There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.
The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.
Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.
With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.
Good morning
I knew the campaign was going to hit new lows. I knew the Daily Telegraph was probably going to lead the charge.
True to form. They deliver. As another media outlet pointed out QandA probably sealed the election for Labor. It seems the editors at the DT agree.
Of course it would be too much to expect the DT to have a front page on the watergate saga, which gets more stinky every day.
I suspect it’s more skillful politics for Shorten to ignore the Terror reporting rather than dignify it by talking about it. Being distracted from the campaign by responding to RWNJ slander is playing into Mordor’s hands.
Meanwhile in Trump world, they continue to obtsficate.
Trump cried from the rooftops that he was exonerated, and yet he will not produce his tax returns or allow people to honour subpoenaes to front up to Congress.
He continues to do a bad impersonation of a despot
Got a vibe qld is going to disappoint AGAIN [for progressives] and even that odious tuber head will sneak back in. Tas should be ok. Vic is key.
The tax scare campaign is biting in seats where the necks are redder. The scare campaign alone is making the likely outcome 80+ seats instead of 90+ for the good guys.
80+ is still ok, but would have loved a landslide.
Max
Mr Shorten will repeat his statement at his presser when asked today.
However Labor AND the Greens should be in full attack mode of this new low. I say the Greens because this is an example of how Murdoch operates
When things look grey – remember –
Elections are not won by good opposition – they are lost by bad governments!
On that basis, a change in government is a dead certainty.
Those who vote for the Liberal Party or the National Party are characterised by the offerings of the Murdoch Media outlets
You lay down with dogs you get up with fleas
In the USA, with their President, we have a dangerous and deluded Twitter
In Australia, with Ad Man from Mad Men, we have a dangerous and deluded Twit
Victoria @ #52 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 6:06 am
Of course. DT readers don’t want actual news, they just want half-baked, hysterical drama and sledging of perceived opponents.
Fess
Yep. In a nutshell.
Brendan O’Connor
@BOConnorMP
This scurrilous attack on Bill Shorten is the lowest act I’ve seen in my 18 years in politics. Four days from Mothers’ Day, this dishonest & spiteful story on the late Ann Shorten in order to attack
@billshortenmp
demands an immediate and unqualified apology from
@dailytelegraph
Funny, I seem to remember The Daily Telegraph lauding on its front pages old codgers who graduated from Law or other degrees when they were in the twilight of their lives. Especially if they could weave in a backstory of adversity earlier in their lives which they surmounted, finally and successfully.
What Labor , the greens and others need to do is introduce media laws and a media authority with grunt to force the media to follow their code of conduct in factual , no misleading , no lies, no propaganda , no fiction , etc , punish those corrupt media outlets who are propagandising for libs/nats ,
I wonder if Scotty or others in the govt will condemn the DT.
After all it’s them who have been first to complain about the tone of the campaign wrt to poster vandalism and so on.
Confessions @ #64 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:29 am
You’re joking, right? They’d be loving it.
Ahead of his final debate against Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in Canberra on Wednesday night, Mr Morrison warned of a threat to the economy from the expansion of union “red tape” and environmental “green tape” that tied down employers when they should have more freedom to expand and hire workers.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/pm-shifts-attack-on-labor-to-green-tape-he-says-costs-australian-jobs-20190507-p51ky0.html
The day after we were warned about global mass extinctions, PM Knuckledragger tries this on!
Scott
Fair point.
Confessions
That’s why I think the Greens should say something about the DT article
They can make the point about the UN extinction report not being on the front page.
Really drive home how much it’s propaganda.
I’m not on Facebook myself, but those close to me say that people are sharing information that Labor will be introducing death tax policy, and people are believing it wholesale
As always thanks for the Dawn Patrol, BK.
However I’d personally nominate Centrelink as nominees for Areshole(s) Of The Week for this shocker.
Another thing that the incoming Labor government (fingers crossed) needs to do is a thorough review of the entire Centrelink organisation with merciless purges at the top of the tree if necessary, and quite possibly criminal negligence charges laid.
There is no better illustration of the mean spirited, sheer nasty place that Australia has become than the very organisation that is meant to help Australia’s most vulnerable.
In the wake of the news yesterday about extinctions and AGW, has our esteemed Environment Minister come out from her cave to say anything?
*sarcasm*
Al Pal @ #39 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 7:36 am
That’s petty. He should say that if Labor wins the election they’ll reform media ownership laws and strip the Murdoch family of its media empire.
Surely everything you see would look polarised to you if you lived inside a glass house.
“I’m not on Facebook myself, but those close to me say that people are sharing information that Labor will be introducing death tax policy, and people are believing it wholesale”
Victoria
exactly, this sort of crap is the only thing keeping this mob in with a chance.
pithicus
Agreed
Victoria @ #70 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:34 am
Just comment: Fake News
C@t
That’s what my connections are doing, but they see how insidious the messaging has become.
Another great line from Bill Shorten about the ‘cost’ of Labor’s Climate Change policies:
He was even more dismissive of the usual questions about the cost of Labor’s climate change policies.
“Australians are fed up with people getting the wrong end of the telescope and turning it into a microscope on the cost of taking action on climate change,” he said.
”Most other people recognise there is a cost to environmental inaction …smart businesses are already investing in change.”
Victoria @ #78 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:43 am
Then, just get more dismissive. Ask for proof, and if all they can come up with is a fb post, then tell ’em they’re dreaming! Also, locate a rebuttal from a Labor spokesman.
We have to do this and be as assiduous in our chasing this stuff down as they are in spreading it around.
Credit to the Guardian they have been covering the extinction report.
As this day of the week ends with a ‘y’ there is a shooting in a yankee school. Thank goodness they have so many thoughts and prayers to solve the problem of school shootings.
