So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.
Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.
As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.
There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.
We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.
Big Corporates around the world maintain their attack to ensure they continue to suck funds from the system. Tax cuts / minimization , subsidies, risky projects.
Thanks Clive and Adani, it was your turn. Are you going to put up any of your money?
Scummo doing his best in Solomon islands to get them in debt to World Bank ( US banks) rather than China. Donald might give you a pat on the head when he sees you.
lizzie @ #145 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 11:45 am
But! But! According to Clive Palmer it’s Labor that is sucking up to the Chinese Military. Not the Coalition. 🙄
Ujung padang
The home of the minaret!
Confessions @ #138 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 11:26 am
The best thing about the interview was that he never sounded like he was under pressure but he maintained a sensible approach to policy review without conceding anything. Made a number of good points persistently – I think we’re likely to hear a lot more about “doubling the debt”.
Talks very fluently and without bluster and showed an acute awareness o where Fran was trying to lead him. More than a match for our standard set of journos, I think.
Apologies to those who have already read this.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/june/1559397600/richard-denniss/morrison-election-what-we-know-now
Labor pledged $25M to start a Tassie AFL team but the Libs opposed it saying it would be better spent on hospitals.
“As Sport Minister I will be working closely with the Tasmanian Liberal government, the AFL, the Tasmanian footy public and respected figures like Rodney Eade to advance the cause of a Tasmanian AFL team and we will be doing so under the condition that it is the AFL, not the taxpayer, that should foot the bill.”
Oakeshott Country
says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 10:52 am
With the prospect of 3 years of reading here how KK has hit the potato Head for 6, can someone explain to me the difference between the two policies on asylum seekers. I know Labor will increase the quota but what are the other differences?
Honest question
___________________
It’s the vibe.
“And another little green pony sits in wreckage next to the 60 million dollar horse clive and yells, you need to go to the left.”
I’m not saying go to the left – I’m saying stick to your guns/agenda and do a better job in countering bullshit. Albo has made a terrible showing in his first week – basically saying “We have no convictions / we are party of principles; but if you don’t like them here are our other principles”. A key message needs to be that it is really unfortunate, but coal’s future is fucked. You can stick your head up your orifice and pretend this is not the case or you can plan for the future. Labor should be putting forward transition plans rather than backing coal. Labor should have called for a Hawle like national summit to acheive consensus on how we transition to a low carbon economy and adapt to the climate change we are already experiencing. The timelines on this need to be realistic – 2040 or 2050 rather then 2030 (even though targets for 2030 will be needed) and the Greens needs to stop demanding immediate cessation of the fossil fuel industry and possibky even ‘zero carbon’ targets (the biosphere can manage 2-3 tonnes CO2-equivalents/capita/year for a population of 7-11 billion, so Australia needs to drop from the current ~22 t CO2-e/capita/year – about a 90% reduction). The transition program should be used to reassure existing miners and mining community towns that they have a future, any may even involve lower emission /more efficient coal and natural gas as part of the transition. Clear and long term targets should be set, with provision to revise these as better data becomes available. If for example, the science re: the signifciance of forcings are revised or we do go into a period of lower solar activity, then targets can be adjusted – but targets should be based on best available science.
shorten could have run such a summit. Not sure about Albo.
The pressure to cave to the fossil fuel lobby is huge, but some major business and energy groups are calling for carbon pricing and/or NEG type policies, so they should be able to say they “We are responding to industry and not just wealthy donors”. Labor should not fold on this. If they do, their only hope of governing in the future will be in an informal or formal coalition with the greens because they will lose many urban seats for every queensland mining seat they win.
Note that whist the libs and labor both had national primary vote swings against them, Greens had a modest swing to them and outside of queensland this effect was quite marked in many seats. The greens get a lot more votes than the national party.
“The wreckage” will be worse if Labor decides to go right – they will curse themselves to 2 or more terms in opposition.
