Tidying up

Full preference counts should start unrolling over the next few days, but we’re probably still a fortnight away from being sure of the exact composition of the Senate.

So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.

Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.

As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.

There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.

We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

866 comments on “Tidying up”

Comments Page 2 of 18
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  1. Finance guy on the ABC just now:

    “The economy is not strong.”

    But Prime Minister Morrison said it was!

  4. Without knowing the results of the raid on his premises and in circumstances in which there is a charge of telephone tapping, I would not get on the Boyle bandwagon yet.

    The 161 years gaol apprehension is one of the more hyperbolic statements going around.

  7. @Stuat Khan

    Tamworth, Kootingal, Moonbi all on Level 4 restrictions, heading toward Level 5. Armidale and Guyra are on Level 4 restrictions, with Guyra’s weir projected to run out of water in around 100 days.
    https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6191003/new-england-cities-and-towns-battle-dire-water-restrictions/

    Minimum wage fell flat:
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/06/02/minimum-wage-sluggish-economic-growth/

    The time is now call from the heart:
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-time-is-now-calls-to-accept-uluru-statement-from-the-heart-20190522-p51px7.html

  9. Michael West

    Lendlease: four years, zero tax paid despite $33B income, $3B profits reported, and large govt contracts michaelwest.com.au/taxman-closes-… Good case for audit rotation #auspol #ausbiz

  10. Shellbell

    I want a fair transparent process where justice is seen to be done.

    Basically I don’t want us following Turkey.
    So keep the principles of fair trials without political interference.
    From what I understand that’s the problem with this case.

    It’s embarrassing for the government

  11. BK

    Yes. I thought so. I did like him pointing out the media unfairness but saying he is still going to take them head on because you have to deal with the reality.

  13. Cat

    Maybe it’s the wrong word. It’s the exact same secrecy Keneally is taking on regarding Home Affairs.

  15. @pauldurtin1968

    Broken Hill has no water.
    Wilcannia has no water.
    Bourke has no water.
    Walgett has no water.
    Cobar is running out of water.
    Dubbo is running out of water.
    Mudgee is running out of water.
    Guyra is running out of water.
    SYDNEY is running out of water.
    #ClimateCrisis #WaterRights

  16. There is no suggestion that the Boyle proceedings in the SA Magistrate’s court (for now – presumably it is on its way to the District Court at some stage if not already) will be secretive.

    Any transparency issues may play out when there is argument about documents to be produced by the ATO through the Commonwealth DPP as part of its disclosure requirements.

  18. I think that Tasmania is a big enough market for an AFL team. Half a million people, with now some strong population growth after all these years. The problem will be the stadium issue and how many games played in Hobart and Launceston. I think the biggest problem Tassie has is in convincing AFL players to relocate there.

    Bloody Tasmania’s obesession with bloody football is holding this sad little state back.
    As long as generation after generation grow up believing playing foota is the pinnacle of human achievement nothing else will take hold.

  19. Mundo

    Maybe Tasmania needs a Tasmanian to represent Australia in Eurovision to get over AFL obsession. 🙂

  21. Morning all

    Thanks William. It is very concerning to see how wrong the polls were after all.

    Meanwhile Winter has arrived in my part of the world. And bringing with it rain.

    I am liking Labors cabinet. Streets ahead of those on the hopeless govt benches.

    I am expecting an interest rate cut tomorrow.

  23. BL

    I am hoping Labor’s economic team is as effective at demolishing the better economic managers myth as Labor was at avoiding a recession during the Global Financial Crisis

  24. Zoidlord @ #65 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 8:55 am

    @pauldurtin1968

    Broken Hill has no water.
    Wilcannia has no water.
    Bourke has no water.
    Walgett has no water.
    Cobar is running out of water.
    Dubbo is running out of water.
    Mudgee is running out of water.
    Guyra is running out of water.
    SYDNEY is running out of water.
    #ClimateCrisis #WaterRights

    But! But! We can buy an unlimited number of cheap cotton t-shirts from K Mart!

  26. Some good crits of the media in this whole article.

    We need a similar phrase – superiority signaling – to describe how the media position themselves as above the fray in their election coverage, substituting posturing for performing their role. Many times, they are overly concerned with signaling their impartiality, but in ways that do not further inform the public.

    One way journalists do this is by opting for balance rather than truth. Reporting stories in a “he said, she said” fashion appears to be impartial, but leaves the audience little wiser. Another manifestation is “bothsides-ism.” Here, journalists highlight their neutrality by criticising both sides as if they are equivalent (which they sometimes are). But if they stop here and fail to probe further, the public learns little.

