The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.
Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.
Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.
Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:
With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.
In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.
Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.
The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.
However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.
As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.
The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.
| Newspoll method | Past election: A | Past election: B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | |
| Primary | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 |
| Greens | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 |
| UAP | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| One Nation | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Others | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| TOTAL | 48.6 | 51.4 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 47.7 | 52.3 |
briefly says:
Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 11:23 pm
It always amazes me that, given the ability to very easily block ads, people still see ads at all. On the rare occasion I use a computer other than mine – like in a library – the presence of ads always takes me by surprise.
-clem attlee:
-Well my take on this is that Labor need to campaign a bit more actively against Palmer. I’d be going for broke making the nexus between Palmer not paying his workers at all and Morrison supporting wage cuts. Also the conflict of interest that Palmer has in deriving benefit from the Tory tax cuts.
BINGO! Don’t worry, it’s coming
I don’t even believe the poll
I think labor will win on May 18
I believe the poll and still think Labor will win. 🙂
guytaur says:
Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 11:25 pm
Andy Murray.
Disengaged and their minds made up.
There are many voters who have not yet decided how they will vote. Some are just busy with other things. Some are irritated by politics in general. And some are really aggrieved. The sense of grievance is being cultivated by the Lib-clones. They want to upset vote-transference from Lib to Labor. They are escalating the fight. Voters are really repelled by it, but it is having the effect of disrupting decision-making, causing postponement and avoidance. It is hurting the whole process, but the Libs don’t care about that. They want to break up the flow. It’s working to some degree, though it also seems to be hurting the Libs too.
I don’t think Newspoll should have made up a preference flow for UAP without any evidence to back it up. It may work out in the end but guesswork shouldn’t be part of polling IMO.
Also One Nation preference flow to Coalition should lessen as the party drops PV and LNP voters return to Libs.
On the day of Victorian election, Newspoll was 54-46
It ended 58-42
And just plain not there, G.
It’s school holidays in NSW and elsewhere, and the weather’s been warm, so parents of school-aged kids are away from home. Plus with I certainly made the most of it.
In my work, I am watching the electrical load at a tourist destination. This week has seen the highest load every recorded at this location. The inference is that there are more people there than ever before. The combo of Easter and ANZAC day has done it.
The campaign really started today.
Only 20 more days folks.
Stop worrying about things you have next to no control over.
Was there ever any analysis done on why the Vic polling was noticeably out (while I don’t believe the same happened for NSW)? Any thoughts on which would be more representative for Federal polling?
MOE could have this poll at:
Labor 38
LNP 38
Green 10
UP 4
ON 4
With 80% of Green preferences and 43% (my guess)of UP and ON combined preferences going to Labor, I get:
Labor 49.4
LNP 44.6
2PP Labor 52.4 LNP 47.6
PS: William and others – is there any history of Labor getting more than 80% of Green preferences? Or perhaps given that it is a far bigger issue this election, do bludgers think the flow might be higher this time?
This poll has Labor winning.
That’s all you need to know!
Newspoll vs Galaxy
Newspoll has LNP +1, UAP +1, OTH -2
PUP preferences flowed 0.56 to LNP in 2013, and KB uses OTH as 0.529 to LNP
So the difference between LNP for Newspoll and Galaxy should be;
1 + (1*0.56) – (2*0.529) = +0.502
If Galaxy and Newspoll use the same methods to calculate 2PP it means that the only way there could be a 1 point difference in 2PP would with rounding would be if Galaxy had LNP 47.99 and Newspoll got them at 48.51
But Galaxy was already questionable imo that their result could be 47.5 to enable it round to 48, so i dont know how this Newspoll can be legit.
Maybe they are choosing to use a new way to calculate 2PP ?
Charles: KB uses 81.9% of green preferences to ALP
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2016/09/federal-2pp-aggregate-methods-45th.html
Tomorrow we will realise, this poll has another tweak in it to assist the Coalition situation. We were told months ago that was going to happen.
For some time they used their PHON tweak now it will be a UAP tweak.
After all the Galaxy poll was taken Tuesday to Thursday of last week and this poll was taken Friday and Saturday. The variance is huge, think about it. Two different stories from the same period.
Morrison and Murdoch will do anything to win, that is clear.
And, they are.
My bet is the real figure is about around 52.7 to Labor, where Galaxy put it. I bet Essential has around there as well.
May 18 is going to be an awful shock to the Liberals.
This is Victoria all over again. Enjoy the ride.
I’ve added this poll to BludgerTrack, and it hasn’t made a lick of difference to it. This is because I’m pretty much going off 2016 preferences and treating the UAP as part of the amorphous “others”, whereas Newspoll is, I gather, giving the Coalition 60% of prefs from both Palmer and Hanson. I suspect the truth lies in the middle.
