Tidying up

Full preference counts should start unrolling over the next few days, but we’re probably still a fortnight away from being sure of the exact composition of the Senate.

So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.

Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.

As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.

There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.

We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

866 comments on “Tidying up”

  1. meher baba…..the Greens and Thatcher have made ground by the use of a common device – the vilification of coal miners. They did so for the same reason: to promote their own political goals.

    Without any doubt, the Greens would not see themselves as Thatcher-like. This simply goes to their total lack of insight into their strategies – to the depth of their delirium.

    The Greens, like Thatcher, exploit workers politically. The Greens, like the Liberals, exploit asylum-seekers politically. The Greens, like the Liberals, exploit divisions over the environment. These voices are not interested in solutions to problems. They seek only to exploit the problems. In the case of the Greens, they exploit these issues in order to attack their main targets, Labor. The same is true of the Liberals. And likewise, Thatcher used coal miners to besiege UK Labour.

  2. meher baba says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 1:01 pm

    …”And I’ll also appeal directly to briefly: if there’s anyone who reads PB who hasn’t yet got your message that the Liberals and the Greens are in an unholy alliance to stop Labor from winning elections, then it’s too late to persuade them now”…

    …”Of course, if the intention of your posts is satire, then I will apologise and withdraw my criticism”…

    Briefly is in fact a libling spy, sent here by the forces of evil to drive all Labor supporters into a depressive funk for the entire term of this parliament.
    There is no point attempting to reason with him, he will fulfill his mission, whatever the cost may be.

  3. Kate::

    When Nick Ross was bullied and hounded out of the ABC Mediawatch added a few kicks to Nick’s rear end. Not their finest moment…….

    Whilst Nick Ross was brave to do what he did, it was rather undermined by his lack of knowledge. He would have been in a much stronger position had he put the hard yards in to acquire a deep knowledge of the area, but unfortunately he did not. It’s not enough simply to be angry about what has been going on with the NBN – the consequences are extremely complex even if the causes are obvious – and it’s the consequences that matter . I do wonder what he spent his time on.

  4. Kate

    “why do the Greens attack Labor more than the Libs?”

    At least prove your premise first, what you have is a loaded question.

    My answer of ‘No’ was that I can’t ‘confirm’ anything, because I don’t know if they attack Labor more than Libs, or why they do what they do. I am not ‘The Greens’

  5. Oh the irony

    A NewsCorp ‘journalist’ whining about being raided over a ‘anti government’ story

    Sorry dear didn’t you get the memo?

    Resign

  6. “The Greens, like Thatcher, exploit workers politically. The Greens, like the Liberals, exploit asylum-seekers politically. The Greens, like the Liberals, exploit divisions over the environment. These voices are not interested in solutions to problems. They seek only to exploit the problems. In the case of the Greens, they exploit these issues in order to attack their main targets, Labor. The same is true of the Liberals. And likewise, Thatcher used coal miners to besiege UK Labour.”

    Well I am convinced… I mean , yeah it’s all so obvious now.
    The Greens are actually the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher.

  7. Whilst Nick Ross was brave to do what he did, it was rather undermined by his lack of knowledge.

    I think I’ll need some examples of how he managed to incorrectly bag the Coalition’s NBN. It doesn’t seem possible. FTTN is (and always was) just fancy-talk for “we’re going to leave you with the same shitty, dead-end copper wires you already have and just make some signaling changes at the cabinet to pretend like we’re doing something”.

  8. Astro, so there is no doubt, I welcome the truth. The Greens are competitors. At last the facts are out there. We can deal with reality instead of with the illusion that we’re on the same side. We’re not. We never were. We never will be.

    The Gs can compile their PV share with that of the other Lib clones. In all, the sum is about 2/3 voters, now subscribing to reactionary parties.

  9. Sackwatch update via various sources requiring confirmation

    All Big W stores to be closed by end of June in SA, WA and Tasmania.

    Officeworks to undertake a review of underperforming stores with at least 40% of Victorian stores likely to be closed

  10. Nick Ross was kicked out of the ABC because Malcolm asked them to. Nick criticised the trashing of the NBN and it cost him his job.

    Your complaint seems to be that Nick got the minutiae wrong – hardly on his own there although he was the only journo to be pushed out (the attempts made on Probyn didn’t succeed although Alberici seems to have been successfully sidelined).

  11. Attacking coal miners worked very well for Margaret Thatcher. It hurt UK Labour very deeply. They have yet to really recover. Attacking coal miners is working for the Greens too. Same/Same.

  12. Sgh1969 @ #653 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    Sackwatch update via various sources requiring confirmation

    All Big W stores to be closed by end of June in SA, WA and Tasmania.

    Officeworks to undertake a review of underperforming stores with at least 40% of Victorian stores likely to be closed

    Charitable for them to wait until after the election. How long will this take to filter through to the official unemployment statistics?

