The first pollster to put its head above the parapet post-election has been Essential Research, though it’s sensibly refraining from treating us to voting intention results for the time being. As reported in The Guardian yesterday, the pollster’s fortnightly survey focused on what respondents did do rather than what they would do, finding 48% saying their decision was made well in advance of the election, 26% saying they made up their mind in the weeks before the election, and 11% saying they made up their mind on polling day. Lest this seemingly high rate of indecision be cited as an alibi for pollster failure, the historical results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study – which you can find displayed on page 18 here – suggest these numbers to be in no way out of the ordinary.
The poll also found those who decided in the final weeks came down 40% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor. However, assuming the sample for this poll was as per the Essential norm of between 1000 and 1100 (which I hope to be able to verify later today), the margin of error on this subset of the total sample would have been over 5%, making these numbers statistically indistinguishable from the almost-final national primary vote totals of 41.4% for the Coalition and 33.3% for Labor. This goes double for the finding that those who decided on election day went Coalition 38% and Labor 27%, remembering this counted for only 11% of the sample.
Perhaps notable is a finding that only 22% of respondents said they had played “close attention” to the election campaign, which compares with results of between 30% and 40% for the Australian Election Study’s almost equivalent response for “a good deal of interest in the election” between 1996 and 2016. Forty-four per cent said they had paid little or no attention, and 34% some attention. These findings may be relevant to the notion that the pollsters failed because they had too many politically engaged respondents in their sample. The Guardian reports breakdowns were provided on this question for voters at different levels of education – perhaps the fact that this question was asked signifies that they will seek to redress the problem by weighting for this in future.
Also featured are unsurprising findings on issue salience, with those more concerned with economic management tending to favour the Coalition, and those prioritising education and climate change favouring Labor and the Greens.
In other post-election analysis news, the Grattan Institute offers further data illustrating some now familiar themes: the high-income areas swung against the Coalition, whereas low-to-middle income ones went solidly the other way; areas with low tertiary education swung to the Coalition, although less so in Victoria than New South Wales and Queensland.
Another popular notion is that Labor owes its defeat to a loss of support among religious voters, as a hangover from the same-sex marriage referendum and, in what may have been a sleeper issue at the cultural level, the Israel Folau controversy. Chris Bowen said in the wake of the defeat that he had encountered a view that “people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them”, and The Australian reported on Saturday that Labor MPs believed Bill Shorten blundered in castigating Scott Morrison for declining to affirm that he did not believe gay people would go to hell.
In reviewing Labor’s apparent under-performance among ethnic communities in Sydney and Melbourne, Andrew Jakubowicz and Christina Ho in The Conversation downplay the impact of religious factors, pointing to a precipitous decline in support for Christian minor parties, and propose that Labor’s promised expansion of parental reunion visas backfired on them. Intended to capture the Chinese vote in Chisholm, Banks and Reid, the actual effect was to encourage notions of an imminent influx of Muslim immigrants, “scaring both non-Muslim ethnic and non-ethnic voters”.
However, I’m not clear what this is based on, beyond the fact that the Liberals did a lot better in Banks than they did in neighbouring Barton, home to “very much higher numbers of South Asian and Muslim residents”. Two things may be said in response to this. One is that the nation’s most Islamic electorate, Watson and Blaxland, recorded swings of 4% to 5% to the Liberals, no different from Banks. The other is that the boundary between Banks and Barton runs right through the Chinese enclave of Hurstville, but voters on either side of the line behaved very differently. The Hurstville pre-poll voting centre, which serviced both electorates, recorded a 4.8% swing to Labor for Barton, and a 5.7% swing to Liberal for Banks. This may suggest that sitting member factors played an important role, and are perhaps of particular significance for Chinese voters.
“Agreeing or disagreeing with a policy doesn’t equal seeking to form a coalition”
I didn’t say it did. I was trying to work out why you thought The Greens wanted to be in a coalition with Labor. If you were considering supporting particular policy as being ‘In a Coalition’ then I could have understood why you would think the Greens wanted to be in a Coalition with Labor.
