There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.
The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.
Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.
With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.
Bill’s tie is much better this time.
“I said we bought the budget back to surplus next year”
No you didn’t.
Morrison getting shouty again…
18 hundredish. Vote for the pirates or the animals below the line followed by Labor no 3, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2 and then Rice, and any other progressive types then just in case your vote it’s still live, keep going until you can’t tell the difference any more. Why? When your vote is passed on as a surplus it has less weight than a vote that arrives without electing anyone. If Rice needs your vote more than Labor 3 then you’d have to vote Green 1, Labor 2 above the line etc. I’d probably prefer Hinch to the Liberals or the DLP or whatever else you Mexicans use for nutjobs down there. I’d lean towards the below the line option giving a full vote to Labor no 3 because Lisa Singh, Bob Day vs Stirling Griff show us that Labor can’t put together a group voting ticket to save themselves.
@TheAge
BREAKING: A single punter has invested $1 million on Bill Shorten to win the election in the single largest bet ever recorded by betting agency Ladbrokes.
http://ow.ly/fryq50u2JPN
That effing smirk…
Bill back onto Climate Change, infrastructure, invest in people
Andy Murray says:
“Land tax, wealth taxes. It works for the Swiss”
Oh? It is preferable Australia become a tax haven is it? Have you considered other tax treatments by the Swiss where they allow UHNWI’s pay a pittance of the amount they do in Australia?
“…in order to attract ultra high net worth individuals who contribute meaningful amounts to the Swiss economy, some of the 26 cantons within Switzerland are willing to negotiate an annual flat tax.
The flat tax avoids the need for any declaration of worldwide income… the tax is … not on the basis of earned income, but on the basis of an estimate of the taxpayer’s living costs in Switzerland. The tax is individually negotiated, but is typically calculated based on “five times the rent or rental value of accommodation in one’s own house in the case of tax-payers who run their own household”..”
http://www.hnwimmigration.com/switzerland
Australia and Switzerland are not hugely out of step with each other in terms of wealth inequality either. Many states with death taxes are far more unequal (e.g. UK, USA).
And in any case, if another nation might trade their citizens ability to realise freedom for more fleecing & redistribution from the government there is no reason this society should trade its own.
Other nations get propagandised into doing any number of terrible things.
Someone in the press should remind Scott of this..
Last election, Joe Hockey promised a “guaranteed return to surplus within one term”, a promise that voters certainly heard as “putting a date” on the surplus. It was upbeat, it was encouraging and it was ongoing.
Before the 2013 federal election, Hockey not only pledged a surplus in his party’s first year in office but “every year after that”. Voters would have heard him “put a date on” a surplus at that time, too, even if he was quick to step back from his commitment at the last minute.
On the eve of the election, Hockey downgraded his pledge of a guaranteed surplus in one term and forever to “an ambition” to be “on-track” for a surplus at the end of Coalition’s first term.
There should be a question to Morrison about the GST
Recently the libs/nats increased the GST online from 0% to 10% for under $1000
The Howard government introduced a 10% GST
I think what we are seeing is Shorten doing well, but this is more of a set piece format.
First thing Shorten does in a town hall or QANDA format is connect with the questioner. He cant do that here and is generally more wooden in the set piece.
Format suits ScoMo more, but he’s still trying to sell a crap product.
People laughing at ScoMo. Not a good sign.
Shorten nailed that question.
Scotty flicking the switch to porkies – mind you, Sabra is bowling up some full tosses on leg stump to him
For Chrissake! Explode this Tax fetish!
…to pay for their yacht mooring.
Scotty and Bill pay tax. #bigdifference.
Yabba oh dear. I highly doubt any API is written for the optimised use of VBA. And VBA, Excel, shell calls to another compiled app for array handling. I, along with AR weep for you.
My completely integrated arbitrage trading bots on the other hand spin on and on. 😀
No leader is looking great here. The cheer squad makes it look like a terrible Punch and Judy.
Franking cashback rort is a winner for Labor, at many levels
Confessions @ #914 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 7:56 pm
I thought he was a bit weak on the economy/surplus question. He needs to co-opt the line from the other side:
“We’re going to grow the economy. And we’re going to do that by investing in infrastructure, and by funding schools and universities, and by getting wages to start increasing again. And when you grow the economy, you protect your budget and maintain your surplus.”
Or something to that effect.
4% of people benefit for this rort, why are we wasting time on this?
Wasn’t it already established thanks to 730Report that all these retirees need to do is shift their super investments to industry super funds, and problem solved?
Religious freedom FFS
Sabra doesn’t like Bill’s answer on franking credits: somebody farted look at 10 paces. Offends her Petite Bourgeoisie sensibilities. …
ar:
That is essentially what Shorten said.
Bills doing well on Sabra’s questions which all seem to lean right on the topics.
Yes, AE, and then she gives Scotty her sweetest smile.
Piss poor debate.
Once more with feeling: who picked these questions? Nothing on AGW, THE most important issue facing this country, and much, much more important that religious freedom.
God, this is fucking tedious. Back to bingeing Vikings on Netflix for me.
Yeah, but apparently you need to be a “full stack Ruby dev” to be a
contendercandidate, Zeh.They should stop the clapping on both sides.
Religious Freedom. Yay. Hitchens give me strength.
Judging by the audience, clearly if you find a Liberal voter in Canberra you’ve found a true blue supporter. If you’ve found a Labor supporter you’ve found a regular public servant.
This is such a shit format.
Shorten looks drawn and tired.
Can’t watch the debate, relying on PBs commentary
So far seems scomuck doing well?
Confessions @ #927 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:01 pm
I think that’s what he was going for, but I didn’t hear the specific words “we’re going to grow the economy”. That’s the thing that ties it all together.
Sabra is tanking here
Hahahaha Ruby…
Sabra Lane . . . FAIL!
“Bills doing well on Sabra’s questions which all seem to lean right on the topics.”
Petite Bourgeoisie
Interesting on the freedom of speech. ScoMo went declarative for his answer, Bill goes conversational and interactive. 🙂
Did Bill just say that religious freedom was more important than contract law?
LGH bought it hook line and sinker.
Joy 🙂
This is absolutely drivel.
Climate Change. – unfortunate debate says Sabra
Scrolling here for info on the “debate”
Salaries and Wages along with Superannuation are taxable deductions for business, along with other expenses including the non cash Depreciation resulting in Gross Profit leading to the Net Profit a Company pays tax on
The other night after contributing on here I estimated the tax I paid across 30 years in the workforce, Contributions Tax, tax on earnings whilst my Superannuation was in Accumulation Phase, FBT plus Levies etc etc plus the GST which tax continues
The figure is in excess of $1 Million and toward $1.5 Million – and continuing at (say) $10,000- a year due to the GST
Imagine that compounding in my name over 56 years from commencing work until now
Some contributing on here have no idea, absolutely no idea
Do I bemoan the tax paid?
No
We live in a society and the tax I have paid is my contribution to the society I wish to live in
But reading some of the contributions on here, attacking those who thru their (I repeat their) efforts and discipline find themselves today in acceptable financial circumstances and able to provide a legacy to their children and grand-children, I am starting to have second thoughts
Those who focus on the circumstances of others and attack an Accumulation (I repeat, Accumulation) of wealth are bludgers of the first order
And, worse, they expect their sniffing an oily rag Financial circumstances to represent the benchmark for others
Bringing everyone down to the lowest common denominator
We have contributed tax (and still do)
What do you contribute?
Except jealous bile
Finally climate change!
Scomo seems to have canned applause
Shorten awkward on the folau issue