The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.
The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.
That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.
UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).
Just voted in Griffith – I have never seen a ballot paper full of so much right wing bile.
I had to put LNP third because after that came pauline, Clive and anning!!
Senate paper wasn’t much better!! Thank god for the legalise pot party, pirates and others… otherwise marking 6 above the line would have been tough.
Zero independents.
Very disappointed that the booth I handed out at did not have sausages. Only a cake stall. Not the same! (it was in a very Liberal area).
For information on democracy sausage availability.
https://democracysausage.org/
Labor should commence it’s Liberal myth busting from day one. hot on the heals of the Bob bounce….this would be a good place to start https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6129073/coalition-economic-management-myth/?cs=14258
And remember, if it lies, it’s Liberal. They can’t help it.
Sceptic@2:19pm
Even volunteers of Palmer party are vulgar and loathsome. 🙂
heels
“For information on democracy sausage availability.”
***
Critical information to acquire before undertaking one’s democratic duty!
Liberal booth workers all voting below the line for Molan
There were no democracy sausages at Swinburne Tafe Croydon where I voted. Still, there was a short line so I was happy.
Expect Labor to win comfortably, probably 80-85 seats.
“Very disappointed that the booth I handed out at did not have sausages. Only a cake stall. Not the same! (it was in a very Liberal area).”
My liberalish booth had nothing, not even cake.
Yes no food at all where I voted
In Gorton at my booth no Greens volunteer for 3 hours. No Palmer worker in sight all day.
Libs having a bit of shortage too and can cover only 1 entrance for the last few hours.
Vibe is ok but worthless indicator.
Sceptic says:
Saturday, May 18, 2019 at 2:17 pm
Massive massive contrast between footage of Bill & Scott voting..
Bill & Chloe.. together smiling the whole bit.
Scott & Jenny … Jenny ducking avoiding getting in Scotts way being ignored.. then in the end Jenny helps Scott post his vote
Can anyone explain ?
————————————
Scott Morrison knows the end of his short term prime ministership is nigh
Been handing out in Forde all day so far. It’s swinging hard to Des Hardman. Expect an early call in Forde. Strong Labor gain.
Jackol @ #894 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
Is zero countless? Does a null set exist? If nobody is looking, does a Dutton falling make any noise?
So many questions.
Well I certainly hope Dutton makes a lot of noise if he falls but I suspect there’ll be rather a lot looking.
No demo snags at the Hunter TAFE where I voted 1 Labor.
Spoke to the HTV guy and he sounded upbeat, but it’s a small booth that usually goes Labor regardless.
I pre-polled, so no democracy snag. 🙁
But it was at a shopping centre with a food hall. So I did get a democracy coffee and cake. 🙂
Captain Moonlight @ #876 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 2:10 pm
That reminds me of a fun fact about zero and infinity. It doesn’t matter how many ways you have to split it, you still end up with the same amount.
What an omen 😆
Hey, you do what you can to make sure the voters notice you.
“I pre-polled, so no democracy snag”
Probably too late on the east coast, but you can always go down to the local school and get one.
Prepolling shouldn’t mean or schools miss out on vital sausage supported funding!
Scomo swapping preferences with a party that features a volunteer who exposes himself in public.
If other booths are anything like this one, the paid UAP staff have checked out and are sitting around on their phone. Maybe they know there’s every chance they won’t get paid.
According to the betting markets, Labor should have an easy win.
According to the vibe here, the Coalition will win in a canter because voters are apathetic everywhere and the elderly have bought the Liberal propaganda.
Which to believe?
I always remember my mum calling me after doing how-to-votes in the safe Liberal seat she lived in and telling me the swing was on and we were going to have a surprise Labor win (statewide, not in our seat per se) and it happened despite my skepticism about this “vibe” thing- that was Bracks over Kennett.
She had the advantage of handing out at the same booth for years, and talking to everybody in sight, and what she detected was that even many people taking Lib how to vote cards sounded angry about Kennett, and the people not taking Lib how to vote cards were steaming mad about Kennett.
Abbott dropped his sausage sango at my booth
a r – probably a little bit of an overstatement 😛
From my few hours at the booth, I think people have just made their minds up.
UAP volunteers having a bit of a misunderstanding over the meaning of “democracy sausage” ?
A lot of perennial doom merchants and concern trolls in here, like always, a bit dispiriting for those who are actually working on the booths today.
