I had a paywalled Crikey article on Friday on the religion factor in the election result, drawing on results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey. Among other things, it had this to say:
The results from the 2016 survey provide some support for the notion, popular on the right of the Liberal Party, that Malcolm Turnbull brought the government to the brink of defeat by losing religious voters, who appear to have flocked back to the party under Morrison. Notably, the fact that non-religious voters trusted Turnbull a lot more than they did Abbott did not translate into extra votes for the Coalition, whereas a two-party swing to Labor of 7% was recorded among the religiously observant.
The charts below expand upon the survey data featured in the article, showing how Labor’s two-party preferred has compared over the years between those who attend religious services several times a year or more (“often”), those who do so less frequently (“sometimes”), and those who don’t do it at all (“never”).
Some other post-election observations:
• Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports the looming Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the election will examine the three-week pre-polling period and the extent of Clive Palmer’s campaign spending. There is not, it would seem, any appetite to explore the debilitating phenomenon of fake news proliferating on social media, for which Australia arguably experienced a watershed moment during the campaign through claims Labor had a policy to introduce a “death tax”. This is explored in depth today in a report in The Guardian and an accompanying opinion piece by Lenore Taylor. That said, not all of the mendacity about death taxes was subterranean, as demonstrated by this official Liberal Party advertisement.
• As best as I can tell, all votes for the House of Representatives have been counted now. There was a fall in the official turnout rate (UPDATE: No, actually — it’s since risen to 91.9%, up from 91.0% in 2016), which, together with the fact that not all votes had been counted at the time, gave rise to a regrettable article in the Age-Herald last week. However, as Ben Raue at the Tally Room explores in depth, the turnout rate reflects the greater coverage of the electoral roll owing to the Australian Electoral Commission’s direct enrolment procedures. This appears to have succeeded to some extent in increasing the effective participation rate, namely votes cast as a proportion of the eligible population rather than those actually enrolled, which by Raue’s reckoning tracked up from 80.0% in 2010 to 83.2% – an enviable result by international standards. However, it has also means a larger share of the non-voting population is now on the roll rather than off it, and hence required to bluff their way out of a fine for not voting.
• The rate of informal voting increased from 5.0% to 5.5%, but those seeking to tie this to an outbreak of apathy are probably thinking too hard. Antony Green notes the shift was peculiar to New South Wales, and puts this down to the proximity of a state election there, maximising confusion arising from its system of optional preferential voting. The real outlier in informal voting rates of recent times was the low level recorded in 2007, which among other things causes me to wonder if there might be an inverse relationship between the informal voting rate and the level of enthusiasm for Labor.
bbp @ 7:21pm:
“Both of the core support areas are soft – one because Labor can put up left candidates who can attract the non hard Socialist Green vote – think Albo, Tanya Plibersek or Ged Kearney (an inspired choice for Cooper). The other is soft because it is essentially a protest vote – it is a vote that only wants to go the least worse alternative.”
Until the ALP deals with the cancer that is the NSW Right, this will forever remain a pipe dream. As long as that faction drives the national policy agenda, you’ll never attract your targets.
The state governments have to use revenues, or bonds, or asset sales to finance their services and infrastructure.
The beauty of the federal government’s financial position is that it isn’t financially constrained. The constraint on the federal government is the availability of real resources that are for sale in the government’s currency. The federal government spends by writing up numbers in Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank. The federal government taxes by writing down numbers in Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank.
Currently the federal government is not spending as much as it could. There is a significant amount of non-inflationary fiscal space that the federal government can and should be using. The federal government’s deficit needs to be bigger.
Until the ALP deals with the cancer that is the NSW Right, this will forever remain a pipe dream. As long as that faction drives the national policy agenda, you’ll never attract your targets.
Says someone who doesn’t seem to have realised that the federal Labor leader is from the Left faction and the Senate Labor leader is also from…the Left.
Also the former Shadow Treasurer…from the NSW Right, has stepped aside.
Looking a lot like the cancer is well on the way to being cured.
But carry on with your delusions, DRDR. They’re quaint. 🙂
“Albo gave a good speech, as did Richard Marles. There was an over-flowing crowd to welcome them both. They said the things that needed to be said. The challenge is formidable. Of this there is no doubt. But the spirit is strong. Labor will fight.”
🙂 I was there. yup, Albo did a good one. Navigating to the bar was a trial the place was so packed, but dealt with. 🙂 Met Marles..nice bloke.
