I had a paywalled Crikey article on Friday on the religion factor in the election result, drawing on results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey. Among other things, it had this to say:
The results from the 2016 survey provide some support for the notion, popular on the right of the Liberal Party, that Malcolm Turnbull brought the government to the brink of defeat by losing religious voters, who appear to have flocked back to the party under Morrison. Notably, the fact that non-religious voters trusted Turnbull a lot more than they did Abbott did not translate into extra votes for the Coalition, whereas a two-party swing to Labor of 7% was recorded among the religiously observant.
The charts below expand upon the survey data featured in the article, showing how Labor’s two-party preferred has compared over the years between those who attend religious services several times a year or more (“often”), those who do so less frequently (“sometimes”), and those who don’t do it at all (“never”).
Some other post-election observations:
• Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports the looming Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the election will examine the three-week pre-polling period and the extent of Clive Palmer’s campaign spending. There is not, it would seem, any appetite to explore the debilitating phenomenon of fake news proliferating on social media, for which Australia arguably experienced a watershed moment during the campaign through claims Labor had a policy to introduce a “death tax”. This is explored in depth today in a report in The Guardian and an accompanying opinion piece by Lenore Taylor. That said, not all of the mendacity about death taxes was subterranean, as demonstrated by this official Liberal Party advertisement.
• As best as I can tell, all votes for the House of Representatives have been counted now. There was a fall in the official turnout rate (UPDATE: No, actually — it’s since risen to 91.9%, up from 91.0% in 2016), which, together with the fact that not all votes had been counted at the time, gave rise to a regrettable article in the Age-Herald last week. However, as Ben Raue at the Tally Room explores in depth, the turnout rate reflects the greater coverage of the electoral roll owing to the Australian Electoral Commission’s direct enrolment procedures. This appears to have succeeded to some extent in increasing the effective participation rate, namely votes cast as a proportion of the eligible population rather than those actually enrolled, which by Raue’s reckoning tracked up from 80.0% in 2010 to 83.2% – an enviable result by international standards. However, it has also means a larger share of the non-voting population is now on the roll rather than off it, and hence required to bluff their way out of a fine for not voting.
• The rate of informal voting increased from 5.0% to 5.5%, but those seeking to tie this to an outbreak of apathy are probably thinking too hard. Antony Green notes the shift was peculiar to New South Wales, and puts this down to the proximity of a state election there, maximising confusion arising from its system of optional preferential voting. The real outlier in informal voting rates of recent times was the low level recorded in 2007, which among other things causes me to wonder if there might be an inverse relationship between the informal voting rate and the level of enthusiasm for Labor.
Oakeshott Country:
Vale the great man, in so many ways. He was way ahead of his times, way ahead of public opinion. As I’ve said, always take your avatar with the utmost respect!
Of course the poor little rich kids at QLD uni and snobby enviromentalists of Ryan will not give their pv to labor.Labor green war, lets take the gloves off.
It’s not just that they have no concern for the working masses, it’s worse than that, they despise them, everything about them, the food they eat, the films they watch, the vehicles they drive.
That is why the reactionary faux left green movement appeals to them so much.It is and always has been a bourgeois wank with a core message of austerity on a scale vastly greater than anything the coalition proposes.
We are consuming too much, we need to tighten our belts, it’s unsustainable,we must worship mother earth or she will reign hell fire upon us, fuck it’s makes pentecostals look sane.
No wonder people living week to week with no rich mummy and daddy to pay the rent for them have concern about Labor hanging around with this freak show.
Whilever Labor keep flirting with this neo feudal quasi pantheist shit they are going to keep losing federal elections, whatever they gain in seats like Ryan will be trumped by losses elsewhere.
the alp green wars are a waste of time
both have an aversion to the conservatives
maybe a non aggression pact would be in order
Lucky Creed, there is no war between ALP and Greens. The only war raging on at the moment is the war of the Coalition against the Australian People…. and now the morons who returned the Coalition Government, especially via the preferences coming from One Nation and Palmer’s parties are going to suffer a hell of a nightmare…. The Greens are a breath of fresh air in comparison.
Lucky Creed
I can’t comment on Ryan but knowing similar areas in Melbourne, I agree there is an element of snobbery but I don’t think they despise the working masses, they are mostly too busy in their own four walls worrying about their next day at the polo or who will be appearing at the arts show, in terms of sport, and maybe Melbourne is just different but there are no shortage of poshy types following AFL clubs like the Dees or the Hawks or the Dons.
Lucky Creed, if the ALP was ever stupid enough to adopt your perspective on the environment I would switch to voting Greens 1 ALP 2.
