Tidying up

Full preference counts should start unrolling over the next few days, but we’re probably still a fortnight away from being sure of the exact composition of the Senate.

So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.

Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.

As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.

There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.

We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

866 comments on “Tidying up”

  1. @Bishop Thomas Tobin

    A reminder that Catholics should not support or attend LGBTQ “Pride Month” events held in June. They promote a culture and encourage activities that are contrary to Catholic faith and morals. They are especially harmful for children

    As this not clear evidence of breaking laws of a county…

  2. Over the weekend, someone made a comment about the very few sitting days likely for the second half of 2019. I’m quite prepared to believe it, since it was so successful before the election, but is it true?

  3. They promote a culture and encourage activities that are contrary to Catholic faith and morals.

    After the likes of Pell and many of his catholic colleagues around the world have been tried and found guilty of child sex abuse (not to mention the findings from the royal commission here), the catholic church has some gall lecturing about a culture contrary to catholic morals!

  4. Poor little Pete seems quite upset about Kristina, apparently the least-qualified person on the shadow front bench. If Pete eventually got his potato head around his portfolio it should only take Kristina a day, maybe two max, to do the same.

  5. Thanks William, and thanks also to Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Adrian Beaumont for your rigorous efforts to try and quantify what just happened at the recent Oz Federal election, and also in wider contexts such as Brexit.

    I have a strong opinion that I want a progressive Australian federal government, but know very well that just shouting loudly that “everyone needs to just vote this way” will not achieve anything.

    If we want to change how people vote, we need to know how they think, and then do our level best to present them with a progressive version of policy that they feel they can vote for.

    We, as progressives, need to get out there each day and explain to the voters of Australia why we believe our way is the best way forward for Australia. We need to listen rather than admonish – what are your fears? What are your hopes?

    And, we need to compromise.

    If I was advising the Federal Liberal party at the moment, I would suggest that they bring all asylum seekers from Manus and Nauru to Australia, post-haste, saying than now they have defeated the evil ALP who were obviously going to go soft on Border Protection, they have the luxury of humanity, as obviously no further asylum seekers will arrive to Australia waters by boat.

    And I actually hope the Liberals do this. The concentration camps are a “great wrong” and I do not care who solves the problem, just do it.

    But what then:

    We need a global solution for people seeking asylum. There are many repressive regimes around the world, and people do need to be able to get away from the clutches of these regimes.

    However, if large numbers of asylum seekers arrive in Australia by boat, the majority of the Australian population will vote for the party that repulses these unfortunate people at the border.

    And, currently, Europe is no better on this front.

    I hope it does not take World War Three to make the world move back to the idea of compromise and consensus, but I am not optimistic.

  6. Bellwether @ #10 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 7:24 am

    Poor little Pete seems quite upset about Kristina, apparently the least-qualified person on the shadow front bench. If Pete eventually got his potato head around his portfolio it should only take Kristina a day, maybe two max, to do the same.

    Would that be, Home Affairs Minister, Peter Dutton, who came to the job via being the worst and most unqualified Health Minister in Australia’s history? And whose only qualification for the job he now holds is that he was a Queensland copper?

    So, Kristina Kenneally has had oversight of the largest State’s Police Force as a former NSW Premier, and Peter Dutton has been a cop, and he says she’s unqualified!?!

    Absolute crap.

  7. lizzie @ #1 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 7:00 am

    Everybody too cold for thinking this morning?

    Well, I’ve been mopping up ice water from the kitchen floor after the fridge decided to defrost itself overnight as a result of us turning it down due to it icing itself up now that it’s winter. 😐

    Today will be a day of trying to get it right.

  8. Zoidloid,

    US demands social media from visa applications:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48486672

    Not only that, they are insisting on being able to access our posts on GitHub!!!!!

    Now, I have put a few things on GitHub, but it never occurred to me that finding structure in images with a 3:2 ratio or greater of elongation could be politically subversive.

