Tidying up

Full preference counts should start unrolling over the next few days, but we’re probably still a fortnight away from being sure of the exact composition of the Senate.

So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.

Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.

As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.

There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.

We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

866 comments on “Tidying up”

  1. lizzie @ #737 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    presenting the climate strategy as part of a package with increased welfare spending

    @tveitdal
    7m7 minutes ago

    Finland to be carbon neutral by 2035. One of the fastest targets ever set https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/03/finland-carbon-neutral-2035-one-fastest-targets-ever-set/
    Incoming PM Rinne told reporters it was time to “invest in the future”, presenting the climate strategy as part of a package with increased welfare spending Monday

    Essentially that’s what the Greens party here run on… and coal happy Lib-Lab supporters call extreme.

  2. briefly @ #739 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 5:19 pm

    Rex, I will be going to the next Labor Branch meeting to remind them that just as the Greens set out to vilify coal miners, so did Margaret Thatcher. The Greens are wearing Thatcher’s mantle. They are hostile to workers. The Green Party – the apparatchiks – are hostile to the Labor Movement.

    The G-machine is Thatcherite in its practice and to a surprising degree in its rhetoric. They aim their criticisms at Labor, just as Thatcher did.

    You’re not really that serious about climate change are you with that logic.

  3. lizzie,
    Topham and Guerin are CrosbyTextor young Turks. They learned their craft at the knee of Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor. Also in America.

    But it’s probably why they nicked the Back in Black imagery, being originally from NZ.

  4. I think it’s fair to say that this is both stupid and really insulting to Greens voters:

    “The point is that G-voters have been duped by the G-operators. G-voters believe they are voting for a Labor proxy when they vote Green. They’re not. They’re voting for an outfit that actively campaigns against Labor all the time. One of the consequences of this campaign is that the Liberals find it much easier to win elections. It’s fair to say that in voting Green, such voters are choosing self-defeat. They are voting against their own hopes.”

    I would say that the people voting for the Greens, are voting for The Greens. No more, no less.
    It’s definitely NOT FAIR for you to judge why voters choose the Greens, nor to make strange claims about their motivations or rationale. You have no idea, it’s all your invention

  5. lizzie @ #746 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    A low-profile Kiwi digital and creative agency was in the thick of the ‘miracle’, come-from-behind campaign that saw Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Liberal Party re-elected.

    Topham Guerin, established just three years ago, helped the Liberals outgun Bill Shorten’s Labor campaign with high octane digital messaging, deploying videos and ads around the clock.

    Founder Sean Topham was based at the party’s national campaign centre in Brisbane with members of his Auckland staff and has been credited in Australian media reviews of the campaign with helping execute a digital campaign that swamped Labor.

    Topham, a former head of the National Party’s ‘Young Nats; youth wing, and fellow former Young Nat Ben Guerin, 23, set up their agency in 2016 after personal stints working on political campaigns in the UK and elsewhere. They worked for Bill English’s losing campaign in 2017, and have used their skills in digital and video disciplines for winning Liberals’ state campaigns in New South Wales and South Australia.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2019/05/29/608592/kiwis-who-helped-get-scomo-across-the-line

    briefly, take note of this for your next meeting

  6. After the 2016 election Di Natale announced that the Greens were gunning for government.
    How did that go in 2019?
    Suckered.

  7. Rex, I will be going to the next Labor Branch meeting….

    … to find out why Labor voted against its stated policy on ISDS clauses in the TPP. Then you can inform us all as you promised to do, and we all know Labor people keep their promises.

    I assume your branch meetings are where questions can be asked, or are they just analingus sessions?

  8. “After the 2016 election Di Natale announced that the Greens were gunning for government.
    How did that go in 2019?
    Suckered.”

    After the 2016 election Shorten announced that the ALP were gunning for government.
    How did that go in 2019?
    Suckered.

  9. Diogenes:

    Bloody hell. What a fiasco at ANU

    I’d be more worried about what the ANU does next, which will presumably involve the introduction of processes so cumbersome that it destroys the ability of the institution to undertake the activities of a University.

  10. Rex Douglas:

    You’re not really that serious about climate change are you with that logic.

    Would you rather have the climate change policies of Mrs Thatcher or those of Mr Rudd?

  11. astrobleme
    A couple of per cent and Labor would now be forming government.
    The Greens need another forty per cent.
    Clear who was suckered.
    I feel sorry for you guys.
    Only another thirty years to go and you will be half way there.
    Of course the Reef will be 100% dead by then but oy veh!
    Enjoy, eh?

  12. The world is moving away from coal, and coal workers will be the first to feel the brunt of that. The Greens are talking about the creation of the 180,000 jobs that will come through investment in renewables and a clean energy export industry. pic.twitter.com/8WmwZvegOK— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) June 3, 2019

  13. Wow. How good is that! Costello’s appointment, Lowe, found it necessary to wait until a few weeks after the election to announce the interest rate cut that indicates a sick economy.

