I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday giving my immediate post-result impressions, which offered observations such as the following:
Unexpected as all this was, the underlying dynamic is not new, and should be especially familiar to those whose memories extend to Mark Latham’s defeat at the hands of John Howard in 2004. Then as now, the northern Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon flipped from Labor to Liberal, with forestry policy providing the catalyst on that occasion, and Labor performed poorly in the outer suburbs, reflected in yesterday’s defeat in Lindsay and its failure to win crucial seats on the fringes of the four largest cities. There were also swings to Labor against the trend in wealthy city seats, attributed in 2004 to the non-economic issues of the Iraq war and asylum seekers, and touted at the time as the “doctors’ wives” effect.
So far as this blog is concerned though, other engagements have prevented me giving the post-election aftermath the full attention it deserves. I will endeavour to rectify that later today, so stay tuned. In the meantime, here is a thread for discussion of the situation. Note also the post below this one, dedicated to updates and discussion on progress in the late count.
Somebody once said “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” I suspect though that it’s more likely to have been said by some rich bugger protecting his franking credits on tax not paid than by a polar bear or glacier.
This confirms my predictions about a Morrison government being an essentially a Hard Right one. Add in rolling out the Cashless Debit Card into remote Aboriginal communities.
What’s next for Morrison?
* Caretaker period is now officially over.
* Swearing in of cabinet and wider ministry.
* Parliament, possibly opening in late June.
* Passing the federal budget handed down on April 2.
* Passing the income tax cut package.
* Banning animal activists going onto farms.
* Temporary exclusion orders to ensure returning foreign fighters are put on a watch list and subject to probation-like controls.
* Axing “medevac” legislation and mothballing Christmas Island.
* Underwriting of baseload power stations, based on shortlist of 12.
* Murray-Darling water plan review.
* First dams to be rolled out under regional water fund.
* Domestic violence national action plan.
* Expanding youth mental health and suicide prevention support.
* Guaranteeing part of house deposits for first home buyers.
Its odd, but barely a week to winter and we are still getting temps into the 20’s
On climate change the ALP should have quoted AGL when they made it clear that the goernment’s policies were increasing power prices, and they didn’t mention climate change in its ads until the last week.
Tristo:
I can probably work out what “scosocialist” means, but I reckon any party that adopts that term will be consigning itself to irrelevance.
I understand that Greens members are starting to realise what their leadership (and “elder statesman”) have done.
ItzaDream @ #1039 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 6:43 pm
I’ve just been reading facebook and apparently the CFMEU campaign in Queensland against Labor was devastatingly effective. You can’t counter that with fine words and careful explanation.
Jeez the coal lobby didn’t even wait a day before getting on the front foot agitating for new govt-funded coal-fired power stations to be built.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/20/coal-industry-urges-re-elected-morrison-government-to-build-new-coal-plants
Turnbull and Morrison were elected PM after deposing the popularly elected leader.
Disunity is no longer death.
If a leader is not performing, rules that prevent removing them could be counter productive.
Should Labor change their rules?
Some Shortenites are still in denial:
Amplify Magazine
@WokeAFMedia
May 19
Next person who tells me they ‘couldn’t’ vote ALP because they ‘don’t like Bill Shorten’ is going to cop a brick in the teeth.
We vote for parties. Not candidates.
Paul Watson (sea shepherd founder/captain)
And his contribution to a solution right now, is what exactly?
People at work today had mixed views about the election. Majority were happy the coalition had been returned, clearly over their anger at Turnbull and JBishop being knifed. Whereas others were very disappointed that action on climate change has been further delayed.
Tristo @ #1025 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 6:11 pm
In Europe that might work. Not in Australia. We are too lazy, too complacent, and too downright stupid 🙁
Ben Eltham
@beneltham
May 18
A Queensland ALP source tells me ‘people just don’t like Bill Shorten … it’s as simple and as complicated as that’
Ah yes, I remember that line being sneered quite a few times when people expressed displeasure at the removal of Kevin Rudd as well.
Shane Mead
@Shaneoo88
May 18
It’s almost like people don’t like Bill Shorten. Who would have thought that…hmmm.
_________________________________________________
M4TCH
@M4TCH_69
Me: “Hey dad who are you voting for tomorrow?”
Dad: “Yeah probably LNP, I just don’t like Bill Shorten.”
__________________________________________
Jan Milne
@janmlne
May 19
Yes I heard that too from friends, tried to tell them not true. Their answer: we don’t like Bill Shorten!
