So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.
Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.
As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.
There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.
We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/jun/02/up-to-25-cups-of-coffee-a-day-safe-for-heart-health-study-finds?CMP=share_btn_tw
By coincidence, I have been given a coffee machine and am struggling this morning to adjust to its demands. Just in time for coffee priced to rise!
lizzie @ #100 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 10:32 am
On this matter – I hear that the journalistic endeavours will soon be reduced to a single monkey (working for peanuts and under protest) in a back room with a 1943 model Imperial typewriter.
🐒 This is not to denigrate monkey. These fabulous creatures are much admired chez KayJay (as are gorillas – particularly babies).
☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕☕
guytaur says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 8:23 am
Briefly
Keep it up. Perhaps you can convince some Liberals to vote Green.
Same/same
Labor-hostile Parties….
Yikes! Who drinks 5 cups of coffee per day, much less 25!!
I have two every morning and that’s more than enough.
Scott Morrison, like Albo, thinks 10 steps ahead. Of course there is going to be a Tasmanian AFL team created. Probably with a Coal-fired Power Station providing the warmth for Tasmanians as they watch the games. 😐
As someone said to me the other day, tea is a lot better because the caffeine kicks in more slowly than it does in coffee. I’ll drink to that! 🙂
lizzie says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 10:36 am
Nice to know.
I’m having to adjust here. The coffees I’ve had so far have been weak and watery.
It hasn’t helped that it’s Ramadan at the moment and most of the coffee shops don’t open until after sunset. 🙂
Barney:
You’re no longer in Vietnam?!
Coal miners in the UK were the political targets of Margaret Thatcher, who used conflict with miners to disable Labour and disembowel social democracy. Her counter-party in the conflict was the old Communist Party.
Coal miners in NSW and QLD are being used in political gaming by the Liberals to disable Labor here. The Liberal’s counter-party here are the Greens.
They all use miners.
With the prospect of 3 years of reading here how KK has hit the potato Head for 6, can someone explain to me the difference between the two policies on asylum seekers. I know Labor will increase the quota but what are the other differences?
Honest question
Confessions says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 10:48 am
Yep! Left a week ago and I’m back living in the Southern Hemisphere for the first time in 15 years. 🙂
Fess
Completely off topic, but have you seen a new season of Bad Blood has recently dropped on Netflix. I haven’t watched any of it yet. I’m building up to it by re-watching S1.
Barney in Makassar @ #111 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 8:52 am
There goes the neighbourhood (said with tongue in cheek of course). 😉
Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 10:52 am
You don’t need to be a prick to them while they’re in detention and more willing to consider resettlement options.
Dan
I watched S2 over the weekend. It’s a cracker!
Barney:
Welcome home (of sorts)!
Dan G:
Yep, sure have. I loved it, it’s very good and I recommend you watch it. I didn’t know S2 had been uploaded, so am going to catch that soon.
Barney in M
Good summary. 🙂
Thanks BK.
With it being a public holiday over in the West, I’ll hopefully make a start on S2 sometime today.
Dan Gulberry says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 10:54 am
I’d say you guys have been making a pretty good go at it without my input! 🙂
More details please Barney
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/03/experts-urge-theresa-may-to-confront-trump-over-climate-crisis
He respects no one, and certainly not May, whom he probably regards as a nice lady who held his hand on some steps. A servant.
The hubris and triumphalism at the Oz continues unabated. Their – and their political arm at the LNP’s – belief that the election result signals a rejection of the entire ‘left’ agenda and embrace of IPA lunar right policies that were never mentioned during the campaign gives me hope that they will over-reach and get smashed at the 2022 election. They had a narrow and unexpected win on the basis of a fear campaign in Queensland. The swing to the greens in most seats is being ignored. The headlines should be “Shorten was unconvincing” and “Labor should have gone negative”
How farked will the LNP be when they slash services, delay tax breaks, expand the GST to cover costs, and still fail to deliver a surplus because of a flatlining economy with falling housing prices, wage stagnation and rising unemployment – and have emissions higher in 2022 than they are today. I doubt even Morrison can maintain his daggy dad persona for three years – he may be a very good bullshit artist, but his inner c@#$iness – which goes all the way to his core – will show. The “I don’t answer Canberra bubble questions” ruse already has the media pissed off, and some sections of the media will hold him to account.
Polls will be discarded if they don’t show the government in front, but I’m guessing their long run on negative newspolls will not be broken at all or for long despite the hatchet job the media are doing in Albo and labor at present. The polls that count are in queensland, so the polling companies should focus there.
Labor needs to articulate the case for change and not go to water – that’s what Beasley did and why he never became PM. If they don’t then I look forward to Albo losing his seat to the greens in 2022.
I think it’s abundantly clear that it’s a strategic mistake for an Opposition to provide any policy details.
sustainable future says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 11:02 am
….
Labor needs to articulate the case for change and not go to water – that’s what Beasley did and why he never became PM. If they don’t then I look forward to Albo losing his seat to the greens in 2022.
And another little green pony sits in wreckage next to the 60 million dollar horse clive and yells, you need to go to the left.
Heard an ABC interviewer ask KK this morning why – as ScoMo had claimed a “strong mandate for his full suite of tax cuts” – Labor wouldn’t just wave them through, irrevocably committing future governments (of either color).
KK nominated the first tranche of the cuts, scheduled for July 1st not going ahead as promised. When pressed, she also pointed out there is no legislation for the future cuts available as yet. In other words: standard answers.
