Tidying up

Full preference counts should start unrolling over the next few days, but we’re probably still a fortnight away from being sure of the exact composition of the Senate.

So far as the outcome on seats is concerned, two questions from the federal election remain to be answered: who wins Macquarie, which could potentially deliver the Coalition a 78th seat, or – more likely – a 68th for Labor; and who gets the last Senate seat in Queensland. No new numbers have been added to the count in Macquarie since Wednesday, apparently because they’ve been gathering everything together for one last heave. Labor leads by 282; I make it that there are about 950 votes outstanding; the Liberals will need nearly two-third of them to close the gap. Their more realistic hope, if any, is that an error shows up during the preference distribution, but that’s highly unlikely after all the checking that’s been done already.

Out of the other lower house seats, I’ll be particularly interested to see the results of the preference distribution in Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter, where there is a chance the One Nation candidate might draw ahead of the Nationals candidate to make the final count. The Nationals have 23.5% of the primary vote to One Nation’s 21.6%, but by applying Senate preference flows from 2016 to allocate the minor parties, I get this narrowing to 27.1% to 26.3%. If nothing else, One Nation making it to second will provide us with hard data on how Coalition preferences divide between Labor and One Nation, a circumstance that has never arisen before at a federal election. The result in the seat of Mirani at the Queensland election in 2017 suggests it should be a bit short of 80%. If so, Fitzgibbon should emerge with a winning margin of about 2%, compared with his 3.0% lead in the Labor-versus-National count.

As discussed here last week, I feel pretty sure Labor’s second Senate candidate in Queensland will be pipped to the last seat by the Greens, though God knows I’ve been surprised before. That will mean three seats for the Coalition and one apiece for Labor, One Nation and the Greens. We probably won’t know the answer for about a fortnight, when the data entry should be completed and the button pressed.

There are other questions we’re still a while away from knowing the answer to, like the final national two-party preferred vote. All that can be said with certainty at this point is that it will be nowhere near what the polls were saying, but the most likely result is around 52-48 to the Coalition. The AEC’s current count says 51.6-48.4, but this doesn’t mean much because it excludes 15 seats in which the two-candidate counts are “non-classic”, i.e. not between the Coalition and Labor. Only when separate Coalition-versus-Labor counts are completed for those seats will we have a definitive result.

We will also have to wait until them for a definitive answer on exactly how many United Australia Party and One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition. This has been a contentious question for the past year, since pollsters recognised recent federal election results were unlikely to provide a reliable guide to how they would flow this time, as per their usual practice. As Kevin Bonham discusses at length, this was one of many questions on which certain pollsters exhibited an unbecoming lack of transparency. Nonetheless, their decision to load up the Coalition on preferences from these parties has been more than vindicated, notwithstanding my earlier skepticism that the split would be as much as the 60-40 used for both parties by Newspoll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

866 comments on “Tidying up”

  1. Anyone just see the interaction between tingle and the reporter on the scene of the Darwin shooting.
    If looks could kill.

  2. ajm:

    So it’s Michaelia Cash Mk II when it comes to using the AFP for political purposes? If that’s true then it’s absolutely shameful.

  3. Astro, just as the Libs are able to induce voters to vote against their own economic interest, the Greens are also able to induce voters to vote against their own hopes and values.

    The Liberals will hurt the economic interests of working people, and yet they can find ways to frighten or trick working people into voting for them. Likewise the Greens will undo the hopes of voters who want action on environmental issues, including in particular climate change. They do this by frightening people and by vilifying workers.

    The Liberals run division. It’s a strategy that’s proven. The Greens copy it. It’s working for both of these Tory brands.

  4. Middle aged white male. Wearing high vis shirt driving a ute. Pump action shotgun. Sounds more like a disgruntled “postal” style attack.

