Tidying up

Full preference counts should start unrolling over the next few days, but we’re probably still a fortnight away from being sure of the exact composition of the Senate.

So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.

Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.

As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.

There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.

We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

866 comments on “Tidying up”

  1. Bloody hell. What a fiasco at ANU
    “We believe there was unauthorised access to significant amounts of personal staff, student and visitor data extending back 19 years,” Professor Schmidt said.
    “Depending on the information you have provided to the university, this may include names, addresses, dates of birth, phone numbers, personal email addresses and emergency contact details, tax file numbers, payroll information, bank account details, and passport details. Student academic records were also accessed.”

  2. Just hours after the Australian Federal Police raided the home of high-profile journalist Annika Smethurst, broadcaster Ben Fordham has revealed he’s also being targeted for his reporting.

    The 2GB Drive presenter and Sky News contributor revealed that he is the subject of a probe over his story yesterday about six asylum seeker boats attempting to reach Australia.

    An hour after his report went to air yesterday, his producer was contacted by an official from the Department of Home Affairs to advise the material was “highly confidential”.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australian-federal-police-raid-political-editor-annika-smethursts-home-over-spy-story/news-story/135c27ced2becde0333c0ef61d901007

  3. Gladys Liu only got in because the electorate picked up Glen Waverley… The swings in Blackburn in particular were very heavy to the ALP (in the order of 10%)…

  4. An hour after his report went to air yesterday, his producer was contacted by an official from the Department of Home Affairs to advise the material was “highly confidential”.

    But don’t call Peter Dutton a fascist. It hurts his feelings. 🙂

  5. Many voices have piled in against this raid.

    News Corp Australia, publisher of news.com.au, has condemned this morning’s raid.

    “The Australian public’s right to know information about government laws that could impact their lives is of fundamental importance in our society,” it said in a statement.

    “This raid demonstrates a dangerous act of intimidation towards those committed to telling uncomfortable truths. The raid was outrageous and heavy handed.

    “News Corp Australia has expressed the most serious concerns about the willingness of governments to undermine the Australian public’s right to know about important decisions Governments are making that can and will impact ordinary Australian citizens.

    “What’s gone on this morning sends clear and dangerous signals to journalists and newsrooms across Australia. This will chill public interest reporting.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australian-federal-police-raid-political-editor-annika-smethursts-home-over-spy-story/news-story/135c27ced2becde0333c0ef61d901007

  6. The Greens are a party trying to gain power, fair enough, it is what political parties do.
    The problem is by ganging up with the Liberals they are delaying environmental action, and destroying action taken. The question is how does Labor stop this damage. It certainly isn’t by tolerating their sanctimonious crap

  7. Oh poor dears Lizzie

    Clearly the memo wasn’t circulated wide enough to the NewsCorp staff

    Tough

    I’m wondering how many of them are feeling

  8. Nick Feik
    @NickFeik
    42m42 minutes ago

    Retail sales down, 10000 jobs axed by Telstra, residential building approvals down, house prices still falling, below-target inflation, stalled wages, interest rates cut to record low.
    Now would be a good time for the govt to formulate an actual plan.

  9. BK @ #693 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 3:48 pm

    Centrelink does it again!
    https://thewest.com.au/news/australia/centrelink-error-creates-4000-childcare-debt-trap-for-parents-ng-b881218611z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1559602657755

    This is what happens when an organization is under-resourced both in staff and equipment. It’s IT is not upgraded in a sensible manner and no account is taken of the steadily increasing demands on the organization. Standard prep to privatizing.

  10. lizzie says: Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 4:00 pm

    Many voices have piled in against this raid.

    “News Corp Australia has expressed the most serious concerns about the willingness of governments to undermine the Australian public’s right to know about important decisions Governments are making that can and will impact ordinary Australian citizens.

    ********************************************

    So – Ruperts News Corp stooges that massively helped the libs get elected are being bitten on the arse by its own police force – Karma is a bitch ain’t it …..