  13. The Reserve Bank has cut its official interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a new record low of 1.25 per cent.

    While it is the first change in the RBA’s policy setting since August 2016, it was a widely expected result.

  14. Yes Briefly, the Greens probably do want to “eat our young”. I think that is what competitive politics in a democracy is about. Hell, I want Labor to eat enough of the Coalition’s “young” to win the next election.
    The Greens are entitled to run as many candidates as they want and to aspire to be a major party. That is the right of all political movements. Of course, if the Greens ever do achieve this ambition it will be at Labor’s expense, because our political configurations dictate that there cannot be two big left-of-centre parties, or two large right-of-centre parties for that matter.
    Interestingly, if the Greens ever did replace Labor as the main opposition to the Coalition, that party would find itself just as compromised as Labor sometimes is now, because that is what it would take to win elections.
    The reason the Greens are so pure is because they have no chance of forming government in the foreseeable future.
    All that being said, it is still obvious, or should be, who is part of the broad left family and who is its enemy.
    I cannot treat a party which stands for climate action, reconciliation with our First Nations, freedom of information and taxing the super wealthy as an enemy of Labor or of its base.
    Fight with the Greens where appropriate, but like Albo, I prefer to fight Tories.

  15. a r @ #658 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:43 pm

    Sgh1969 @ #653 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    Sackwatch update via various sources requiring confirmation

    All Big W stores to be closed by end of June in SA, WA and Tasmania.

    Officeworks to undertake a review of underperforming stores with at least 40% of Victorian stores likely to be closed

    Charitable for them to wait until after the election. How long will this take to filter through to the official unemployment statistics?

    Could a journalist with an ounce of integrity ask Morrison how this will affect his claim to add 1.25 million new jobs in the next 3 years?

    Oh wait, I see the problem. Ther aren’t any journalists with an ounce of integrity left. They’ve also been given the Royal Order of the Boot.

  16. phoenixRED @ #663 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:47 pm

    Earlier Today :

    Telstra to axe 10,000 contractors

    Telstra will axe a quarter of its contractors over the next two years, as it continues the massive cost cutting program at the centre of its T22 strategy.

    The cuts, which will see 10,000 jobs disappear, come on top of the 8000 cuts to Telstra’s permanent staff by 2022.

    https://www.afr.com/business/telecommunications/telstra-to-axe-10-000-contractors-20190604-p51u9g

    I wonder how many of them voted for the Liberal Party, the ‘party of small business’?

    Suckers!

  17. I realise I’m probably in the minority here but, I really hate the Liberal party.
    Greens don’t bother me.

    I know, wrong isn’t.

  18. Sir Henry, the Green’s ostensibly progressive positions are just a sham. When the chips are down, they campaign for the defeat of Labor. They hate us. We have to get used to it. They will betray Labor as soon as look at us. We must never be in a position where we rely on their goodwill. They have only ill-will for Labor, for the unions, for the achievements of Labor in the 20th century. Like the Liberals, they want to photoshop the pics; to eliminate Labor from the record.

    They are a scam.

  19. BK @ #667 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:52 pm

    Cash rate cut by 25 points:
    _____
    How good is the Coalition’s economy!

    Hope Jim Chalmers tells us soon, and reminds us tomorrow, and revisits it Thursday, and puts out a press release Friday, cracks a joke about it Saturday, ridicules the coalitions economic management Sunday then goes back around Monday, the……

  20. BK

    Welcome to the recession.

    A friend of mine ran into the smug newly minted Liberal member for Chisholm yesterday and asked her views regarding the economy. He was shopping. And grabbing a coffee.

    The charming Ms Liu brushed my friend aside and retorted ‘get a job is the best thing’ and kept walking.

    My friend just happens to own and run one of Melbourne’s biggest bus companies.

    This willl not go unnoticed m.

  21. Astro, the Gs helped drive sections of the working class to lodge protest votes with ON. ON are a front for an edited remake of National Socialism. G-games have made the Right stronger. You should be ashamed of yourselves.

  22. briefly @ #669 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:53 pm

    Sir Henry, the Green’s ostensibly progressive positions are just a sham. When the chips are down, they campaign for the defeat of Labor. They hate us. We have to get used to it. They will betray Labor as soon as look at us. We must never be in a position where we rely on their goodwill. They have only ill-will for Labor, for the unions, for the achievements of Labor in the 20th century. Like the Liberals, they want to photoshop the pics; to eliminate Labor from the record.

    They are a scam.

    Get a grip, you’re cracking up Briefo. For god sakes man have a lie down youo’ll blow an o-ring!

  23. “They hate us.”
    – what is this? This is not the ravings of a person who thinks that it is fine to have opposing political parties.

    How would you know the personal opinion of all Greens voters?
    I don’t hate the Labor Party, and I voted for them 4th in the House and Senate – they got my house vote.

