I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday giving my immediate post-result impressions, which offered observations such as the following:
Unexpected as all this was, the underlying dynamic is not new, and should be especially familiar to those whose memories extend to Mark Latham’s defeat at the hands of John Howard in 2004. Then as now, the northern Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon flipped from Labor to Liberal, with forestry policy providing the catalyst on that occasion, and Labor performed poorly in the outer suburbs, reflected in yesterday’s defeat in Lindsay and its failure to win crucial seats on the fringes of the four largest cities. There were also swings to Labor against the trend in wealthy city seats, attributed in 2004 to the non-economic issues of the Iraq war and asylum seekers, and touted at the time as the “doctors’ wives” effect.
So far as this blog is concerned though, other engagements have prevented me giving the post-election aftermath the full attention it deserves. I will endeavour to rectify that later today, so stay tuned. In the meantime, here is a thread for discussion of the situation. Note also the post below this one, dedicated to updates and discussion on progress in the late count.
For the life of me, I don’t understand why ALP policies in non-economic areas – such as health, education, foreign affairs, indigenous affairs and particularly the environment – should not have been prosecuted by the relevant shadow ministers.
A series of TV ads featuring Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong, Mark Butler, Pat Dodson etc spruiking their respective policy areas would have highlighted the depth of talent in the ALP team, as well as contrasting the ScoMo “one man band” for the shallow, pathetic ad-man routine it was.
Opportunity missed, especially as it would have, at least in part, ameliorated the “don’t like Bill” problem. Going head to head with a motormouth when communication isn’t your strength was not one of Bill’s better ideas …
Dave
When it comes to the banks, it was probably a relief rally instead of some new upward trend but time will tell because the banks will still be under pressure from a softer housing market and will probably still be cutting their dividends
@Rational Leftist
Changing the way you choose a a leader doesn’t need to be behind closed doors or exclude the paid up members. A good change might simply be to allow a challenge 9 months out from an election.
Better still, choose a leader via a reality TV series – Labor’s primary could double (as long as its good reality TV)
@Chinda63
Insights such as yours is why I argue Labor lost the election on bad tactics and strategy, not because of the policies which were excellent. Also they did not prepare themselves for the scare campaigns which would happen.
Actually now that Jones doesn’t have to retire I would love to see Albo and Jones go head to head.
Albanese goes onto Jones program and argues his points and Jones lets him. Albo is going to actually get people to listen to him that ‘might’ vote ALP.
I am convinced that this election was our Trump or Brexit moment, in that few saw this result coming. Also there might have been interference as well, in the case of Australia’s recent election the role of Clive Palmer. I think despite not winning any seats, the $60 million he spent paid off. Namely federal subsides when it comes to the Galilee Basin mines and his proposed new coal fired power station.
https://www.ted.com/talks/carole_cadwalladr_facebook_s_role_in_brexit_and_the_threat_to_democracy
Albo doing a live job interview on 7 30.
Sorry one more twitter excerpt:
Alan Jones
30 August 2017 ·
Full marks to Anthony Albanese for his stance on the Captain Cook and Arthur Phillip statues.
The same can’t be said for Labor leader Bill Shorten.
Did Labor make the wrong call selecting Shorten over Albanese in 2013?
Mexicanbeemer @ #1102 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 7:42 pm
Peeps piling on to tax refunds from Bank Franking Credits where they haven’t paid tax ?
But the ‘additional’ turnover was another $1.4 Trillion over Friday – and we know it went mainly into the big 4 banks – so Institutional/ Super Fund buying most of it, some wealth retirees no doubt as well, but Big money, deep pockets – so Institutions.
IMO.
I suddenly feel an inexplicable urge to repeat my plea to lurkers:
@nath
For a long time, I never liked Bill Shorten, however I saw a video of him having a few too many drinks. My eyes were opened, because to me he was a decent minded man (I am the same, so I know), who really believed in making Australia a better place. Wonder why many on here were Shorten fans, they glimpsed the real Bill Shorten.
Albo a bit nervous, but not too bad.
Peter Dutton sure wasn’t nervous afterwards. Same laser-like focus on peddling the Coalition line. 😐
why watch game of thrones when blackadder series 1 is on instead ?
Good news on Bass. Fingers crossed.
So Labor could not make any decision prior or during the election campaign without testing it with a poll – which sadly all turned out to be wrong.
What is the logical first step to rebuild? Why of course take a poll. Labor is out in the field today with a front organisation called : “Q & A Research”.
This is magnificent!
The character assassination of Shorten was personal & started in 2008.
Has anyone asked themselves why?
I remember someone telling recently he was a liar.
I asked what had he lied about?
They didn’t know what he had lied about or in fact if he had.. just that he was a liar.
btw The sanctimonious on here go on about Shorten’s role in RGR, never a peep about Turnbull v Abbott or Morrison v Turnbull.
Going forward…..