  11. Karvelas vs Chalmers on ABC24

    I give a clear win for Chalmers who called out the Govt on their terrible economic record. Very strong and clear messaging. Comfortably handled the strong Karvelas grilling.

    Chalmers is Labors best asset re communication/CPG interviews.

  12. briefly says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 3:41 pm

    …”This is a public service announcement”…

    No, it isn’t.

    Perhaps you could revert to posting long screeds about macro-economics?
    That is clearly an area for which you have considerable knowledge and expertise and I have personally gained a great deal of insight from reading what you have written on the subject in the past.
    Because you did so in clear, straightforward terms that even a dumbarse like me could understand.
    At a time of great economic instability and change, you input would be invaluable and much appreciated.

    Cheers.

  13. frednk @ #699 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 4:03 pm

    The Greens are a party trying to gain power, fair enough, it is what political parties do.
    The problem is by ganging up with the Liberals they are delaying environmental action, and destroying action taken. The question is how does Labor stop this damage. It certainly isn’t by tolerating their sanctimonious crap

    Labor will improve their position with factually based policy sold effectively by competent ministers and media managers. Simple as that.

  14. caf
    Yeah. Straight after the election. How good is that!
    Let’s hope that every single one of the 4000 voted Liberal, Nationals, One Nation, United Australia Party or Greens and that they can actually sort themselves out within the next three years.

  15. Sooo 2GB and Mordor Media peeps are visited by Herr Kipfler’s secret squirrels. Pete will be finding himself off Rupes’ xmas card list and discovering in his battle with KK the headlines not so friendly.

  16. John Mendoza@johno0910
    4h4 hours ago

    Wow – so the grand Roundtable on #suicide in Melbourne today called by Greg Hunt is a hour long meeting!! No papers, no agenda, nothing. What a disgraceful sideshow!

  17. poroti @ #718 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 4:22 pm

    Sooo 2GB and Mordor Media peeps are visited by Herr Kipfler’s secret squirrels. Pete will be finding himself off Rupes’ xmas card list and discovering in his battle with KK the headlines not so friendly.

    They are no longer useful. They’ll butter them up again in 3 years.

  18. C@tmomma

    The media groups involved would have no problem with knocking off the Dutton ‘chicken’ so as to frighten the Coalition ‘monkey’. We shall soon find out when we see how they report on the Dutton v KK ‘fight’.

  19. So, I daresay someone out there (not me of course 😉 .. ) will no doubt speculate that the AFP now raid journo’s phones/computers to get their sources of information and pass them on to their political favourites. Pretty scary to think about and these legislative powers were passed by who… ?

  20. poroti @ #723 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 4:37 pm

    C@tmomma

    The media groups involved would have no problem with knocking off the Dutton ‘chicken’ so as to frighten the Coalition ‘monkey’. We shall soon find out when we see how they report on the Dutton v KK ‘fight’.

    Well, the reporting BEFORE the raid was firmly on Dutts side, saying that KK was ‘flustered’ in trying to state Labor’s position on the Manus and Nauru refugees.

    I wonder if that will change now, AFTER the raid? 🙂

  21. Well it didn’t take long for the good governing to start again. Josh “the dog ate my surplus” Frydenberg blames the banks for not passing on the rate cut. What can he do to run the economy? After all, he is only the Treasurer.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-04/rba-cuts-interest-rates-to-a-fresh-record-low/11176306

    Meanhwhile ScoMo has a message for all retirees: “Too bad about your savings interest income. Thanks for all your votes, suckers!”

    And yes, as for the AFP raid on News Corp, what is the world coming too? Murdoch journalists treated like union officials? Shame on all those who voted to give the AFP so much power in the past under the guise of “national security”, including the complicit fools in Labor.

  22. How many Labor members here are going to walk into their next branch meetings and say how politically stupid and environmentally stupid Joel Fitzgibbon and Labor are for indefinitely backing in more coal mining/exporting ..?