But as it stands, given their vocal opposition to being in a Coalition or Alliance with Labor I don’t know why you think they wanted to be in one.
Astrobleme
Most of the time legislation passes through parliament with agreement from MP’s across the chamber and that is something which surprises partisan types when they first see it. But Adam Bandt has made it clear he wont do deals with a LNP government. That doesn’t mean they never vote for a government bill but Bandt has been clear as too who he thinks should be the government.
According to whom? The government, or a sane person?
They will give vastly different answers.
Astrobleme
Adam Bandt and other Green MP’s say they want to deal with a ALP government and wont deal with a LNP government.
” But Adam Bandt has made it clear he wont do deals with a LNP government. That doesn’t mean they never vote for a government bill but Bandt has been clear as too who he thinks should be the government.”
Well about 80% of the Greens voters think that too…
That doesn’t say anything about being in a Coalition or Alliance.
Jeebus on a biscuit, you lot are a parody of yourselves…
Yesterday!
Signed: Happily independent voter in the Reps. Labor 1st in the Senate, Greens 2nd.
“Adam Bandt and other Green MP’s say they want to deal with a ALP government and wont deal with a LNP government.”
I don’t know if this is true or not, but the Greens have obviously done deals with the Coalition
(I know, I know… The Greens have never ‘ACHIEVED’ anything)
Oh doGs. More Greens Wars. 🙁
Really, the Greens are not going to have much rational to contribute to anything until they own a couple of things.
1: They are NOT going to be a party of Govt any time in the near future. On climate change we just dont have the time to wait for that to happen…if it ever does.
2: They will have little or no influence on anything when the Coalition is on the Treasury benches.
3: They did fwark up, particularly by making Adani their “iconic” issue and tapping into the fears of people in marginal seats in QLD. That hurt the ALP biggly. This election was probably one where we have about the worst possible outcome for the environment and the Greens have to own their part in that.
Can say fer sure that the ALP has some hard lessons to LEARN from the 2019 result. So do the Greens.
” But Adam Bandt has made it clear he wont do deals with a LNP government. That doesn’t mean they never vote for a government bill but Bandt has been clear as too who he thinks should be the government.”
“Adam Bandt and other Green MP’s say they want to deal with a ALP government and wont deal with a LNP government.”
Ohhhhh I see…. You are making a distinction around the phrase ‘do a deal’.
I don’t really see what the relevance of that is.
Astrobleme
I have seen Adam Bandt say it on more than one occasion, usually during election campaigns.
Not sure what that has to do with whether the Greens are achieving anything.
“So do the Greens.”
They certainly do. But I doubt they will…
HOWEVER, with aourd 10% of the vote it is likely they will persist with about 12 Senators from the next election. That’s well positioned to effect change.
Is it possible to say that the ALP didn’t run a great campaign AND that some of the Green’s actions which were aimed at increasing their vote probably resulted in the ALP loading votes.
Astrobleme
To form an alliance or coalition requires some kind of deal or agreement outlining shared objectives.
“Not sure what that has to do with whether the Greens are achieving anything.”
Various people here like to claim the Greens have never achieved anything. Or are ineffectual. Or will never influence Govt. Etc…
“Is it possible to say that the ALP didn’t run a great campaign AND that some of the Green’s actions which were aimed at increasing their vote probably resulted in the ALP loading votes.”
Yup
Fuck, this Greens/Labor crap is destroying this blog.
Astrobleme @ #495 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 6:45 pm
Not really. The Greens were demanding exactly the same thing again this year.
Blobit
“Is it possible to say that the ALP didn’t run a great campaign AND that some of the Green’s actions which were aimed at increasing their vote probably resulted in the ALP loading votes.”
If you viewed voting as a zero-sum game, you would be correct, but preferential voting means it’s a bit different.
You should probably say ‘possibly’ and that the Primary votes the Greens gained from Labor would have gone back on preferences anyway.
Very hard to prove your claim.
“Not really. The Greens were demanding exactly the same thing again this year.”
C@t I sent you two articles where RDN specifically ruled out an agreement/alliance/coalition
“Fuck, this Greens/Labor crap is destroying this blog.”