Cheers bug1
What about my guess of 57% flow of combined ON and UP preferences to LNP?
Good stuff, William
bug1
Have now caught up on your previous post and read Kevin’s article.
Bug if you use the info William supplied above you get 48.7% for the Coalition – 38+3(UAP)+2.4(ON)+1.8(Greens)+3.5(Others) – preference flows UAP & ON 60% Greens 20% and Others 50%.
The UAP 60% May be arguable so it could be 52/48. Either way Labor wins
The most pathetic I would say.
Charles: “What about my guess of 57% flow of combined ON and UP preferences to LNP?”
Comes out 52:48
Let’s say 51-49 is correct… surely the Palmer effect is yet to take place, coupled with the fact that Labor’s childcare policy is popular (so, it’d probably be 52-48 r/now).
What is the result using the preferences from the last election?
Bottom line here is that 51/49 (or maybe more like 51.3/48.7 is well within the margin given a “true” figure of 52.4/47.6 which is where BludgerTrack is at the moment.
It would not be improbable for the next Newspoll to come in at 52 or even 53. In fact 53 is a little bit more likely than 51. Again, assuming BludgerTrack is correct. Now that would screw the narrative 🙂
So when is next Newspoll? one week or two?
Puffy: “What is the result using the preferences from the last election?”
52:48 (last election UAP Federal 2013: 54% prefs to Lab, last election ON NSW 2019, 60% prefs to Lib)
And when are the next Galaxy and Essential polls?
this is a disgraceful result at this stage – all down to bill – lack of spontaneity, orality, extemporary thought, charisma – can’t even walk in sync.
high price for one man’s ambition
EGT
That is the way I like to see it because it gives consistency across the results.
So I am not worried.
(yawn) nothing to see here.
Not so surprising given the lack of veracity strewn across much of the remnant newspaper industry and the newly formed duopolies of newspapers and free TV.
Not so surprising considering we have a government so willing to overlook some very dodgy transactions of public monies.
Not so surprising as we have allowed corporations to become so wealthy that they no longer feel obliged to consider the LNP government as anything more than a road bump in their path of unfetted profit making and tax avoidance.
I viewed some of the so called debate on sky tv and found the level of interaction frighteningly unrelated to fact.
So many interests have a monetary inducement to maintain the present status of government that it has become an “outside looking in” picture of reality.
Parties associated with this present government have been paid hundreds of millions of dollars to let rainfall reach the Darling River and the alarm bells don’t ring.
The forces opposing Labor’s changes and the determination to win at all costs by the LNP will result in a wild dusty street brawl which will not end with an election result.
The support Abbott received as an attackdog in opposition is still real.
Ths powerful forces opposing Labor will still be at work on Monday 20th May.
Looking at the economic telltales it maybe a good election to lose.
The fact that l personally would love to see the benefits of a number of years legislative restoration and environmental consideration will not change the the votes of nearly half the population that I feel completely alienated from.
I certainly hope that the seemingly unbridgeable gaps developing between different groups of people does not lead to a more damaging and telling outcome.
I am not in the least surprised to see a closing of the published polls regardless of all the possibilities.
‘Come on the good guys’ is the cry from many an opposing ‘weird mob’.
It will be very unlikely on election day that if the libs/nats combined primary vote is 38% that the 2pp would be 49%,
It would be likely libs/nats combined primary vote
38% =2pp 46.5%
Fun times ahead for lawyers
At least 19 United Australia party candidates have submitted incomplete or inconsistent information to the Australian Electoral Commission, failing to provide evidence they are eligible to run for parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/question-mark-over-eligibility-of-at-least-19-clive-palmer-candidates
I thought “other” was generally allocated 60% to coalition so putting UAP under a seperate heading and saying that 60% of their vote would go to the coalition so, moving those votes into a new column did not influence the 1% shift.
poroti
That’s worth a Wow!
Clive’s judgement has always been suspect. Perhaps he should stick to twerking.
If these candidates end up ineligible after the election, I assume the main parties will benefit.
lizzie
Wow that there were only 19 of Clive’s Clowns involved ? 🙂
poroti
That’s another angle, yes. 🙂
Who agreed to these idiots hosting the first debate? More like the first debase.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Bagshaw and Ireland headline Shorten’s announcements yesterday as a “cash splash” that sets up the election contest.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/bill-shorten-sets-up-election-contest-over-budget-priorities-in-35-billion-cash-splash-20190428-p51i04.html
David Crowe begins his contribution with “Bill Shorten has made the boldest move of the election campaign so far by making himself a very big target. This is a moment designed to get Australian voters to sit up and take notice of the policy gulf between the two major parties – on tax and the services it pays for.”