Good Morning
This hearing with John Dean is interesting viewing from Congress.
Expect many rage tweets soon.
I am watching the CBS feed on YouTube if you want to watch.
Goof morning Dawn Patrollers.
Adele Ferguson unloads on the confronting week for whistleblowers, journalists and democracy.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/this-country-s-treatment-of-whistleblowers-has-strong-echoes-of-orwell-20190610-p51w9f.html
Richard Denniss explains why swingeing tax cuts are a bad bet on a wobbly future.
https://www.outline.com/wjDCWT
Greg Jericho declares that we have reached the bottom of the housing market but any rebound will be slow to come.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jun/11/we-have-reached-the-bottom-of-the-housing-market-but-any-rebound-will-be-slow-to-come
According to Alexandra Smith the NSW is applying a substantial first home owners assistance package.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-government-gives-up-850m-in-revenue-for-first-home-owners-20190610-p51w7y.html
Sam Maiden writes that fresh evidence of “double standards” has emerged amid claims Defence is picking and choosing which leaks it asks the police to investigate following AFP raids at the home of a journalist and the ABC.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/06/10/afp-raid-whistleblower-adf/
Eryk Bagshaw tells us that key Senate crossbenchers will demand the government come up with a plan to stop “abhorrent” energy price rises before supporting the Coalition’s signature $158 billion income tax cuts.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/centre-alliance-seeks-energy-plan-in-exchange-for-tax-cut-support-20190610-p51w7m.html
The Morrison Government clearly has no plans to deal with the chaos in our visa system, writes former Immigration Department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi and Kristina Keneally has signalled Labor’s intention to hold the Government to account for the chaos in it.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/keneally-exposes-visa-system-chaos-under-dutton,12789
The Liberal Party’s least-successful division, Victoria, will this weekend choose between a 62-year-old member of the political establishment and a 40-year-old challenger for the party presidency.
https://www.outline.com/npNHRS
Daniel Wild, director of research at the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), says the Abbott government’s 2014 decision to end plans for a price on carbon was one of the think tank’s greatest achievements in shaping Australian public policy. The New Daily has a close look at that shady organisation.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/10/institute-of-public-affairs/
Efforts to relocate public servants from Canberra are “absurd” and should target Australia’s largest capital cities instead, former leading bureaucrat Dennis Richardson says.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6209186/former-aps-chief-on-attack-over-absurd-plan-to-relocate-jobs-from-canberra/?cs=14225
The AFR says that the Morrison government is examining which public infrastructure projects can be rolled out faster than scheduled to support the economy through a soft patch.
https://www.outline.com/tq5VHc
Shane Wright is not at all impressed with the government’s eschewing of support for R and D.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-so-clever-country-more-for-massage-tables-less-for-bright-ideas-20190610-p51w3k.html
More than 80 per cent of saving accounts are paying less than the inflation rate, or a negative real interest rate. Surely this needs to be factored into aged pension rate calculations.
https://www.outline.com/dnS7fV
Endometriosis sufferer Rose Dooley uses her experience to shine a light on the cost of specialist medical treatment.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/when-i-said-i-didn-t-have-insurance-the-receptionist-s-face-went-blank-20190610-p51w4z.html
Telecommunications expert Paul Budde explores the viability of 5G deployment.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/what-reaching-peak-telecom-means-for-5g,12793
The AFR looks at the issues facing the government when it comes to the gig economy.
https://www.outline.com/B9m4pt
Environmentalist Jeff Angel says that the government should ditch the jobs v environment slogan and get on with doing both.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ditch-the-jobs-v-environment-slogan-and-get-on-with-doing-both-20190610-p51w8n.html
David Crowe reports that Morrison will commit $2.8 million to expand mental health services to school students amid calls for stronger action by all governments to fix a “mess” in the health system.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-promises-2-8m-to-expand-mental-health-services-to-schools-20190610-p51w9s.html
Ed Husic has called on both major parties to reach a fake news “armistice” before the next election, arguing that political scare campaigns are in neither’s best interests.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/let-s-disarm-the-trolls-husic-calls-for-fake-news-armistice-20190610-p51w97.html
The Age examines the huge cost of Melbourne’s massive transport construction program.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/big-projects-bigger-bills-massive-construction-boom-comes-at-a-cost-20190610-p51w5d.html
Sarah Danckert explains how ASIC has been dealt a significant legal defeat after the Federal Court threw out market manipulation allegations it had made against a trader working for National Australia Bank over a multibillion-dollar spike in trading on the ASX 200.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-loses-manipulation-case-against-nab-contractor-over-10-billion-bump-20190610-p51w6p.html
Peter Hartcher believes Hong Kong’s last fight is lost.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hong-kong-s-last-fight-is-lost-20190610-p51w5e.html
Involuntary celibates are wrong and delusional, but we should still be paying attention to what this level of desperation tells us about young males, says The Washington Post.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/incels-are-the-bleeding-edge-of-a-generation-of-struggling-men-20190610-p51w7n.html
There’s quite a smell emanating from this story about Jared Kushner.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/jared-kushner-real-estate-cadre-goldman-sachs
Another dummy spit from Trump as he unloads upon the “destructive” Federal Reserve.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/very-destructive-trump-growing-frustrated-with-us-fed-20190611-p51wcq.html
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir gets right to the point on intimidation of the press.