Yes!
So I will leave now!
adrian @ #516 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 7:01 pm
I know I shouldn’t reply, and I agree with you about the blog becoming unbearable, however, when The Greens’ partisans come on here every day since the election and refuse to take ANY of the blame for Labor’s election loss due to their own easily identifiable actions and statements, then what are you supposed to do? Let them get away with it!?!
I have pondered long and hard whether they should just be allowed to take over PB and everyone who supports Labor let them get on with their ego stroking. Then I think that that isn’t the answer either. I realise they are delusional, so I try and counter it with a sane and rational analysis of the facts, as imacca has just done as well. But you know what? The Greens’ believers just don’t do sane and rational argument. Instead they do the equivalent of, ‘Your grandmother wears army boots!’ As they stick their tongue out at anyone who supports Labor.
AND THEY COME HERE AND DO THAT EVERY SINGLE DAY!
I’m simply trying to forestall it for the next 3 YEARS!
*sigh*
Astrobleme @ #519 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 7:05 pm
So I imagined all that talk about how The Greens would ‘muscle up’ to Labor WHEN they were in government, telling them what to do and how to do it?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/17/greens-pressure-labor-with-pre-election-push-to-tackle-climate-and-land-clearing
May as well have been an Alliance/Coalition again.
“Very hard to prove your claim.”
Indeed. My view is though that there are a reasonable number of people in mining seats who ARE willing to vote either LNP or ALP. They’re on the right of the ALP spectrum, to be sure.
Their votes are primarily driven by employment considerations when they vote for the ALP. The Greens actions would have been enough to push those people to preference the LNP above the ALP.
Why? Partly because their is a tendency to view Greens policies and those of the ALP being somewhat aligned, even where it isn’t the case. The other party was the Green’s actions meant the ALP felt it had to adopt a more explicitly environmentally active policy than it might have done. That would have turned off some of the ALP right voters.
The” Chinese” vote, it may be a fair bit harder to quantify than people think.In greater Brisbane for eg there are fair numbers of Chinese living in just about every corner of the greater urban sprawl, even way out in the provinces where I reside there are a decent number of Chinese.
Yes there are a couple of suburbs where there are large concentrations of Chinese like Sunnybank but the problem is that a significant majority of Chinese do not live in or around these suburbs and also those that do might have somewhat different voting patterns to those that live in areas where Chinese are not so heavily concentrated so just looking at postcodes and booths may well be misleading.
An AFP raid on the ABC right now is trashing some of the most basic institutions of our democracy and all some people here can talk about is Labor Greens. Get over yourselves.
I assume those responsible for the worst aspects of the Labor campaign are circling the wagons trying to blame the Greens for defeat so they do not lose their jobs. If they keep their jobs the Liberals will be in power till the Arctic has melted.
I think Bill Shorten purposely lost the election, because he is a closet Green and was never really acting in Labor’s interests. The voters knew it for 6 years ….. that’s why his PPM stats were always so poor. If there’s one thing voters don’t like it’s the Greens.
I suspect that the real powers in the NSW ALP Right Wing are also closet Greens attacking Labor’s interests from within.
I think when you discuss any ethnic group a distinction needs to be made between immigrants and those born here.
The subsequent generations are growing up in a very different environment to the initial one.
Socrates @ #525 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 7:24 pm
Well said.
The Age editorial on the AFP raids, released one hour ago:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/media-must-report-without-fear-or-favour-20190605-p51uv9.html
“Socrates says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 7:24 pm
An AFP raid on the ABC right now is trashing some of the most basic institutions of our democracy and all some people here can talk about is Labor Greens. Get over yourselves.”
Yep it’s bad. Not really surprising though, given the degree the AFP seems to have been politicised. Would have been nice if the press had made more of an issue about it before.
Best way to stop this happening is to get someone other than the LNP elected.
Hola Bludgers.
What in blazes is going on with the AFP and these raids on historical reporting? This is some scary shite.