  5. I find it curious that some here who say they are Labor supporters say we must remain loyal to coal miners. yet the last election result makes clear that coal miners did not remain loyal to Labor, but progressive urban voters did (the aged demographic and death scare campaign cost Labor in cities). And that was without Labor even having the guts to come out and stake a position on coal mining. So who is being loyal to whom, and who deserves loyalty? I have no sympathy for an overpaid minority who want to dictate to the majority, whether they are bankers, lawyers or coal miners.

    Tops post Soc.

  6. Socrates…..the miners have split from Labor. True. They and many others in Queensland, who now believe Labor is not capable of serving the economic interests of that region. They bought the Green potion and Blue tonic. The ‘majority’ you speak of, in the other States, is not a majority at all. Labor is a minority, taken nationally. They are incapable of serving the interests and aspirations of their supporters precisely because the voters of Queensland have abandoned Labor.

    The reality is that unless and until the economic interests of working people in Queensland are respected and valued equally with the interests of their counterparts in other States, then no action on climate change will be possible. This is the lesson of 2019. It is a refresher on all the elections since 2010, elections that Labor lost.

    The damage done to Labor in QLD is so serious that it’s likely no action will ever be taken in Australia in response to climate change. The Liberals benefit from a Denialist pose. The Greens benefit by intransigence of their own design. We’ve run aground.

  7. Chris Minns v Jodi Mackay? Thoughts?

    It would seem if Chris Minns wins the position of Kailia Murnain is untenable?

  8. The Liberals should be made to account for the gratuitous cruelties they perpetrate for public exhibition in Nauru and Manus. They employ cruelty for its own sake. They revel in it. I hope that KK is up to it.

    The Greens should be made to account for their part in the ‘politics of concentration of asylum seekers’. Were it not for the Greens, in collusion with Abbott, these hell holes would not exist.

  9. get some new material briefly. In my own campaign against Shorten I was constantly jumping topics and finding new material. I had snot videos, I had some Napoleon stuff, I tried to keep it a bit fresh and interesting. You are just boring.

  10. briefly says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 9:15 pm
    Life gets a lot simpler when the Greens are clearly identified as Tories in khaki.
    ______________________________________________
    You remind me of the fatty who gets killed early in Lord of the Flies.

  11. So the commentariat, or at least the B Grade team like Peter Brent, have decided that Kristina Kenneally is going to be their new whipping boy?

    They seem to have conveniently forgotten that her opposite number, Peter Dutton, was an abject failure in his first federal politcal job. As a Minister of Health!

    You’d think these armchair generals like Peter Brent would at least allow KK a little time to find her feet!

  12. Hey, nath, how’s those 3-4 Lower House Greens seats going?

    Maybe after an election in the second half of this century. Or maybe not. 😀

  13. THe Greens performed very badly in Wills and Cooper. It was a bit of a shock. I’m trying to support Albo this term and see how he goes. He is infinitely better than Shorten, although there is still the SDA and AWU operatives lurking about. I will continue to attack those operatives.

  14. Lar von Trier:

    You remind me of the fatty who gets killed early in Lord of the Flies.

    The infliction of Lord of the Flies upon a generation of schoolchildren is a grievous obloquy. The modern analogue I suppose is to force school-kids to watch any of the von Trier oeuvre

  15. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 9:19 pm
    So the commentariat, or at least the B Grade team like Peter Brent, have decided that Kristina Kenneally is going to be their new whipping boy?

    They seem to have conveniently forgotten that her opposite number, Peter Dutton, was an abject failure in his first federal politcal job. As a Minister of Health!

    You’d think these armchair generals like Peter Brent would at least allow KK a little time to find her feet!
    _____________________________________________________________
    So Menzies House has decided to prop up KK! Interesting!

  16. nath says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 9:25 pm
    THe Greens performed very badly in Wills and Cooper. It was a bit of a shock. I’m trying to support Albo this term and see how he goes. He is infinitely better than Shorten, although there is still the SDA and AWU operatives lurking about. I will continue to attack those operatives.
    _____________________
    Word on the street a challenge looming for Victorian AWU Secretary Ben Davis!

