The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.
Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.
Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.
Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:
With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.
In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.
Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.
The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.
However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.
As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.
The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.
| Newspoll method | Past election: A | Past election: B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | |
| Primary | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 |
| Greens | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 |
| UAP | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| One Nation | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Others | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| TOTAL | 48.6 | 51.4 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 47.7 | 52.3 |
wow mundo has lost the plot, this poll doesn’t show anything good for the Coalition really when you dig down into it.
This poll tonight has encouraged me to sign up to volunteer for the ALP over the next fortnight.
Steve ……yep spot him quite regularly at the local shop, if you need a image of a psephologist he is it
Wll my take on this is that Labor need to campaign a bit more actively against Palmer. I’d be going for broke making the nexus between Palmer not paying his workers at all and Morrison supporting wage cuts. Also the conflict of interest that Palmer has in deriving benefit from the Tory tax cuts.
mundo – take a long break. If you look at this situation and think it’s over, you never really thought it was possible.
Bye now.
As for this poll and the election in general, I’m not too fussed by it all. My life as a high income earner goes on regardless. It’s funny but I have never received a brass razoo and nor would I ever want to from the government of the day.
Tax me more, I have no issue with that as long as it goes where it should.
Labor should win and probably will. As it should.
The conservatives in this country are appalling and deserve to be consigned to the dustbin of history.
If the rest of the country can’t see that and vote these liars and thieves back in then what can I say or do about that.
Australia, you will have deserved it.
That said, I think the good guys will win. We have to. The country and the planet needs us to.
Could I vote for Mundo as the most aggravating bludger?
“If you really believe that you’re more deluded than most here.
It’s over.”
Oh. Hanrahan. Lol.
The LNP cannot win with a primary vote less than 40%. Being the opposition will help boost labor’s preference performance, not the other way around. Especially in a compulsory preferential voting system.
Take out the UAP bubble and nothing has actually changed beyond the margin of error since November 2016. Not one little bit.
Cue more pants-wetting from people who can’t read a poll from their arse!
Sorry guys I’m on your side and they is nothing to worried labor will be in government on May 19
“Wll my take on this is that Labor need to campaign a bit more actively against Palmer. I’d be going for broke making the nexus between Palmer not paying his workers at all and Morrison supporting wage cuts. Also the conflict of interest that Palmer has in deriving benefit from the Tory tax cuts.”
Agreed. For all his “Lib-Lab. Same-same” ads, Clive has nailed his colours to the mast. So has ScoMo. This can only end badly for both.
This 51:49 simply confirms that this will be, as most Australian Federal Elections are, a tight race.
Statistically, Newspoll fares better than either Galaxy or Essential in predicting the final winner but none are particularly accurate due to the chestnut of swings being uniform. Swings mean nothing unless universally transformed into marginal seat wins. Everyone on a blog like this should know that.
On that basis, the ALP has more statistically likely avenues to win this election, though I think we can safely rule out a whitewash. There is the minor possibility of a hung parliament, like the first Gillard government. She held a bigger number of seats going in (83) but only obtained 73, needing Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie to form minority government. Her primary vote and personal approval rating was higher but the TPP margin, slightly larger than Scomo has as incumbent now.
Minor parties will certainly muddy the water in this election, but either party could end up in minority government on this basis, though I would give the ALP a 70% chance of success on these figures, given previous Federal Elections.
Lets see what happens in two weeks and six days.
The poll is 52-48. If it was reported as 52-48, together with approval rates and PPM it would have been a bad look for LNP and would have demolished the narrative in sections of media about how the campaign was going.
Until Newspoll comes clean about what exactly it does with preferences I will be taking it with a grain of salt. Not a conspiracy theorist or poll denier, just evidence suggests something doesn’t add up.
The apparent UAP support doesn’t really surprise me. The mess both major parties have made in the past 8 years of what used to be stable government has turned many people off. We need a PM that lasts a couple of terms to get things back to some sanity.
It can’t be Morrison in my opinion.
Which Wayne woz that????
Ghost has just tweeted that UAP’s 5% is +2 from the previous poll. That adds a bit of context to these numbers.
AE
I’d be going for broke making the nexus between Palmer not paying his workers at all and Morrison supporting wage cuts.
Palmer will pay in the next 2 weeks 1/2 then.. the rest on the never never.
So Labor should use Albo to hound him.. mocking all the way.
I guess if Scumo is angry at us for the #IDontLikeScottMorrison tag we’d all better stop using it!
Surprise the media supported libs/ nats lost a point in the combined primary vote , what is confirmed that 38% is the peak for them
Libs/nats. Will be well short what is needed
Henry
says:
Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 10:35 pm
As for this poll and the election in general, I’m not too fussed by it all. My life as a high income earner goes on regardless.
_______________________________
I’ve known a lot of wealthy people in my life. None of them felt the need to get online and announce it. In fact, they always played it down. Just saying.
@Lincoln
Newspoll is not counting new young voters, mostly older people.
