Tidying up

Full preference counts should start unrolling over the next few days, but we’re probably still a fortnight away from being sure of the exact composition of the Senate.

So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.

Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.

As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.

There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.

We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

866 comments on “Tidying up”

  1. lizzie @ #594 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Peter Brown

    Verified account

    @SydneyEditor
    4m4 minutes ago

    #Breaking: Federal police officers are raiding the home of News Corp Australia journalist @annikasmethurst over a story about a secret government plan to spy on Australians. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/federal-police-raid-news-corp-journalist-annika-smethursts-home-over-a-secret-government-spy-plan-story/news-story/f42c2e9ab7e1269503428deb6a5f668f … @dailytelegraph

    It didn’t take them long after the election to get into the really heavy duty intimidation, did it?

  2. Jonathan Swan taking America by storm!

    JARED KUSHNER WASN’T INVOLVED IN THAT, OKAY?
    Jared Kushner, special adviser and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, carries an immense amount of responsibility in the current administration. He’s in charge of brokering a peace deal between Israel and Palestine, revamping immigration policy, solving the opioid epidemic, reforming the criminal justice system and fixing health care for U.S. military veterans. He also dabbles in diplomatic policy with China and Mexico on the side.

    But for someone so important, he rarely talks to the press.

    That’s why his interview on Axios’ new HBO show Sunday night was so enlightening. This was not the typical sympathetic Fox News interview that the Trump administration often agrees to, reporter Jonathan Swan asked multiple follow-ups and held Kushner to the questions he tried to skirt.

    Here were some of the most revealing moments:

    Kushner refused to say whether Obama-era birtherism is racist

    Swan mentioned to Kushner that politicans like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have repeatedly called the president a racist, and then asked him if he had “ever seen [Trump] say or do anything that you would describe as racist or bigoted.” Kushner said “absolutely not,” but then Swan asked directly about the president’s claims that President Barack Obama was not born in the U.S. and his demands to see a birth certificate.

    “Um, look, I wasn’t really involved in that,” said Kushner. Swan pushed Kushner, saying he knew he wasn’t, but he has asked if it was racist.

    “Like I said, I wasn’t involved in that,” Kushner insisted. “Look, I know who the president is and I have not seen anything in him that is racist. So again, I was not involved in that.”

    Swan pointed out that Kushner had been involved in campaign promises to ban Muslims from entering the country. “Would you describe that as religiously bigoted?” Swan asked.

    “Look, I think that the president did his campaign the way he did his campaign,” Kushner replied. “But do you wish he didn’t, do you wish he didn’t make that speech?” Swan asked again. In December of 2015 the president discussed banning all Muslims from entering the U.S. during a rally. “I think he’s here today and I think he’s doing a lot of great things for the country, and that’s what I’m proud of,” Kushner said, evading the question.

    The Khashoggi Question

    Kushner, who is pals with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman punted a question about whether he should be held responsible for the death of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi was critical of the Saudi royal family and was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October of 2018.

    Kushner said he was still waiting for the results of an official investigation before he would comment on whether MBS was involved, but the CIA said that the crown prince had ordered the murder.

    “Look, it’s a horrific thing that happened,” said Kushner. “Once we have all the facts, then we’ll make a policy determination, but that would be up to the secretary of state to push on our policy.”

    Later on Sunday, the president was asked by reporters about the incident and whether he blamed the crown prince for the death. “When did this come up again?” Trump asked. “What are you back … are you back four months ago? No.”

    Kushner might not talk to the FBI about Russia

    Swan asked Kushner about his decision not to contact the FBI after a Kremlin-adjacent lawyer took a meeting with the Trump campaign in the summer of 2016 and offered to help their efforts.

    “On June 8, 2016, you were sent an email with an offer of help for the Trump campaign from the Russian government,” said Swan. “My question to you is why didn’t you pick up the phone and call the FBI? It was an email that said Russia. That said the Russian government was trying to help. Like, why didn’t you do that?”

    Kushner deflected, saying it wasn’t a big deal. “Like I said, the email that I got on my iPhone [setting up the meeting] at the time basically said show up at 4. I didn’t scroll down, I never would’ve thought about that email,” he said. The subject line had Russia in it, said Swan. “Again, I would get about 250 emails a day and I literally saw ‘show up at 4,’” he said.

