Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.
There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.
In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.
The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.
Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.
More leaked internal polling lol..
@FightingTories
Leaked liberal internal polling has them at 46 – 54 and Victorian polling shows the election is already over
So the cost of the impairments on the Balance Sheets of our banks is being sheeted home to employees – who are being sacked in numbers to preserve an impaired bottom line (and, except for NAB, maintain dividends no doubt because the Executive are rewarded on Share Price)
These are the banks this government fought tooth and nail not to be subject to a Royal Commission
Labor should reinstate the Royal Commission with the powers it should have had previously
And now they reduce costs – ie sack huge numbers of staff
Liberal Party friends
Observer says:
“Says it all really, doesn’t it? You have to earn it to pay it Ever thought of that?”
People on the left are often quite capable of applying human psychology to the workplace, but will then dump anything they have learned when it comes to human behaviour elsewhere.
The left know for instance that the best way to have good relations with workers and get the best out of them is to treat them fairly, and gain worker “buy in”.
The more a worker feels mistreated, or that their labour is unappreciated or coerced the less they are likely to contribute and their efforts to short their employer increase.
Taxation is the same, the psychology is the same. I have never met a wealthy person that thought taxation rates near 50% are fair. When people think that something is unfair, and their compliance is only achieved via coercion resistance manifests itself in myriad ways.
I am not one of those earners, but I agree with them that their taxation rate is too high when there are other ways to raise the funds without increasing the burden on workers either.
A society that relies on coercion to enforce edicts that the people they fall on find unfair is not one that will ever run well or reach the level of harmony & efficiency it is capable of.
@Zoid – that tweet is unclear.
I thought the leaders had agreed to a third debate this Wednesday evening.
Apparently scomo will be taking the gloves off for this one.
Matt31
Just popping in to say much the same. Grab any chance to bag Labor & more importantly at this time, muddle things. No mention of anything else happening today.
Alpo @ #1080 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 6:10 pm
ABC making as much of this Keating ‘poison’ as they possibly can, but sounding embarrassingly strident in the process.
Humanity can have a future.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1125038879944454144
It appears the articulate and erudite Liberal candidate for Chisholm has all but gone to ground.
Last update on the (official?) FB page is 28.4.2019
A potential win to the ALP but (myeeere!) perhaps not a seat to be taken for granted on either side of politics.
Chisholm could potentially end up one of the most closely contested seats a’la Corangamite.
Interesting times ahead.
People would not remember or care who Keating was and or what he said yesterday.
Cheers.
“According to @tabcomau , one punter has just chucked $54k on Labor to win the election at $1.22 #”
He or she might have seen the ALP’s internal polling from VIC. 😉
If the Libs hang onto Corangamite they’ll win the election . Based on the established narrative coming out of Victoria, it shouldn’t even be close.
“So the cost of the impairments on the Balance Sheets of our banks is being sheeted home to employees”
If banks are not shafting their employees they will shaft their customers.. in reality they shaft both.
The truth is though that banks over the next 15 years, no matter what, are going to shed at least half of their remaining staff. Automation and AI are ripe to rip apart the need for workers in the space and soon even the ranks of the elderly will be full of people that are effectively tech-native reducing the need for branches and staff still further.
We do need effective banking regulation though and the government will always hold all the cards in this space with the power to push government agencies or control into any space the banks occupy. Banks should not be delivering the returns for shareholders that they do at the expense of their customers – this is as economic inefficiency that holds the nation back – either force competition to reduce profits and a better deal for customers or tax the profits at a higher rate to return some benefit to the community. Bank workers are going to get shafted any way you slice it, anything the government can do to address that issue will just be window dressing. Every $50 per hour job that can be outsourced for $5 will be and every $50 per hour job that can be eliminated altogether will be.
Jobs in banking offer us nothing and we are better with the efficiency. If we were in the business of saving jobs &/or inefficiency manufacturing would be a better place to do it.
Kathryn Robinson would be an excellent moderator for 3rd debate.. finance reporter background Ex Macquarie Bank. A very fair & intelligent interviewer.
@LGH – People who are meant to pay 50% tax (and its only 50% over a certain threshold) rarely pay 50% tax. If you lower that then they’ll just pay lower again. Much as I hated that old corrupt Queensland Peanut Farmer, a flat 25% tax on everybody with no deductions on anything would probably raise more revenue than the current system, that’s like trying to harvest water with a fishing net.