David Rowe unpicks the new Coalition economic policy development framework.
Cathy Wilcox has another crack at Morrison and Dutton.
From Matt Golding.
Two crackers from Mark David.
John Shakespeare bestows an apt award to Ash Barty.
Where’s Zanetti coming from here?
Jon Kudelka with Hanson at the negotiation table.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/49c92a80ef83de7464aa515d74802d5c?width=1024
From the US
Mavis Davis says:
Monday, June 10, 2019 at 10:18 pm
frednk:
[‘..and you want me to explain it in simple terms.’]
Yes, please, if you would, in under 5,000 words.
A bond can be traded on a secondary market. Unlike a bank deposit it is not owned by a particular entity.
There is a formula to work out what it is worth; it takes into account when the interest is paid by the bond and the money tied up in the bond, based on the desired yield. I cannot remember the formula, exams done. Google helped me out:
Value = F/(1+r)^T + sum(C/(1+r)^t))
r = desired yield
F = face value of bond
C =Coupon rate
t = number of periods
T = time to maturity
There are a lot of words said in that formala
Adele Ferguson unloads on the confronting week for whistleblowers, journalists and democracy.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/this-country-s-treatment-of-whistleblowers-has-strong-echoes-of-orwell-20190610-p51w9f.html
Maybe we should start calling Scott Morrison ‘Big Daddy’? Or, ‘Big Daggy’? Or, the ‘Big Pig’? Before the Thought Police come after us and heavy us to stop, that is. 😐
Morning all and thanks BK. That look into the IPA is interesting. They might once have been concerned with public affairs, but now seem to devote all their efforts into preventing action on global warming.
Interesting article about Ed Husic. Looks like he has become an ‘Ambassador at Large’ and Labor’s Conscience instead of having a shadow ministerial position. Smart.
Bongiorno
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/10/scott-morrison-press-freedom-abc/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190611
Dutton’s Home Affairs Dept is creating the very problem that he tries to blame on Labor.
Abul Rizvi, fmr Imm Dept Sec.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/keneally-exposes-visa-system-chaos-under-dutton,12789
@lizzie
“A pumped-up Scott Morrison had some streetwise advice for his jubilant party room after their miraculous election win.”
Pukes
“It begs the question, what is the opposition then?”
Are journalists playing dumb now?
Oakeshott Country @ #944 Monday, June 10th, 2019 – 11:49 pm
Combet didn’t have the rat cunning, the mean trickiness or the mendacity of Morrison.
Combet like everyone in the ALP leadership since Keating has been a cream puff in political terms – except Latham, who self destructed.
Mr Morrison didn’t quite say “the media is the enemy of the Australian people” to paraphrase Donald Trump, but he certainly believes the people’s right to know should be constrained as much for the government of the day’s political convenience as the national interest.
No, Big Daggy isn’t as subtle as a sledgehammer like Donald Trump. He’s more slippery with his words. Just as dangerous to democracy though.
How soon until we see something similar here?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/06/10/us-customs-border-protection-says-photos-travelers-into-out-country-were-recently-taken-data-breach/?utm_term=.7d613d3174ae
C@t
After posting that extract, I read about China’s political ‘justice system’, where nobody can escape trumped up charges. The two articles together do not make for happy reading.