    When asked if he would contact the FBI if another similar situation arose, Kushner said he wasn’t sure. “I don’t know,” he said. “It’s hard to do hypotheticals, but the reality is is that we were not given anything that was salacious.”

    Kushner on abortion

    As fights about the constitutional right to abortion access heat up across the country, President Donald Trump has made his thoughts on the topic clear: He doesn’t support it.

    But Kushner showed that he might not be in agreement with the president on that one. Swan asked Kushner if he stood with the president to which Kushner replied “I was not the person who was elected.”

    “So you agree with the president’s position?” Swan asked. “I’m here to enforce his positions. His position is the one that as a staffer in the White House, we’ll work to push,” he replied.

  3. Federal police officers are raiding the home of News Corp Australia journalist @annikasmethurst over a story about a secret government plan to spy on Australians. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/federal-police-raid-news-corp-journalist-annika-smethursts-home-over-a-secret-government-spy-plan-story/news-story/f42c2e9ab7e1269503428deb6a5f668f … @dailytelegraph

    That may as well be taken as an admission that the story is true. Pretty sure you can’t get the police to raid someone over possessing knowledge of government plans that don’t exist.

  4. Ben Raue’s latest:

    Once you notice the trend of Liberal areas (particularly those with higher education and income levels) swinging towards Labor while Labor areas swing to the Coalition, you start to see the trend all over the place.

    One particularly good example is in the marginal Liberal seat of Swan in the inner suburbs of Perth. Swan covers trendy inner-city areas like South Perth and Victoria Park, but also includes more suburban areas at the eastern end of the seat, such as Belmont, Cloverdale and Cannington.

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38854#more-38854

  5. Sadly nath, while your pathological obsession was mystifying to me… yes, Labor needs a popular leader to win government.

    I respected Shorten, but I can’t recall anyone I’ve heard more negative commentary (most of it baseless, but what does that matter?) about as a leader besides Abbott.

    Fact is a fact.

  6. a r @ #598 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 12:05 pm

    Federal police officers are raiding the home of News Corp Australia journalist @annikasmethurst over a story about a secret government plan to spy on Australians. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/federal-police-raid-news-corp-journalist-annika-smethursts-home-over-a-secret-government-spy-plan-story/news-story/f42c2e9ab7e1269503428deb6a5f668f … @dailytelegraph

    That may as well be taken as an admission that the story is true. Pretty sure you can’t get the police to raid someone over possessing knowledge of government plans that don’t exist.

    Weren’t the Coalition thinking about introducing the Chinese Social Credit system?

  7. The obsession with Trump on PB (and elsewhere) is tiresome. Particularly when it gets as trivial as discussion of his attire.

  8. Has there been much consideration and discussion of possible Section 44 challenges on PB? I know they have to wait until writs are issued but it seems to me that there is a good possibility of a number of challenges being mounted and I wouldn’t rule out some being successful.

  9. @Honest Bastard

    So?

    Plenty of people made fun of politics figures choice of clothing.

    Bishops red shoe for example,
    Julia Gillard glasses.

    Which started the whole “The Real Gillard” crap.

  10. Z and c@t
    I suspect the next election will be a free for all. You can hardly blame either side. Enough of the media will report it and the public believe it to make a post truth campaign worthwhile. Trump does it full time and he’s still about 50:50 to be re-elected.

  11. The Greens certainly took some of Labor’s PV in Queensland. The Greens were up 1.5% to record a very good result of 10.3. The ALP on the other hand lost 4.2% down to a miserable 26.7%. Perhaps it is in Queensland where the Greens can first displace the ALP as the major party of the left. Interesting.

  12. …and an overwhelming proportion of that went back to the ALP through preferences.

    What was the killer was the leakage of ALP primaries to UAP and ONP and then flowing to the LNP. Basically it was the EXACT opposite of what was expected.

  13. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 11:03 am

    Barney
    I trust you are enjoying Makasser. We had the best time there. After a very bibulous evening that involved ingesting pig’s ears, we were invited by our host to a wedding by one of the local very wealthy persons. What would the wedding be like, we wondered? The bit that put us off was where the guests throw their credit cards onto a blanket so that the happy couple can choose their gifts…
    The other bit that was excellent was where a local guide drove us around the district and provided local commentary.