Yep Keating’s comments first item on abc Sydney news.
Ffs. Must be a slow news day.
What prime time debate ? Is the Press Club going prime time ?
labor’s primary vote is shit. It has clearly dipped significantly in the last few months.
Why Labor hasn’t been railing against the coalition’s incompetent rollout of the NBN is a freaking mystery.
A rolled gold disaster.
An appealing waste of time and money
Crickets.
Sometimes I think Labor doesn’t want to win.
ABC banner
No story yet.
Henry @ #1114 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 7:02 pm
Ticks all the boxes:
Anti Labor – tick
National security – tick
Fear of China – tick
Matt31 @ #1099 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 4:46 pm
Very few care about foreign affairs. Of the few who do care about any given foreign affairs issue, they care deeply about their chosen issue and will bore the rest of us to tears with their encyclopedic understanding of that issue at every opportunity, regardless of how inappropriate. Anyone thinking of wading in on the issue needs to realise that they made their minds up about who they were voting for a very, very long time ago and they are not persuadable.
Foreign affairs can only ever loose a party votes in an election – i.e., look at the fallout from any mention of Israel related issues, however benign. Foreign affairs should not be touched with a barge-pole during an election campaign.
I have been at pre-poll in The Entrance, in Dobell, all day. The sitting member Emma McBride was there all day as well. We had four volunteers, 2 upstream from the entry, and 2 down.
The morning was frantic, queue of 30 or so out the door, until about 1 pm. Then eased up a lot, and last 3 hours was very flat, maybe 50 voters total.
Libs had their candidate, and four others. They had some disgusting A frames, fearuring distorted Bill faces, and outlandish statements, like “Petrol will hit $2.23 a litre under Shorten” with Daily Telegraph as the quoted authority.
Jim Molan had 3 hander outers, pushing a 1 below the line in the Senate for him, with blue HTV’s that looked just like the Lib ones. Palmer had two, with pretty yellow HTV’s, both being paid. The Greens had one.
An independent was also there, with a fancy printed t shirt, but no paperwork. He shook lots of hands.
Very difficult to understand his motivation, although he seemed rational, and pleasant enough.
Impressions. No real conclusions to be drawn. Those who took only one, selected HTV, were about 1/3 of the punters, and I would say they split 50/50, us v them.. Others split 50/50 between “no thanks” and taking the lot.
mundo @ #1117 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 7:06 pm
Nothing appealing about it.
Geez, glad you’re not writing the script…
Are you whingers really Labor supporters?
Large number of ALP ads on FM radio in Melbourne both positive and negative. Also heard a getup ad.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #1115 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 5:07 pm
Is that this Wednesday? I assume Leigh Sales will moderate seeing as she is preferred by Scotty.
Labor needs to pick its fights. It wants to run a positive campaign and being as aggressively negative as you’re suggesting would likely backfire.
It’s only the Tories that can run a campaign entirely on aggressive negativity and it have a chance of success.
@nath
Not Dunkley. Labor polling reckons 55-45.
Pick another Vic seat.
And the lies keep spewing out of their mouths!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-06/zombie3a-dividend-imputation/11084344
Mundo, I’m sure the Alp will have more to say and do on the nbn after the election.
In this febrile, pre election environment where the msm and Murdoch are at maximum shrillness, opening up a new front for them (by suggesting the alp will spend x billions to fix the mess) is not necessary. Eye on the prize and all that.
Kate says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 7:09 pm
Apparently!
I blame immigration from the UK. 🙂
Heard Karvelas interviewing Frydenberg.
Asked him whether Dutton, Abbott etc will be attending the launch.
Josh said that they were probably going to be out campaigning, defending their seats, and implied that quite a few Libs were under threat.
Didn’t get asked why, if his government was so brilliant, there were so many Coalition MPs under threat.
Ragnar
Deductions are a tricky issue. Realistically they are supposed to be for necessary expenses that were incurred in earning income, so that an individual pays tax in the same manner as a corporation: the profit from their actions rather than the revenue.
Cut them out entirely and take two guys earning $100k, one had $0 genuine expenses earning his income, the other $30k, is it fair they pay the same tax? (assuming a tax bill of $25k) person 1 is left with $75k after earning their income poor number 2: $45k!