  14. The coal and gas that we export is Australia’s biggest contribution to a global climate breakdown – by a long shot. We can’t open up any new mines and gas fields and keep our planet in tact. We need leadership to build the jobs-rich clean economy that awaits us. pic.twitter.com/Gje2aVcQz7— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) June 4, 2019

  15. https://theconversation.com/was-there-an-ethnic-vote-in-the-2019-election-and-did-it-make-a-difference-117911

    Many factors appear to have contributed to the unexpected victory of the Coalition in the May 18 election. Two factors were predictable and had a devastating impact on the ALP vote where they were activated – ethno-religious prejudices around sexuality and gay culture, and fears about perceived threats to economic stability in some ethnic communities.

    This “ethnic” vote in the big cities stopped the ALP in its tracks in many Coalition electorates that were expected to swing to it, while pushing others firmly into government heartland.

  16. a r:

    Whilst Nick Ross was brave to do what he did, it was rather undermined by his lack of knowledge.

    I think I’ll need some examples of how he managed to incorrectly bag the Coalition’s NBN. It doesn’t seem possible. FTTN is (and always was) just fancy-talk for “we’re going to leave you with the same shitty, dead-end copper wires you already have and just make some signaling changes at the cabinet to pretend like we’re doing something”.

    Essentially he walked into the lines of defence that Mr Turnbull had prepared.

    So when one says that FTTP will provide superior bandwidth (to FTTN etc.) it is of course true, but Mr Turnbull had multiple lines of defence available, which he successfully deployed:
    – most people don’t need it just to download movies (subtext – pornography) more quickly
    – most people reckon they’ve got enough, MTM is about making that level of service universal
    What’s needed it a detailed understanding of all of the advantages (not just bandwidth, which is least significant in relative terms, and hence most vulnerable to attack) and likewise of the disadvantages of (unmaintained) copper

    And when one says that fibre is clearly the superior technology, and is substantially future proof, this too is true (though the longevity of fibre has been a surprise), but Mr Turnbull says:
    – fibre is best but we can’t afford Rolls-Royce (here’s a Holden)
    – “I was in VC – and the list of people claiming things were ‘future proof’ only to be superseded next
    year is as long as my …” . True, but the detail is that it is less true in relation to fibre than almost anything else…
    – actually most people like the (slight) increase in bandwidth from FTTN, so what are you complaining about (insert allusion to pornography) – pity it’s slight, once-off and lots of other properties are relatively more important than bandwidth (what mean by “relatively more important” is that bandwidth is sort of OK, whereas for various other properties, the FTTN level is unacceptably bad)

    First of all, one should not forget that Mr. Turnbull’s principal talent is in bullshit—the guy is actually a world class bullshitter—and competing with him in that arena is futile. Moreover, the point is not to prove that Mr. Turnbull is a scoundrel who has ruined the NBN in order to advance his nefarious purposes, since most people assume (in some cases unfairly), that all politicians are engaged such such activity (i.e. politicians’ perfidy is not news to most people). Instead one needs to show the opportunity costs of the MTM choice and the effect these have on “punters” and more particularly their children.

    Now it happens that the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM – the peak body for computing) was at the time studying consumer/SME inter-networking. In particular they identified the purposes (e.g. economic participation so as to grow the economy – addressable market: much easier to develop an Internet provided service if one can assume everyone has a high standard connection instead of there being a dog’s breakfast) and key problems (e.g. reliability).

    Now we have FTTN, which:
    – often (though not always) provides somewhat more bandwidth (particularly upstream) than did previous ADSL, at least for the present …
    – often is significant less reliable than the ADSL (and often reliability decreases over time)
    So we have a part of the home / SME market that is not addressable due to unreliability, and hence have gone from degraded asset (legacy copper) to one of even however economic value: essentially useless in economic terms. But it does speed up downloading of pornography!

  17. Well, if you think that broad democratic participation leads to indecisive and ineffective governments*, then these last couple of years will have certainly have not persuaded you against that notion.

    * Like the Chinese Communist Party, for example.

  18. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 6:08 pm

    “Clear who was suckered.”

    I guess you really hate Democracy then.’

    Nah. Just all the voters who are clubbing together to ensure another three years of climate inaction.

  19. I find it curious that some here who say they are Labor supporters say we must remain loyal to coal miners. yet the last election result makes clear that coal miners did not remain loyal to Labor, but progressive urban voters did (the aged demographic and death scare campaign cost Labor in cities). And that was without Labor even having the guts to come out and stake a position on coal mining. So who is being loyal to whom, and who deserves loyalty? I have no sympathy for an overpaid minority who want to dictate to the majority, whether they are bankers, lawyers or coal miners.

    Good evening all.

  20. EGT
    It’s 200,000 people whose details have been stolen; name, DOB, email, address, phone, parents details, passport, bank detail, TFN and grades.
    A lot are now in parliament. They are blaming the Chinese (of course).