We have the complete and utter mal administration of the Australian commonwealth and Oakeshott Country wants to line up a same/same Green wedge over refugees.
sus future
Yes, I agree, but when Labor tried to
the Greens screamed blue murder.
sustainable future
The Green’s and the Liberal policy on climate is about the same. No action on climate change if can be used to wedge Labor. All that differs is hammer used to bring it home.
Why should labor bend over and allow this to continue?
The key to action on climate change is not a particular policy; it is to remove the wedge that both the Greens and the Liberals so enjoy.
lizzie says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 12:50 pm
…
the Greens screamed blue murder.
It is worse than that; they went up to Queensland and stomped all over their vegie gardens and then told the world they would insist Labor do the same.
In my view Labors response to this issue should be: We need to move out of coal but we will not support efforts to do so until their are sensible policies in place for the transition. We are not in government so we are not in a position to put such policies in place.
Oh no 3 Chinese warships docked Australia, where is Pauline Hanson ?!!!???
BRENDON Bolton has coached his last game at Carlton.
After crisis meetings on Monday morning, the Blues felt they had no choice but to end Bolton’s tenure 11 matches in his fourth season at the helm after a hefty loss to arch rival Essendon.
Bolton was set to address players and staff after 1pm on Monday at Ikon Park, in his last official duty as coach of the Blues.
He was told of the decision by Carlton powerbrokers after meetings on Monday morning, when Blues head of football Brad Lloyd was spotted at president Mark LoGiudice’s city offices.
The club is expected to hold a media conference later on Monday afternoon.
Oh noes ! Clive had us all looking for a secret Chinese airport in WA and meanwhile the blighters have snuck in on the East Coast 😆
frednk
You’ve been making a lot of sense lately. The election has fired you up. 🙂
The Greens plan is for Labor to become exactly like the Greens so that they can all share 10% of the vote while the Coalition keeps wrecking the joint.
How good are the Greens?
“Respected figures like Rodney Eade”
Obviously the sports minister has not heard the spray he gave Wil Minson on youtube.
@poroti
And stupid racist Queenslanders..
Zoidlord
That ‘Secret Chinese Airport’ and “invasion” ad from Clive was gob smacking. Amazed that sort of shit was legal during an election .
Holden Hillbilly…
Re: Bolton’s sacking as Carlton coach.
All too familiar story. What about accountability of the players? Should they not also be held to the performance at Carlton. Perhaps some of these players need to be terminated or dropped to the seconds for the rest of the season.
Nath
I think your right. From the answeres given, other than increasing the quota from o/seas that I think is practical and important, things haven’t changed from either side since Rudd2’s first day in office and he said no-one who arrives after today will ever step foot on Australia.
However it presents a wonderful opportunity for wedging by the coalition. Did Albanese give the job to KK because of her strengths or because it’s a poisoned chalice?
poroti @ #171 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:32 pm
Exactly. However, the AEC can do nothing about it. The law, such as it is, says that political parties can lie their faces off during an election campaign. It’s up to the voters to decide whether they are telling the truth or not and whether to believe them!
@poroti
Yeah Clive is just doing what liberals do oh right he was a liberal….
Well then, that’s that.
“Stepping up is showing up.” Has this come from a handbook on advertising?
Shall we be inspired every day of the ScoMo reign by a new folksy mantra to clutch to our hearts?
So it’s Lib-Lab policy to continue loading bullets into the environmental version of the AR-15
HH
Brad Scott?
Too early?
WB
Other than if ON overcomes the Nats, is there anyway that the AEC will look at Nat preferences in Hunter? Is it possible for this to be done as an academic study?
Nats preferencing ON vs ALP; my guess is at least 80% ON but it would be good to see the data
Rex Douglas @ #178 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:42 pm
Have you been working on your emotive imagery today, Rex Douglas? Bless. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #180 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:45 pm
How would you describe it ?
If labor go right, the coalition will go further. Labor is never going to win the murdoch media and should keep calling out the bias and collusion with LNP.
Climate polcy has fuck all to do with “wedging” labor – it’s about listening to scientists and not siding with US Republicans/murdoch in blocking action. We are now about two decades behind the rest of the world on this.