There has to be a way to curtail the largess of dedications whilst still keeping some core.
E.g. I am not sure which party proposed a limit on “deductions for managing tax affairs” but things like that sound good. E.g. keep the $250~$1000 deduction for Joe blow, expand it up to $10k to cover most who would use it but end people claiming $100k+ for managing their tax affairs as they effectively keep people “on staff” to do so.
You can then toy with ideas like a “floor rate” of tax, but my fear then would be people consider that as the rate they “should” pay and so aim for it.
How about tax returns that report every every deduction item, and a mandatory audit for every return claiming over a certain threshold? E.g. all deductions over 20% of earned income, all deductions totalling more than $100k.
Everything uncovered in the audits if not at the time illegal could still provide the information for sewing tight what is allowed.
I just think we need to be more flexible on issues than: “this appears to offer something to the rich (regardless of overall benefit) so I am going to reflexively argue against it” I believe we see from the left.
As you note if there are hundreds of loopholes for the rich closing those would seem to be better than trying to make them pay some imaginary high scale they never do anyway.
Dobell seems to be a safe labor retain yabba.
Boeing has admitted it discovered a safety alert in the cockpit of its 737 MAX plane was not working as intended, yet it did not disclose that fact to airlines or US federal regulators until after one of the planes crashed months later.
Now THAT’S a big mea culpa!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-06/boeing-knew-737-problems-before-lion-air-ethiopia-crashes/11084326
Shorten has already raised the woeful NBN in the last debate from memory, when he challenged Scotty by repeating that statistic about Australia being ranked 61st or 62nd in the world for internet speed.
J341983 @ #1125 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 7:12 pm
Labor and the Union Movement are cashed up and will not die wondering about whether they could have done more to win this campaign.
The Libs are broke and the main reason they have delayed their launch till next Sunday is they haven’t got the cash.
This Election is about to ramp up and Labor has all the cards.
Righto, time to watch lethal Leigh interview scomo.
I’m sure she will be as tough, uncompromising, bolshi, hectoring, interrupting as she was with Shorten last week.
I still remember an interview with her when scomo signed off with “see ya red”.
zoomster says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 7:15 pm
I read the transcript on the Guardian blog and it didn’t seem like there’d be too many non-Victorians there.
I wonder if Howard will front?
I thought Josh did a wonderful job outlining their policy vision. Keating was spot on there.
Liberal Leigh softened Bill Shorten up with 10 minutes of whingeing Poms losing their franking credits, then the live interview.
No such intro for Scotty, there may be some negative Liberal lead in – and then “I spoke with the Prime Minister earlier”
A little birdie tells me internal polling rates Higgins as very much in play for Labor or Greens.
Bk the whole 737 saga has a sniff of the Ford pintos about it.
Yeah it’s deadly, but we’ll make money out of it in the meantime, that’ll cover the lawsuits.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/1977/09/pinto-madness/
Let’s not forget, when Malcolm Turnbull was PM – after a hard hitting Leigh Sales interview, interspersed with the odd giggle – they decamped to an upmarket Glebe noshery for dinner.
LR: Please put me down as another Essential 52:48. Thanks.
Bluey Report 12 days minus the Day.
Bluey has a confession to make. Bluey has thought for the past six months that Labor would win an additional 9 net seats to form a majority government. Bluey has also had the view that Di Natale, Morrison and McCormack will be gone as leaders by the end of 2019, no doubt being replaced from the rich depth of leadership talent waiting in the wings of their respective parties. Ahem.
Bluey notes that Morrison has done a dirty deal with a guy who won’t pay his workers. Uh huh. Birds of a feather.
Bluey notes that Shorten has won two from two debates. Bluey would like to see a multi-cornered debate with all the leaders of the odds and sods on the platform at the same time using a sort of World Wrestling Political Tag Team format. Bluey reckons that watching Katter, Hanson, McCormack, Palmer, and Di Natale slog it out would lift anyone’s spirits.
Bluey reckons that there will be a further small tightening in the polls before May 18, but that we are essentially where we will be the Ides of May plus three or May XVIII.
Bluey notes that over 650,000 people who plan to be sick or travelling on the 18th have set themselves free by voting early.