    Another common way journalists signal their superiority is through their disdain for a boring campaign, as if this is the fault of the politicians, and not their own failure to make a campaign interesting. Politicians, after all, are not meant to be reviewed like Vaudeville entertainers.

    After this election, the major parties will review their strategies. The process will certainly be less than objective – especially in the blame game among the losers – but they will be thinking about what they can do differently next time. It would be nice to think the media will undertake a similar exercise, with a focus on how they can improve in ways that enhance democratic choice and accountability.

    https://theconversation.com/enough-gotcha-campaign-coverage-here-are-five-ways-the-media-can-better-cover-elections-118110

  28. Lizzie

    I think Labor and supporters need to start using the words objective reporting to overcome the false balance argument.

    It avoids elevating false arguments like that of anti vaxxers. I also think Labor should use anti vaxxers as the example. Hunt as Health Minister is on that page with anti vaxxers so the LNP can’t argue against objectivity demands.

  29. They don’t have anything else to talk about except the Opposition. The Coalition is a vacuum.

    @iMusing
    1h1 hour ago

    ABC radio AM is leading with a Labor shadow ministry appointment, what the government Minister thinks about the Labor shadow ministry appointment, and how an ANU man professor thinks the Labor woman shadow minister will fare in the shadow ministry. I wish I was joking.

    @MichaelPascoe01
    3h3 hours ago

    Coming up next: 2 days of horror figures for Frydenberg & Morrison – figures they pretended didn’t exist before the election

  30. Zoidlord @ #65 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 8:55 am

    @pauldurtin1968

    Broken Hill has no water.
    Wilcannia has no water.
    Bourke has no water.
    Walgett has no water.
    Cobar is running out of water.
    Dubbo is running out of water.
    Mudgee is running out of water.
    Guyra is running out of water.
    SYDNEY is running out of water.
    #ClimateCrisis #WaterRights

    Scrott and his Nats nuts have already found the solution to parched throats , declaring ‘Let them eat coal’.

  31. Joe Aston takes a shot at Mesma in the AFR –

    Like spiralling debris in a Kansas storm, there goes another sinecure without former Foreign Minister Julie Bishop’s name on it.

    “I have had numerous offers, but as I have said for months I am not seeking a government job,” goes her entirely consistent refrain.

    Instead, the unapologetic fashionista (despite having bagged Julia Gillard for posing in a photo shoot for a women’s magazine) will “prove herself in the free market”.

    Meanwhile, “sources close to Ms Bishop say she is also planning to join the board of at least one ASX-listed company” and, naturally, “there is speculation” Seven West Media, ANZ Banking Group and Qantas “have been courting her as a non-executive director”.

    This is patent bullshit. Neither the ANZ nor Qantas board is contemplating extending any such invitation.

    Mining giant Rio Tinto, however, could be a different story.

    And who better than a seasoned politician to perpetuate, in earnest, the resources giant’s appalling greenwashing via the mulish misrepresentation of its own environmental virtue?

    But perhaps as decisively as the aforementioned, the Liberals’ Lady Macbeth is a walking, talking product endorsement for Rio’s copper (and gold) and diamond division.

    Imagine, if you will, the boundless cross-promotional possibilities for Rio’s Argyle and Diavik diamonds with an influencer of JBish’s ornamental clout at its disposal. We don’t call her Jewellery Bishop for nothing.

    Yet we must advise caution (or in prevailing Albanese, our dear readers ought to “hasten slowly”), for this is all possibility, not certainty; she might be in contention, but she’s no shoe-in (geddit?).

    It may yet pay to remember that unlike diamonds, the currency of former pollies is far from forever.

    Full article –

    https://www.afr.com/rear-window/jewellery-bishop-no-shoe-in-for-rio-tinto-board-20190601-p51tjn

  32. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, June 3, 2019 at 9:19 am

    Some good crits of the media in this whole article.

    One way journalists do this is by opting for balance rather than truth. ‘

    The Australian is critical of Labor at a rate seven times that of its criticism of the Coalition.
    No ‘balance’ there at all. And precious little truth.
    The Greens criticize Labor at a rate four times that of their criticism of the Coalition.
    No ‘balance’ there, either.
    More than half a billion was spent over six months on advertising, reporting and general publicity. All of it was anti-Labor. No balance there at all, either.
    The result is that many wage earners, the sick, those in precarious employment, renters, unemployed, young people, pensioners, and female workers voted FOR the people who will screw them blind for another three years.
    How good is that?

  34. I don’t care what JBishop says, I reckon she’d have jumped at the chance had either of the US or UN Ambassador roles been offered to her.

  35. lizzie @ #79 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 9:26 am

    They don’t have anything else to talk about except the Opposition. The Coalition is a vacuum.