    The USA now requires visa applicants to list all their social media accounts. Including GitHub. pic.twitter.com/vaqonThdv9— Bryan Gaensler (@SciBry) June 2, 2019

  9. Former Liberal senator Jim Molan may face internal disciplinary action over his “rogue” re-election campaign. While it’s “unlikely” Molan will ultimately be punished, it’s also looking less likely he will win the support of preselectors to fill Arthur Sinodinos’ senate spot, with senior NSW figures demanding consequences.
    Molan, meanwhile, is considering taking legal action against Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman, who last week labelled his behaviour “dishonourable”.

    This is pure personal prejudice, but I find Molan arrogant, totally unlikeable.

  10. Zoidlord @ #15 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 7:29 am

    C@tmomma

    As we all know the liberals hate women in power.

    Which reminds me of some chilling footage I saw last week.

    Mike Pence was at a signing ceremony with NZPM Jacinda Ardern and 2 other male leaders. She passed the document to him to sign. He signed it and passed it back handing it across her to the gentleman on the other side of Jacinda! It said everything about the boorish man.

  11. Britain is apparently a reluctant host for Trump’s impending visit to the UK.

    Britain is gearing up for this week’s state visit by President Trump as only Britain can do. There will be an official greeting ceremony at Buckingham Palace, a lavish banquet with the queen’s best china, a gun salute fired from Green Park and the Tower of London.

    It will all be suitably over-the-top.

    But there is also a sense that British officials are slightly less than enthusiastic about this particular round of state visit grandeur.

    Some of the traditional trappings — such as staying over at Buckingham Palace, a royal welcome at the Horse Guards Parade and a gold carriage procession down the Mall — are notably absent.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/as-trumps-state-visit-looms-britain-seems-a-reluctant-host/2019/06/02/c0378178-83b3-11e9-b585-e36b16a531aa_story.html?utm_term=.e3a3bde25e5d

  12. Good Morning

    I see already that Dutton is out attacking Keneally. I hope he enjoys the warm glow. It will soon disappear as Keneally takes him on.

    I expect an “African Gangs” style own goal. We already know he is driving voters and supportaway from the Liberal party in inner city areas.

    When as I expect Labor follows the New Zealand example on immigration that will shut Dutton down. Yes I know NZ has immigration limits. I choose to follow NZ rather than have more years of the racist dog whistling.

    That’s my compromise to stop us moving in the wrong direction.
    Whatever Labor’s strategy is I think Dutton has given a free kick for the long haul fight for unity rather than the continued division Dutton is trying to foster.

  13. Confessions

    Me too. Of course Chalmers is going to be helped by Trump’s Trade War recession. Things are not looking good on all those external factors

  14. Fess

    The Queen is accustomed to concealing her distaste for dictators and warlords, but she’ll have to keep a very stiff upper lip when faced by the crass Trump. Let’s hope he doesn’t think that flirting with her will be the way to go. 😮

  15. C@tMomma and Zoidloid

    As we all know the liberals hate women in power.
    Which reminds me of some chilling footage I saw last week.

    Mike Pence was at a signing ceremony with NZPM Jacinda Ardern and 2 other male leaders. She passed the document to him to sign. He signed it and passed it back handing it across her to the gentleman on the other side of Jacinda! It said everything about the boorish man.

    Sadly, not only have I experienced this on many occasions, but for very senior women I know and work with, this is an all too familiar scenario.

    I guess my reaction is to call it out, which is why I am not, and will never be, a VERY SENIOR woman.

    That being said, I applaud my colleagues who rather than getting angry, get even. The work very hard to work within the system, being very calm and well-prepared in meetings. And they are getting results.

  16. lizzie:

    There isn’t much love for Trump in Britain. Remember their parliament recently debated banning him from visiting? And the Speaker has said he wouldn’t be invited to address parliament.

  17. Guytaur,

    I see already that Dutton is out attacking Keneally. I hope he enjoys the warm glow. It will soon disappear as Keneally takes him on.

    I expect an “African Gangs” style own goal. We already know he is driving voters and supportaway from the Liberal party in inner city areas.