    Yep, I’m liking it very much.

    The people are great and the place has a rustic madness feel to it.

    At the moment I’m limited to my feet and taxis, so I’m slowly discovering the place and once Ramadan is over I should be able to get my own bike which will make exploring easier.

    Interesting you mentioned “pig’s ears”, at my first social outing last week, the menu contained roast pork and beer. Not what I was expecting. The local drop was quite palatable and the pork superb. Obviously not Muslims. 🙂

  14. https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australian-federal-police-raid-political-editor-annika-smethursts-home-over-spy-story/news-story/135c27ced2becde0333c0ef61d901007

    Australian Federal Police officers are raiding the home of a prominent political journalist over a report about a top secret government spy plan.

    Annika Smethurst, the Walkley Award-winning political editor of The Sunday Telegraph, was confronted by several police at her Canberra home this morning with a warrant to search the premises, her mobile phone and her computer.

    It apparently concerns a report published in April last year that the departments of Defence and Home Affairs were considering new powers that would allow Australians to be monitored for the first time.

    In the story, it’s reported that Ms Smethurst’s original article included images of top secret letters between Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo and Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty.

  15. nath @ #609 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 12:47 pm

    The Greens certainly took some of Labor’s PV in Queensland. The Greens were up 1.5% to record a very good result of 10.3. The ALP on the other hand lost 4.2% down to a miserable 26.7%. Perhaps it is in Queensland where the Greens can first displace the ALP as the major party of the left. Interesting.

    I’ll file this under, ‘Wishful Thinking’. 😐

  16. Every day or so I return to this forum looking for a debate about something interesting. And mostly all I find is endless, tedious Greens-bashing.

    I know that William doesn’t like being asked to intervene too much in debates on here, but I think I speak on behalf of many in wishing that the quantity of this stuff could somehow be reduced.

    And I’ll also appeal directly to briefly: if there’s anyone who reads PB who hasn’t yet got your message that the Liberals and the Greens are in an unholy alliance to stop Labor from winning elections, then it’s too late to persuade them now. The more you ramp up the rhetoric, the more bizarre it starts to sound: eg, your latest argument that the Greens are somehow akin to Margaret Thatcher because they both “exploit coalminers.”

    Of course, if the intention of your posts is satire, then I will apologise and withdraw my criticism.

  17. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 11:50 am

    I’m no clothing expert, but isn’t there something wrong with the jacket ?

    The trade war has created a material shortage.

  18. nath says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 12:49 pm

    The Greens also got a very nice bump in S.A, up 3.4% to 9.6. A good development.

    You need to place that in the context of the collapsing Central Alliance vote.

  19. meher baba, I go back to pre-2007 election days with PB (under a different username) and I agree with your point. The quality of discussion has degraded to a very large degree. There are a number of people here who post way too much and are tedious beyond belief. I know you can use a blocking extension for certain usernames but that only solves the problem at a personal level, not at a system level. I also know the job of moderation is an onerous one and so I understand WB’s mostly hands-off approach and keeping his focus on providing his own generally excellent content. Perhaps he could select someone who wants to take on the job of providing more strong moderation (in a volunteer role)? It’s always a difficult problem to address – that over time a forum’s quality of discussion degrades and the better posters are driven away as the narcissists, the unhinged and the gossipers take over.

  20. Honest Bastard @ #618 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 1:15 pm

    meher baba, I go back to pre-2007 election days with PB (under a different username) and I agree with your point. The quality of discussion has degraded to a very large degree. There are a number of people here who post way too much and are tedious beyond belief. I know you can use a blocking extension for certain usernames but that only solves the problem at a personal level, not at a system level. I also know the job of moderation is an onerous one and so I understand WB’s mostly hands-off approach and keeping his focus on providing his own generally excellent content. Perhaps he could select someone who wants to take on the job of providing more strong moderation (in a volunteer role)? It’s always a difficult problem to address – that over time a forum’s quality of discussion degrades and the better posters are driven away as the narcissists, the unhinged and the gossipers take over.

    Free speech. You gotta love it.