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-moment-designed-to-get-australian-voters-to-sit-up-and-take-notice-20190428-p51hyw.html
Sean Kelly, in a thoughtful article, contemplates what would happen in the event of Shorten losing the election.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/if-bill-shorten-loses-the-election-three-things-will-follow-20190427-p51hse.html
The AFR says that Labor has lifted the temperature ahead of the May 18 federal election with a $6.9 billion spending blitz targeting the cost of living and a threat to regulate childcare fees.
https://www.outline.com/KVAM5C
Michelle Grattan’s take on the latest Newspoll.
https://theconversation.com/election-tightens-in-newspoll-labor-lead-narrows-to-51-49-116145
Ans she tells us how Morrison has brought immigration centre stage with a freeze on refugee intake.
https://theconversation.com/morrison-brings-immigration-centre-stage-with-freeze-on-refugee-intake-116129
Ross Gittins tells us that Treasury has quietly signed off on what he describes as the budget’s “fantasy forecasts”. This is one hell of a put down!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/treasury-signs-off-on-budget-fantasy-forecasts-20190428-p51hwt.html
Cara Waters writes that the government is coming under pressure to act on the recommendations of the franchising inquiry, with Labor pledging it will urgently establish a taskforce to implement them if elected.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/political-football-government-under-pressure-on-franchising-inquiry-20190425-p51had.html
Judith Ireland says Labor has gone big with kids but the challenge will be to convince voters it is worth $10 billion of their taxes to fix it.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-goes-big-with-little-kids-20190428-p51hxb.html
Paul Karp reports that at least 19 United Australia party candidates have submitted incomplete or inconsistent information to the Australian Electoral Commission, failing to provide evidence they are eligible to run for parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/question-mark-over-eligibility-of-at-least-19-clive-palmer-candidates
Greg Jericho is pissed off that reality rarely gets a run in an election campaign full of feigned outrage.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/apr/28/reality-rarely-gets-a-run-in-an-election-campaign-full-of-feigned-outrage
Controversial preference whisperer Glenn Druery has brokered a deal between Labor and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party in a bid to win or hold three key marginal seats in Victoria.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6093615/hinch-and-labor-in-preference-exchange/?cs=14225
Michael Koziol says that it is not surprising the maverick three-term conservative George Christensen sees no reason to say sorry to the voters of Dawson for spending more time in the Philippines than Parliament over a four-year period – a scandal that has made headlines around the country.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/george-christensen-says-voters-don-t-care-about-his-philippines-trips-and-he-s-mostly-right-20190428-p51hyo.html
Katharine Murphy writes that combating poverty and boosting equality of opportunity is a core economic strategy, Bill Shorten says, promising a major focus on “unlocking the potential” of Australians if Labor wins on 18 May.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/bill-shorten-poverty-wastes-people-it-wastes-opportunity
AustralianSuper says a huge loophole has been written into draft regulations that were supposed to eliminate trailing commissions. Hmmm. Incompetence or wilfulness?
https://www.outline.com/g7hGg7
The liquor, hotels and gaming lobby made its highest level of donations in seven years in 2017-18, pumping more than $1m into the Liberal, Labor and far-right parties.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/29/liquor-and-gaming-lobby-pumped-more-than-1m-into-liberal-labor-and-far-right-parties
Judith Ireland explains how pre-polling is changing the nature of elections.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-silent-revolution-how-pre-polling-is-changing-the-nature-of-elections-20190426-p51hhk.html
These academics tell us just how the three weeks of early voting has a significant effect on democracy.
https://theconversation.com/three-weeks-of-early-voting-has-a-significant-effect-on-democracy-heres-why-115909
Adele Ferguson expands on the latest franchising underpayment scandal.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/chatime-s-franchisees-embroiled-in-underpayment-scandal-20190428-p51hx7.html
And she tells us that a Tax Office whistleblower is facing 161 years in prison for calling out a misuse of power against small businesses but Christian Porter won’t intervene.
https://www.outline.com/hZEH3Y
According to these experts public schools actually outperform private schools, and with less money.
https://theconversation.com/public-schools-actually-outperform-private-schools-and-with-less-money-113914
Fergus Hunter bemoans the fact that Australia continues to slip down the broadband premiership table. We are now 62nd!