@poroti
Not sure that a bad photoshopping effort qualifies as an ‘omen’
ABC booth footage showing almost all voters refusing to take the blue HTV cards.
Believe in me, ar.
The impossible is possible tonight
Believe in me as I believe in you, tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOG3eus4ZSo
Well, when I got my sausage (and voted), I only saw a single HTV being carried and that was for the Libs. Therefore, I’m predicting 150 house of reps seats for the LNP.
🙂
“According to the vibe here, the Coalition will win in a canter because voters are apathetic everywhere and the elderly have bought the Liberal propaganda.”
most of those old fogies vote lib or nat anyway.
Some will hopefully have the decency to think about climate change for their grandkids.
“So I did get a democracy coffee and cake.”
Yes! Another great excuse to have coffee, not that one is needed! For democracy! 😀
Abbott just went into the booth past the exclusion zone. Not sure if he has voted or not. Sounds dodgy.
Thats the situation at my booth. The two young women “volunteering” for Palmer aren’t even bothering to engage or handout to anyone – they’ll give out a HTV if asked, but otherwise mostly just talk among themselves.
Even my totally politically disengaged, “walk past the HTVers as fast as possible” housemate commented on how disinterested they seemed.
Sadly, neither one has flashed anyone yet.
@JM: In the marriage equality vote, the “I met loads of people who were totally going to vote yes until they saw how horrible the marriage equality campaigners were and now they’re voting no” line was a favourite of people like Dutton and Abbott and other lunar right Christian hate-spewers like Karina Okotel. What a surprise that Dutton is trying it with GetUp now. It was BS then and it is BS now.
Meanwhile at the MCG the wasteful Saints trail 4.9-33 to Collingwood 6.2-38.
BK – Robbie Young did a sensational chase and tackle but sadly missed after getting the free kick.
Labor will win today.
Not so sure about Saints – sibling here tops another draw!
Those endorsing Crabbe’s analysis are wrong. Short of soiling himself on camera or saying something overtly racist or sexist he could hardly have done worse. He lost every debate, he’s never been ahead in any poll, and he’s failed to articulate any policies let alone win the policy debate.
What Crabbe & co are too blind or too scared to analyse is the nexus between right wing lies, a lack of any policy, a lack of any serious examination of their time in office, and a compliant and useless media. Bill Shorten can’t personally speak to every voter – it all gets filtered through the mass and social media. Morrison has only remained competitive because both forms of media have allowed him to run a substance free campaign of lies while relentlessly undermining Labor.
The climate change debate summed it up. Instead of the focus being on the LNP’s appalling record and lack of any policy whatsoever, it was all about the alleged, false, cost of Labor’s policy. The media was complicit in that narrative and did the nation an enormous disservice.
She either doesn’t get it, or isn’t allowed to tell it like it is.
Asha Leu
Doesn’t sound as if Clive is getting value for money. 😆
ltep @ #916 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 2:13 pm
Dutton chucking a tanty live on national telly would be entertaining. 🙂
I am expecting one from Hanson too. Clive & Fraser will have bitten a sizable chunk out of her support base.
lizzie @ #791 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:56 pm
lizzie
Would love to have seen hospital staff faces if you’d told them the reason you wanted to get home. PB is so addictive on election day.
The dogs would have missed you. I missed your posts.
Reading the vibe can be tricky because at the last state election I noticed nearly everyone in the line had the Liberal HTV and they were mostly quiet and seemed grumpy so I thought Dan Andrews might be in for a rough night yet the booth swung 6% to the ALP.
Steve Watson @ #782 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 12:51 pm
Aw, steve. I wanted it to be so. Darn.
I’ve played a little sport, not much, but it was ice hockey. I learned it in my mid 40’s, starting with learning how to skate. It wasn’t pretty. It still isn’t. The point though was I learned more than just how to get from one end of the rink to the other quickly and inelegantly, and how to bloody stop, and what a hoot of a game it is.
What I learned is that some people play forward, others defence, you have to switch in an instant, but the goalie is key. It applies to democracy too. It’s late in the 3rd period. The buzzer goes soon.
Regarding Tony in the exclusion zone. There was footage on twitter about an hour ago of him talking to people lining up to vote and it looked very close to the doorway. There was also a photo of an election official talking to him about his proximity to the booth.
Both photo and video have been removed. I wonder if Tony has been. Was happening at Manly public school I believe.