  17. E. G. Theodore says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 9:25 pm
    Lar von Trier:

    You remind me of the fatty who gets killed early in Lord of the Flies.
    The infliction of Lord of the Flies upon a generation of schoolchildren is a grievous obloquy. The modern analogue I suppose is to force school-kids to watch any of the von Trier oeuvre
    ______________________
    Sadly school kids don’t appreciate the dialogue , just the flesh! Do you like to watch?

  18. Labor measures it actions for the environment with things done; like marine parks and emission trading schemes. The Liberals measure their success on Labor actions undone; the Greens measure their success on how difficult they can make it for Labor to get things done.

    Voting Green for the environment shows a very high degree of disconnect from reality..

    Faced with opposition from Liberals and the Greens it looks like labor is going t give up it’s decade battle to have a market based scheme to price carbon. The Liberal/Greens campaign has been a success.

  19. E. G. Theodore says:
    Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 9:19 pm
    Briefly

    How does your theory explain the recent QLD state election results?

    Ted, it’s valuable to compare and contrast. The State Labor campaign was not fouled by intruders from Victoria, purporting to know what was best for QLD and arriving to declare QLD would be liquidated. Notably, there are no upper house seats in the QLD Parliament, no sinecures for Green Grandees to defend.

    Even so, the anti-hero protest vote for the National Socialists was evident in some places. It’s quite obvious that many years of economic stagnation have ripened the ears of some Queensland workers, who have voted their revenge in both directions ever since they elected Campbell Newman.

  20. E. G. Theodore @ #816 Tuesday, June 4th, 2019 – 9:25 pm

    Lar von Trier:

    You remind me of the fatty who gets killed early in Lord of the Flies.

    The infliction of Lord of the Flies upon a generation of schoolchildren is a grievous obloquy. The modern analogue I suppose is to force school-kids to watch any of the von Trier oeuvre

    😆 😆 😆

  21. You remind me of the fatty who gets killed early in Lord of the Flies.

    I thought he didn’t die until something like two-thirds of the way through?

  22. Lars Von Trier @ 9:18 pm

    You remind me of the fatty who gets killed early in Lord of the Flies.

    The “fatty” (Piggy) is in fact killed right at the end of Lord of the Flies, by the gang formed by the fascist Jack and his cronies. The main character, Ralph, mourns him as a true, wise friend.

  23. These posts are not about me. Nor are they fiction. They are a critique of politics-at-the-time. They’re not history. They are about reactionary politics in its various guises during a phase of deep disquiet about the present and the future.

    They are also about the human condition. This is mostly about our tendency to injure those values we most cherish while in the very act of trying to serve them. We are prisoners of our desires and our ignorance.

  24. Anyone just see the interaction between tingle and the reporter on the scene of the Darwin shooting.
    If looks could kill.

    As much as I feel I should be used to it by now, the stupidity of the bullshit people talk about journalists on this and other forums like it remains a constant source of astonishment to me.

  25. Darwin sounds like an organized crime incident.

    Father Of The Nation, ScoMo, may have jumped the gun in expressing All Australia’s solidarity with the victims.

    Why do they do this? The nation is NOT in shock. Darwin is NOT reeling. The shooter was arrested while trying to give himself up. It’s not terrorism-related. What’s the need for the PM to stick his bib into a local matter?

  26. What’s the need for the PM to stick his bib into a local matter?

    He’d have been tarred and feathered if he didn’t offer comment.

  27. Socrates,

    I find it curious that some here who say they are Labor supporters say we must remain loyal to coal miners. yet the last election result makes clear that coal miners did not remain loyal to Labor, but progressive urban voters did (the aged demographic and death scare campaign cost Labor in cities). And that was without Labor even having the guts to come out and stake a position on coal mining. So who is being loyal to whom, and who deserves loyalty? I have no sympathy for an overpaid minority who want to dictate to the majority, whether they are bankers, lawyers or coal miners.

