The first pollster to put its head above the parapet post-election has been Essential Research, though it’s sensibly refraining from treating us to voting intention results for the time being. As reported in The Guardian yesterday, the pollster’s fortnightly survey focused on what respondents did do rather than what they would do, finding 48% saying their decision was made well in advance of the election, 26% saying they made up their mind in the weeks before the election, and 11% saying they made up their mind on polling day. Lest this seemingly high rate of indecision be cited as an alibi for pollster failure, the historical results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study – which you can find displayed on page 18 here – suggest these numbers to be in no way out of the ordinary.
The poll also found those who decided in the final weeks came down 40% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor. However, assuming the sample for this poll was as per the Essential norm of between 1000 and 1100 (which I hope to be able to verify later today), the margin of error on this subset of the total sample would have been over 5%, making these numbers statistically indistinguishable from the almost-final national primary vote totals of 41.4% for the Coalition and 33.3% for Labor. This goes double for the finding that those who decided on election day went Coalition 38% and Labor 27%, remembering this counted for only 11% of the sample.
Perhaps notable is a finding that only 22% of respondents said they had played “close attention” to the election campaign, which compares with results of between 30% and 40% for the Australian Election Study’s almost equivalent response for “a good deal of interest in the election” between 1996 and 2016. Forty-four per cent said they had paid little or no attention, and 34% some attention. These findings may be relevant to the notion that the pollsters failed because they had too many politically engaged respondents in their sample. The Guardian reports breakdowns were provided on this question for voters at different levels of education – perhaps the fact that this question was asked signifies that they will seek to redress the problem by weighting for this in future.
Also featured are unsurprising findings on issue salience, with those more concerned with economic management tending to favour the Coalition, and those prioritising education and climate change favouring Labor and the Greens.
In other post-election analysis news, the Grattan Institute offers further data illustrating some now familiar themes: the high-income areas swung against the Coalition, whereas low-to-middle income ones went solidly the other way; areas with low tertiary education swung to the Coalition, although less so in Victoria than New South Wales and Queensland.
Another popular notion is that Labor owes its defeat to a loss of support among religious voters, as a hangover from the same-sex marriage referendum and, in what may have been a sleeper issue at the cultural level, the Israel Folau controversy. Chris Bowen said in the wake of the defeat that he had encountered a view that “people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them”, and The Australian reported on Saturday that Labor MPs believed Bill Shorten blundered in castigating Scott Morrison for declining to affirm that he did not believe gay people would go to hell.
In reviewing Labor’s apparent under-performance among ethnic communities in Sydney and Melbourne, Andrew Jakubowicz and Christina Ho in The Conversation downplay the impact of religious factors, pointing to a precipitous decline in support for Christian minor parties, and propose that Labor’s promised expansion of parental reunion visas backfired on them. Intended to capture the Chinese vote in Chisholm, Banks and Reid, the actual effect was to encourage notions of an imminent influx of Muslim immigrants, “scaring both non-Muslim ethnic and non-ethnic voters”.
However, I’m not clear what this is based on, beyond the fact that the Liberals did a lot better in Banks than they did in neighbouring Barton, home to “very much higher numbers of South Asian and Muslim residents”. Two things may be said in response to this. One is that the nation’s most Islamic electorate, Watson and Blaxland, recorded swings of 4% to 5% to the Liberals, no different from Banks. The other is that the boundary between Banks and Barton runs right through the Chinese enclave of Hurstville, but voters on either side of the line behaved very differently. The Hurstville pre-poll voting centre, which serviced both electorates, recorded a 4.8% swing to Labor for Barton, and a 5.7% swing to Liberal for Banks. This may suggest that sitting member factors played an important role, and are perhaps of particular significance for Chinese voters.
Its actually
“Blessed are the poor in spirit,
for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. ”
Christ’s view on the poor was exposed was Mary Madeline was criticised for spending up big on rubbing oil (“This perfume could have been sold at a high price and the money given to the poor.”):
“”Why are you bothering this woman? She has done a beautiful thing to me. For the poor you always have with you, but not always do you have Me.”
@swamprat
The Tories are facing a wipe-out according to the polls at the moment. In the Peterborough by-election held yesterday, they polled third (behind Labour and the Brexit Party) in a seat they narrowly lost in 201 7. Labour won the by-election with a slightly increased margin, despite the previous Labour MP Fiona Onasanya has gone to prison.
It’s Mary Magdalene, actually, Oakeshott Country.
Oakshott Country
“Christ’s view on the poor was exposed …”
You have taken one incident (relating to Mary Magdeline) and generalised it. It is more complex than the one incident that you chose.
