Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

Comments Page 3 of 27
1 2 3 4 … 27

  1. Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25.

    I just had a look at the Lingiari ballot draw and Labor are at the top, with Greens second, and CLP last.

    The Solomon draw also has Labor at the top, with CLP third.

    Bring on the donkey vote! 🙂

    https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

    –––––––––––––––––––

    Dan Gulberry @ #71 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:05 am

    As always thanks for the Dawn Patrol, BK.

    However I’d personally nominate Centrelink as nominees for Areshole(s) Of The Week for this shocker.

    A Melbourne man died from bowel cancer while waiting for his disability support pension claim to be approved in what his advocate called “one of the worst cases” she has seen.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/08/man-died-of-bowel-cancer-while-waiting-for-disability-support-pension-approval

    Another thing that the incoming Labor government (fingers crossed) needs to do is a thorough review of the entire Centrelink organisation with merciless purges at the top of the tree if necessary, and quite possibly criminal negligence charges laid.

    Morrison, Porter, and Tudge should all be doing long stints in jail for the Robodebt extortion racket alone.

  3. torchbearer @ #90 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 9:03 am

    I am with you Victoria- the ALP supposedly has this huge war chest, yet there is barely any TV ads, Facebook ads, mailouts, billboards- virtually nothing. I am bombarded with LNP stuff though…what is going on?

    Maybe there’s a deluge coming in the final week of the campaign. Or maybe “look at how much we saved running the campaign” will be the surprise answer to “how are you going to fund all of your promises?” during the final debate.

  4. Hopefully they are concentrating mailouts in marginals. I am in bendigo, and loads of lib propaganda is appearing in my mail.

  7. The relevance of the Murdoch Media (and Stokes and Costello) will be shown by the election outcome

    Meanwhile do not subscribe – starve them of oxygen

    They survive on advertising revenue (hence the collapses of 10, 9 and Fairfax, the write downs of valuations by Murdoch, the divesting of assets by the Phoenix 9 Network and the staff retrenchments elsewhere)

    Absent subscribers they have no audience for those advertisers – and will wither decaying into their own vitriol

    In terms of the comments by the RBA Governor and the media limiting their interpretation to employment, do not overlook wages which has been a campaign of Lowe’s since he succeeded Steven

    So employment trends AND wages growth

    No doubt, a consideration is a change of government particularly given comments on wages and the RBA has held off from the decision to further provide impetus given a change in government will set the parameters for a focus on sustainable wages growth

    So the Rate decision yesterday was a “wait and see” decision in anticipation of a change of government

    From these emergency settings, the RBA has not much room to move and particularly given no supports for the economy from a Right Wing, ideology, austerity driven government

    Hence “wait and see” given the prospect of a change in government and of ideology

    Given a change of government, the RBA will sit pat on rates pending economic recovery impacting on National confidence, inflation resuming within the band and interest rates increasing

    Media reporting is Party partisan and incorrect in its context

  9. JM

    Morrison, Porter, and Tudge should all be doing long stints in jail for the Robodebt extortion racket alone.

    There were wails yesterday about the egging being “political violence” .When it comes to political violence it is zero compared to the political violence those from those arseholes committed against the less well off people of Australia. 🙁

  10. ‏
    Verified account

    @samanthamaiden
    1m1 minute ago
    More Retweeted
    Labor claiming this story was planted in the Daily Telegraph by the Libs and this is why Scott Morrison won’t hold a doorstop to defend it. Of course, Bill Shorten can tackle it at the debate tonight.

  13. Probably because they’ve determined that kind of blanket advertising isn’t as effective as people think.

    As subtle as a WWII saturation bombing raid.

    Some “good news, everyone!” ads in the final week would be a breath of fresh air.

  15. I’m in Aston and I’ve had one pamphlet from Labor, one from Palmer’s mob, and enough from the Liberals to deprive some owls of their woodland habitats. Read into that what you will.

  16. We saw the odious Miranda on Sky backing up the DT story but forgetting how often Bill has talked about his Mum’s law career. Neither talking head challenged it altho I’ve heard them talk about it.