    When as I expect Labor follows the New Zealand example on immigration that will shut Dutton down. Yes I know NZ has immigration limits. I choose to follow NZ rather than have more years of the racist dog whistling.

    That’s my compromise to stop us moving in the wrong direction.
    Whatever Labor’s strategy is I think Dutton has given a free kick for the long haul fight for unity rather than the continued division Dutton is trying to foster.

    Thank you. We need to find a way to compromise.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Wroe tells us that Kristina Kenneally has vowed to put “a blowtorch” on Dutton over the largely overlooked blowout in asylum seekers arriving by plane over the past four years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/keneally-vows-blowtorch-on-dutton-over-asylum-seeker-arrivals-by-plane-20190602-p51tqn.html
    And Phil Coorey writes that by adopting the Home Affairs portfolio and giving it to a hard nut like Keneally shows Albanese at least wants to neutralise what has long been a perceived weakness for Labor.
    https://www.outline.com/kuG4sk
    Michelle Grattan smacks her lips at the prospect of a Keneally/Dutton bloodbath.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-kristina-keneally-vs-peter-dutton-should-produce-plenty-of-political-bloodsport-118171
    Sam Maiden looks at how the individual ministers and shadows line up.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/02/labor-ministry-liberal-cabinet/
    Bevan Shields examines the good and the inexplicable in Labor’s new shadow ministry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-look-labor-looks-a-lot-like-the-old-but-these-changes-give-albanese-a-fighting-chance-20190602-p51tnj.html
    Sarah Martin examines Labor’s new front bench.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/02/anthony-albanese-frontbench-bill-shorten-named-in-new-team-as-keneally-the-big-winner
    Tony walker says that it is one thing for the marketer-in-chief to have fought a copybook scare campaign against a vulnerable opponent, made more vulnerable by electorally suicidal tax policies; it is quite another to deal with a slowing economy in a global environment that is dangerous, if not mad.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-may-yet-turn-out-that-this-was-a-good-election-to-have-lost-20190531-p51t9n.html
    Richard Whittington explains how the stats are stacked against Albo winning in 2022.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/good-luck-albo-the-stats-are-stacked-against-you-20190602-p51tmn.html
    Ross Gittins writes that Australia has now over taken Qatar to be the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. But, thanks to private profiteering and government bungling, this seeming triumph comes at the risk of further diminishing manufacturing industry in NSW and Victoria.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-to-finish-off-manufacturing-become-the-world-s-biggest-gas-exporter-20190531-p51td4.html
    Michael Pascoe takes issue with comments from the Fair Work Commission at its announcement of the new minimum wage. He also looks at what is expected to be some worrying economic measures announcements set to come out this week.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/06/02/minimum-wage-sluggish-economic-growth/
    The AFR reports that top CEOs and chairmen have cautioned against cutting rates to a record low on Tuesday, warning the RBA should have some firepower in the locker in the event of an unexpected recession.
    https://www.outline.com/yWJacf
    Michael Koziol reports that Jim Molan and mates could face disciplinary action following an internal Liberal Party investigation.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6195178/jim-molan-and-mates-could-face-disciplinary-action-following-internal-liberal-investigation/?cs=14350
    Greg Jericho pushes out the proposition that Labor and the Greens should join forces fir the sake of the climate. That will go down well!
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jun/02/labor-and-the-greens-have-to-join-forces-for-the-climates-sake
    Ian Dunlop says that when it comes to climate change Australia still has its head in the sand. We are among the most exposed to this threat, yet we return a government that has been incapable of delivering any credible climate or energy policy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/time-to-flick-climate-emergency-switch-a-plea-to-our-new-parliament-20190530-p51so6.html
    Professor Rodney Tiffin gives us five ways the media can better cover elections. This is an excellent contribution.
    https://theconversation.com/enough-gotcha-campaign-coverage-here-are-five-ways-the-media-can-better-cover-elections-118110
