaps she can do some joint appearances with Folau.
Oakeshott Country:
[‘We are missing the most important point; win or loose Folau is likely to hasten the death of Australian Rugby and that can’t be a bad thing.’]
It would be a terrible thing – well, that adjective’s admittedly a bit strong. The fact is, we are close to the world cup in October. Falou, who’s ostensibly agitating his case following his dear father’s advice that (paraphrased): “He’d go to hell if he didn’t pursue his attack on anyone who doesn’t follow his perverse interpretation of the scriptures”, is but a mere patsy for higher, discreet instructions, almost assuredly including Morrison, who’s attempting to impose his religiosity by stealth, through his high office. Make no mistake, the battle ahead is going to be bloody.
Confessions @ #1198 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:35 pm
The government is not going to do anything about it and I’ve no idea why you think it’s a good idea why those on Newstart will have to wait another three years for something to happen. And when it does happen, sorry I mean IF it happens, they’ll probably have to wait another year for this “review” to be finished, before it goes into the “There’s no votes in it, so we’ll abandon it” basket.
Not a good move at all IMO. No offence but I think you need to spend some time on Newstart to make you realise just how “good” an idea it is – along with Jim Chalmers.
I naively thought the Folau matter would die a natural death with the cancellation of the crowdfunding page. How wrong I was.
Adrian is right that this is just a distraction. It’s not about religious freedom or even free speech.
Dan G:
The numbers in the parliament mean that even if Labor initiated a review of Newstart, it wouldn’t go anywhere. Not to start much less result in change to the payments.
The issue just becomes another happy distraction for the govt. Chalmers is right: if there’s any pressure to be brought on the issue of Newstart allowance, it should be on the govt.
” says the White House is “afflicted by mental retardation.””
This is considered news?? 🙁
Folau is best ignored. Surely Littlefingers unpleasant experience attacking ScoMo on his fundy views re Folau should have shown religion based attacks backfire on Labor.
Maybe Albo will end up being one of the 8 parishioners at his Marrackville local Church and take a leaf out of the Rudd book – with a doorstop after the church service on Sunday afternoon?
A voice of reason in “Hellgate”: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-25/israel-folau-crowdfunding-free-speech-simon-longstaff-analysis/11245082
Confessions @ #1210 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:55 pm
You mean like ACOSS, just about every charity in Australia, and even the BCA have been doing for the last 6 years?
And wouldn’t a “review” by Labor, plus all the above mentioned combined help to apply pressure on the government?
What Chalmers, and you have just said is it’s up to the group with the least political clout, the group the government cares least about to apply the pressure themselves because Labor isn’t going to do anything to help.
And how pray tell do you propose that the group with the least political clout, the group the government cares least about goes about applying this “pressure”?
Jim Chalmers is a big supporter of Kevin Rudd (apparently) – presumably after “his talk” with Kevin.
Labor candidate Jim Chalmers doesn’t deny writing Wayne Swan’s blistering criticism of Kevin Rudd
By political reporter Latika Bourke
Updated 22 Aug 2013, 9:29am
VIDEO: Watch Jim Chalmers’ comments (ABC News)
PHOTO: Jim Chalmers who is now running for Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin. (News Online Sydney)
RELATED STORY: As it happened: Leaders back on the road after Brisbane debate
Wayne Swan’s former chief of staff and now Labor candidate Jim Chalmers has not denied writing a damning statement which described Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as having no Labor values.
The blistering statement was issued by Mr Swan before Mr Rudd returned to the Labor leadership.
It described Mr Rudd as wasting “all the opportunities in the world with his dysfunctional decision making” and and said he had a “deeply demeaning attitude” towards Caucus.
Mr Chalmers, who is now running for Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin south of Brisbane, has told the ABC he regards himself as a “tremendous supporter of Kevin Rudd’s”.
Asked whether the statement should colour his candidacy, Mr Chalmers replied: “Not at all.”
He says “the words that politicians put out are their own” and the statement belongs to the former treasurer.
“I’m a big supporter of Kevin Rudd,” he said, adding he has since written a book praising the economic stimulus policies introduced by the Prime Minister in response to the global financial crisis.
The statement also accused the Prime Minister of trying to tear down Julia Gillard’s 2010 campaign and undermining her government “at every turn”.
Mr Chalmers says he was proud to work with Mr Rudd, Mr Swan and Ms Gillard.
Former Labor MP Brett Raguse lost a pre-selection battle with Mr Chalmers for the seat of Rankin.