    But .. we are in for a treat on Sunday. A little suggestion that Morrison’s wife and mother may speak at the launch. Talking head suggests it will show Morrison’s deep concern for women of Australia. How lucky are you

  17. “Or maybe “look at how much we saved running the campaign” will be the surprise answer to “how are you going to fund all of your promises?” during the final debate.”

    The debate isn’t a vote changer in the way blanket advertising would be. You have to actively decide to watch the debate, which few actually undecided voters will do. Blanket advertising gets to more undecided voters. If something is repeated enough times where everyone is sick to death of it there’s a chance that it may have filtered down to a small handful of voters that actually matter.

  18. I have to agree with others, I barely see any Labor Ads on TV but I thought thats because i dont watch much TV. All I see is the ‘you cant afford this bill’ ad from the Libs and some of the union Ads. Where the heck are Labor ads? Have they saved all their ads for the last week or something?

  19. Victoria @ #85 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:55 am

    C@t

    What is frustrating is how easily they believe this sort of stuff.

    Ah ❗ How I long for those dreamy days of long ago when the talk du jour would be of consciousness raising .

    From what base of knowledge would one believe complete bullshit ❓ Harking back a thread or two when the size of the amygdala was said to denote how well (or otherwise) one would respond to fear.

    Therefore gullible, fearful folk must have an amygdala the size of a football (NRL please) and

    The Red Neck Radio and the Murdochracy understand the power that fear plays in forming opinions (faux) and responses. The attacks, distractions and lies have a purpose which is to manoeuvre some of the readers/listeners in the direction required for the benefit of the engineering party (radio/newspaper).

    For many years my means of combating this form of ratbaggery was to inform the dickheads spouting complete bullshit with the following.

    You, dear sir or madam, are a complete, 100% fuckwitted ding a ling, a moron, a ning nong, stupid is your game – a hopeless dull witted cats paw and recipient of the golden orb of the know nothing award

    Strangely enough I think that approach did not win friends or influence people towards my views.

    So those high flying aircraft spraying the populace with mind altering substances need to become part of a plan to calm the fears of the foolish and fearful.
    Aerial spraying of Anti-Anxiety Medications such as •Benzodiazepines —- Valium (diazepam), Xanax (alprazolam), Klonopin (clonazepam) and Ativan (lorazepam) are sometimes used to treat anxiety for a short-term period. …

    and so on.

    Teams of highly trained specialist clad in primary coloured outfits (soothing) will need to go house to house demonstrating to frightened occupants that the only things under the bed are dust bunnies and odd socks – not a communist – chinese warlord – muslim lady wearing headgear – no halal food – and so one.

    Will the above be enough. Quien sabe – qui sait -who knows.

    And so time for house cleaning. 🧹

  20. All Political parties are focussing on social media to communicate their messages. I suppose that’s where the swinging voters live.

  21. Greensborough Growler @ #110 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 9:24 am

    ‏
    Verified account

    @samanthamaiden
    1m1 minute ago
    More Retweeted
    Labor claiming this story was planted in the Daily Telegraph by the Libs and this is why Scott Morrison won’t hold a doorstop to defend it. Of course, Bill Shorten can tackle it at the debate tonight.

    I reckon Bill will be ropeable about this by the debate tonight. He worshipped the ground his mum walked on.

  22. Hmm. Paddy Manning smells the Liberals going all out in the last week:

    Where the bloody hell is Scott Morrison’s campaign? A crackdown on trolling and a few bucks to promote the Australian Made logo would hardly make the grade on a slow news day, and are woefully inadequate announcements from a depleted government in desperate need of a case for re-election, 13 days out. With his frontbench team barely visible and the policy cupboard bare, the prime minister smugs on alone, propelled by his apparent popularity edge over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. The contrast with Labor’s policy-rich campaign, led by a frontbench team bristling with talent and hungry for power, could not be sharper. Yet somehow Morrison pushes on, keeping the Coalition in contention.