    I think there is some nuance that is missing from the argument. The coking coal which is mined in the Hunter Valley (I got this from Oakeshott Country) will be needed for steel production in the future. Labor needs to differentiate between this and coal for power stations.

    They also need to make sure that Labor are not seeming to oppose all mining.

    Of course, in an election campaign nuance goes out the door. In the last election campaign I doubt that most Australians differentiated between mining in general and coal mining. I do not see any obvious ways for Labor together out and sell these rather nuanced ideas, especially in our current hostile media environment.

    Mike Cannon-Brooks from Atlassian has what I think is a reasonable take on the issues (although I would not have used the phrase “Mining is Great”myself. It is essential, but does need to be done with due consideration for the environment.

    “People say mining is a problem, mining isn’t a problem for Australia. Mining is great,” he said mentioning rare earths, iron ore, lithium, nickel and silver as positives. “[But] somewhere between 15 and 25 years [from now], all the coal is going to be done, it’s going to be worth zero,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/mining-is-great-but-minerals-council-is-nuts-atlassian-s-mike-cannon-brookes-20190604-p51ua0.html

  28. Jenna Price rightly slams the campaign by Cherish Life Queensland, which is certainly some of the crueler and nastier misinformation I have ever seen in an election campaign – although the LGBTQI community can no doubt give more egregious examples.

    Any pregnant woman knows this, feels this: the fear of what can go wrong; that making babies and delivering babies is some kind of magic. We know, in our minds, how it works, but silently, the fears are still with us. Will my baby be ok?

    I woke up with that question in my mind every morning over three long pregnancies. Back then, we didn’t have the tests which would have put my mind at rest and now we do. In the intervening years, I have known three women who had late term abortions. All these babies were wanted so much, so wanted that the desire of these women for their darling babies was like standing next to a camp fires, radiant. On each and every occasion, those late term abortions were on the doctor’s advice. The choice: a late term abortion or continuation of a pregnancy that would inevitably end in the birth of a dead baby and put the mother’s life at risk. Two of these women had babies who did not have brains of any functional kind.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/miserable-purposeful-lies-should-not-be-part-of-our-politics-20190603-p51tzd.html

  29. Regarding anencephaly, I know two people close to me who have terminations because of this, and so it must be one of the more common things. But the effect on the prospective parents is devastating.

    Thank goodness now these things can be picked up much earlier.

    One of the reasons I was interested in whether the Cherish Life Qld campaign affected Macquarie is because there is a group of people in the seat of Macquarie who advocate carrying these babies to term, and the advertising was pretty nasty, and devastating for a friend who has recently had this problem. The guild these women feel is terrible, and having this stuff shoved in your face is very difficult.

    I certainly got a lot of ads on Web browsers etc. I wonder if women were especially targeted.

    The election result also means that for women in this situation in places like Tasmania, they will have the difficulty and expense of travelling interstate.

  30. @ cat re Brent on Keneally…

    You gotta admit he has a point about the so called blowtorch merely playing into the libs hands. Like he says, Dutton works best for labor when he’s left to score own goals all by himself. Keneally probably should be utilised on more important bread and butter blow torches.

  31. Citizen- Samoans largely Mormon, Tonga mostly attend Tongan methodist although a fair number do go to the big mega churches, Fiji much the same as Tongans although more go the uniting church than Tongans, Cook Islanders etc can’t comment don’t know enough of them.

    Why I am interested is I am not so rude as to ask people who they vote for or what part their religious beliefs (or lack of) play in their decision, but I would imagine pacific islanders usually split strongly Labor but I also know that most of them are evangelicals so it would be interesting to know if the Coalition having an evangelical as their leader (a pretty liberal one, he drinks beer, most evangelicals regard alcohol as Satan’s syrup) got the coalition much of this vote.

    I am slowly grinding through all 151 seats and I am noting not insignificant swings against Labor in the same greater western Sydney seats that voted against gay marriage in the plebicite, that is why the PI vote has suddenly interested me.I am trying to keep an open mind and look at the election result from a number of angles.

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