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/australia-drops-to-62nd-in-global-broadband-speed-rankings-20190428-p51hz2.html
The peak super investor body has called for sweeping changes to the corporate governance regime, including the annual election of directors and a binding vote on pay.
https://www.outline.com/D5H6B4
More from Cara Waters as she reports that The small business ombudsman has branded the tax office’s use of debt recovery actions against small business “excessive” and said it is sending small businesses to the wall. A report released yesterday by the ombudsman examines the Australian Taxation Office’s practice of utilising garnishee orders against small businesses.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/inquiry-finds-excessive-debt-recovery-action-by-ato-against-small-business-20190426-p51hhq.html
The SMH editorial declares that it is only a long and sustained coordinated effort that can end family violence.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/only-long-effort-can-end-family-violence-20190428-p51hzz.html
Professor Hugh Bradlow takes us into the future for automobiles.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-car-that-sends-itself-to-the-mechanic-is-not-a-fantasy-20190428-p51hwo.html
And Labor’s pledge to have 50 per cent of the government fleet switched to electric vehicles by 2025, and the much tougher target of a 50 per cent electric vehicle composition of all new car sales by 2030, is aimed at making government departments the key drivers of change in the years ahead.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6030931/how-public-servants-will-help-drive-australias-electric-car-future/?cs=14329
John Harris says that with England being in such a mess Scotland’s case for splitting away is stronger than ever.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/28/england-mess-scotland-splitting-away
Robert Reich says that in fighting all oversight, Trump has made his most dictatorial move.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/28/trump-congress-mueller-white-house-oversight
Need a morning purgative? Then here’s Amanda Vanstone!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/will-the-real-bill-shorten-please-stand-up-20190425-p51h6x.html
Another sparse Cartoon Corner
What a beauty from David Rowe!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5OSgeEUIAAVS8C?format=jpg&name=small
Pat Campbell goes to town on MDB mismanagement.
Jim Pavlidis doesn’t think the public is engaged in the campaign yet.
From Matt Golding.
Sean Leahy and state school overcrowding.
From the US.
I don’t know what to make of this poll result.
But it doesn’t matter at all.
Because there has never been a worse Australian government in my lifetime than the one since 2013. And by worse I mean there has never been a more incompetent, a more corrupt, a more visionless and worse led (all three leaders and their National Party counterparts) government.
Policies do not matter, although Labor ones do exist and are largely very good. The popularity of the Labor leader does not matter. For Australians in average circumstances – even those who are politically disengaged – it should be plainly obvious, despite the media, that anything Labor puts up has to be better than what is now in place.
If it turns out to be the case that a majority of voters in a majority of electors returns this puerile pastiche of a pretend government then the problem is my country. Even a Labor Party led by Mark Latham would be better than what we have now, so utterly bereft of morality, ethics, competence or even basic decency are these banana republic wannabes!!!!!
So, I don’t care about the polls. It would be nice if they showed Labor winning in a landslide. At the moment they still show Labor with a consistent and sufficient swing on a uniform basis. All I care about is that there are enough non-stupid self-destructive voters in Australia on 19 May that we no longer have to continue our surge towards banana republicanism.
…but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives the Coalition 51.4%
Well, no. It gives Labor 51.4% actually. 😡
As I had hoped – I have woken to the news that the Spanish election has almost certainly returned the Socialists’ Sánchez as PM.
PSOE (Socialists) – 29.3% – 123 seats projected (early approximations)
PP (People’s Party) – 16.7% – 65 seats
Citizens – 15.3% – 54 seats
Podemos – 14.2% – 42 seats
Vox (new Far Right Party) – 10% – 24 seats
PSOE and Podemos will be close to the 176 majority, and with the support of regional parties Sánchez will remain PM. Turnout was 75% which is massive for a non-compulsory vote.
Vox (started by fringe elements in the right-wing PP) enters Parliament but fell well short of what they thought they would get. The PP itself had its worst result ever.
TPOF
well said
The libs/nats combined primary vote would need be 6%+ higher than Labor’s primary vote to be in a majority government
WB: good job explaining the result;
Another thing to consider is how UAP (and perhaps a changing PHON vote) is changing 2PP on a state by state bias.
i.e. UAP will obviously effect primaries in QLD, but its less obvious if they will have any influence at all down south. And if UAP is taking PHON voters that will effect effect existing state biases for PHON.
And that is before considering if changing primaries to UAP/PHON is effecting 2PP at all, they are known to not follow HTV cards.
All these two polls have done is make things fuzzier in my mind, we need state breakdowns before we get any extra clarity.
I still consider there is a good chance for a result comparable to the ruddslide of ’07
TPOF
I agree.
If the Coalition win, the rest of us will be in a state of shock. It will prove many things, mainly that the RW press have far too much influence, and that the majority of us are lazy thinkers. Banana republic indeed.
Paul Karp reports that at least 19 United Australia party candidates have submitted incomplete or inconsistent information to the Australian Electoral Commission, failing to provide evidence they are eligible to run for parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/question-mark-over-eligibility-of-at-least-19-clive-palmer-candidates
The wheels are falling off Clive’s clown car already. Even before he gets any of his sock puppets into parliament. God forbid!
Well, I guess this result will stop the Coalition saying stupid shit like Bill Shorten is measuring up the curtains at The Lodge or waiting for a coronation. 🙄
Liberals launch Stronger Defence nonsense!
I still think Labor will win because liberals don’t have any policies for people.