So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.
Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.
As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.
There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.
We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.
lizzie @ #199 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:04 pm
Straight from the horses mouth
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1135389323405041665
Scrott has sent an aid package to the Solomon Islands . Sea level rising ? Sorted.
I can see that we are going to get another 3 years of ineffectual sanctimonious bleating from The Greens and their followers.
ajm is right. Their heads are in the clouds and they have lost touch with political reality.
C@tmomma @ #202 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:07 pm
Ask yourself if you’ve lost touch with climate change reality.
There is another aspect to “turn the boats back when safe to do so”, and that is how “safe” the boatees will be when they are dumped back in their old country. I think this should be pursued.
lizzie
People don’t care. Some who were sent back to Afghanistan were killed. People were meh. They would be even more meh today 🙁
.
.
The Australian government today said it would investigate reports that up to 20 rejected asylum seekers from Afghanistan were killed after being sent back.
Their fate was traced by the Edmund Rice Centre humanitarian agency, which says it has documentary evidence that nine were killed by the Taliban……………
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/oct/27/australia-afghanistan
Rex Douglas @ #204 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:11 pm
Listen to what Nick Feik, editor of The Monthly has to say about people like you, Rex Douglas. I have bolded the part that especially pertains to your type:
The lessons to be learnt are becoming clearer, and the mea culpas that should accompany the post-election analyses of virtually every political journalist and commentator in the country are necessary. Not as empty gestures: they are requisite ingredients of an engaged and frank response to the realisation (how many times do we need the reminder?) that no one can read the intentions of people in every corner of Australia at any particular moment. That’s what elections are for.
In the meantime, we can ignore the triumphalists and the purveyors of I-told-you-so – they are the only ones not learning from the result.
We have to listen to all of Australia’s people. Not just the inner city/sea change Greenies.
C@tmomma @ #207 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:18 pm
I think it’s clear how you feel about the merits of climate change.
Which is not to say we have to ignore Climate Change. Many new people voted Labor for the first time because we were the only party of government who had a realistic Climate Change policy. However, Labor shouldn’t go to extremes either.
Rex Douglas @ #209 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:19 pm
Absolute crap.
See my most recent comment.
However, as usual, your sanctimonious bleating will only make the effects of Climate Change worse because your position is just too extreme. Only 1/10 Australians agree with you. And the government is the Coalition again, for 3 more years. Something that your relentless focus on the Labor Opposition never acknowledges.
So, in the end, all you achieve with your ineffectual whinging and focus on Labor, is another Coalition government who will work to make Climate Change worse. Congratulations.
Now, I’m not replying to any more of your pointless whining until you get real.
C@tmomma @ #209 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:20 pm
Realistic climate change policy doesn’t include the backing in of continued coal mining/exporting.
ajm @ #194 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 1:58 pm
The collateral damage to those same people from unmitigated climate change will be worse than whatever collateral damage you’re saying they’ll take due to not being able to burn coal anymore.
Many of these people (and especially the ones with the fewest resources) live in places that aren’t connected to a nationwide electricity grid. It makes zero sense to advocate sending them coal when for basically the same cost they could have a local microgrid with solar and battery storage. Lift these people up instead of throwing some coal at them and saying “here, this is cheap, burn it”.
“Our food crops are failing, we have no water, and we get hit with 50 degree days every summer” is a higher order problem than “we don’t have light after the sun sets because there’s nothing cheap left to burn”.
“I hope people who want to punish the ALP with a thousand terms in opposition because it doesn’t do EXACTLY what they want it to are cool with the effect that the collateral damage is to the lives of millions of people, most of them with far fewer resources to see them through the dark days than possessed by the critics.”
This is a bullshit position from the coal lobby – “We are only thinking of the poor”. Renewables are now cheaper than new coal, even without carbon pricing.
It is shit that we can’t keep burning coal, but science says we can’t. Australia can ignore this reality as long as it likes, but it makes no economic sense to back coal over sustainable future industries.
Labor will sign their political death warrant if they weaken climate commitments and back coal.
You do realize that it’s collectively the voters that sign “political death warrants”.
Take your argument to the voters, they’re the ones who just returned ‘how good is coal’ Morrison and ensured that Adani gets its approvals stat.