Bluey is not a gambling occie and is not a tout but he reckons get on Labor if you want to make a bit of ready.
It had not occurred to Bluey that Oakshott would pick up a seat which sort of makes it a net 10 seats, Oakshott being nothing if not rational, albeit in a long-winded fashion.
Bluey reckons that Bandt and Katter will hold their seats, thereby neatly cancelling each other out.
Bluey reckons that apart from Bandt and Oakshott, the Indies are closet or outed right wingers and might just as well be counted as Liberals. Bluey reckons that the Liberals will win back Indi and Wentworth, and that Abbott will hold Warringah. Bluey reckons that Sharkie will beat Downer but that Sharkie is, politically, a less self-entitled Downer.
Bluey reckons that the only faint skerrick of hope for a new Indy getting up would in Mack knocking off Ley. Bluey reckons that that is unlikely.
Nothing that anyone has said or done for three months, none of the polls, nor any external circumstances, has encouraged Bluey to deviate from the view that Labor will gain a net 9 seats.
Bluey has inspected the inland areas smashed by the Drought and notes that much of it is as shattered as northern parts of the Reef.
During his travels Bluey observed Ms Hanson weeping tears of self-pity at the Dickson breast-groping imbroglio, Di Natale trying to parasitize Labor with his pathetic look-at-moi routines, and Morrison dicking around with a dead dog. Bluey asks himself what happened to dignitas and gravitas? Pathetic, all three of them.
Bluey was delighted to see that Shorten, Gillard, Rudd and Keating have buried their various hatchets (pro tem) in the graveyard of political history rather than in each other’s backs. Bluey notes that Howard will be exhumed but that Turnbull will not be attending the Liberal launch. Abbott might be given a seat up the back somewhere.
Bluey hopes that Hawke lasts for long enough to see Morrison get his just desserts.
Bluey reckons that today the running sore of the $77 billion Free Lolly for Toffs Plan is starting to hurt the Coalition. Massive confirmation bias. Even the most pedestrian MSM journalist has figured out that repeating the question, ‘How much is it?’ works as a gotcha.
The core truth of the $77 billion is that it is all going to the Big End of Town while ordinary Aussies struggle. Bluey is happy to see that Labor are personalizing the $77 billion. Morrison gets $11,000 extra in the kitty per annum as a result of that $77 billion. Greedy bastard.
On balance Bluey reckons that the mystery of the missing $77 billion will hurt the Coalition more than Labor’s view that there is no real means of costing Labor’s climate policies.
Bluey notes that all parties managed to hold onto what is left of their candidates for another 24 hours, which just has to be good for democracy.
Bluey notes that this election is more likely to be a seat-by-seat slug fest than a general swing.
Taking into consideration all events during his travels, Bluey updated the cumulative scores as follows: Labor 18 points; Coalition 4 points.
Today’s score: Labor 1 point. Coalition. 0
Cumulative Score: Labor 19; Coalition 4.
Scotty is a no show for Qanda before the election, apparently.
I have a question about this: What’s the incentive to not just leave the launch to the last minute? I get the launches have nice optics and are a good opportunity to show the leader being cheered on by the faithful but I could imagine other ways you could achieve that. Can anyone who understands this stuff explain why parties don’t just leave their launches to the Friday afternoon before the election (or the latest legally possible date)?
Greensborough Growler says:
“The Libs are broke and the main reason they have delayed their launch till next Sunday is they haven’t got the cash.”
Just anecdotal, and my family are very low FTA TV consumers (only really switching on for Lego Masters & the occasional football game in the last year) but in order of advertising material our household have seen this electoral cycle it would run:
1. Palmer – mix positive/negative messages (everywhere)
2. Liberal “the Bill Australia can’t afford” (80% of Palmer’s run rate)
3. Trade Union bits (30% of Palmer’s run rate)
4. Labor & Greens equal with each other (20% of Palmer’s run rate or less)
Perhaps Labor is running a more print focussed campaign that I am not seeing? Otherwise I have no idea where they are spending their dollars.
In terms of physical signs my electorate (Perth-Moore) it is 100% Liberal as far as I have seen.
If Liberal Leigh was genuine, she would pull up Scotty every time he starts to slag and bag Labor’s policies, by saying “We are here to talk about YOUR policies…”
Let’s see