    Peter Hartcher writes that, thirty years on, China shows it has no regrets over the Tiananmen slaughter.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-shows-it-has-no-regrets-over-the-tiananmen-slaughter-20190602-p51tq2.html
    Here’s the latest on Trump’s escalating trade war with China.
    https://www.outline.com/bb75Aw
    The SMH editorial says that a move by the Coalition government to protect the integrity of Australia’s lucrative tertiary education sector seems reasonable and prudent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stronger-english-language-standards-help-protect-our-universities-20190602-p51tot.html
    Adele Ferguson outlines how a landmark case against a government whistleblower will head to court this week amid calls for Attorney General Christian Porter to intervene.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/i-feel-like-i-almost-died-ato-whistleblower-breaks-silence-on-facing-161-years-in-jail-20190531-p51ta5.html
    The US will want business access to the NHS in any post-Brexit trade deal, the US ambassador has said, prompting anger from politicians and campaigners before Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK this week. The Poms have good reason to be scared.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/02/us-wants-access-to-nhs-in-post-brexit-deal-ambassador-to-uk-says
    Stephen Saunders believes that we need to start a conversation about our ever-growing population.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/congestion-busting-just-got-harder-scott-morrison-accelerates-population-rush-,12766
    The punctuality of buses in Sydney’s inner west has worsened since a private company replaced the state-owned operator, new figures show. Yes, privatisation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/performance-of-sydney-s-inner-west-buses-worse-in-private-hands-20190507-p51ks5.html
    Sam Maiden reports on how the government is preparing for the complex and messy debate over religious freedom.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/02/debate-religious-discrimination-act/
    Peter Hannam reports that according to new government data land-clearing in NSW jumped in the year prior to the introduction of native vegetation laws, with one region recording a 40-fold surge in the removal of woody land cover.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/land-clearing-rates-rocketed-in-year-before-nsw-laws-were-loosened-20190531-p51t4x.html
    A top pharmacist says there is little evidence so-called natural cold and flu remedies actually work. Well who would have thought that?
    https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/natural-cold-and-flu-busters-unlikely-to-do-the-trick-but-could-do-harm-20190602-p51tp4.html
    Meanwhile Blackmores mops up big time!
    https://www.outline.com/gz8mcD
    The National Archives of Australia and the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation have defended the long delays faced by people requesting access to historical documents.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6194971/archives-and-asio-defend-access-wait/?cs=14225
    Michael West celebrates that the taxman is closing in on Lendlease’s “magnificent” $1 billion tax dodge.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/taxman-closes-in-on-lendleases-magnificent-1-billion-tax-dodge/
    For the first time in almost 20 years, an Australian car assembly line will return to 24-hour production.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/car-assembly-revived-in-australia-thanks-to-appetite-for-us-pick-ups-20190602-p51tnx.html
    Republican state lawmakers are using redistricting to push through hardline abortion laws that aren’t supported by voters.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/02/how-gerrymandering-undermines-democracy-us-elections
    Trump’s threats of higher import tariffs against Mexican goods can be better understood not as an escalation of his trade war with the rest of the world, but as the act of a desperate man, prepared to upset most US business leaders to achieve his aim of building a border wall with the country’s southern neighbour.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/02/donald-trump-lashing-out-mexico-real-fight-home-democrats
    And Robert Reich writes that America’s booming economy is built on hollow promises.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/02/gig-economy-us-trump-uber-california-robert-reich
    Heston Blumenthal is today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/melbourne-restaurant-dinner-by-heston-propped-up-by-crown-20190601-p51tgm.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the haircut the RBA is about to deliver.