  21. Rex, the G’s are not serious about climate change. They campaign to ensure the re-election of the LNP, who pride themselves on the denial/rejection of climate change abatement. The LNP will develop the Galilee. The Greens will be thrilled. It will give them a wedge to use against Labor for decades to come.

    Social justice, social democracy and environmental protection are all in serious jeopardy because of the utterly foolhardy politics of the Gs.

  22. Pegasus- I read the article you linked I am not sure it really tells us all that much, the main themes seem to be that the “Chinese” vote is slowly grinding it’s way towards being largely indistinguishable from the patterns in the caucasian vote ie not an ethic vote at all, and that certain local factors might play a role in other “ethnic” voting patterns but it is really just conjecture and very hard to really know.

    One group that interests me is pacific islanders as from my own personal experience evangelical protestant Christianity is extremely strong in this community.I would guess that regular church attendance would be about 80% maybe even higher in the pacific Islander communities.

  23. Dan G:

    I started watching S2 of Bad Blood last night. In my opinion it’s good, but not as good as S1. Noting however, that S1 was based on actual events whereas S2 isn’t so much from what I can work out.

  24. The 538 podcast had some coverage of the Aus election last week, with some UK pol scis who do a podcast called Talking Politics. They also had a segment on the Aus election.

    Some of their takes were:

    – comparing the Aus result to Trumpism or Brexit doesn’t get you far. The populist factor didn’t work in the same way here.
    -centre left/progressive parties are mostly underperforming relative to expectations around the world at the moment. There are isolated exceptions. There’s no particular reason to think it’s a long term trend.
    – the prominence of climate change in our election was notable and there is a real and concerning risk that the result will be interpreted in other places as a warning for political parties to stay clear of (relatively) ambitious climate mitigation policies.
    – the UK contributors said our result felt like deja vu, being similar to their 1992 result. John Major, accidental and newly minted PM leads a dispirited and divided Tory government to an unexpected re-election against a Labour Party that is offering a big picture program and that assumes (based on polling among other things) that victory is a fait accompli. Shock ensues.
    – in Aus historical terms our election should be viewed in the context that conservative national governments are the norm and ALP governments less common.
    Worth a listen

  25. Lucky Creed,
    Pacific islanders are not an homogeneous group either. A lot of them allied to Labor but also Christian practice their faith, not by following the Prosperity Gospel or the letter of the law of the Bible, but by doing what Jesus would. 🙂

  26. Confessions @ #785 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 5:15 pm

    Dan G:

    I started watching S2 of Bad Blood last night. In my opinion it’s good, but not as good as S1. Noting however, that S1 was based on actual events whereas S2 isn’t so much from what I can work out.

    I’m 2 episodes into s2 at the moment. Seems OK so far, but will have to watch the whole thing before passing judgement on it.

    You’re right, S1 was based on a book which was based on real events, and it ended pretty much where the book ended. S2 is completely fictional though which explains the difference in “tone”.

    I’ll stick with it until the end though, as it’s still head and shoulders above anything on FTA TV. Much as I did with Narcos. S1 of that was ok, nothing flash. S2 was a lot better, and s3 was a cracker. Patience, as they say, brings its own rewards.

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 7:24 pm
    Lucky Creed,
    Pacific islanders are not an homogeneous group either. A lot of them allied to Labor but also Christian practice their faith, not by following the Prosperity Gospel or the letter of the law of the Bible, but by doing what Jesus would.

    A lot of people from the South Pacific nations are traditionally Methodist and in Australia are with the Uniting Church which has a reputation for social justice.

    On the other hand, the Mormons have been active in the South Pacific and also the happy clapper types. The “send gays to hell” footballer is one of those.

  28. I wonder why the AFP waited over a year to act on the leak being referred to it by Department of Defence? That is odd.

  29. Laura Tingle on 7.30 is a wet fish to put it mildly.
    Q to Frydenberg .. is it appropriate for police to raid journalist, Answer, not appropriate to comment.. Oh alright then next story.. Too shallow for words.

  30. Dan G:

    I’m 4 episodes in and already the plot is implausible to me.

    The same thing happened with the Handmaid’s Tale. S1 based on a book and ended at the end of the book. S2 plot stretched credulity that I gave up after a few episodes.

  31. Rex

    The Greens are talking about the creation of the 180,000 jobs that will come through investment in renewables and a clean energy export industry.

    Tell DiNatale to take it up with Scott, I’m sure he will take the advice on board.

  32. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 5:24 pm
    lizzie,
    Topham and Guerin are CrosbyTextor young Turks. They learned their craft at the knee of Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor. Also in America.

    But it’s probably why they nicked the Back in Black imagery, being originally from NZ.
    __________________________________________________
    Not sure your Menzies House handlers would appreciate you talking out of school about the team.

  33. Confessions @ #794 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 7:48 pm

    I wonder why the AFP waited over a year to act on the leak being referred to it by Department of Defence? That is odd.

    Quentin Dempster reckons the leak came from one of Spuds opponents in the cabinet and he now has a chance to square the ledger, presuming that person no longer has any influence.

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