  21. poroti says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 11:02 am
    Can we call a truce between the Popular Peoples Front of Judea and the Peoples Popular Front of Judea for long enough to have a bash at the Romans ?
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    I couldn’t agree more poroti.
    As a proud ALP member for many years, and of last night, also a happy constituent of Macquarie following Susan Templeman’s re-election, I have a lot of time for the Greens. I’m not always happy with them, because they still act at times like a party of protest and argument instead of practical action.
    I still haven’t forgiven the Greens for their kyboshing of the emissions-trading scheme back in 2010, when they voted with the climate denialists in the Senate, all because Labor’s proposed scheme did not go as far as they wanted.
    I also agree with those who say the Adani protest into Adani country was a self-indulgent waste of time at best, and an electoral plus for the LNP at worst.
    But the Greens are a progressive party and must be praised for raising progressive issues that the big parties sometimes find a bit difficult to discuss. The Greens have also been responsible for helping to vote much progressive legislation through the parliament.
    Yes, Labor and the Greens will have their differences and will face-off over certain contests in the House of Representatives.
    But know thy enemy.
    It is the COALition that Labor and Greens supporters should be fighting and most posters here should do the same.

  22. After a very bibulous evening that involved ingesting pig’s ears

    Ah! That brings back memories of a meal in Hotan China. I thought it was fungi at first. I was crook as the next 3 days which included a 20h overnight bus trip across the Taklamakan desert.

    I am feeling sick thinking about it.

  23. meher baba…for as long as the Greens persist in publishing myths about Labor, I will reply with the truth about the Greens. They may not see it this way, but the effect off their campaigning is to help sustain the LNP in office. This is without any question a calculated effort by the Green leadership. They are instruments of the reactionaries, whether they like it or not. We have something close to one-party rule at a Federal level in Australia, largely thanks to the efforts of the Greens to frustrate and disable Labor.

  24. ATTENTION LURKERS

    It’s hard to disagree with the assessments provided above by Meher Baba and Honest Bastard, but I don’t believe that responsibility for rectifying the situation has to lie with poor William. A deceptively simple solution is to PLEASE POST MORE OFTEN! To coin a phrase, let’s all try starting with the (wo)man in the mirror.

    #RallyToRestoreSanity

  25. a r says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 11:36 am
    Zoidlord @ #468 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 8:25 am

    NICKROSS:
    @ABCmediawatch are the worst offenders in Aus at bullying journalists.

    “What?! Mediawatch is like the one decent thing they still have left.”

    When Nick Ross was bullied and hounded out of the ABC Mediawatch added a few kicks to Nick’s rear end. Not their finest moment…….

  26. “They are instruments of the reactionaries, whether they like it or not. We have something close to one-party rule at a Federal level in Australia, largely thanks to the efforts of the Greens to frustrate and disable Labor.”

    No Briefly, you’re just a sook who can’t cope with the Greens being a political party that is trying to win.
    Stop sooking.

  27. “No Briefly, you’re just a sook who can’t cope with the Greens being a political party that is trying to win.
    Stop sooking.”

    Astrobleme – that’s perfectly fine. Can you confirm then that attacking Labor much more frequently than the Libs is seen as the most effective way to get more votes.

    That’s fine too but don’t dress it up as a positive for progressive government….

  28. the Greens being a political party that is trying to win

    Yes, they are. Like all the others, and like all the others they have contributed to us being in the woeful state we are in now and have to own their part in that, just as the Labor, Liberal, Nationals parties have to own their part as well, along with the media and, of course, us voters.

    I would note that it is interesting that your formulation isn’t:

    the Greens being a political party that is trying to achieve improved environmental outcomes

  29. Psyclaw @ #588 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 11:40 am

    Please give up your anti- green ranting. We get the message. You don’t have to repeat it 30 times a day, day in day out.

    The ironic part being that if the constant attacks manage to persuade even a single Greens voter to preference the Libs ahead of Labor, they’re doing…exactly the same thing they denounce the Greens for doing.

  30. Simon² Katich® says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 1:36 pm

    After a very bibulous evening that involved ingesting pig’s ears

    Ah! That brings back memories of a meal in Hotan China. I thought it was fungi at first. I was crook as the next 3 days which included a 20h overnight bus trip across the Taklamakan desert.

    I am feeling sick thinking about it.