    There were decidedly mixed signals in today’s Newspoll and Ipsos surveys, but both showed Labor in an election-winning lead and a tightening in the government’s favour: according to The Australian, voters were [$] “turning sharply against Bill Shorten”, while the Nine newspapers reported that voters had marked Morrison down over the past month and were “turning towards Opposition Leader Bill Shorten”. The picture is confusing. David Crowe observed this morning that “there is something missing from this campaign”, and it’s hard to disagree.

    It’s not policy substance that’s missing. In the wake of today’s debate between Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and his shadow, Chris Bowen, ACOSS released research from the Parliamentary Budget Office. The numbers back up earlier analysis by the Grattan Institute – airily dismissed by the government without explanation – showing that the 2019 budget is built on the dubious assumption that, without major new spending cuts, public spending over the next four years will have to be held at the lowest levels of growth in 50 years. “How will the future be funded?” ACOSS asks. It’s a key question getting lost in the campaign.

    Bowen warned Frydenberg that Labor, if elected, would have a mandate to implement its franking credit reforms, and complained about the government’s lack of policy. “We come to the table with a lot. Josh comes to the table with not very many at all. No policies because they have no vision. No big-picture view of what this country should look like for the generations to come.” The Opposition, rather than the government, is boxing at shadows.

    As the two leaders haggle over a third debate on Wednesday night, shadow infrastructure minister Anthony Albanese got stuck into his opposite number, Michael McCormack: “I’ve written to Michael McCormack, I’ve sent text messages, I’ve sent smoke signals to try and find him. He can’t be found. He’s the deputy PM of Australia, he’s in charge of infrastructure, but I can’t find him to have a debate.”

    After Friday’s effort, Albo reckons, Shorten has got Morrison licked, “creamed absolutely. 1–0. Then 2–0. There were going to be three rounds. When you’re 2–0 behind, you maybe concede.”

    It’s almost as though Morrison has something up his sleeve for the last week, as the Liberals did in the New South Wales election.

  23. Bonza, I too have young relatives in the health care system. They vote Liberal too, but I think I have converted them with this statement.

    ‘If you want something meaningful done about global warming, you have to vote Labor’.

  24. If they are focussing on social media, I am led to believe it’s possible to highly target the audience. I wonder if people here are seeing nothing because they aren’t targeted?

  25. ‏
    Verified account

    @samanthamaiden
    4m4 minutes ago
    More Retweeted
    Liberals insist they didn’t push the story about Bill Shorten’s late mum – not sure if they are holding presser though yet ‍♀️

    C@tmomma @ #121 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 9:33 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #110 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 9:24 am

    ‏
    Verified account

    @samanthamaiden
    1m1 minute ago
    More Retweeted
    Labor claiming this story was planted in the Daily Telegraph by the Libs and this is why Scott Morrison won’t hold a doorstop to defend it. Of course, Bill Shorten can tackle it at the debate tonight.

    I reckon Bill will be ropeable about this by the debate tonight. He worshipped the ground his mum walked on.

    The best way Shorten can respond to the haters and perpetrators is to go on and win the Election.

    Don’t get angry, get everything!

  26. If Labor win without having kowtowed to the Malignant Super-Parasite Previously Known As Rupert, then the parasite and his cesspit of lickspittles are farqued.

    If Labor don’t take that chance to bury him for good, then they don’t deserve power.

  28. My husband and I get part aged pensions. This week we were told we had to produce all documentation of our income stream going back to 2011! All along we have always kept them informed of any changes. Enough to give you a heart attack! After we’d massed together our documents, trudged down to the local Centrelink office, waited for an hour and a half, a staff member told us 300,000 letters had been sent out asking for the same information. This department is a disgrace frankly.

  29. The Coalition don’t need policy substance because their whole campaign is built around a scare campaign based on tax and Bill Shorten. It has been pretty effective so far and they are probably at the best position they could hope to be at this stage of the political cycle.

  30. Laura Jayes
    ‏
    Verified account

    @ljayes
    Following Following @ljayes
    More
    Internal research is showing the Coalition has a lingering perception issue with women. Senior Libs concerned campaign hasn’t made huge inroads in luring back alienated women voters.
    On the flip side, that same research is showing ‘leadership changes’ and ‘turnbull’ is not the issue it once was.

    It’s not showing up in the Coalition’s research as a huge negative this campaign.