If only Albanese (sorry I won’t be calling him Albo – sounds like some sort of cleaning fluid) and Chalmers nominate and are unopposed, is that it? Does there have to be a formal vote of the membership as well?
The way to limit the fallout from zero taxation was to limit the amount the tax department would throw your way to the yearly pension.
It would resulted in the capital being handed to your kids but it would have stopped the rot that went on to protect those that get a lot more.
Better log off before I bite back at William for his ABC comments – don’t think he’ll give a refund if I’m banned ……..
The Dems in the US are concerned with Labor’s loss as well, since Climate Change was prominent, and they are playing with variations of a Green New Deal. The problem they have is that the vocal hard left of the party are getting all the air time and are pressuring all else to step in line. But the original incantation of the GND was totally insane, with AOC trying to deny certain things were ever in it, despite them being there in black and white.’
Warning to Labor. The Dems are self destructing with a war between the extreme left, hard left and anybody close to Center is the enemy. They have lost all perspective and are playing to a tiny but vocal minority voter base for these issues. I would not be surprised if the Dems get absolutely slaughtered in 2020.
Labor needs to think about who the voters are and what they will and will not accept.
When it all settles down, it will be interesting to see how the LNP majority will survive in the next 2-3 years. Both Gillard and the last LNP government did not lose too many members to ill heath/death/moving on/scandal and were able to get through. This administration may not be so lucky…………3 years is an eternity in politics…………………
Mexicanbeemer @ #1102 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 5:42 pm
Indeed. And along with decreased dividends, there’ll be a decrease in franking credits, and therefore a decrease in the largesse that the tax office showers on “self-refunded” retirees. Which means, quelle horreur, they’ll have to eat into their capital to maintain their lifestyles.
To rub salt into their wounds, they’ll probably have to sell their shares at a substantial loss (depending on when they bought them of course).
That in turn will lead to a lower dividend and franking credit next reporting season. Which will lead to them having to sell more, and the cycle continues to the point where they may have to sell their yacht(s).
ROFLMAO! Fuck ’em.
Looking a little further the number, $ value and open interest $ value of Put Options ( ie basically a ‘bet’ on the market going up) have gone up over the last 4 trading days as have the advance/ declines of the Put Options.
The ‘market’ was confident for ‘whatever reason’.
@D
When the press starts character assassinations of people, it is because these people are seen as a threat to their interests.
The End of Abbott is coming up on 4Corners. Should be interesting.
Morrison’s part goofball, part bogan, part happy clapper, part loving family man, part snake oil sales man (which he’s particularly good at) and importantly he’s part right wing. He’s got broad appeal. He seeks to make every battle between him and his opponent and he’s good in a political scrap. How long he can maintain all these internal contradictions? I don’t know, but Labor will underestimate him at their peril.
Labor need to put a woman up against him. If that’s not Penny Wong who could it be?
LoL
“The character assassination of Shorten was personal & started in 2008.”
Really. Shorten and his man didn’t assassinate Rudd in every way possible in the run up to his backstabbing.
Shorten is the LAST person in Labor who should talk about betrayal, character assassination etc…
Lars Von Trier @ #1117 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 8:05 pm
Q and A Research isn’t a ‘front organisation’ you lackwit. They also are the organisation that the Liberal Party choose to use for their research into people’s attitudes.
Scott Morrison will have to start taking big decisions soon enough. Let’s see how good he is at that.
I am surprised anyone thinks that our elections here get any real time at all in the US – or elsewhere for that matter. Those who have travelled outside Oz (lots and lots of people), know full well that once you are on the plane, and 10 minutes into the flight, Oz and what goes on here, ceases to exist. Get real………for example, there are 34 million people within the Greater Shanghai metropolitan area alone and they neither know nor care about Oz. And for good luck, the local commercial TV stations provide we in the West with news originating out of Melbourne or Sydney. For the most part, we don’t give a stuff about this either. I am sure the feeling is mutual the other way………………
‘Davidwh says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 7:39 pm
Albo will be a harder nut to crack than Shorten. He is very good at handling the media.’
The Australian will continue to attack Albo and Shorten by around 700% more than it does the Coalition. Sky After Dark and the Shock Jocks arn’t ‘handled’ by anyone. They just make shit up.
When the next election comes people with tens of millions of dollars will make up some more big lies.
The ABC is being gutted and/or controlled by right wingers.
During the next campaign Dirty Dick Di Natale will announce that the Greens will hold Labor to account, will ride Albo, demanding this, demanding that, and will no doubt lead a convoy to somewhere to wedge Labor.
The hardness of the nuts does not matter. What matters is that our democracy is bought and paid for. What matters is that the Greens are helping the rabid right by targetting Labor. What matters is that the Big End of Town owns the place. What matters is that Australia is becoming steadily more corrupt.
What does not seem to have changed is the ability of billionaires to persuade the poor, sick, workless that THEY care. They really do.
dave,
A put option is a bet on the market (or a particular company’s shares) going down.