“Which is not to say we have to ignore Climate Change. Many new people voted Labor for the first time because we were the only party of government who had a realistic Climate Change policy. However, Labor shouldn’t go to extremes either.”
It is not extreme to listen to science. If labor softens their climate policy they woll lose many votes – and deservedly so.
are you old? you obviously don’t care much about the future.
Farr
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/policy-showdown-emerges-between-coalition-and-labor/news-story/0a2e09bd6e5ff86600a5a75fd354b8eb
I don’t think it is going to extremes to set a higher target than the wimpish Coalition, with their “we’re already meeting the Paris target” nonsense..
sustainable future @ #216 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:43 pm
No, I’m not old. I have 2 Millennial children, so that gives you some idea of my age. And I want a future for their children. However, I am also not so blind that I cannot see the writing on the wall of extreme Climate Change action in Australia.
‘Hasten slowly’. It’s a good motto for Labor to adopt.
…If it wants to get into government, not scare the horses ie the 90% of voters who don’t vote for extreme action to deal with Climate Change, and actually deal with Climate Change.
Btw, I AM a scientist.
lizzie @ #218 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:46 pm
No, and that’s what Labor did. However, The Greens are about way more extreme measures than that.
Having glorious weather here this long weekend. Have been out in the garden in a t-shirt and shorts for heaven’s sake. In June!
The BoM forecasts we will have a drier and warmer winter this year. So on trend according to the decades-long pattern of the drying climate here. #globalwarming
I fear Mumble is right. I’ve no idea who KK’s predecessor was, and perhaps that’s the point.
The Chinese Navy measuring Sydney Harbour?
How good is that?
C@t
The Greens extreme measures are just to prove how ‘real’ they are, and to wedge Labor.
And on the finch:
Fess
There was no direct Shadow for Home Affairs, and Albo’s done good.
C@tmomma @ #219 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:48 pm
I see you’ve taken to parrotting the conservative buzzword ‘extreme’ in your attacks on climate change campaigners.
Jackol @ #214 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:42 pm
Then Labor should prosecute the argument better, not sell out its principles because it thinks that’s what voters want.
Not spending the entire election (and multiple years leading up to it) sitting on the fence regarding Adani and new coal mines would have been a good start.
The voters that swung against Labor want jobs, dollars, and certainty of retaining jobs and dollars. Not many of them care very much about whether those jobs, dollars, and certainty come from coal or something else. Offer a credible vision for these people to follow, and they will.
‘With the prospect of 3 years of reading here how KK has hit the potato Head for 6, can someone explain to me the difference between the two policies on asylum seekers. I know Labor will increase the quota but what are the other differences?’
Labor has another three years to settle its new policy on asylum seekers. Only the fatuous would expect it to have a policy now.
The Coalition, enabled by the Greens, will continue with its policy: to bastardize asylum seekers for party political reasons and because they enjoy bastardizing the weak.
Of course the Greens have had the same policy on this since 1992. And what a difference that has made!
The only interest Fitzgibbon is interested in is self-interest. Labors version of Barnaby Joyce..
lizzie:
There must’ve been an immigration shadow. However I’m going to suspend judgement until I see how this plays out.
Boerwar @ #227 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:56 pm
Under Shorten, Labor cravenly dodged the issue.
Hopefully KK may make an effort to get those tortured souls out of detention.
Hey what?
They could buy it super cheap from the Russians.
Or use google street view?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFhgce-BrHY
Well, he sure aint going to admit responsibility for his primary vote decline. So it MUST be someone elses fault.
I’ve only just noticed that my second favorite blog – Loon Pond – has shut up shop.
What a shame.
I can see why it all just seems so hopeless and pointless really to carry on exposing the mendacity the hypocrisy the incompetence when it just doesn’t seem to matter anymore….
a r –
“If only they sold the message better the voters would have changed their minds”. Maybe, but probably not. Democracy is a terrible system – except for all the others, of course – and it relies on the voters actually paying attention and making rational choices. We voters are patently useless at doing this, but short of suspending democracy the voters are where it’s at, and doing ‘what the voters want’ is … democracy.
You can state facts plainly, you can wag fingers, you can promise other bright shiny new jobs, but the bottom line is most voters are not paying attention and vote based on their feelpinions and immediate self interest. Winning politics – particularly in the modern era – is very rarely about “prosecuting the argument better”.