    China and pork can be very dodgy.

    I remember staying in guest house in Dali, Yunnan.

    It was their 6 month anniversary and I was woken by the screams of a pig being slaughtered in the courtyard.

    I was then invited to the celebrations where the abovementioned pig was the centrepiece of the feast.

    Some parts cooked, some not so.

    Fortunately my lack of Chinese and their lack of English left me oblivious to what parts of the pig the current dish represented.

    Sometimes ignorance is bliss! 🙂

  31. Oh, and once again, nobody who voted Liberal in 2013 gets to accuse anybody else of trying to “frustrate and disable Labor”.

  32. Astrobleme says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 1:53 pm
    “They are instruments of the reactionaries, whether they like it or not. We have something close to one-party rule at a Federal level in Australia, largely thanks to the efforts of the Greens to frustrate and disable Labor.”

    No Briefly, you’re just a sook who can’t cope with the Greens being a political party that is trying to win.
    Stop sooking.

    The word is ‘sulk’.

    I have absolutely no problem with the Greens as competitors. None. I have been depicting them as such for some time now….for many months prior to the election and of course since. It must be at least 5 years since I started objecting to their utterly nauseating sanctimony.

    The Gs are rivals for votes and for power. The sooner that voters become conscious of this, the better it will be for Labor. People see Labor and the Greens as proxies for each other. This is mistaken. The Greens are intent on destroying Labor. I think Labor should return the favour.

    The G campaign is inimical to Labor and positive for the Liberals. This must be understood by everyone.

  33. Kate @ 1:56

    Moderation of a forum is not censorship. People who have comments deleted here or even have their whole account deleted are still free to post their comments elsewhere, perhaps even on their own self-funded server.

    And no, I’m definitely not putting myself forward as a volunteer moderator but I would imagine that there are some here who might be willing to take up the role and who William might judge as being suitable for the role. But having a volunteer moderator was only a suggestion; degradation of forum quality is a hard problem to address.

  34. Kate::

    When Nick Ross was bullied and hounded out of the ABC Mediawatch added a few kicks to Nick’s rear end. Not their finest moment…….

    Whilst Nick Ross was brave to do what he did, it was rather undermined by his lack of knowledge. He would have been in a much stronger position had he put the hard yards in to acquire a deep knowledge of the area, but unfortunately he did not. It’s not enough simply to be angry about what has been going on with the NBN – the consequences are extremely complex even if the causes are obvious – and it’s the consequences that matter . I do wonder what he spent his time on.

  35. Sir Henry, as a fellow member of Labor, with the greatest respect, you’re allowing the Greens far too much latitude. They are not our allies in any sense at all. They are cuckoos. They want to eat our young.

  36. itsthevibe says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 2:03 pm
    Oh, and once again, nobody who voted Liberal in 2013 gets to accuse anybody else of trying to “frustrate and disable Labor”.

    I certainly did not vote Liberal, and still less did I vote for their shotguns, the Greens.

  37. briefly:

    [‘…for as long as the Greens persist in publishing myths about Labor, I will reply with the truth about the Greens.’]

    I get it, cobber. In fact, I got it after the first thousand or so of your anti-Greens’ posts. Please move on, as a number of others have either expressly or impliedly requested – the common enemy being dem no-good Tories.

  38. “Can you confirm then that attacking Labor much more frequently than the Libs is seen as the most effective way to get more votes.”

    No, and what does that have to do with anything?

  39. Jackol says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 2:01 pm

    the Greens being a political party that is trying to win

    Yes, they are. Like all the others, and like all the others they have contributed to us being in the woeful state we are in now and have to own their part in that, just as the Labor, Liberal, Nationals parties have to own their part as well, along with the media and, of course, us voters.

    I would note that it is interesting that your formulation isn’t:

    the Greens being a political party that is trying to achieve improved environmental outcomes

    You make an interesting distinction, at this point in time and into the near future the Greens cannot win Government, so are they “trying to achieve improved environmental outcomes?”

    I see little evidence of this, their approach seems to mainly consist of lectures in purity.

  40. Briefly

    “I have absolutely no problem with the Greens as competitors.”
    No, you have a massive problem with it and won’t shut up about it.

    It’s boring, tedious and pretty stupid.

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