A call option is a bet on the upside.
Lars von Trier needs to trier harder.
Have the Greens had their usual post election leadership spill?
At the end Morrison could barely keep ahead of Shorten on PPM. The gap was closing and closing. And that is with the help of a quarter of a billion spent on destroying Shorten.
Imagine if a quarter of a billion had been spent on destroying Morrison?
Imagine if Dirty Dick Di Natale had spent ALL HIS time riding Morrison instead of Shorten?
Imagine if the MSM had called out ALL of Morrison’s lies EVERY single time?
Too easy.
Still, the drought is still mostly still going. The early spring Autumn break was fair to middling but it has come to a halt.
The Reef is going to get a hammering three or four times a decade and the next hammering is due. China v US is not doing us any favours.
Wages are going to continue to stay flat in real terms for most workers.
Maybe they are going to have to spend a quarter of a billion propping up Morrison?
Tricot @ #1132 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 8:15 pm
Yeah, that. Americans are an insular bunch. Most know Australia only as a vague caricature of itself. They sure as fuck don’t pay attention to Australian politics.
And even if they did, most of them would think that ‘Liberals’ == ‘Democrats’ and that the left was just returned to power for the third time. 🙂
@Confessions
Have the Greens had their usual post election leadership spill?
I don’t know but after the ‘climate change election’ the Greens need to have a long hard look at the result.
Of course The Greens will ride Albanese. He’s from the Left of Labor. So twice as much.
In the next three years Labor has got to go the L/NP method of campaigning, small target,don’t release any policies, blather shite, point the finger at the current government then when they actually win roll out the big idea’s. Howard gave them the chance for this with his ‘core and non-core’ promises. Fight fire with fire, if they get dirty get dirtier, got some sort of rumour about a L/NP member put it on farcebook and let it run. Come up with non existent policies supposedly being planned by the government and spread it far and wide. As I said, fight fire with fire. Regarding the current abomination I wonder how long before it unravels and spud head decides it’s his time for a go? When it comes to the soon to be leader of the PLP, I honestly don’t have a choice and none of them are a stand out for me. Another three years of chaos. Hooray whoopee fek. Time for another Bundy.
Salk
Missed it by this…………..
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????much!
Dan Gulberry @ #1134 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 8:16 pm
Duh – you’re correct of course. My bad.
Apart from that – what I said goes.
Sob 🙁
Morrison won’t be challenged during this term. He pulled off the miracle win and now with serious doubt over the credibility of opinion polls why would they bother? I can’t personally see his popularity staying high over the long term, but question marks hang over whether he’ll still be preferred over whoever Labor puts forward.
“He’s a capable guy,” John Button once remarked on ABC Radio. “In fact, he’s mentioned that to me himself several times.” His will to power makes sense of his career. As a former Gillard minister told me: “He wants to be PM because he wants to be PM. Everything is about him becoming PM.”
From David Marr: “Faction Man” Essay
Prescient words.
@Tricot
“When it all settles down, it will be interesting to see how the LNP majority will survive in the next 2-3 years. Both Gillard and the last LNP government did not lose too many members to ill heath/death/moving on/scandal and were able to get through. This administration may not be so lucky…………3 years is an eternity in politics…………………”
I think Labor will be ill advised to push s44. Push scandal hard but not unreasonably. Its easy to think all the scandals are on the other side. I wish good health and long life to all Parliament. I also think all now need to respect the decision of the Australian people. I think labor need to regroup, reset and own the loss and learn.
Plenty of disingenuous raving about Shorten. Shorten is no longer the opposition leader as he generously stood down for the good of the Labor party after narrowly losing the two party preferred vote for seats in the HORs.
If Morrison is so brave he can call a double dissolution ASAP and see if he gets the same results.
Some pathetic little posers will attempt to dine out on a political aberration.
Lars Von Trier @ #1145 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 8:33 pm
Is that a quote about Albo?
Labor wasn’t merely confident they would win. They felt they were a shoe-in, a mere formality. They had won the election months out and were already planning their office renovations, their celebration parties, the photo ops, the victory laps, the speeches…..their place in history!
This party, this leader, was Gough, and Bob, and Kevin and Julia, and the true believers.
And in this over-confidence, they became so cock-sure of themselves that they were announcing taxes galore, anyone who made ‘too-much’ would be hit. They identified what they thought were easy targets and announced, we’re coming after you. People surely thought, “if that’s what they’re admitting to now, imagine what’s hidden away.”
The left is busily flailing around trying to find someone, or something to blame. It was negativity, it was Murdoch, it was coal, it was Facebook.
What it was, was an unpopular leader, a born to lead mindset, and a lack of understanding the electorate because it is now a party of the comfortable, well-fed, inner city left elite.
“At the end Morrison could barely keep ahead of Shorten on PPM. The gap was closing and closing”
ah that would be according to the polls that turned out to be complete bs right?