He told the ABC that Mr Chalmer’s involvement with Mr Swan’s statement was “probably a bit naïve” given his political ambitions and solidarity being crucial to election campaigns.
“A voice of reason in “Hellgate”:”
Interesting article…thanks.
Freedom of religion, like freedom of speech comes with both rights and responsibilities.
“Surely Littlefingers unpleasant experience attacking ScoMo on his fundy views re Folau..”
Never happened. Stop talking bullshit. Instead why not just try to convince us as to why we should be voting Liberal.
Actually what I’ve said is that any pressure to be brought on the issue of Newstart should be brought on the govt who are the only one able to do anything about it. Not the opposition.
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 8:09 pm
“Surely Littlefingers unpleasant experience attacking ScoMo on his fundy views re Folau..”
Never happened. Stop talking bullshit. Instead why not just try to convince us as to why we should be voting Liberal.
___________________________
Bill Shorten yesterday volunteered at a press conference that he considered the Prime Minister’s refusal to comment on his religious beliefs was part of “propositions being put that are being advanced that gay people are going to go to hell”.
“I cannot believe that the Prime Minister has not immediately said that gay people will not go to hell,” Shorten declared after Morrison declined to respond to questions about gays going to hell because his faith was a personal matter
Confessions @ #1218 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:10 pm
Isn’t it the opposition’s job to apply pressure on the government?
Steve777 maybe you should go search for the pubic lice with c@t before you start making uninformed attacks on moi.
Just saying!
Lars Von Trier:
[‘Folau is best ignored.’]
What parallel universe do you live in? The Falou matter will continue unabated until it’s resolved by the High Court – at which point this disturbed, avaricious, impressionable young man will be bankrupted, at each stage of litigation, subject to security costs’ orders. Remember, many members of the judiciary are rugger fans to their bootstraps.
Mavis Davis says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 8:19 pm
___________________
Rugby Aust offered him $2m before they sacked him. There will be a settlement and Folau will go and play in France.
The obvious question for Rugby Australia is why create a martyr – when clearly Folau wants , needs , seeks to be a martyr. Deny him the wish but it will be an expensive price for wish denial now!
Of course. But you don’t need to promise a go-nowhere review of Newstart to achieve this.
Why does it need to be debated ad nauseum until such a point? It actually isn’t an issue outside the individual parties concerned. Those being Folau and the ARU/Wallabies.
Folau may or may not win the case but I agree his football future is probably with the other dregs of society in the Catalan Dragons.
It is rumoured that Les Dragons are concerned by Brexit. Many of there players would have difficulty getting visas into England
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 8:31 pm
I can’t imagine ARU’s settlement with Folau will include re-instatement
They decided to take what they perceived as the moral high ground and can’t retreat.
Folau may or may not win the case but I suspect his football future is probably with the other dregs of society in the Catalan Dragons
____________________
Yes more than likely.
What’s your tip in the Jodi v Minns grudge match? Thoughts?
Confessions @ #1224 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:29 pm
OK, fine. There’s more important things to do.
Fess
Not at all. This will be a major battleground in the culture wars for which the last election was a mere skirmish
Lars Von Trier:
[‘There will be a settlement and Folau will go and play in France.’]
Poppycock: no country will risk accepting this renegade. I blame Methodism and his old man for his intransigence. I mean, he went from RL to AFL, where from memory he scored two goals, thence to rugger, where he played on the wing or fullback, rarely being involved in a tackle. He’s a gentle lad – our Izzy. But he’s going to have to toughen up in the near future when the costs are going to accrue.
“after Morrison declined to respond to questions about gays going to hell because his faith was a personal matter”
I see LVT is getting into bebunking his own nasty bollocks now. 🙂
The only mention of “faith” was by the author of the article, apparently after Morriscum bravely ran away from a question.
Really……….responding to LVT and nath is a bit of a sad game.
Manure is, at best, something a bit toxic you may talk about if you are a farmer, not expect to have any kind of conversation with, and should really walk past so the smell doesn’t stick.
“the only mention of “faith” was by the author of the article”
Sorry, misread that. It was actually Morriscum who related it to his alleged faith not a reporter.
What a foul and duplicitous grub the man is.
Sounds like Jode’s is the pea.
I remember when she was just the newsreader on NBN3 – and not the main reader to Newcastle (that was Ray Deneen) but the second stringer to Coffs and Port.
I think she does deserve support – as she was the victim of one of Joe’s more outrageous earners. Imagine an office bearer of the NSW Right conducting a secret poison pen campaign against one of his own candidates for the benefit of the boganaire. As the boganaire never paid his bills I wonder if Joe got anything out of it
Folau will not be required to provide any security for costs. It is rarely required of individuals in court cases and won’t be for one who holds substantial assets.
Oakeshott Country @ #1226 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:36 pm
Yes I’m starting to see that. Was interesting listening to Gillian Triggs on this in a lengthy interview with Patricia Karvelas:
https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1143421466832019457
As an employee of an organisation that has expectations staff do not compromise the organisation on social media or in the public per se, I’m struggling to understand what the problem is. Hence my zero care factor for Folau.
Confessions:
[‘Why does it need to be debated ad nauseum until such a point? It actually isn’t an issue outside the individual parties concerned. Those being Folau and the ARU/Wallabies.’]
If you think the Folau matter’s going away, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. This is not about Folau per se: it’s a battle royale between religion and secularism – he’s just a mere pawn.
Dodgy and dodgier
Take your pick?
“If you think the Folau matter’s going away, I’ve got a bridge to sell you”
Agreed. It’s too rich a mine of bullshit and division for the Coalition and their Religious / RWNuttjobbie supporters to walk past. Particularly as Morriscum wants to exploit it for his Religious Freedom distraction.
Mavis Davis @ #1233 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:45 pm
This isn’t a battle royale between religion and secularism. It’s a battle royale for overpaid, loudmouthed religious culture warriors happy to find a wagon to hitch their outdated out of touch rhetoric to.
But when you break this matter down, nobody’s rights have been impinged. Folau is still free to say what he thinks about gay people, atheists, whomever. Just not while he’s a representative of the ARU if those views bring the organisation into disrepute.
As I said, there’s no need for this matter to be drawn out in public debate the way it has. It’s now with the courts, let them do what they do, and let the parliament deal with the fallout.
I think Morrison is only a minor part of the Folau imbroglio. Do not forget that 40% of the Australian electorate voted against SSM
Fessy
To some extent the Folau matter is fairly straight forward with Folau being sacked for not following the code’s standards but there remains a potential industrial relations question that will depend on how FWC rules.
Price on redneck radio tonight, framing the Folau thing as the usual RW BS of a “fight for free speech”.
It’s not hard to see where Scott “Happyclapper” Morrison and his henchmen will try to take this.
LVT @8:14PM.
You are quoting something but didn’t post a link. Bill Shorten did not have a press conference today. Your troll-in-arms Nath informed us earlier that he is in a luxury villa on Bali hobnobbing with the “top end of town”, or something.
I think that you might be referring to this exchange a couple of weeks before the election: https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/govern-for-all-shorten-takes-aim-at-morrison-over-gays-going-to-hell-20190514-p51n3k.html
You say that this was Shorten attacking Morrison’s “fundy views”. I beg to differ. Morrison prevaricated when asked about an attack on a maligned and vulnerable group by a prominent public figure (although one I had not previously heard of). Morrison chimed in the following day to say that he also disagree with what that figure said.
As to your inane and offensive post @8:16, I have no idea what it’s about and I don’t want to know.
There is another way to look at this.
Folau quotes 1 Corinthians – not a particularly obscure scripture (used to get an occassional run at mass when I was a boy) All us adulterers, idolators etc etc think what a tool (who actually believes in Hell anyway) but homosexuality is one of the trigger points in the kulturkampf and the fight begins. If the dick had left homosexuality out of it we could have left him to his delusions
I reckon Jim Chalmers got this response to a question about Newstart just about right.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/25/jim-chalmers-ditches-labors-pre-election-pledge-to-conduct-review-into-newstart
I’m pleased the ALP dropped that dud newstart review policy, it was an insult and it would be better to either promise an increase or not bother instead of saying there will be some expert driven talk fest that might lead to an increase.
BK:
I agree.
Steve777. I am not a troll. Please apologise immediately.
I just realised that the verse immediately before the one quoted by Folau directs Christians the not begin law cases – he must have missed that one
1 Corinthians 6:7
The very fact that you have lawsuits among you means you have been completely defeated already. Why not rather be wronged? Why not rather be cheated?
imacca @ #1230 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 8:37 pm
Sorry, the smell that emanates from their excretions is so great that sometimes you have to comment. I could put it more colloquially but I won’t. You probably get the drift. 🙂