  24. “Astro, the Gs helped drive sections of the working class to lodge protest votes with ON. ON are a front for an edited remake of National Socialism. G-games have made the Right stronger. You should be ashamed of yourselves.”

    How would you know that? How could you possibly have any idea if this is true.
    Do you have even an ounce of self-skepticism?

  25. Holden Hillbilly says:

    The Reserve Bank has cut its official interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a new record low of 1.25 per cent.

    Ah the good old days. When HoJo was screaming the low interest rate under Labor at the time (double what it is now! ) proved how terrible the “debt and deficit disastered” economy was under Labor ‘mismanagement’. The wonder that is Hockeynomics and HoJo’s Eleventy calculator will I am sure explain the difference.

  26. Honest Bastard says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 1:15 pm

    …”Perhaps he could select someone who wants to take on the job of providing more strong moderation”…

    Unfortunately, choosing a volunteer moderator would require the selection of a committee, which could only be done via its own comprehensive 12 to 18 month selection process.

    This process itself would involve consultation with both public and private stakeholder representatives, followed by an intensive, year long committee of review.

    Choice of prospective candidates from the short list would need to be fairly weighted so as to give equal representation, based both on party factional alignment and gender identification, and also take into consideration state of origin of each candidate.

    This would need to be followed by a Senate inquiry into the process, a royal commission and finally a signed ministerial authorisation.

  27. BK:

    [‘How good is the Coalition’s economy!’]

    Hard to judge. With personal debt levels so high, I don’t think too many mortgagors will be engaging in retail therapy.

  28. Astrobleme @ #673 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:58 pm

    This is not the ravings of a person who thinks that it is fine to have opposing political parties.

    Correct, it’s the purely objective reporting of someone so deeply involved with the Greens that they’re privy to all of the party’s internal thoughts, feelings, and electoral strategies. 🙂

  29. Frydenberg’s been out beating the big stick and the ANZ has folded and reduced its own rates by 0.18%.
    Yeah Josh, you’ve really got the banks rattled.

  30. “Correct, it’s the purely objective reporting of someone so deeply involved with the Greens that they’re privy to all of the party’s internal thoughts, feelings, and electoral strategies. ”

    yes, some sort of ‘Stable Genius’ perhaps?

  31. Sgh1969 @ #671 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 2:54 pm

    BK

    Welcome to the recession.

    A friend of mine ran into the smug newly minted Liberal member for Chisholm yesterday and asked her views regarding the economy. He was shopping. And grabbing a coffee.

    The charming Ms Liu brushed my friend aside and retorted ‘get a job is the best thing’ and kept walking.

    My friend just happens to own and run one of Melbourne’s biggest bus companies.

    This willl not go unnoticed m.

    I predict Ms Liu will be trouble with a capital ‘T’ for Scott Morrison.

  32. Guy Rundle, an acknowledged supporter of The Greens, in today’s Crikey:

    results in the House did not live up to expectations. In Victoria — whose slight Senate dip probably indicates saturation — the party pivoted away from the inner-north, to the inner south-east, with Julian Burnside running in Kooyong, Jason Ball in Higgins, and Stephanie Hodgins-May in MacNamara (formerly Melbourne Ports).

    They fell short in all. The hope that MacNamara’s boho areas around St Kilda and Prahran would give a majority did not eventuate; with the departure of right-wing Labor MP Michael Danby, Labor’s vote went up. In Higgins, Melbourne’s inner-east, the swing to the left was around 8%. But it all went to the parachuted-in Labor candidate, hot-shot lawyer Fiona McLeod. The Greens’ Jason Ball, despite a valiant campaign, went backwards with a 2% swing against, gaining 22%

    How’s those 3 or 4 Lower House seats in Victoria going, nath? 😀

  33. So what did HoJo and the Coalition say back in the day at 2.5%

    …..the RBA cut official interest rates to 2.5 per cent ………
    Joe Hockey says rates cut reveals struggling economy

    “they’re not cutting interest rates because the economy is doing well. Interest rates are being cut to 50 year lows because the economy is struggling.”

    “if your argument is that the lower the interest rates the better the economy, go and ask the British or the Americans or the Europeans that have interest rates at zero how their economies are going because I tell you what, we are now beyond emergency levels.”
    https://thekouk.com/blog/joe-hockey-and-emergency-interest-rates.html

  34. Checking the AEC site, The Greens received a primary vote of 1,473,411; 10.37%; an overall swing of
    +0.14. And just for a laugh, Love Australia or Leave PV stands at 1,564 – +0.01 on its last shot.

  35. C@t

    Ms Liu is a charming person

    NOT

    She is a nasty, arrogant and racist individual.

    Only interested in her people (whatever that means) and doesn’t care about the big picture.

    Lots of despair in Box Hill etc

  36. On the subject of moderator.
    It’s William’s blog and we live by his rules. I think he does a brilliant job and is very patient with us, even when he is studying the entrails of an election. I doubt that a volunteer would be as objective.

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