One part of Albo’s speech i liked was when he talked about aspiration and the meaning of the word.
to paraphrase:
For Tories personal wealth and security, position and advancing themselves.
For the ALP people gathered its about more than that. Aspiration means advancing the collective interests of a society as well as their own.
This wasn’t self sacrificial holier than thou stuff, but a recognition that we have better lives if we and those around us are happier, getting the support they need if and when they need it, and making a reasonable but not onerous contribution according to means.
ok, maybe i went prolix a bit (3 pints o cider will do that ) 🙂
Hey, for me ties into having less people want to break into your place, steal your kit so they can feed their kids.
Has me thinking that by the next election the ALP should trying to own the political definition of the word aspiration.
My overall take out from that gathering people are still in one of the stages of grief…but they are thinking the why’s and wherefores of the election loss through. At this stage….encouraging. 🙂
Nicholas, the Commonwealth could also use its powers to buy State Government-issued bonds. These could be purchased at the lowest discount rate and the proceeds used to finance investments in physical and social infrastructure by the States. This would have a very direct stimulatory effect and would not harm the financial standing of the States. Effectively, the Commonwealth would be making its credit available to the States.
imacca….I had a good if also short conversation with Marles’ adviser and a couple of the more substantial luminaries that were present. I think the road is stony and steep, but we have taken the first steps.
Nice report on Perth proceedings, imacca and briefly. Interesting that Albanese is choosing to conduct his listenings in the pub, as opposed to Bill Shorten who chose large seated rooms, drinks not allowed. I guess a more convivial atmosphere is a good thing.
Albo should have done a bit of DJing though. 🙂
Nicholas
One thing the states could do is not exempt inheritance from stamp duty.
briefly,
I think the road is stony and steep, but we have taken the first steps.
https://youtu.be/rDEBJpavCjc
🙂
Kevin Rudd gets a Companion of the Order of Australia in the Queens Birthday Honours list:
If Kevin Rudd were ever going to accede to membership of the Order of Australia, it was going to be on his terms. And so it is today.
Australia’s 26th prime minister has finally accepted a nomination to become a Companion of the Order of Australia, the highest award within the civilian honours system.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kevin-rudd-dedicates-order-of-australia-honour-to-our-indigenous-brothers-and-sisters-20190608-p51vsi.html
Congratulations, Kevin.
“briefly,
I think the road is stony and steep, but we have taken the first steps.”
Yup, but its the way back. 🙂
And we are up for it.
Sadness though that part of the way back is going to be actually working out how to effectively “market” the kind of policy the country needs in the face of a lot of the bullshit that went on at the last election.
And i think that is going to be in the context of a significant recession in the next 12 months where the Coalition does not have the fiscal flexibility to support employment that an ALP govt would have had because the ALP would have improved, not further fwarked, the revenue base. A time of crisis and opportunity to navigate.
One hopes that Rudd’s critics can now see what a mighty job he did in toppling the Tories in 07, unseating the iconic Howard in the process. It ain’t easy to beat the Establishment.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embarrassed-pollster-ripped-up-poll-that-showed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html
Interesting
In a recession the federal government automatically has more fiscal flexibility because the domestic private sector is cutting its spending, which creates more non-inflationary fiscal space for the government.
“which creates more non-inflationary fiscal space for the government.”
Which is somewhat meaningless when the Govt are economic illeratii obsessed with Surplus, Tax Cuts and Spending Cuts.
imacca @ #315 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 10:31 pm
Yes, I read that earlier tonight. Lonergan. I wonder who he was doing polling for? It certainly wasn’t Labor. They were being led up the garden path by Galaxy. Could have been the Liberals because they were getting similar results but not telling anyone. Though if it was them, why was the poll ripped up? Maybe it was for Clive Palmer, but then he would have wanted it too. Hmm. Strange.
imacca @ #317 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 10:39 pm
And politics. And winning elections.
I think the road is stony and steep, but we have taken the first steps.
Bit of a change from “We are fucked.”
Not complaining or anything, but I just wish Briefly would stabilize his misery levels so we can all relax.
Just shows poll herding definitely did happen.
Fess:
“Says someone who doesn’t seem to have realised that the federal Labor leader is from the Left faction and the Senate Labor leader is also from…the Left.”
The puppets will always dance to the puppet-master’s tune. The tune won’t change until you get a new master.
DRDR @ #322 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 11:04 pm
It wasn’t ‘fess who wrote that, it was me, and your glib reply is meaningless and tawdry. Quit while you’re behind.