@mswararriorLMS
ScoMo won’t answer questions about being sacked kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2019/06/08/loo… #auspol @AlboMP @MsVeruca @MichaelWestBiz @rationalbitch @anstap13 @margo694 @elliemail @Kynes3 @photo_journ @theprojecttv @MathsParty_MPA @Jarrapin @The_NDL @ArmidaleExpress @TenterfieldStar @GlenExaminer
Maybe I’m naive, but …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-11/police-raids-rex-patrick-claims-intimidation-home-affairs-boss/11196566
lizzie @ #971 Tuesday, June 11th, 2019 – 8:25 am
Yeah, doesn’t that just mean a new Coal-Fired Power Station?
lizzie @ #969 Tuesday, June 11th, 2019 – 8:22 am
Morrison has already flagged that he wants to introduce China’s Social Credit system to Australia.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/10/institute-of-public-affairs/
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/tim-costello-laments-aussies-who-see-trip-to-bali-as-fundamental-human-right-20190610-p51w7u.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/10/us/politics/mueller-judiciary-committee.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/06/10/afp-raid-whistleblower-adf/
The fresh evidence of “double standards” has emerged amid claims Defence is picking and choosing which leaks it asks the police to investigate following AFP raids at the home of a journalist and the ABC.
The leaked confidential report, prepared by Dr Samantha Crompvoets, uncovered allegations of a “disregard for human dignity” by some SAS soldiers and acts of “illegal violence” so serious it triggered a long-running secretive investigation into possible war crimes.
The money I pay to Crikey pays off again today. They have launched their investigative journalism project. It’s called INQ.
https://www.crikey.com.au/about-inq/
Morning all
BK
Appreciate today’s offerings!
Former Nixon-era WH counsel gives testimony to the House Judiciary Committee on the Mueller report.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-calls-john-dean-a-sleazebag-ahead-of-his-congressional-testimony-on-the-mueller-report/2019/06/10/dc22f960-8b71-11e9-adf3-f70f78c156e8_story.html?utm_term=.7d2beb4eb512
Trump’s predictable, pitiable response? He’s a ‘loser’. You have to laugh.
Fess
Trump is so predictable. Lol!
Cartoon by Cathy Wilcox:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8u0ck3UIAExIOC?format=jpg&name=large
https://www.crikey.com.au/about-inq/?utm_campaign=marketing&utm_medium=email&utm_source=crikey.com.au&term=INQ.launch
INQ is Crikey’s Inquiry Journalism unit.
INQ’s mission is investigative reporting that digs, questions, probes, analyses and scrutinises — relentlessly and without fear or favour.
INQ is part of Crikey, Australia’s most vigorously independent news publication, with almost 20 years of fearless journalism under its belt.
Something happening for Democratic Candidates from the aggressive left.
https://join.tyt.com/pledge/
Sorry it’s the only copy I can find to link to.
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6203354/allison-mccarneys-in-need-of-support-post-brain-surgery/
John Lyons keeping up the fight for journalism independent of the government with this opinion piece in The Washington Post today:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/06/10/australia-is-war-with-journalists/?utm_term=.03794b1a103a
HH
It would have been useful if Crikey had revealed ‘what was under the rocks’ before the last election. Pty.
Once again liberals fail
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6203354/allison-mccarneys-in-need-of-support-post-brain-surgery/
Victoria @ #982 Tuesday, June 11th, 2019 – 8:53 am
He has a very limited vocabulary.
c@t
Trump is good at repetition. Works well for his low brow followers.
New documents show why ScoMo was sacked:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/06/08/fresh-documents-morrisons-sacking/15599160008252
Zoidlord @ #987 Tuesday, June 11th, 2019 – 9:01 am
But hey, let’s vote against non-existent ‘Death Taxes’ to be brought in by Labor and for Franking Credits we will never get.
On Combet: About a week ago, I was watching an episode of ABC’s “You Can’t Say That”, this one focusing on ex-politicians. Greg Combet was one of the interviewees, and throughout he struck me as a really genuine, intelligent, and friendly guy, but also as someone who had been left totally exhausted and disillusioned by the bastardry that politics often requires.
I’d add too that I’d seriously recommend anyone who hasn’t watched that episode to check it out. Seeing people like Combet, Sam Dastyari and Wyatt Roy being totally candid and unrestrained by the need to stay on message was fascinating. It definitely gave me a whole lot more respect for Dastyari and Roy, the latter of whom comes across as surprisingly insightful and self-aware when not simply parroting the Liberal party line.
Victoria @ #989 Tuesday, June 11th, 2019 – 9:04 am
Yes. He’s an expert at triggering the animal brain in humans.
Asha:
I’ve always been a fan of Combet and always thought he’d make a good PM.
Asha Leu
I saw that too, and agree about Combet & Dastyari (who is a great loss to politics, IMV).
On the subject of past politicians, Nick Minchin got some sort of gong. Shameless.
.
So Mike Pezzullo rings a senator and tells him he needs to “reflect” on his criticisms of the AFP raids. Under what circumstances is this ok.? Does anyone else think this is untenable.?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-11/police-raids-rex-patrick-claims-intimidation-home-affairs-boss/11196566