If labor caves in to sections of the Queensland fossil fuel lobby then they are a waste of space and deserve the terms in opposition coming their way. Alternatively they could cite BHP and RioTintos support for carbon pricing and NEG they can make it clear that they are responding to industry and no just doing the bidding of wealthy political donors. A policy of no new coal mines (unless ‘clean coal’ technologies are developed), and a 20-30 year transition plan for the fossil fuel sector/ electorates is what is needed.
Labor lost because people we not sure about Bill Shorten. If Albo takes labor to the right on climate policy he will never by PM and doesn’t deserve to be.
If Mick Malthouse couldn’t turn around Carlton what hope was there for a guy who had never even played? They should have just stuck with Mick. He would have built them up by now.
poroti @ #170 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:32 pm
Everything is legal if nobody has the balls to actually challenge it. Not that it matters, since challenging the ads in court would almost certainly take longer than the election campaign anyways. Lose-lose for everyone whose name isn’t Clive Palmer, I guess.
I’ll bet “Stepping up is showing up” is some pentacostal McPrayer-barn crap that’s about getting bums on seats and dollars into their business empire.
The vaccuousness of Moriscum refects mainstream Australia – he is the PM we deserve.
sustainable future @ #182 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:49 pm
The question now is how many Labor voters who say they’re serious about climate change policy will abandon the ALP …?
Rex Douglas @ #182 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:45 pm
Realistic.
And honestly, I think Labor needs to box a bit cleverer than they have been. As it has been stated elsewhere, by taking a confrontationist approach, as advocated by The Greens, the ALP only succeeded in getting people’s backs up. While instead, what they should have done is to allow Coal Mining to die a natural death and have a policy which recognises that Climate Change is real and needs dealing with.
Rex Douglas @ #184 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:49 pm
Says the guy from the party that just scared a million plus voters into the arms of the Coal loving Coalition.
Well you have to choose between Labor and Coalition at some stage, neither party is likely to do a lot on climate change in the near future, but the people need to be brought along, and that takes time to build.
We have 1 party proposing drastic action (although what exactly that action would entail I don’t know), but they achieve 10% of the vote, which last time I checked wasn’t enough to actually bring about the change we need.
The media might turn on each other instead. Oh joy!
Rex Douglas @ #181 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:45 pm
Well if you’re set on the firearms analogy, we’d be well past the point of loading it.
Continuing to mine and export coal is like indiscriminately firing straight up into the air on full auto while standing in the middle of a crowded inner-city block and dancing and cheering like a moron. People are going to die, it’s just a question of when. But who cares; guns are fun and popular so keep shooting, dancing, and cheering like a moron!
That’s how to describe it.
a r –
As you say, with the timeframes involved it’s pointless anyway, but on what grounds can they be challenged at all?
As a general concept it’s not against the law to lie to the public, and the electoral act specifically distinguishes between misleading campaigning (which it doesn’t touch) and misleading information about voting (which is an offence), so with the law as it is at the moment how could you challenge?
I hope people who want to punish the ALP with a thousand terms in opposition because it doesn’t do EXACTLY what they want it to are cool with the effect that the collateral damage is to the lives of millions of people, most of them with far fewer resources to see them through the dark days than possessed by the critics.
Why do they possess so little empathy for other people and for the biosphere that they think their opinions are of any worth to people who actually have to make hard political decisions. {end rant}
That’s strange, I must have missed the memo.
lizzie @ #195 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:59 pm
I think that’s because it’s fake news. Seems to me someone at Sky News has put together some old out of context statements in an attempt to sow division in the ALP. Chris Kenny seems to be associated with it.
Has ScoMo made any reference to rising seas in the Solomons?
Is that what the infrastructure funds are for? Sea walls?
Didn’t think so.
Jackol @ #193 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:58 pm
I’d give general defamation laws a try. If the attack ads are factually untrue and causing reputational damage, there should theoretically be a defamation case to answer?
ajm
Chris Kenny and Rex Douglas. What a combo!!!