I am guessing that Labor will win the election with a slight majority in their own right still.
UAP will fade away over next few weeks because he’s not paying his workers- which will hurt him.
Labor is already focusing on that while releasing new positive policies.
What mess has labor made in the last six years Davidwh?
Davidwh
The apparent UAP support doesn’t really surprise me. The mess both major parties have made in the past 8 years of what used to be stable government has turned many people off
So a rational person gets turned off & votes for Palmer..
Palmers voters are fantasists, still waiting for the Titanic’s second maiden voyage.
Having Palmer front and centre for the next couple of weeks provides a perfect opportunity for Labor to turn the conversation towards fairness in the workplace. Can only be a good thing.
Nath, as a pool guy, not sure how you would know that.
Just saying.
What mess has Labor made? We are the one mainstream party that can genuinely offer stability and unity.
It was the previous three years that was Labor’s mess Henry and the the Libs doubled down. And people wonder why voters are looking at alternatives.
More anti-Semitic Labor candidates exposed, it’s all crashing down for Labor.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-candidate-to-resign-over-antisemitic-post/news-story/bd76cc5f6aa480b3df73e2661e7e1377
DWH
Yes. It takes time to recover perception. Especially when your party has been in opposition.
So the government chaos and division dominates the narrative.
Davidwh, labor have been stable for the last 6 years.
We’ve learnt our lesson.
Libs have had 3 pms in 5 years.
I know the UAP are standing in each electorate but will they have people on the ground at every polling booth handing out HTV cards?
Henry that is why Labor will win but it doesn’t stop voters from looking for alternatives.
kirky
says:
Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 10:56 pm
I know the UAP are standing in each electorate but will they have people on the ground at every polling booth handing out HTV cards?
__________________________
he’s spending 70 mill on ads. why not 2 mill to pay people to do that. Makes sense.
Old news bree
Vote LNP Think of your Children
I think Newspoll knows best if it is 51/49 or 52/48, they have the figures we do not
I wouldn’t mind looking at an analysis of Palmers ad spend. He’s spent far too much on SKY I think. YouTube might have been a better target.
The big plus on the stability front is that the progressive vote is still up.
Labor and the Greens are stable on primary and progressive Liberal types are looking for a home.
Let us not forget that the majors have been bleeding primaries vote for a few decades now.
Even if the leadership changes in Canberra over the past decade had not happened there its still 10-15% of the electorate that will not vote Labor, Coalition or Greens.
It is no surprise that any party with a bit of exposure gets mid-single digits
Laura Tingle has tweeted the Newspoll numbers don’t add up.
I think all the psephologists will be in demand for media explanations tomorrow
People have said it does not include Labor’s Spending Spree today but I think will be one of their problems
But I do agree that I do not see why Dental Care is not covered by Medicare it is Health Issue
Not sure why it never has been covered but I remember Rudd gave a handout for around $4000 for dental care I think to Health Care Card Holders
I think there’s a reasonably high chance that UAP will draw disaffected Lib votes and convey a majority to Labor. Voters want to punish the Libs. This is a way to do it.
Furthermore, I think there’s no chance ON will score 4% in the marginals. They have no presence, no campaign, no cred. In WA they will be lucky to get 2%.
Any candidate recruited by Palmer would be stupid if they did not demand a sizeable amount of cash up front, preferably in a brown paper bag.
‘Not sure why it never has been covered but I remember Rudd gave a handout for around $4000 for dental care I think to Health Care Card Holders..’
Don’t believe so.
“guytaur says:
Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 11:10 pm
Laura Tingle has tweeted the Newspoll numbers don’t add up.”
Galaxy/Newspoll must have acquired Hockey’s eleventy calculator.
This poll saysLabor to win. That’s all.
On engagement, I sent out invitations to ~60 people for a work event in the week before Easter, and had more than a dozen “out of office until Monday 29 April” auto-replies. Huge numbers are not switched in to this election yet.
Mundo,
We will welcome you back with open arms in three weeks.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/28/newspoll-51-49-labor-7/comment-page-4/#comment-3147578
Palmer has been spending plenty on YouTube and Facebook. I have seen several of his ads (or at least the start of them, in the case of the YouTube video ads).
We really won’t know where those preferences end up until 18 May. Regardless while Labor is polling in the high 30’s and the Coalition remains below 40 then it will be a comfortable win to Labor . Can’t see anything changing that and we do need to give Labor a go at government.
If only we could get rid of the Liberal deadwood in the process.
I have yet to see a single Lib or Palmer social ad. I must be tagged as Labor-only.
Tingle should read William’s explanation above.
Andy Murray.
Disengaged and their minds made up.
The real question about polling is how many people just decline to do them.
So how accurate the polls are and that would be the most likely explanation for Zoid’s assertion young voters are not being counted.
The NSW polls did not record the increased votes to the Greens in seats they already held. At least from my reading as that should have shown an increased Green vote without telling us it was in those seats.