  31. Laura Jayes
    @ljayes
    Internal research is showing the Coalition has a lingering perception issue with women. Senior Libs concerned campaign hasn’t made huge inroads in luring back alienated women voters.

    Well, today’s headline story in the Daily Telegraph should work a treat then!

  32. DPM Michael just on telly telling everyone, the problem with the Darling is that the farmers can’t get enough water. Apparently too much is used on environmental flows. FMD.

  33. The coalition are still a policy free zone. Someone in the MSM needs to raise this. “Mr Morrison how come you have not announced a single policy of substance, thus far in the campaign?”

  34. I am on social media..endless wrap around liberal attack ads..I am in a marginal seat, daily liberal mailouts, and just one truly pathetic ALP one, highlighting how the candidate did ballet classes locally (but no detail of her uni or work history)

  36. I’m sure that Shorten will handle the #mumgate thing appropriately.

    RWNJ’s go Shortens late mum just before mothers day?? Idiot Libs.

    And, ScoMo is going into a live debate today wanting to cut “green tape”?

    That at a time when the non-enforcment of regulation on water has completely fwarked the Murrray Darling and people out there (natural Coalition voters…their BASE) are really really pissed off about it??

    Kamikaze suicide run or what 🙂 ???

  37. Maybe the Liberal advertising that a vote for Bill Shorten is a vote for Bill Shorten is so effective that Labor doesn’t need to waste their money 🙂

  39. I am in McEwan and have had a number of labor leaflets in the mail and we were doorknocked. I can’t recall any printed material from the Libs.
    I saw a very good labor ad on the tv last night during Masterchef – but it was only on once from memory.

    I thought that facebook material about death taxes was suppposed to have been removed, but it seems as if it is still doing the rounds from other comments here.

  40. Every time I open a page on the internet I get a Tory ad screaming Bill Shorten the Bill we can’t afford etc. Doing my fuckin’ head in.

  41. clem, they want to see just how close they can come to losing an unloseable election. Or they’re broke. I can’t think of any other possible reason.

  42. suave @ #128 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 9:38 am

    My husband and I get part aged pensions. This week we were told we had to produce all documentation of our income stream going back to 2011! All along we have always kept them informed of any changes. Enough to give you a heart attack! After we’d massed together our documents, trudged down to the local Centrelink office, waited for an hour and a half, a staff member told us 300,000 letters had been sent out asking for the same information. This department is a disgrace frankly.

    Only expect this sort of stuff to get worse if the Coalition are re-elected. These are the ‘Saves’ they trumpet.

  43. I think you may be right and further to that Andrew’s unscrupulous decision to run those State government ads having a go at the Libs funding to the states shortfall.

  46. “Can anyone inside the party explain A, why Labor’s ads are so poor and B why there are so few of them?”

    Alp is spending on the important stuff. Tim Tams for the volunteers doing phones, door-knocking and pre-polls.

    Hopefully also to pay the bar tabs at local functions on the 18th. 🙂

    Real, on the ground support stuff. Yay!! 🙂

    Seriously, the emphasis seems to be on supporting the person to person contact model. They have the volunteer base this time round to do that.

  48. clem says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 9:50 am

    Can anyone inside the party explain A, why Labor’s ads are so poor and B why there are so few of them?

    Are there really so few?

    Maybe it’s more the fact that there are so many other Parties and interest groups advertising these days. 🙂

  49. Jonathan Green
    ‏
    Verified account

    @GreenJ
    15m15 minutes ago
    More
    Such a twisted world view to see the story of Shorten’s mum as some kind of gotcha negative. A woman whose marriage ended unhappily, who fought to provide for and educate her kids. who then turned that determination to her own dreams. Aspiration, caring, love, ambition. Success.

  50. Forgot:

    14. Dodgy robodebt letters driving people to suicide
    15. Mass fish kills

    The Coalition has so many scandals running it’s impossible to keep them all straight. Maybe there are no Labor attack ads because there’s too many things to attack at once.

    https://youtu.be/DnBtoOAhba4?t=102
    (1:42)

Comments Page 3 of 27
1 2 3 4 … 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *