I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:
The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.
That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.
Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.
Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.
In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).
My home town in Sussex is very close to The Dicker, Upper Dicker and Lower Dicker.
@Rex Douglas
Having Labor MP’s and Senators abstain on the whole tax cut package, might actually be not a bad strategy.
Anyway in all seriousness for Labor to win the next election, Anthony Albanese will probably need to break bread with Rupert Murdoch. Because the only time since 1993 Labor has won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives in a Federal Election, it was with News Corporation endorsement of the party.
It says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 2:51 pm
Could people stop pumping up the tyres of big ears cry baby Jim Chalmers?
________________________________
Is this the kind of mindless shit that passes as political comment these days. Perhaps it’s ok to go back to talking about female politicians with saggy tits.
Matt @ #268 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:05 pm
I think apathy is the main issue.
We need a genuine leader to engage the voters and cut though with a message of decency and kindness and generosity.
TPOF @ #274 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:22 pm
Chalmers at least is articulate and somewhat engaging. A vast improvement on Bowen.
So, we have possies for the holes left by such luminaries as Sinodinos, Fifield and possibly Bernardi.
Deserving infill peeps abound: Georgina Downer and Jim Molan come readily to mind.
TPOF
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 5:22 pm
It says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 2:51 pm
Could people stop pumping up the tyres of big ears cry baby Jim Chalmers?
________________________________
Is this the kind of mindless shit that passes as political comment these days.
_____________________________________
Maybe. But I find the story about Chalmers crying and begging Rudd for his seat rather interesting and informative on his character.
Matt says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 4:59 pm
The Anglican Archbishop of Sydney is saying
…Did they still have Archbishops? I thought all they had these days was empty pews!
In all seriousness: You’re more or less accurate, Nicholas. Israel Folau’s right to free speech is balanced by the terms of his employment contract. Just as we cannot use social-media to badmouth our bosses and expect continued employment, Mr. Folau’s use of social-media to damage his employer’s public image is incompatible with his continued employment by them. Why should they spend money employing someone who is harming them, after all?
@Boerwar: Yes, this is Archbishop Davies – the same guy who ponied up $1,000,000 of Church treasure opposing equality.
_________________________
It’s just a matter of priorities. Personally, I have nothing but contempt for the people who are supporting Folau’s legal action in seeking to set aside the consequences of breaking his contract. I hope he and they lose big time.
Boerwar @ #277 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:29 pm
Wouldn’t Mundine get the nod before the old coot Molan ..?
nath @ #278 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:30 pm
Crying and begging ..??
Chalmers, when he was working for Wayne Swan was very active in ruining Rudd’s image after he was deposed, including writing some very unkind words. When Rudd was re-installed and Chalmers needed his support for pre-selection for Rankin in 2013, he flew to Canberra and yes cried and begged for Rudd’s forgiveness, which was granted.
This bloke Peter Holding was an adviser to Steve Bracks and John Brumby.
http://www.holdingpattern.info/labors-economic-policies-and-modern-monetary-theory/?fbclid=IwAR2fCekXZISt01T1urnihzmYKuJbo4kMQtPSFSvqHP6GK3aGGJmblNJ2yQY
nath @ #282 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:38 pm
That’s pretty funny ! 😆
So the nonentity nath is quoting from an interview Kevin Rudd did with Latika Bourke before he was allowed back into the Labor tent? Whose only authority and witness to the conversation with Jim Chalmers is one, Kevin Rudd?
Unbelievable.
No, it’s all in Rudd’s book The PM Years, published 7 months ago.
nath @ #286 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:46 pm
Even funnier !! 😆
On Folau, Christianity and the “right” to express hate-mongering views in the name of “exercising one’s religion”:
Pentecostalism is to Christianity as the “Ponds Institute” is to science. And Morrison is also a Pentecostalist.
Chalmers has a big task in preparing an economic framework that rewards business for investing in Green jobs for regional blue collar workers.
That’s his test.
A relapse into caving into the coal lobby won’t go well for him.
Also in Rudd’s book was Shortens initial dislike of being minister for NDIS, thinking it was ‘beneath him’, although Rudd admitted that Shorten eventually came around to the position.
Chalmers obviously thought a few tears and dropping to his knees was worth it for a safe seat and in time becoming a millionaire.
The Coalition drones have moved seamlessly from killing Shorten onto killing Albanese, Chalmers and whomwever.
The technique works: keep the discussion on Chalmers in order to keep the discussion off such wonderful ministers as Ley and Taylor.
nath @ #1119 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:51 pm
Did you actually purchase the book ..or was it a gift ?
Nath you’re certainly the king of tittle-tattle
Rex Douglas
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 5:58 pm
nath @ #1119 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:51 pm
Also in Rudd’s book was Shortens initial dislike of being minister for NDIS, thinking it was ‘beneath him’, although Rudd admitted that Shorten eventually came around to the position.
Did you actually purchase the book ..or was it a gift ?
_____________________________
God no. Free to read swathes of it on Google Books.
TPOF says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 5:22 pm
“female politicians with saggy tits”
Bill Shorten jogging comes to mind …
Boerwar @ #1121 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:57 pm
This is mostly a Labor / Green forum which focuses largely on progressive policy debate.
I think most here are like-minded regarding RW policy so logically there is little to debate.
Kate
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:00 pm
Nath you’re certainly the king of tittle-tattle
_____________________________
When so much of what is actually the important aspects of politics is behind the scenes, away from the cameras and parliament. It makes sense to know what’s really happening and the tittle-tattle is always rich in substance.
Albo = Good
Chalmers = Bad
They’ll need to find someone else for Treasury – this week’s performance re tax has convinced me Chalmers is not up to it. If your opposed to tax cuts on high income earners have the courage of your convictions and just say it – instead of some form of weaselly lets pass Stage 1 and 2 and we’ll talk later about Stage 3.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 5:58 pm
nath @ #1119 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:51 pm
Also in Rudd’s book was Shortens initial dislike of being minister for NDIS, thinking it was ‘beneath him’, although Rudd admitted that Shorten eventually came around to the position.
Did you actually purchase the book ..or was it a gift ?
—————————————
Okay guys, I think it’s time you two booked a room together, before this goes any further in public.
nath @ #1124 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:00 pm
You’re a better man than I for going to the effort of reading anything he ‘s got to publish.
You’re a better man than I for going to the effort of reading anything he ‘s got to publish.
_____________________
Actually Lars first mentioned it on here a while back. I just checked Rudd’s biography before I ran with it myself.
ICANCU @ #1125 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:00 pm
Well, the optics weren’t great…
nath @ #1131 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:07 pm
I give the man no credibility whatsoever.
You have to ask what Shorten was thinking with all that jogging. Well it wasn’t really jogging, it was more like stumbling forward sporadically for a prolonged period.
I guess he was trying to demonstrate his determination, similar to Howard’s incessant striding. It was a message to the people, look…I can move…..
I give the man no credibility whatsoever.
___________________\
Chalmers hasn’t denied the story. And if Rudd was into making up stories, his book would have been an infinitely better read.
‘Shortens initial dislike of being minister for NDIS..’
Which wasn’t actually a thing at the time Shorten assumed the Ministry.
(There’s at least one story about Rudd breaking down in tears, too, and given his reaction to that, you think he’d be a little more careful about dissing others for the same thing…)
good nit-picking zoom. right on time.
I find nath’s willingness to trust what a politician says post politics quite charmingly naive.
Apparently leaving politics means you become completely honest and open over night, and any desire for self aggrandisement just vanishes.
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:17 pm
I find nath’s willingness to trust what a politician says post politics quite charmingly naive.
Apparently leaving politics means you become completely honest and open over night, and any desire for self aggrandisement just vanishes.
_________________________
Naturally if Rudd made claims about his own prowess etc I would have more scepticism than I would for the Chalmers story.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/this-is-what-multiculturalism-looks-like-labor-frontbencher-stephen-jones-backs-folau-stance/news-story/d5e1c81ee69b8a6492bd40bfd72a905c
ughh !
nath
You have form on this. It’s not the first time you’ve simply accepted something as gospel because a former MP has said it.
The Associated Press
@AP
BREAKING: Iran’s President Rouhani mocks President Trump, says the White House is “afflicted by mental retardation.”
Multiculturalism does not mean lowering your standards to allow hate speech and bigotry.
Labor should permanently gag Stephen Jones.
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 6:21 pm
nath
You have form on this. It’s not the first time you’ve simply accepted something as gospel because a former MP has said it.
__________________________
I’ve not accepted it as gospel. It’s an account of a conversation that did take place. Chalmers has not denied or offered an alternative account. I’m not betting on it, nor risking anything in pointing to it as a behind the scenes account of Jim Chalmers, cry baby.
…anyway, providing examples of what a nasty sod Rudd is simply shows why he was dumped in the first place. The other pollie who told stories like this – about Rudd – was Latham. You’d think Rudd would have more self respect, but apparently he likes portraying himself as an egocentric vindictive worm.
‘Jim Chalmers, cry baby.’
Right there is the proof that you’ve accepted it as truth.
Hell’s Gate in British Columbia is a beautiful spot to visit on the way to Jasper and the Canadian Rockies.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hells_Gate_(British_Columbia)
Michael A @ #1117 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 5:51 pm
Yes it all became clear to me this afternoon when I was listening to an interview with the new head of the ACL, the unctuous Martin Isles, and he equated those supporting the Christian bigot, Folau, with ‘The Quiet Australians’.
William Bowe @ #1143 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 6:22 pm
I don’t condone such comments, but I get his point nonetheless…
“Dan Gulberry says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 3:19 pm
Anyone who doesn’t have Foxtel can view tonight’s and tomorrow night’s demise of Mal on free-to-air WIN Ch. 53.
Only those who have access to WIN 53 can watch it.”
In Canberra it’s on WIN 83 and the channel would depend on where you are located on the WIN network (outside the State capitals).