Labor do need to think very carefully about their political strategy.
The Greens are obviously not thinking about their political strategy – in terms of positive climate change and other environmental outcomes – at all.
Berating Labor seems to be the extent. And here we are.
Plus, Adani is just a big distraction.
Rex I can’t let this go “The only interest Fitzgibbon is interested in is self-interest. Labors version of Barnaby Joyce” this is on par with equating Carolyn Chisholm to Martin Bryant. JF is a decent person unlike Joyce.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 2:11 pm
C@tmomma @ #202 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:07 pm
I can see that we are going to get another 3 years of ineffectual sanctimonious bleating from The Greens and their followers.
ajm is right. Their heads are in the clouds and they have lost touch with political reality.
Ask yourself if you’ve lost touch with climate change reality.
For the Greens climate change is nothing more than an opportunity to wedge Labor; if it was more they would be looking around for a coalition; looking for solutions that take all parties forward; but that is not what they are doing is it. Just an all out attempt to wedge.
Another three years of trying to wedge Labor, the question is; will Labor allow it, or will Labor tell the little Green ponies; Labor will address climate change when they have the power to create policies to deal with the transitions, polices a little more comprehensive that simple removing peoples livelihood.
I presume it would only be lawful for the AEC to count votes, and there’s no reason to think they will, sadly. What we really want of course is full inputting of preference data, like they do in NSW. Sources familiar with the matter are hopeful this might happen some day.
ar
OH yes; the little Green pony standing in the mess next to the 60 million house Clive, telling the horse called Labor; i’m not sorry I was helping Clive; you should have pulled harder.
Labor’s lead out from 282 to 327 in Macquarie — postals broke 154-125 their way, out-of-division pre-polls 103-87. Only a few hundred votes left out now, mostly absents.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, June 3, 2019 at 3:02 pm
…
Under Shorten, Labor cravenly dodged the issue.
And what is and was the Greens contribution? Another little wedge to use against Labor, their actual contributions; zip, zero, nadda.
If you are happy and you know it clap your hands…….
It may yet turn out that this was a good election to have lost
As the Reserve Bank considers cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, it’s clear the Coalition has been re-elected at an awkward moment.
by Tony Walker
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-may-yet-turn-out-that-this-was-a-good-election-to-have-lost-20190531-p51t9n.html
William Bowe @ #240 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 3:18 pm
Labor finally getting their postal vote act together.
Confessions @ #221 Monday, June 3rd, 2019 – 2:48 pm
We eagerly await your photographs documenting this glorious occasion.
Herewith imaginary flowers, chocolates and coffee machine. 💐☕🍫
Will Scott Morrison go to God’s naughty corner now? He did confidently say that Macquarie was coming back to the Coalition.
Rex blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
kayjay:
Some footage taken at a local event a couple hours ago.
https://www.facebook.com/albanyadvertiser/videos/399045487351680/?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARAiegaNJIBp5-pAAy6p8KriMsAyGzIq2fsnkfDlF4BfO6Q8dzOcd7gafMJ4QVAtrWDxpPA242st1YhMjcO-r9MatP8RR4ONR76ihuwXEr9qn1lFsHyRLktrBwnMJf-G-hrObXF-LUPLIXyqT8-mheaHrhOELBlILlP_NfdMtgU25ParK89hcZQYinJxuZeGczmr5XfoXRc0QNBt1xiuZZZs7jTY5ml0NHRBfvrBgxmcedYUwN5Wa5WvoNQCLk_glMC-H_pjaDsh6Wbl46o2tnreGZm7fEypFzmMiQkJhMS0dOR_Q9NcwBN7rgjPPP92KkzBGWKf6hNdPnuLtjwlkIXlyJ9g5Q_L&__tn__=-R
Since 1992 the Greens have re-elect the Coalition most of the time thus consigning Australia to global warming.
Jericho called the Greens a ‘Vanity Project’.
How right he was.
The Chinese Navy arrives a day early for the massacre anniversary.
How good is that, Morrison?
Christopher Pyne, now that he’s out of politics, having a few nice things to say about Anthony Albanese:
https://10daily.com.au/views/a190602dfhsw/christopher-pyne-i-have-to-say-this-to-albo-before-its-too-late-20190603