.
.
At least seven injured in school shooting
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/07/us/colorado-denver-area-school-shooting/index.html
Good Morning all and thanks again to BK for the Dawn Patrol.
While attempting to see what Mr. Whatsisname’s minions have managed (in their attempts at crashing the New York Times best selling fiction list) at The Daily Telegraph, I was presented with the following.
Hmmm ❗
Reading on we come to
The question arises chez KayJay ===
How, at a glance, can one recognise those of our fellows who would fall for the propaganda shown above ?:
Answer —
Fresh coffee – that’s the antidote – fresh coffee. ☕☕☕
guytaur @ #56 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:14 am
Labor and the Greens should be in full attack mode on many things:
1. Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison
2. Watergate/Barnaby
3. Reefgate
4. Visas for au-pairs/Dutton
5. Political use of the AFP
6. Jobs for mates, including ABC chair
7. Cayman islands tax shelters
8. Huge debt increases from 2013-2019
9. No actual budget surplus, and hugely unrealistic projections
10. Multi billion-dollar handouts to large corporates /unfair tax plan that favors the wealthy
11. Climate inaction/”coal is good for humanity”/Extinction report/Abbott
12. Abuse of refugees/casual racism towards non-whites/denigration of Muslims and homosexuals
13. Expensive CX photo ops to boast about how refugees will continue being abused
…but they haven’t been. Except for one ad where the narrator inexplicably pronounced “chaos” like “cows” all of the attack ads I’ve seen have been from the Coalition, and all of them have been fear-mongering on taxes.
C@t
What is frustrating is how easily they believe this sort of stuff.
a r
Labor advertising so far has been anemic to say the least
Max @8:08,
The backstory about Shorten’s mum is a good one, there is no need for him to try and ignore the DT BS.
It seems I’m still in a family of Tory voters. I can’t compete with talkback radio when it comes to convincing my old man.
More surprising is that I just found out my sister plans to vote Lib. She works in healthcare and has bought into the narrative that Labor stuffed up the health system in SA.
I think the desperation of the Tories and their Media will show us even more about the type of Australia they want to ‘conserve’. In a rura area working with local kids and their families there are endless stories of the way some of our local squatocracy feel about their workers and on many occasions I have intervened when asked if a son/daughter or even a parent should apply for jobs with some of our ‘finest’ families.
At the foundations their attitude is that, if you have to ‘sell’ your labour, you are beneath contempt and can be treated accordingly.
Bill’s Mum should not have been able to raise herself up through dogged effort and in no way compares to someone born into greatness and went to the right school etc.
I am with you Victoria- the ALP supposedly has this huge war chest, yet there is barely any TV ads, Facebook ads, mailouts, billboards- virtually nothing. I am bombarded with LNP stuff though…what is going on?
Yesterday I mentioned an omen bet which was running in race 4 at the Menangle trots. It was named The Space Invader and its trainer and driver both had the surname of Morris (close enough to Morrison).
Well appropriately it ran second and paid $2.80 for the place. Unfortunately for Scomo there are no prizes for second in politics.
torchbearer
No idea. Maybe zoomster has some idea of labor’s strategy
Probably because they’ve determined that kind of blanket advertising isn’t as effective as people think.
J341983
I understand that. But what about some focus on mismanagement by the fibs as outlined above by a r.
Reef gate and watergate are big ticket items.
We are talking about 500 million dollars plus just there alone
We in Perth are lucky we do not have the option of the DT, but as the new editor of the West has come from the DT we suffer his pathetic choice of headlines………..
Today: “Explosive Column…Paul Murray: Egg an MP and you should go to jail” the front page screams. This, according to the blurb is …..”the view of respected columnist Paul Murray (the local WA variety of course).
There are just so many things one could point out that is so weak in this leader……..the fact that Murray has been a long time Labor basher/pro-Liberal warrior, that he might be respected by the older cohort that now form the major market for the West, and the fact that while I hope all public office holders are respected (e.g. teachers who are often physically assaulted by kids and parents) Murray has lost his marbles on this one.
And to show just how seriously one should take the piece……..the smarty-pants compiler of the header could not resist this addition………….”Beyond a Yolk”…………..And Murray expects to be taken seriously? Give me a break.
One thing that is kind of obvious is that the West has gone into tone-down mode for most of this week and this is a puzzle to me. However, I am sure next week it will all be articles about the end of the world as we know it, if and when Labor gain office.
Oh, and on the basis of some kind of sympathy vote, Morrison has slipped one ahead of Bill on the “Who is winning the campaign?” with the scores now 10-9-8. Eight being a tie…………….
I’ve yet to receive anything in the mail from Labor, but several things from the Liberal Party. Admittedly I’m in a safe Labor seat so maybe they’re just spending accordingly, but it’s unusual by this stage of a campaign.
Chris Bowen
@Bowenchris
I’ve worked closely with
@billshortenmp
for 6 years. I know what motivates him in public life. His answer on #qanda summed it up well. The vile alleged “journalism” on the front page of
@dailytelegraph
says more about how desperate our opponents are than it does about Bill.
Mike Carlton
@MikeCarlton01
Crawling in the sewer, the Shitigraph today attacks Bill Shorten through his late mother. It’s filth. The Murdochrats are getting antsy, aware that a Labor government won’t jump when they snap their fingers.
I don’t know … but there’s huge amounts of research behind messaging and what kind of approaches are impacting where and with whom?
I would like them to be a little more pointed, but again, I understand those issues (by understand I mean that I spent time trying to understand).
I think there’s a rule in political messaging that if you need to remind or explain an issue before attacking – you’re already behind.
Of course ABC radio news at 9.00 led with the Telecrap story, but only after it spent a couple of minutes spruiking Morrison’s latest pronouncement.