Commiserations to the Matildas. 🙁
Bushfire Bill says:
Sunday, June 9, 2019 at 10:56 pm
I think the road is stony and steep, but we have taken the first steps.
Bit of a change from “We are fucked.”
Not complaining or anything, but I just wish Briefly would stabilize his misery levels so we can all relax.
Bushfire, unless we fight hard and smart, we will lose. We are at a considerable disadvantage now. The Liberals should be considered the favourites. We have won just a single election in the last 23 years and have lost 4 on the trot. There is absolutely no certainty that we will be successful. Wherever we look we find enemies. We need to rally our numbers, bring ourselves together and then bring the country with us. It is not going to be easy.
I had a brief conversation this evening with one of the wisest heads in WA Labor. She is really revered in the Party. She offered the opinion that Labor should merge with the Greens. I said I’d be in favour of that too, but that the Greens were determined to destroy Labor and that we’d soon Split again. She agreed. The Greens are an obstacle to Labor’s success. We have to win in spite of them. We have to fight both the Liberals and the Greens.
We also agreed that the Right have created a quasi-tyranny here, and we have to recognise just how ruthless they actually are. We expect things will get worse for all those who oppose, obstruct or confront the Right, or who try to tamper with their works.
I think the realism is back, at least in the minds of some.
briefly @ #324 Sunday, June 9th, 2019 – 11:46 pm
And she believed you? Hilarious!
Well, way to sabotage the party, I guess.
Hi from (the outskirts of) Budapest.
I have travelled from Frankfurt today, and this is train number 3. However, at all times I have had better internet connectivity than I get from my ADSL2 connection in Australia, after 4pm in the afternoon – the time the kids get home from school?
I worry Australia is now so isolated from the rest of the world that most of us have no idea about what we are missing out on.
Until we know the extent to which pollsters had raw results with Liberal in front and, in response, finessed the results, then no analyis is complete.
Hello from just outside Woy Woy, where there is a train station and sometimes you have to catch 2 trains to get somewhere, and yes, the internet speeds are crap here, and I damn well wish Labor would keep pushing it in the faces of the Coalition, whether it’s more than enough to download ‘movies’ or not!
Obviously Dastyari had to go. He was too effective against the Libs in Estimates.
C@tMomma,
I am actually far more likely to be just outside Woy Woy than just outside Budapest 😀
But, I think Labor needs to find a way to show how much behind the rest of the world Australia is.
Caveat: It matters diddly squat what Labor says. No one in any media, mainstream, Crikey, IA, Guardian, Saturday paper, will ever do anything but criticise Labor.
Corollary: Labor cannot cut through, no matter what they do.
Lemma: Labor and social democracy is stuffed for the next 12 years. And sorry, Greens and Social Alliance, and fellow travellers, that means you guys are stuffed too.
Bob Katter is the Coalition’s problem. He promised to support the Coalition if there was a hung parliament after the election.
So did Andrew Wilkie, btw! Some Progressive he is! 😡
C@tMomma,
Thanks for highlighting this. I did not know that Wilkie had promised to support the Coalition in the event of a hung parliament. Given he is a whistleblower supporter and former Greens candidate, this makes no sense.
Douglas and Milko,
How right you are. Authoritarian Populists are the flavour of the moment and Democratic Socialists are just scaring more people into their arms. 🙁
Though it was good to see a million people march in Hong Kong to protest against the heavy-handed Chinese government:
Over a million people marched through Hong Kong city streets on Sunday evening in a massive protest against a bill that would allow people to be extradited to mainland China.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/a-million-take-to-hong-kong-streets-to-say-no-to-beijing-20190610-p51w20.html
Though China’s heavy hand still has a negative presence there:
Violence erupted after midnight, as thousands of students attempted a sit-in outside Hong Kong’s legislative council after the march, but were dispersed by police in riot gear using pepper spray and batons.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Lonergan Research boss Chris Lonergan admitted tearing up a poll showing Labor was in a much worse position than widely believed because it was worried the results did not match other published polls.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embarrassed-pollster-ripped-up-poll-that-showed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html
Greg Jericho expounds upon the Coalition’s lies, damned lies and election-winning strategies.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jun/09/coalitions-lies-damned-lies-and-election-winning-strategies
Sam Maiden reports that the whistleblower who leaked the internal report and sparked last week’s police raids on the ABC insists he was trying to expose the willingness of politicians and Defence to throw the soldier under the bus to appease voters – not criticise the troops.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/09/sas-inquiry-whistleblower/
Sean Kelly urges the opposition to go hard in holding this government to account.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-is-a-dangerous-time-in-the-political-cycle-20190609-p51vx0.html
Amy Remeikis reports that the government’s income tax plan will gift Australia’s top income earners more than $33bn in benefits, according to a new economic analysis from the Australia Institute.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/10/coalitions-income-tax-plan-will-gift-highest-earners-33bn
If there are to be press freedoms, we must look to and criticise the silencing and prosecution of Western journalists, writes Daniel Safi.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/media-organisations-need-to-speak-up-in-support-of-whistleblowers-and-press-freedom,12788
Part of the pension income test should be reviewed to better reflect Australia’s record low interest rates, according to federal Labor. But new Human Services Minister Anne Ruston says she has already sought advice on whether any changes are necessary in light of this week’s interest rate drop.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6207387/minister-checking-pension-test-rates/?cs=14329
Bob Katter has been recorded taking a membership pledge for far-right “western chauvinist” group, the Proud Boys, but has dismissed his actions as “larrikinism”. The guy’s demented!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/09/bob-katter-pledges-allegiance-to-far-right-group-but-dismisses-it-as-larrikinism
Kirsty Needham reports that over a million people marched through Hong Kong city streets last night in a massive protest against a bill that would allow people to be extradited to mainland China.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/a-million-take-to-hong-kong-streets-to-say-no-to-beijing-20190610-p51w20.html
Dana McCauley reports that Albanese has lashed Victorian construction union boss John Setka for disparaging family violence campaigner Rosie Batty.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-declares-i-m-on-rosie-batty-s-side-20190609-p51vzi.html
Cara Waters examines the franchising scene as planned new laws come into effect.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/it-s-costing-us-millions-jack-cowin-hits-out-on-franchising-reforms-20190607-p51vqg.html
Melissa Cunningham explains how Victoria’s voluntary euthanasia laws will be brought into effect on June 19.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/pharmacists-at-the-alfred-to-mix-lethal-dose-and-hand-deliver-to-patients-20190523-p51qfa.html
The Guardian says that the UK’s archaic first-past-the-post system is alarmingly unfit for a multi-party age. Too right it is!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/09/our-archaic-first-past-post-system-alarmingly-unfit-multi-party-age
Greg Hunt has sounded a warning to medical specialists over “very excessive” fees after brain surgeon Charlie Teo defended charging large medical bills for risky procedures.
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/greg-hunt-warns-of-excessive-medical-fees-amid-dr-charlie-teo-debate-20190609-p51w06.html
The Age reports that a leaked government document has revealed the true cost of Peninsula Link, showing it would have been far, far cheaper for the state to have built the motorway itself.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/billions-more-leaked-document-reveals-true-cost-of-peninsula-link-20190609-p51vzs.html
Abortion is never something to be taken lightly, but it must be an option for women who don’t feel ready, for whatever reason, to start a family, writes Sarah Thomson in relating her own story.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/reproductive-choice-is-a-woman-s-right-i-don-t-regret-exercising-mine-20190609-p51w1e.html
Boris Johnson metaphorically ups the ante over Brexit, saying he would withhold payment of the country’s European Union exit bill to try and get a better deal – a move that drew an immediate rebuke from France.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/uk-should-refuse-to-pay-brexit-divorce-bill-says-pm-contender-johnson-20190610-p51w27.html
Netflix is poised to open its first Australian office and has started hiring local staff.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/netflix-sets-up-australian-outpost-as-streaming-battle-intensifies-20190607-p51vfq.html
Better than putting your finger down your throat, here is Amanda Vanstone’s effort about Albanese’s ”leftie leanings” being an albatross around his neck.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-leftie-leanings-are-an-albatross-around-his-neck-20190608-p51vsr.html
In plain English, David Cay Johnston shows how super rich business owners like William Ingraham Koch, one of the billionaire Koch brothers and Trump neighbour and supporter, can pocket vast sums without paying income tax.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/bill-koch-tax-dodges-of-the-american-super-rich-part-1/
There’s trouble ant the morgue!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/delays-give-new-morgue-a-grim-outlook-20190607-p51vjc.html
Cartoon Corner
Some redecoration by Matt Golding.
From an upset Pat Campbell.
Mark David lines up the Uber Tuber.
Zanetti and our wonderful national anthem.
Sewn Leahy celebrates Ash Barty’s win.
Alan Moir and our erstwhile guardian of democracy.
Jon Kudelka and our own new world.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e386d3bef67ea771dafa1def5f7ea0d4?width=1024
From the US
Trump snarls at press for not treating him as well as Obama — then whines he deserves a national holiday in his name
President Donald Trump kept up his attacks on the press on Sunday morning while complaining that he has done more for the country than former President Barack Obama and, therefore, he deserves a national holiday in his name.
Keeping up his steady drumbeat of hatred of the press — which he has already called “the Enemy of the People” today — Trump tweeted: “If President Obama made the deals that I have made, both at the Border and for the Economy, the Corrupt Media would be hailing them as Incredible, & a National Holiday would be immediately declared. With me, despite our record setting Economy and all that I have done, no credit!”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/06/trump-snarls-at-press-for-not-treating-him-as-well-as-obama-then-whines-he-deserves-a-national-holiday-in-his-name/
Douglas and Milko,
Yes, that factoid was in an article about Morrison’s election victory last weekend. Katter I could understand, but Andrew Wilkie!?! I hope his electorate note the fact.
Protesters Call Trump A Lazy Traitor After He Spends Sunday Golfing
After spending a day of his presidency golfing for the 196th time, Donald Trump greeted by protesters who called him lazy, a traitor, and called for his impeachment.
On Saturday, Trump made his 195th visit to a golf course as president. All but two of those visits have been to Trump owned golf courses. According to Trump Golf Count, the president’s trips to his golf courses have cost taxpayers an estimated $100 million. Trump has gone golfing once every 4.8 days during his presidency.
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/06/09/trump-lazy-protesters.html
Thank you BK.
How good is that? $33 billion for the people who need it most.
How good is that? Hitler was really only a larrikin.
Toorak Toff
‘One hopes that Rudd’s critics can now see what a mighty job he did in toppling the Tories in 07, unseating the iconic Howard in the process. It ain’t easy to beat the Establishment.’
I don’t think any of Rudd’s critics has denied this.
Boerwar @ #340 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 7:55 am
Yep, beating the crap out of people because they don’t agree with you, like the Proud Boys do, is just larrikanism, doncha know?
phoenixRED,
Good point:
Rep. Cicilline said on Fox News Sunday, “I don’t have any difficulty with those words (those spoken by Nancy Pelosi). It’s kind of rich to have the president complain about this when he began a campaign with ‘lock her up’ as his bumper sticker and led an effort to delegitimize the first African-American president.”
…Fox News Sunday had no response to the valid point about the absurdity of Donald Trump complaining about Pelosi suggesting that he be sent to prison. Unlike Hilary Clinton, Donald Trump appears to have committed crimes, and there is no escape from reality even on Trump’s cable news propaganda organ.
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/06/09/david-cicilline-trump-birther-fox.html
Boerwar @ #339 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 7:54 am
Boerwar @ #340 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 7:55 am
And so as the sun rises on the glorious reign of the United Pillagers and Despoilers – Australian Division – we welcome the possibility that Mr. Katter Esq. is weekly at risk of being eaten by a crocodile. This must be my consolation as the population increasingly rejoices in being part of the Anti Robin Hood movement.
Now for the purgative kindly offered by BK – Ms. A. Vanstones delightful essay.
What, please remind me, does the “A” stand for in relation to the aforementioned Ms. Vanstone?
Anyway, good night from a pretty warm Budapest: 26 degrees C at midnight.
I have all windows and doors to the balcony open. Expect several cats to be in the bed when I wake up – luckily I am not in the Carpathians – so am not expecting vampires to turn up, unless they are asking for directions on how to get back to Transylvania by the Magyar railways.
Lucky I have good internet, so that I can provide the accurate directions needed to speed them on their way.
Ray Sanderson
@sando88
I have heard reports that Centrelink are actually receiving phone calls from retirees and even pensioners asking when they get their ‘franking credit’ payments. Karma is approaching for Morrison and his crew.
5:42 PM · Jun 9, 2019 · Twitter Web Client
All the kerfuffle the media are kicking up about the raids is wearing a bit thin. If they had spent the last six years questioning the government instead of spending every waking hour hammering the opposition I’d probably support them. Not in this case. They supported the government and now they’ve been bitten. Suck it up prince/sse’s.
Paul Bongiorno
@PaulBongiorno
·
23h
What? According to the respected and hugely experienced Paul Kelly the AFP raid were not “intended to intimidate journalists or whistleblowers.” This takes cheerleading for the Liberals to a new level.
Good to see Albo continuing to call out the lies that won Morrison government instead of just caving in, saying Labor underperformed, and going back to the drawing board,
Oh,…wait….