  23. Socrates @ #729 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 4:55 pm

    ….

    And yes, as for the AFP raid on News Corp, what is the world coming too? Murdoch journalists treated like union officials? Shame on all those who voted to give the AFP so much power in the past under the guise of “national security”, including the complicit fools in Labor.

    We’re now a police state

  24. It would have been nice for the media to have got a Cash/AWU type of leak so they could have vision of the News Corp raid. Now that WOULD have been karmic!

  25. Astrobleme says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 2:58 pm
    “They hate us.”
    – what is this? This is not the ravings of a person who thinks that it is fine to have opposing political parties.

    How would you know the personal opinion of all Greens voters?

    The point is that G-voters have been duped by the G-operators. G-voters believe they are voting for a Labor proxy when they vote Green. They’re not. They’re voting for an outfit that actively campaigns against Labor all the time. One of the consequences of this campaign is that the Liberals find it much easier to win elections. It’s fair to say that in voting Green, such voters are choosing self-defeat. They are voting against their own hopes.

  26. Rex Douglas says: Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 4:58 pm

    Socrates @ #729 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 4:55 pm….

    And yes, as for the AFP raid on News Corp, what is the world coming too? Murdoch journalists treated like union officials? Shame on all those who voted to give the AFP so much power in the past under the guise of “national security”, including the complicit fools in Labor.

    We’re now a police state

    **************************************************

    Yep – let’s shutdown and shut up anyone who dares speak/write criticism of the Liberal Party or its policies ….

  27. A low-profile Kiwi digital and creative agency was in the thick of the ‘miracle’, come-from-behind campaign that saw Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Liberal Party re-elected.

    Topham Guerin, established just three years ago, helped the Liberals outgun Bill Shorten’s Labor campaign with high octane digital messaging, deploying videos and ads around the clock.

    Founder Sean Topham was based at the party’s national campaign centre in Brisbane with members of his Auckland staff and has been credited in Australian media reviews of the campaign with helping execute a digital campaign that swamped Labor.

    Topham, a former head of the National Party’s ‘Young Nats; youth wing, and fellow former Young Nat Ben Guerin, 23, set up their agency in 2016 after personal stints working on political campaigns in the UK and elsewhere. They worked for Bill English’s losing campaign in 2017, and have used their skills in digital and video disciplines for winning Liberals’ state campaigns in New South Wales and South Australia.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2019/05/29/608592/kiwis-who-helped-get-scomo-across-the-line

  28. The Liberals believe that a market economy will run itself, that left to itself a market economy will always revert to an output/income maximising trajectory. They must be very puzzled to discover this is not happening…that it has not happened at all since they came to power. They do not know what to do. Consequently, they will do nothing much. But they will blame Labor. They will blame unions. They will blame ‘green-tape’ and ‘red-tape’. They will cut the budget.

  29. presenting the climate strategy as part of a package with increased welfare spending

    @tveitdal
    7m7 minutes ago

    Finland to be carbon neutral by 2035. One of the fastest targets ever set https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/03/finland-carbon-neutral-2035-one-fastest-targets-ever-set/
    Incoming PM Rinne told reporters it was time to “invest in the future”, presenting the climate strategy as part of a package with increased welfare spending Monday

  30. But, but why does Finland care? They’re only a drop in the bucket and what they do makes no difference to the world. They should be lazy, polluting, coal-exporting do-nothings like Australia. Or something.

  31. Rex, I will be going to the next Labor Branch meeting to remind them that just as the Greens set out to vilify coal miners, so did Margaret Thatcher. The Greens are wearing Thatcher’s mantle. They are hostile to workers. The Green Party – the apparatchiks – are hostile to the Labor Movement.

    The G-machine is Thatcherite in its practice and to a surprising degree in its rhetoric. They aim their criticisms at Labor, just as Thatcher did.

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