A more general and important saying is:
“Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers of mine, you did for me’” (Matthew 25:40)
The blind receive sight, the lame walk, those who have leprosy are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, and the good news is proclaimed to the poor.” (Matthew 11:4-6).
Come, you that are blessed by my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world; for I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me, I was naked and you gave me clothing, I was sick and you took care of me, I was in prison and you visited me.’ (Matt 25:34-36)
There was a rich man who was dressed in purple and fine linen and who feasted sumptuously every day. And at his gate lay a poor man named Lazarus, covered with sores, who longed to satisfy his hunger with what fell from the rich man’s table; even the dogs would come and lick his sores. The poor man died and was carried away by the angels to be with Abraham. The rich man also died and was buried. (Luke 16: 18-25)
I tell you the truth, it is hard for a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven. Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. (Matt 9:24)
Matthew has “Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.”
Luke has “Blessed are you who are poor, for yours in the kingdom of God”
and a bit later “But woe to you who are rich, for you have already received your comfort.”
Or, the Madeleine, if you want to use that nomenclature.
Tristo
Yes both major parties had a bath!!
Labour 30.9% (-17.2)
Brexit Party 28.9% (n/a)
Conservatives 21.4% (-25.5)
Liberal Democrats 12.3% (+8.9)
Greens 3.1% (+1.3)
UKIP 1.2% (n/a)
Chirstian Peoples Alliance 0.5% (n/a)
English Democrats 0.5% (n/a)
SDP 0.4% (n/a)
Monster Raving Loony Party 0.3% (n/a)
Independent 0.3% (n/a)
Common Good 0.2% (n/a)
Renew 0.1% (n/a)
UK EU 0.1% (n/a)
Independent 0.0% (n/a)
Swing from Conservatives to Brexit Party: 27.2%
Swing from Labour to Brexit Party: 23.1%
‘swamprat says:
Friday, June 7, 2019 at 1:08 pm
I wonder what it is about UK Tories that remind one of Blackadder and cunning plans??’
OR
Hancock is a dead parrot.
Hey Briefly – it isn’t around the 40% mark that the greens need. The figure is closer to 15%…
Half of just over half.
For an example see what the conservative tail can do to the Liberal Dog…
Ms Buttrose could have chosen to resign.
The first Greens government, under their charismatic Prime Minister Di Natale, will get better than 50% of the 2PP.
A pair of well-dressed religious people came to the door. Apparently the cause of (and somehow also, the solution to) all the world’s problems is battles being fought in heaven. And I would be a fool to allow my wife (or the daughter I don’t have) to walk anywhere unescorted.
I understand now how Morrison can win an election. 🙁
If current polling figures are maintained at a General Election both the Tories and Labour will lose almost all their remaining Scottish seats to the SNP again. 🙂
And this is after the SNP Government has been in power in Holyrood for 10 years!!
Boerwar @ #1311 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 1:41 pm
What, so Morrison and Fletcher could choose an even tamer lapdog to replace her!?! Yeah, that would really work. Not.
@swamprat
The Labour Party won Peterborough only by a majority of 607 over the Conservatives 17, it voted 63% leave in the Brexit Referendum and it’s previous Labour MP went to prison. I say it is an impressive result that Labour won narrowly over the Brexit Party.
Bring back Richard II.
Tristo
It is surprising that Brexit did not do better if it was a 63% remain constituency.
It may encourage Labour to move to a more remain stance. Fence stradling is painful for the major parties.
It is obvious that brexit/remain is currently the major fracture in UK politics, except in Scotland which is overwhelmingly “remain”. There, the fracture is Scoxit (?) from the UK.
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6205246/christopher-pyne-joins-sa-uni-as-professor/?cs=9397
C@tmomma @ #1286 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 12:13 pm
It was a foolish plan to begin with.
Seems Labor have discovered a spine since they lost the unloseable election. Sadly the potato has bolted.
If by appointing Buttrose to head Aunty’s Board the Tories thought they had a shrinking violet, they were wrong. Ita has a lot of community respect and if they think she will turn her shoulder on what is a clear fetter on free speech, they’ve got another think coming.
Not sure if anyone has posted yet. Along with Ita’s comments, it seems that intimidation was definitely the name of the game.
How could Liberal and Labor Govts possibly allow this to happen ..??
The first Greens government, to be elected in 2022 after another paltry 40% of Australians wake up to themselves and vote Greens, will fix everything.
That will be only another 3 years after the first 27 years.
Global warming can just stop with all the impatience and wait another three years.
Prime Minister Di Natale will then enjoy political and policy heaven: always being 100% right, and being in a position to apply all those 100% correct policies all the time.
Forget Blue Moon.