Meanwhile back on planet earth the AFP raid goes on. Some obvious questions:
1. Who authorised it?
2. Who signed the warrant?
3. What happens to material other than the Afghan story that they read?
4. Who decided to raid the ABC on State of Origin night when media is distracted?
5. Still no comment Ita Buttrose?
6. What is the real motivation? I assume something personal given that security is a smokescreen with Aussie troops no longer in Afghanistan. Something on Dutton? Hastie involvement?
Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 6:43 pm
“The Greens are only interested in doing deals with the ALP or replacing the ALP. ”
remember when The Greens dealt with the Coalition and everyone here chucked a massive spaz about it…
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-clinch-a-deal-with-coalition-on-senate-voting-reform/news-story/6a7f728b2fc00d3a1e1968fed20edee6
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/14/labor-rebukes-coalition-for-siding-with-greens-on-opt-out-superannuation-life-insurance
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/03/greens-accused-of-selling-out-over-deal-with-coalition-on-tax-transparency
Oh wait, I forgot. The Greens have never achieved ANYTHING
Are you arguing for or against the greens? If it’s for, I am not sure if listing there failures, that have nothing to do with the environment is such a good idea.
So media companies are concerned about the police raids.You have to laugh. The majority of their owners supported the coalition. Will they come out all guns blazing against the Morrison fascist regime or will they whimper away?
My bet is the latter.
Say goodbye to democracy boys and girls.
Dutton got voted back in; come on guys what did you expect.
“David William McBride was arrested by AFP officers at Sydney Airport in September last year, charged with the theft of classified documents ”
Maybe that should have been the time for the media to arc up.
One more thing on the AFP raid. Keating said at the Labor campaign launch that the Australian intelligence apparatus had been taken over by nutters. He was berated at the time but current events are proving him right, as usual.
Hi Bludgers.
Out of rehab (sarc) to see all is not good. Who would have thunk it?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/05/the-afp-media-raids-aim-to-suppress-the-truth-without-it-we-head-into-the-darkness-of-oppression
Socrates @ #532 Wednesday, June 5th, 2019 – 5:33 pm
7. And why now, years after the original reports?
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 7:09 pm
Fuck, this Greens/Labor crap is destroying this blog.
I have pondered long and hard whether they should just be allowed to take over PB and everyone who supports Labor let them get on with their ego stroking. Then I think that that isn’t the answer either….
_______________________________
Good to know who owns this blog!
Confessions
Number 7 is easy. They waited till after the election as instructed.
“Socrates says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 7:37 pm
One more thing on the AFP raid. Keating said at the Labor campaign launch that the Australian intelligence apparatus had been taken over by nutters. He was berated at the time but current events are proving him right, as usual.”
Indeed. Just shows that honesty isn’t the best policy to win elections. Imagine if the ALP had supported that statement. They would have been crucified (even more so).
Also why it’s hard to have a huge amount of sympathy for the media. Maybe if they had actually considered that statement rather than rushing for the gotcha moment.
Was McBride selling these documents to a foreign power?
Was that foreign power the ABC?
Was McBride whistle blowing?
Soc:
Quite so. I should’ve put a sarcasm emoji at the end of that question 🙂
“Who signed the warrant?”
Martin Kane, as per the image posted on Twitter.
Uhlmann is right. Labor need to re gain the support of all those workers who have been voting against their class interest by voting for the UAP and PHON et al. The problem for Labor is not the Greens. Their vote comes back via second preferences. Labor do need to get back to basics and to dump all the trendy identity politics issues that are poison to mainstream voters but attract the inner urban ‘elites.’ Seriously, who really thought that Higgins and Kooyong were never going to fall to Labor. Get back to basics, promote jobs and standard of living issues and watch Labor’s primary vote recover. It’s not rocket science. Oh and ban Briefly from any campaigning, as he is right off the reservation.
imacca says:
Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 6:56 pm
….
Can say for sure that the ALP has some hard lessons to LEARN from the 2019 result. So do the Greens.
Exactly. I would like to vent some more but people are obviously getting pretty sick of it.
What IS this crap as pre-game “entertainment” for the state of origin game?
BK
It works better with the sound off.
Meanwhile, in the real world we now have a total demolition of Morrison’s pre-election claim the LNP has created a “strong economy”.