    Pat Campbell and negotiation North Korean style.

    Mark David at News Corp HQ.

    From Matt Golding.




    Some poetry from Judy Horacek.

    And from Mark David.

    Jim Pavlidis and the Morrison economy.

    From Glen Le Lievre.

    Johannes Leak couldn’t help himself.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/49897ce63b1073f85e227cce46ed7240?width=1024

    From the US.



  19. The LNP will maintain policies of conspicuous persecution of asylum seekers, conspicuous destruction of the environment and denunciation of environmental defenders; the conspicuous imposition of hardship on Centrelink beneficiaries. They will add the conspicuous legal and/or extra-legal punishment of unionists, and they will find ways to privilege religious discrimination.

    They deliberately set out to create ‘out groups’ and ‘totem causes’. This is all about nourishing fear.

    The Greens can reflect on their part in enabling this. They are errand-runners for the Libs.

  20. D & M.

    I expect the Greens won’t agree with me.
    Not while Labor is in opposition at least. However the NZ Greens have shown the way when they chose be in government rather than shouting on the sidelines. I hope our Greens after the next election can do the same.

    I also hope Labor understands this bottom line. That helps them show they are strong on border security. Not weak. Strong enough to show compassion and fully defend their policy of opposing indefinite detention while supporting boat turn backs

  21. Ian Dunlop says that when it comes to climate change Australia still has its head in the sand. We are among the most exposed to this threat, yet we return a government that has been incapable of delivering any credible climate or energy policy.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/time-to-flick-climate-emergency-switch-a-plea-to-our-new-parliament-20190530-p51so6.html

    It’s not that the government is ‘incapable’ of delivering a climate change policy. They have the political settings they want, which are to use climate change/environmental issues to wedge Labor. The LNP can depict Labor as Green-tinted. The Greens depict Labor as Blue-in-disguise. The LNP and the Gs use the environment to attack Labor. It works. We’re fucked as a result.

  22. Confessions

    Yes. I am hoping Labor has noted the voters One Nation and Palmer appealed to.
    I suspect it has. With the factional outcomes I think that means things like a People’s Bank that appeals to both One Nation and Green voters can be something Labor looks at.

    Attacking the elites increasing inequality without creating fear of retirees losing out.

  23. Meanwhile in AFL news…

    Overheard on my way to work that Carlton’s coach may have been sacked last night.
    Any further details?

  24. Albo is probably going to find it very difficult to square the circle. The Lib-kin have been after his seat for years. He has to go around in khaki most of the time in order to defuse the Lib-kin sabotage. He’s not going to win in Queensland if he’s wearing camouflage.

  25. The Lib-kin in this country will not emulate the NZ Greens. The Lib-kin hope to destroy Labor. They work for it every day.

  26. What a wonderful description of today’s Republicans!

    Consider today’s supine behavior of most congressional Republicans, which stirs fragrant memories of the vigorous obedience of many members of the U.S. Communist Party to Stalin in the late 1930s. Until Aug. 23, 1939, Stalin wanted, so the CPUSA advocated, U.S. engagement in European resistance to Hitler’s expansionism. However, when on that date Germany and the Soviet Union signed a nonaggression pact as a prelude to carving up Poland, the CPUSA instantly pivoted to advocating U.S. noninvolvement in Europe’s affairs. Then, on June 22, 1941, Hitler invaded the Soviet Union and the CPUSA lurched back to advocating maximum U.S. engagement in resistance to Hitler.

    Most congressional Republicans today display a similar versatility of conviction. They were for free trade until Trump informed them that they were not. They were defenders of the U.S. intelligence community until Trump announced in Helsinki that he believed Vladimir Putin rather than this community regarding Russian support for his election. They excoriated wishful thinking regarding North Korea until Trump spent a few hours with Kim Jong Un and, smitten, tweeted, “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” Republicans have moved from stressing presidential dignity to cowed silence when, to take only the most recent example, Trump endorsed a North Korean state media outlet’s ridicule of “low IQ” Joe Biden (a taunt Trump falsely ascribed to Kim). Republicans railed against President Barack Obama’s executive overreaching but are eloquently mute when Obama’s successor promiscuously declares “emergencies” in order to “repurpose” funds Congress appropriated for other purposes, and to truncate the process of congressional approval of weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and its allies.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/impeachment-would-be-a-debacle/2019/05/31/61474462-8315-11e9-933d-7501070ee669_story.html?utm_term=.7c2b1f41d917

  27. @Matt McDermott

    How seriously does the rest of the world take Trump? Well, here’s how Sky News is advertising his UK state visit. Watch.

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