Think Blue Heaven.
Vote 1 Greens!
“sonar,
As commented yesterday, Labor voted for these laws in the run-up to the election so they couldn’t be wedged on National Security in the election campaign by Morrison and Dutton. They likely fully intended to amend the worst aspects of the legislation upon coming to government. It’s just that the last bit of their plan didn’t quite work out the way they thought it would.”
or in other words, yes, Labor bears significant responsibility. Weasel words notwithstanding.
Search warrants demystified:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-is-a-search-warrant-and-how-do-police-apply-for-them-20190607-p51vg8.html
Can someone explain to me how on earth Tony Burke can be retained as MOOB following Labors catastrophic election loss ..???
The Rise, Fall and Subsequent Triumph of Thalidomide: Lessons Learned in Drug Development
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3573415/
I wonder whether there might be a similar revival of Vioxx? to be used under carefully controlled conditions (use of Thalidomode is under very strong controls relating to pregnancy, including abstinence in some cases)
[‘The AFP says in publicly-available guidelines that ministers or departments referring a matter to the AFP should notify the minister responsible for the federal police – presently Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton – if the execution of a search warrant “may have politically sensitive implications”. Mr Dutton said this week he was not told in advance about the searches at the ABC and Ms Smethurst’s home.’]
This has Dutton’s handiwork all over it. It goes without saying that he knew about it – an issue which should be pressed in Senate estimates.
That’s right, Rex — Labor would have cleaned up in northern Tasmania and central Queensland, if only opposition business had been better managed.
Rex Douglas @ #1324 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 3:15 pm
Oooh! Oooh! Pick me! Pick me!
Is it because because Australia does not have a functioning green party, or is it because because Australians are lazy, greedy, stupid and fearful?
Could be all of the above, I suppose.
“Among other things, the topics of negotiation are the order in which Government bills and other items of business are taken, the time allotted for debate, and the timing of Opposition business.” Barbecue stoppers one and all.
If Dutton does not want to know officially then one of his staffers is contacted by the staffer of the relevant minister.
Whisper whisper whisper.
Dutton is not ‘informed’.
The plausible denial cut off is in place.
The Good Thing is that this sort of democracy-destroying behaviour by the Coalition will be killed stone dead by the can-do Prime Minister Di Natale.
He is only 47 years old and should be good for at least another 15 elections.
So no real hurry.
I was reading recently that Enbrel (etanercept), used to treat a number of conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis and plaque psoriasis, has also been found to greatly assist those suffering dementia and stroke.
MD
Various drugs came and went during my Mum’s long decline from Alzheimer’s. None did anything more than very temporarily halting her decline. This was to 2004 when she died.
The attached link seems to show that etanercept may be yet another damp squib.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4451045/
William Bowe @ #1331 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 3:36 pm
Forgive me for daring to suggest Opposition tactics have a bearing on election results. Silly me !
Mavis
Are you recommending it for the use of any poster/s in particular?
Rex, you plainly don’t know what the manager of opposition business actually does.
William Bowe @ #1339 Friday, June 7th, 2019 – 3:56 pm
Are you suggesting the MOOB isn’t a senior contributor in formulating tactics to hold the Govt to account ?
I’m enjoying this. 🙂
With the weakening economy , big businesses tax cut not employing people , cost of living , electricity prices not improving for the better , the libs/nats rather than stimulating the economy by giving citizens more money to stimulate the economy , Australia goes into full-blown recession at the beginning of 2020
Could an Early election be possible late 2020, or any time in 2021
Morrison cannot be that insane to allow this government to go the full term
Morrison cannot be that insane to allow this government to go the full term
____
He’s insane enough to get completely sucked in by that Hillsong Pentecostal sect!
Rex, the manager of opposition business takes care of a bit of paperwork, and gets $27,500 extra salary for his trouble. It’s basically a bauble handed out to someone who is important for other reasons. To the extent that Tony Burke is a “senior contributor in formulating tactics”, it’s because of his position in shadow cabinet. If you had suggested he should be demoted from the front bench, I wouldn’t be mocking you right now.
Scott
Watching his smug smile right now, he’s confident that he will ‘reign’ as long as he likes.
Question without notice (or anything else for that matter).
Has Poll Bludger forum ever had the vast pleasure of a streaker ❓
Scott
Be careful what you wish for.
KayJay
I gather you’re volunteering? If so, I’ll just leave the room, thanks. 🙂
‘lizzie says:
Friday, June 7, 2019 at 4:11 pm
Scott
Watching his smug smile right now, he’s confident that he will ‘reign’ as long as he likes.’
Got happy clapping and everything:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9c1Beuo8z0