You can bet your bottom dollar that Labor disunity will still equal death. Different standard for the two parties.
I like these lines from Peter Hartcher:
‘Tristo says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 5:18 pm
@Salk
Jeremy Corbyn is not an anti-Semite, Jeremy Corbyn has for his whole career has been a very consistent anti-racist and anti-imperialist. Yes he is naive in being buddies with the PLO, Hamas and Hezbollah. But is he is an Anti-Semite?, the answer is no.’
FMD
Heshbollah and Hamas are both funded, armed, and heavily influenced by/directed by Iran which, IMO, would not hesitate to drive the Jews into the Mediterranean were this ever to prove possible.
In this context anti-semitism might be the lesser point over which to split hairs. We are looking at folk who have genocide in mind. Corbyn is insane hanging around the fringes of these groups.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideology_of_Hezbollah#Jews_and_Judaism
Smokey that was Churchill
“Bill Shorten wants to raise our taxes. We already pay enough!” is pretty much what I’ve heard from voters who voted for the Coalition (but aren’t rusted-on.)
So it seems it’s Albo and Chalmers for deputy. Could be good for the qld vote if nothing else.
I was hoping for a female presence on the leadership team but since the electorate at large doesn’t seem to give a shit about that then I’m ok with it.
I would say that Shorten’s problem was that people just didn’t care about him to really hate him, but whatever.
It doesn’t matter anymore.
Long live King Albo.
‘C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 7:16 pm
I like these lines from Peter Hartcher:’
I can’t recall Hartcher calling out any of the Big Lies. Not once. He was silent on being in the black. He was silent on climate change. He was silent on the number of people actually affected by franking credits. He was silent on the death tax. He was silent on the car tax. He was silent on the retiree tax. He was silent on Palmer’s trillion dollar tax. He was silent on Labor helping China invade Australia. He was silent on Vote Labor is you want a muslim living next door to you.
And now Hartcher gets stuck into Shorten.
Do us all a favour, Cat, and don’t quote or link to Hartcher.
He’s not worth a pinch of the proverbial.
Events, dear boy, events! John Hewson thinks that Scott Morrison, policy vacuum, won’t be able to get away with drifting along in government only doing the things he wants to:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/morrison-s-rare-opportunity-to-shape-the-country-20190519-p51p0t.html
“We’ve decided that giving the membership a say in leadership was a bad idea and have decided to go back to it entirely being done behind closed doors” is a message that would go over very well.
And the leadership nonsense would have been punished if Shorten and Labor didn’t decide to put a huge target on themselves and make it an election about him.
shiftaling @ #1066 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:16 pm
Like the deficit was no longer a problem when the LNP doubled it.
If it’s Albanese and Chalmers, hopefully they at least keep Wong as Senate leader (although from the same faction as Leader – do they allow this?)
I know under Rudd they had Evans (left) and then switched to Conroy (right) when it changed to Gillard and then to Wong (left) when it went back to Rudd.
Alan Kohler made a good point regarding today’s bounce on the ASX, he thinks it had more to do with negative gearing because a number of the dividend stocks actually fell today.
Henry:
Where are you hearing that? Last I read Bowen could throw his hat in the ring, and Joel Fitzgibbon is also making noises.
The leadership candidates are so far pretty ordinary. And to think that a month ago we were playing ‘who would be the Liberals’ leader in opposition’!
Boerwar @ #1073 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:21 pm
Well said.
I find this palpable excitement Nath gets from negative Twitter crap amusing.
Just as much on Morrison, Albo & against my hero Penny Wong.
Boerwar @ #1073 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:21 pm
Read the next bit that I quoted. Not entirely favourable to Morrison. 2 bob each way? Maybe. Still, it’s there. And I do think that we here need to get our heads around the fact that the mainstream media are never going to be courageous reporters, as they, like everyone else caught in the Neoliberal’s intended vice-like grip, are fearful of losing their jobs and everything else that goes with it. So, to put anything remotely critical alongside that which is critical of Labor, is a plus in my book. You take what you can get.
‘Millennial says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 7:21 pm
I would say that Shorten’s problem was that people just didn’t care about him to really hate him, but whatever.’
The Coalitoin spent $55 million of tax money on a RC specifically to get Shorten. Murdoch spent $25 million a year for six years (yes, $150 million) to get him. Palmer spent $60 million vilifying him.