She did not deny the government had its “strong mandate”, which I thought she should have. It has just a 2 seat majority. The government is a couple of by-elections away from disaster. And we have already seen that internal dissent and other factors, such as s44 challenges, can provide ample raw material for collapsing numbers in the House.
If a 2 seat majority is a “strong mandate”, 3 seats would have to have been just about Holy Writ. 4 seats: The Second Coming.
Labor should fight this “strong mandate” horseshit coming from the media head on, not avoid it or change the subject. The government just squeaked in. Labor has nothing to lose by pointing this out, at any and every opportunity.
Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 11:00 am
There’s no difference in the framework, the differences occur in the implementation. For example;
Labor’s for providing appropriate medical treatment wherever that is, the Government opposes this.
Labor is for accepting the New Zealand resettlement offer, the Government opposes this.
BB
Forming a government gives a party the right to propose legislation for debate and consideration by all elected members. That is all. In practical terms there is no such thing as an all encompassing “mandate”.
I’m with BB, it is disappointing for sure; but in reality the Liberals just scrapped it in. Two seats and they are in minority government territory again.
BK certainly not with merely a two seat majority.
I’m with BB, it is disappointing for sure; but in reality the Liberals just scrapped it in. Two seats and they are in minority government territory again.
And if Labor had won the election the Coalition certainly wouldn’t be respecting THEIR mandate. Instead coming out with horseshit about representing their voters’ interests in the parliament.
Labor should do the same.
BK, not even that. The Opposition and cross bench can and do propose legislation for debate too.
There’s Executive power though, which is only exercised by the Government of the day, but that’s separate to the legislature. There is meant to be parliamentary supremacy, so the Executive is responsible and accountable to the Parliament, but the HoR is a weak parliamentary chamber in Australia.
The hubris and triumphalism at the Oz continues unabated. Their – and their political arm at the LNP’s – belief that the election result signals a rejection of the entire ‘left’ agenda and embrace of IPA lunar right policies that were never mentioned during the campaign gives me hope that they will over-reach and get smashed at the 2022 election.
As Mega George said in a podcast last week. The Coalition are in 2004 territory all over again. Hubris will be their killer when they overreach, having won one election too many.
BK
“Mandate” is used by maniacs like Canavan to mean “anything I decide we should have in relation to energy sources”. Every time I see his face I feel motivated to give him a slap in the mush.
BK says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 11:09 am
Control the numbers in the Reps and the Senate gives you an absolute mandate to do what want.
Control the numbers in the Reps gives you a mandate to have your policies considered by the Parliament.
My understanding is that NZ will (and quite rightly) not agree to A second class of citizenship that prevents asylum seekers that they accept having free entry to Australia. What is Labor’s response?
BK wrote, of Canavan:
Every time I see his face I feel motivated to give him a slap in the mush.
There is a German word for this: backpfeifengesicht.
“Germans use this to describe someone who they feel desperately needs to be slapped in the face or more specifically, a face that needs to be slapped as hard as humanly possible, preferably with a chair.”
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://matadornetwork.com/read/10-untranslatable-german-terms/&ved=2ahUKEwimi9bVksziAhVDOSsKHeY-AvwQFjAIegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw27h4u7ZRqM3iUop6NBZKis&cshid=1559525031156
Finally found Chalmers’ interview on RN breakfast. If you scroll to the 1 hour mark here you can listen: https://abcmedia.akamaized.net/rn/podcast/2019/06/bst_20190603.mp3
As I said he’s a much better communicator than Bowen, and he wouldn’t be drawn on FKelly’s questioning about the tax cuts.
Scrott has a mandate to form government. The Opposition has a mandate to say GAGF, just ask Tone ‘Deaf’ Abbott 😉
Isnt a mandate what millennial lads call a catch up at the pub?
Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 10:52 am
With the prospect of 3 years of reading here how KK has hit the potato Head for 6, can someone explain to me the difference between the two policies on asylum seekers. I know Labor will increase the quota but what are the other differences?
Honest question
——————————–
One word: Humanity
Oakeshott Country @ #110 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 10:52 am
Actually put some real f***ing effort into getting them resettled in third countries – NZ, Canada etc and improve conditions in the meantime. Dutton is quite happy to leave them to fester so he can keep using their very existence as political fodder.
On a more general level, this is why I can’t stand the coalition – in my personal experience right back to conscription for Vietnam they have been totally consistent in exploiting defenceless people for political advantage – it is morally repugnant.
Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 11:24 am
My understanding is that NZ will (and quite rightly) not agree to A second class of citizenship that prevents asylum seekers that they accept having free entry to Australia. What is Labor’s response?
———————————-
Come back in three years when there hopefully will be a Labor government. You can ask Prime Minister Albanese what his view is then? OK? Do you think we are all suckers?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-warships-arrive-in-sydney-harbour-for-stopover-20190603-p51ttw.html
Simon² Katich® @ #140 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 11:35 am
Those aren’t millennials. Millennials don’t wear suits!
Oakeshott Country @ #136 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 11:24 am
Are those who have gone to the USA prevented form ever coming to Australia? I think probably not because I can’t see the USA accepting a restriction like that on their citizens- and that is a precedent established by the coalition.
No. But it is a mandate. And one of them isnt drinking their beer.
I’ve always been a bit confused by this because clearly there are, right now, NZ citizens who do not have free entry to Australia – Dustin Martin’s dad, for example.
This is not to suggest that asylum seekers are criminals, but the principle that Australia can’t set out the criteria for deciding which NZ citizens are allowed in and which not – without making a ‘second class of citizenship’ for NZers – seems at odds with the way things work right now.