    @iMusing
    1h1 hour ago

    ABC radio AM is leading with a Labor shadow ministry appointment, what the government Minister thinks about the Labor shadow ministry appointment, and how an ANU man professor thinks the Labor woman shadow minister will fare in the shadow ministry. I wish I was joking.

    @MichaelPascoe01
    3h3 hours ago

    Coming up next: 2 days of horror figures for Frydenberg & Morrison – figures they pretended didn’t exist before the election

    The Coalition IS the opposition to a far superior team. That’s how they won the election. By being the opposition to Labor. It’s a #winning formula, so they’ll obviously keep it up.

  36. Boerwar @ #83 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 9:39 am

    How good is this?
    Sydney has just had its warmest and driest start on record.

    Tell me about it. And the NSW Coalition government, as recently approved by the federal Coalition government, are opening up a new coal mine here soon that no one wants!

  37. Boerwar

    The MSM take the attitude that they know better than the voters, of course. I also like the section that suggested that no history is ever acknowledged by them.

  40. Boerwar says:

    How good is this?
    Sydney has just had its warmest and driest start on record.

    Just got back from Darwin and apparently they had a fecking dry Wet. A couple of people I met in Darwin rural area said they were not able to store enough water to get through the Dry. They both mentioned, with swearing, us bloody Southerners’ meeja had not mentioned at all how dry it had been in the Wet .

  42. Douglas and Milko @ #13 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 7:25 am

    We need a global solution for people seeking asylum.

    Better solution, stop bloody invading and destroying countries as we play our geopolitical games.

  44. poroti @ #80 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 9:28 am

    Zoidlord @ #65 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 8:55 am

    @pauldurtin1968

    Broken Hill has no water.
    Wilcannia has no water.
    Bourke has no water.
    Walgett has no water.
    Cobar is running out of water.
    Dubbo is running out of water.
    Mudgee is running out of water.
    Guyra is running out of water.
    SYDNEY is running out of water.
    #ClimateCrisis #WaterRights

    Scrott and his Nats nuts have already found the solution to parched throats , declaring ‘Let them eat coal’.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Scrotty showing how to secure another term.
    Go Straya!

  45. mundo @ #68 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 9:00 am

    I think that Tasmania is a big enough market for an AFL team. Half a million people, with now some strong population growth after all these years. The problem will be the stadium issue and how many games played in Hobart and Launceston. I think the biggest problem Tassie has is in convincing AFL players to relocate there.

    Bloody Tasmania’s obesession with bloody football is holding this sad little state back.
    As long as generation after generation grow up believing playing foota is the pinnacle of human achievement nothing else will take hold.

    As a Tasmanian I couldn’t give two stuffs about a local team or the actual game. If Hawthorn and the Roos think it’s so good down here they should foot the bill, not the long suffering taxpayer. Fek the AFL and our joke of a government.

  46. lizzie says:
    Monday, June 3, 2019 at 9:26 am

    @iMusing
    1h1 hour ago

    …”ABC radio AM is leading with a Labor shadow ministry appointment, what the government Minister thinks about the Labor shadow ministry appointment, and how an ANU man professor thinks the Labor woman shadow minister will fare in the shadow ministry. I wish I was joking.”…

    I heard this on the radio earlier, pretty much sums it up. Although the intro to the story was along the lines of… “Labor under fire for appointing inexperienced Senator Kristina Keneally to important home affairs portfolio”.

    The only input they bothered to get from Ms Keneally herself, was a sound bite of her saying mean things about Dutton BEFORE the election.
    Pathetic really.

  47. lizzie @ #93 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 10:10 am

    Albo “wants to develop a new platform”. Completely different, or adjusted?

    I believe that Mr. Albanese has mastered the three metre board and will now attempt the 10 metre high board – diving into a wet mass composed of corpulent liberal and national MP’s and senators reduced to the complete sponges from whence they sprung.

    Cripes – the top one looks a step too far for me.😱 😵

  49. I think the biggest problem Tassie has is in convincing AFL players to relocate there.

    Tasmania has the same problem with the winter codes that Canberra does – not enough punters want to brave the July-August evening weather in an outdoor stadium. Tasmania has the added disadvantage that half the state have to drive hours for the privilege as well, but at least their loyalties lie with only one oval-ball game rather than three I guess.

  50. Quentin Dempster@QuentinDempster
    4m4 minutes ago

    ⁦Oz media’s continuing world of hurt: News Corp Australasia executive chairman @michaelmillerau warns more staff cuts are coming across all metro mastheads, editorial, marketing, advertising etc ⁦@australian⁩ 3/6/17.

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