Think of that. A quarter of a billion dollars to kill off Shorten. And lo! He was unpopular!
Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison, Hanson, Katter, Palmer and Dirty Dick Di Natale, working ally to the rabid right, ALL spent six years vilifying Shorten. And lo! He was unpopular!
Albanese had better get ready for the same treatment.
Whatever, eh?
You do realize what just happened to democracy in Australia, don’t you? Or do you just do ‘meh, whatever.’
Sorry no more twitter excerpts.
Boerwar @ #1082 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:27 pm
I mean whatever, as in, whatever, the election has already been done and dusted. Nothing we do, say or blame will change the outcome. Might as well move on and hope for better days.
Anthony Albanese better get ready for what’s about to happen to him as well. Along the lines of…well, boy weren’t WE wrong about ‘Albo’! Here’s what Anna Caldwell has found out that we didn’t know before. We must apologise to our readers for supporting him in the past.
Too easy.
Hartcher would have been the dag on Shorten’s rump had Labor won the election.
I think just blaming a dislike of Shorten too simple and easy. As early as 2013 folks elected Abbott and he was disliked greatly. Labor tried to win an election with a extensive and aggressive policy platform when they had, or appeared to have, a modest lead. In the wash up and for a variety of reasons enough people rejected that.
@Boerwar
I don’t believe Albanese is going to get the same sort of treatment as Shorten did. Albanese just is not going to be much of a threat to their interests as Shorten was.
Yes indeed, and the Murdoch propaganda in particular was largely about reinforcing how unpopular Shorten was.
I like Shorten. Sure, he was too wooden in his scripted delivery and would often slip into sermonising. Of all the best speeches delivered in Parliament over the last six years, Shorten delivered most of them, with some nods to Tony Burke and Penny Wong.
On PPM and leadership ratings Shorten was catching Morrison.
Do people think Albo won’t be personally attacked to the same extent and effect as Shorten. The difference may be whether Albo breaks bread with the Murdochs.
Tristo
says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 7:31 pm
@Boerwar
I don’t believe Albanese is going to get the same sort of treatment as Shorten did. Albanese just is not going to be much of a threat to their interests as Shorten was.
_____________________________________
People may have disliked Abbott but he was not considered ‘untrustworthy’. It’s the most important category in leader attributes. Not being liked is one thing, not being liked and not trusted is another thing completely.
Hmm not liking the sound of that. If a Labor govt under PM Albanese isn’t going to confront the vested interests and govern in the interests of the country and taxpayers, then what’s the point of a Labor govt? May as well just stick with the Libs.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1078 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:25 pm
Basically todays ASX action was dominated by the 7% to 10% increase in the major 4 Banks.
Other measures on the broader All Ords were ho hum and while positive, in line with the current trend. ASX no big increase in stocks making New 52 Week Highs, no big increase in Advance/ Declines, number of stock trades and volume steady to flat.
Yet turnover up about 20% – coming from the higher priced Big Bank stocks.
Lets see if those same stocks will be chased ever higher ?
It might be punters now think the RC is well behind them as well.
Fitzgibbon has no chance fess and I have no idea what he was crapping on about today. He’s defending his own diminished seat.
Albo will be unopposed as leader and probably Jimmy as deputy.
And so it goes.
Davidwh
The voice of reason!
@Nath
A few weeks or months ago I would agree with you completely. However the News Corporation media liked Tony Abbott, they never liked Bill Shorten. I have become ‘wide awake’ to the tactics the media (especially News Corporation) do when it comes to shaping people’s opinions.
@Une Persson
Albo I predict will break bread with the Murdochs.
Its odd, but barely a week to winter and we are still getting temps into the 20’s
Well, Climate Change lost the election. The tradies, retirees, negative gearers, miners, banks and pensioners who won’t need either dental care or cancer tomography for the next 3 years have decided that.
Funny, but I thought Mother Nature didn’t give a flying fuck about what South East Queensland believed vis-a-vis species extinction, unseasonal cyclones, droughts, mass cattle kills or Barrier Reef bleaching… but I must have been mistaken.
Off to the beach tomorrow!
How GOOD is that?
Albo will be a harder nut to crack than Shorten. He is very good at handling the media.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/albo-can-get-stuffed-why-bill-shorten-is-backing-tanya-plibersek-to-replace-him-as-leader-over-anthony-albanese-%E2%80%93-amid-fears-she-could-become-the-next-julie-bishop-and-be-overlooked-for-a-man/ar-AABAanH